Why Foresight: Staying Alert to Future Opportunities MARSHA RHEA, CAE, PRESIDENT, SIGNATURE I, LLC 1
5 Reasons to Earn an A in Exploring the Future 1. Avoid ignorance: Don t be the last to know. 2. Anticipate: Spot challenges and opportunities early enough to react. 3. Analyze: Understand the potential implications. 4. Advise: Recommend smart strategy and business decisions. 5. Act: Choose where you will lead the future. 2
Changes You ve Seen, Changes You See Coming Quick Exercise to Warm Up Your Foresight Awareness 1. Pick 1 significant change you have seen in your association career. 2. List 2 3 trends and issues your board or staff team are watching now. 3. Take 5 minutes to compare your lists with your colleagues & identify 2 3 you have in common.
Think Like a Futurist: Step 1, Pattern Recognition Trends, Issues & New Developments that Affect: Us All Your Industry, Profession or Cause Most associations and nonprofits
Think like a Futurist: Step 2, Question Your Assumptions How could the future be different than the past and present? Are there alternative futures that could happen? Am I aware of the influences and biases that shape how we see the world? What do I forecast could happen?
Think like a Futurist: Step 3, Make Sense of Change Four Important Sense Making Filters 1. Your association s mission & strategic priorities 2. Incremental advances or game changers & breakthroughs 3. What s not changing and why 4. Rate of change near, mid term, long term
Foresight for Organizations Foresight A structured process for discerning, analyzing, and acting on potential futures Environmental scanning: continuous, broad and deep search for patterns of change Analysis: Making sense of how the future will affect your current situation and what your options might be Forecast: Your best assessment to guide decision making
Framework for Foresight Work Source: Thinking about the Future by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop (2015: Hinesight)
Foresight in Associations For What Purpose? Strategic Planning Risk Analysis Anticipatory Learning Innovation & Business Development 9
ASAE Foundation Supporting Your Foresight Environmental Scanning that is continuous, systematic, researched & analyzed Succinct, easy to use change driver briefs with: Forecast & supporting trends Analysis and potential implications Next steps Assessment tool to select the relevant change drivers for your association Helping you create a culture of foresight: o Tools and resources including a white paper on using foresight in associations o Education and training like the ASAE Annual Meeting Learning Lab August 13 o Collaborative. strategic conversations within the association community o And more yet to be identified and developed..stay tuned
Building a Scanning Framework STEEP: A good place to start Society Language, beliefs, values, ethics, etc. o Demographic Size, characteristics, and trends in populations (gender, age, ethnicity, migration flows, etc.) o Values Beliefs shaping how we think and act Technology Ways of manipulating the physical world (materials, machines, etc.) Science Breakthroughs and new knowledge Economy Production, exchange, and consumption of goods and services Environment Nature (air, water, land, species, etc.) Politics Collective decision making, usually in the form of government o Regulations & Standards Particularly of concern to your organization
ASAE Foundation STEPB Scanning Framework & Domain Map TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE Environment Healthcare IT & automation Science Non IT technology Energy Data analysis Social media Globalization ECONOMY Economic conditions Market conditions Emerging markets Current domain map Lobbying & advocacy POLITICS Geopolitics Activism Political shifts Government Events & networking Education & training Operations Governance Outreach Money Content & knowledge Member engagement STEPB categories Change areas Hot zones Internal association functions Information & knowledge Education SOCIETY Demography Training & development Social life Accountability Values Publishing & IP Events Work Marketing Consumer life Media Business practices BUSINESS
Create Your Own Custom Scanning Framework Improvise on the classic STEEP scanning framework Rely on the ASAE Foundation scanning framework to track trends & issues for all associations Map out your particular areas of change concern: Knowledge areas for which you are known Issues that matter to members Business questions essential to your success
Creating a Culture of Foresight: Organize Your Foresight Team Staff Champions & Scouts Member Committees Strategic Partners Futurists & Consultants
Time Savers for Foresight Research Use the ASAE Foundation Change Driver Research Read other scans: Sister associations Government Foundations Corporate partners Crowdsourcing at meetings & through social networks
Creating a Culture of Foresight: Engage Members Board Task Forces Think Tanks Surveys Focus Groups Online Forums Town Halls
Creating a Culture of Foresight: Put Foresight to Work Strategic Planning Risk Analysis Anticipatory Learning Innovation & Business Development 17
Let s Practice Foresight to Gain Strategic Intelligence Change Driver: Anticipatory Intelligence Big data, data analytics, and artificial intelligence are enabling predictive analytics that anticipate needs, opportunities, and threats in an organization s environment. The market for predictive analytics is growing rapidly, major computing companies are key players, and organizations view predictive analytics as one of the most important ways to leverage big data.
Let s Practice Foresight to Gain Strategic Intelligence Change Driver: Anticipatory Intelligence 2 Insights from Analysis Predictive analytics may help forecast demand for association products and services. Associations may be able to aggregate and analyze industry data.
Let s Practice Foresight to Gain Strategic Intelligence Change Driver: Anticipatory Intelligence 3 Next Steps Improve data integrity & management practices Acquire data analysis competency Clarify data privacy practices
Your Turn: Change Driver Analysis 1. How will this change driver affect your association? a. Your strategy and priorities/strategic plan? b. The programs and services you will offer? c. How your association operates? 2. How will this change driver affect your members? a. The business they are in or the work they do? b. Their prospects for the future? c. What they will need from your association? 3. What actions should you take today to respond to this change driver?
What Do You See on the Horizon for Associations? Social Technology & Science Economy Politics Business
Tools and Resources of Your Dreams Tell Us Co Create with Us Support the Foundation
Stay Tuned Stay in Touch Marsha Rhea, CAE, President, Signature i, LLC, mrhea@signaturei.net, 703 731 8811, www.signaturei.net ASAE Foundation, https://foundation.asaecenter.org/