Future of Strategic Foresight Presented by: Dr. Michael Jackson Chairman: Shaping Tomorrow Achieving persistent strategic agility and resilience
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All rights reserved Changing environments Changing environment Source: Emery 1980 Unstable Simple Complex Stable
Complexity is increasing Supply chain threats Global terrorism Infrastructure damage Global pandemics Financial risk Fuel crises Technology growth Conventional and asymmetric threats
Future demand Increasing demand for systematic anticipation and preparedness from: " Governments - Military, Crime, Defence, Food, Health, Animal health, Science " Commercials - Health, Telecoms, Energy " Not-for-profits - Health, Water, Science A switch from static news gathering to dynamic intelligence reconnaissance and limited to whole system thinking and strategic foresight
Systematic foresight
Content profiling " Filtering Insights and Trends by user profile: e.g. industry, interests, expertise " Sentiment analysis e.g. fear, excitement " Narrative capture e.g. ideas " Latent Semantic Indexing e.g. concept searches Bias is essential to avoid group think but being conscious of bias from the outset reduces error and increases understanding
Automatic scanning Stakeholder scanning " News " RSS feeds " Tweets " Facebook " Paper.li " MentionMap Capabilities improving but human input still required
Modelling, gaming and simulation Structured data analytics r Visual dashboards as early warning systems Balanced scorecards Partnership approaches MMORPG s e.g. IFTF Warcraft equivalents
Predictive analytics Aims: moving from single keyword to real-time multiple meta data searches Scour the web Extract, analyze, rank Make it useful Collaboration Knowledge management Search & discovery Data integration
New business models " Extra-ordinary value added " Cloud-based rather than home grown " Open/closed collaboration " Outsourcing/partnering " Fast action/reaction " Convergence of innovation, risk and business and competitive intelligence systems " From subscription to consumption economics!!
World data/big data " Rising interest in mixing large data sets (e.g. GDP and happiness) to spot crisis points early " Massive funding for global intelligence projects " Data fusion e.g. GapMinder " Forward indicators e.g. Shock Index
Gaming & Certification
Web-based education Free " Electronic guides/books - linked to content " Webinars " On-line workshops Revenue " Privacy/Multi-licences " Virtual consultancy/mentoring " Specialist needs " Online degrees
Global collaboration " Increasing need for joined up thinking between governments, academia, NGO s, commercial organisations. " Mobile apps " All channel distribution
Global solution networks " Foresight communities " Expert solution providers - Construction, Design, Security Free sites Rapid delivery Co-creation Joint research
Sum of parts: a global futures brain Modified version of original flowchart by Joe Coates, consulting futurist Describe system to be studied Create systems map War Disaster Coup Revolutions Develop images of alternative futures Identify policy, plans and actions Discovery Inventions Explore potential for change Draw out policy implications Define desired future Identify driving forces Identify trends in driving forces Define: Scope Evaluate
Foresight methods " Integrated tools and content under user/client control Structured Analytical Techniques for Intelligence Analysis - Heuer & Pherson, 2011, CQ Press
Questions " Mike Jackson: mike.jackson@shapingtomorrow.com " Shaping Tomorrow: Thanks for listening