Geofin Comtrade Ltd. Geojit BNP Paribas Building,10th Floor, 34/659-P, Civil Line Road, Padivattom Kochi-682 024 Kerala Phone: 91 484 2901058 Email: research@geofin.co.in customercare@geofin.co.in Geofin Research Desk, Kochi Hareesh V Head of Commodity Research Krishnaprasad NB Vinod T. P. Abraham Francis Anu V Pai MCX Member code: 40220 FMC No.: MCX/TCM/CORP/1710 NCDEX Member code : 00920 FMC No.:NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0895 NMCE Member code: CL0324 FMC No.: NMCE/TCM/CORP/0245 ACE Member code: 6192 FMC No: ACEL/TCM/CORP/0429 Disclaimer : Trading/investing in Commodity Derivatives involves considerable risk you may lose part or all of the initial investment. It is not ideal for all types of investors, and you are advised to seek professional assistance before the same. Past performance may not necessarily be repeated in the future. The news and views posted on this report is based on information which is believed to be accurate. This report is provided to enable you to make your own investment decisions and should not be construed as investment advice. The anticipatory moves mentioned in the report is purely subject to technical studies and does not take into consideration sudden currency volatility and data events. The author, directors and/or employees of Geofin Comtrade cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the content posted on this report or for decisions taken by the readers based on such information December 1, 2015 Evening Roundup A Daily Report on Bullions, Base Metal & Energy US ISM Manufacturing PMI @ 20:30 IST Day so far Markets regained optimistic momentum amid speculation that slew of feeble economic reports from China may force policy makers to introduce fresh stimulus measures in the economy. Earlier an economic report released from Asia s largest economy showed that the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index in the region declined to a three-year low of 49.6 in November from 49.8 a month earlier. Among the base metals on the LME Copper edge half percent higher, while the rest are exbiting a flattish action. On the other hand spot gold reversed initial weakness as the US dollar pulled back from an eight-month high. However gains were seen limited as market players braced for a hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve later this month. In the energy segment Crude Oil futures are exhibiting a volatile action as traders await fresh weekly data on US Crude stockpiles and refined products. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly supply report later in the day, while the US energy department (EIA) will release its periodic inventory report tomorrow.
MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES Commodity Last %Chg Open High Low Close Vol Gold 25148 0.32 25183 25218 25143 25069 1119 Silver 33683 0.61 33597 33763 33550 33480 1260 Crude Oil 2820 0.79 2808 2822 2796 2798 45773 Natural Gas 150.5 0.13 149.5 151.1 148.5 150.3 13276 Copper 309.6 0.72 309.5 310.7 308 307.4 21963 Nickel 593.4-0.08 596.2 598.9 588.5 593.9 13533 Lead 109.65-0.18 110.05 110.3 109.35 109.85 4721 Zinc 103.15-0.72 104.45 104.45 102.9 103.9 8678 Aluminium 96.75-0.26 97.55 97.8 96.7 97 3294 Gold Hedge 22930 0.55 22945 23056 22945 22920 82 Commodity Rate % Chg Gold ($/oz) 1070.4 0.43 Silver (c/oz) 14.215 1.17 Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 42.14 1.18 Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.247 0.54 LME Copper ($/T) 4597 0.54 LME Nickel ($/T) 8820 0.4 LME Lead ($/T) 1620 0.15 LME Zinc ($/T) 1546-0.64 LME Aluminium ($/T) 1461-0.45 LME Tin ($/T) 14885-0.77 Last updated at 16:00 IST Daily % change Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel Copper Natural Gas Crude Oil Silver Gold -1.0 0.0 1.0 GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) Monthly % change Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel Copper Natural Gas Crude Oil Silver Gold -20.0-10.0 0.0 INDICES UPDATES Indices Rate % Chg Dow Jones Fut** 17813.39 0.01 CAC** 4951.9 0.12 DAX** 11348.0 0.48 Shanghai* 3436.4-5.48 MSCI Asia Pacific index 131.8-1.03 Baltic Dry index 562 2.93 Dollar index 99.96 0.18 Metal LME STOCK Net change Warrant change Tonnage ratio Copper -1350 2050 13.53 Aluminium -4375 7850 43.70 Nickel -3126 3030 43.38 Zinc -2775-7300 21.49 Lead -75-1900 22.73 RATIOS Ratios Daily 5 Days Monthly 90 Days High Low High Low High Low Gold Silver ratio 74.67 74.88 74.18 75.15 71.56 79.20 70.81 Gold Crude ratio 141.79 142.45 140.21 151.91 130.50 165.36 124.85 Lead Zinc ratio 1.06 1.06 1.03 1.06 1.00 1.06 0.87 Steel Nickel ratio 26.76 26.76 25.35 28.45 23.36 28.45 22.71 Lead Aluminiratio 1.13 1.13 1.09 1.21 1.08 1.21 1.04 74.67 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold 141.79 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold 1.06 kg of Zinc is required to buy one of Lead 26.76 kg of Steel is required to buy one of Nickel 1.13 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one of Lead
EVENT IN FOCUS US ISM manufacturing will be the main data that the investors will be eying in the session ahead. While the most of the economic indicators from the US have been supporting a sanguine outlook on US economy, data from the manufacturing sector has been not so encouraging. However, today s ISM data may prove to be otherwise. An expansion is expected in November. ECONOMIC DATA Time Currency Economic Data/Events Forecast Actual Previous Monday, November 30, 2015 05:20 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT P) 1.80% 1.10% 05:20 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT P) -0.90% -0.80% 12:30 Euro Zone German Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT) 0.40% 0.00% 12:30 Euro Zone German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) 2.90% 3.40% 17:30 India GDP Q3 (YoY) 7.10% 7.00% 18:30 Euro Zone German CPI (MoM) (NOV P) 0.10% 0.00% 18:30 Euro Zone German CPI (YoY) (NOV P) 0.40% 0.30% 18:30 Euro Zone German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (NOV P) 0.10% 0.00% 18:30 Euro Zone German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (NOV P) 0.30% 0.20% 19:30 US NAPM-Milwaukee (NOV) 48 46.66 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) 54 56.2 20:30 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) 1.00% -2.30% 20:30 US Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT) 4.50% 2.50% 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (NOV) -10-12.7 Tuesday, December 1, 2015 06:30 China Manufacturing PMI (NOV) 49.9 49.8 06:30 China Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV) 53.1 07:05 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (NOV F) 52.8 07:15 China Caixin China PMI Mfg (NOV) 48.3 48.3 11:00 India RBI Rate Decision 6.75% 6.75% 14:25 Euro Zone German Unemployment Change (NOV) -5k -5k 14:25 Euro Zone German Unemployment Rate s.a. (NOV) 6.40% 6.40% 14:25 Euro Zone Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (NOV F) 52.6 52.6 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (NOV F) 52.8 52.8 15:00 Euro Zone Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. (NOV) 53.6 55.5 15:30 Euro Zone Unemployment Rate (OCT) 10.80% 10.80% 20:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI (NOV F) 52.6 52.6 20:30 US Construction Spending (MoM) (OCT) 0.60% 0.60% 20:30 US ISM Manufacturing (NOV) 50.5 50.1 20:30 US ISM s Paid (NOV) 40 39
BULLION GOLD M MCX Jan Daily GOLDM DEC5 17-08-2015-07-12-2015 (BOM) TOLAS 27,000 26,500 26,000 25,500 25,161.00 25,000 24,500 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 R3 25880 R2 25620/25790 R1 25400/25545 Turnaround 25290 S1 24930/800 S2 25670 S3 25550 s still under selling pressure without much positive bias and expect to test the downside projected objective of 24930. But rigid trades above 25290 may temporarily lift prices to 25400 region SILVER M Daily SILVERM FEB6 27-05-2015-10-12-2015 (BOM) 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 R3 36250 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 35,000 34,415.00 34,000 33,000 R2 35600 R1 35150 Turnaround 34600 S1 33800/33450 S2 32750 still need to make solid trades above 34600 convincingly to initiate fresh buying towards the upside objective of 35150 region or even more. Inability to succeed above 34600 may snatch down prices to 33800 region. S3 32200
BASE METALS COPPER MCX Feb Daily COPPER FEB6 08-07-2015-17-12-2015 (BOM) 360 350 340 330 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 320 309.40 310 300 R3 324 R2 321 R1 313/314.80.317.50 Turnaround 306.70 S1 305.20/302.30 Intraday move expect to be north bound with a scaled objective of 313 or even higher to 314.80. however in this positive bias direct fall below 306.70 may bid fresh selling towards 305.20/302.30 region. S2 301/298.50 S3 295.50 NICKEL Daily NICKEL DEC5 03-09-2015-04-01-2016 (BOM) 660 640 620 600 593.90 580 560 R3 644 R2 623/631 R1 608/614 Turnaround 600 S1 585/578 S2 565 S3 551 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 As long as 600 region caps upside prices expect to give a slippage towards the downside objective of 585/578 region. While convincing trades above 600 may entice fresh buying towards 608/614 region.
BASE METALS LEAD M Daily LEADMINI DEC5 38.2% 119.74 50.0% 117.06 61.8% 114.38 100.0% 105.7 03-09-2015-04-01-2016 (BOM) 116 114 112 110 109.50 108 106 104 R3 114.25 R2 112.60/113.30 R1 111.40/111.90 Turnaround 110.50 S1 108.70/107.20/106.80 S2 106/105.30 S3 104.80 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Current selling sentiments may stretch lower towards the immediate downside objective of 108.70 firstly followed by 107.20.Thus in this dominant selling view stalwart trades above 110.50 may lift prices towards 111.90 region. ZINC M Daily ZINCMINI DEC5 03-09-2015-04-01-2016 (BOM) 116 112 108 104 103.25 100 R3 110.80 R2 108.50/109.30 R1 105.80/106.70/107.90 Turnaround 104.10 S1 102-101.80 S2 100.30 S3 99.60 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Ensuing selling momentum may probably to extend lower towards the downside objective of 102 region or even lower in coming session. Even in this dreary picture surprise move above 104.10 may push prices higher to 105.80 region.
BASE METALS ALUMINI Daily ALUMIN MINI DEC5 03-09-2015-04-01-2016 (BOM) 105 102 99 R3 103.90 R2 102.60 R1 99.10/99.90/101.20 Turnaround 98 S1 95.80/95 S2 94.20/93.50 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 96.80 96 Weakness may extend lower towards the immediate price objective of 95.80/95 or even further down. In this bearish mood solid trades above 98 may dent our bearish sentiments.. 93 S3 92.90 CRUDE OIL MCX/NCDEX Dec Daily CRUDE OIL DEC5 ENERGY 11-08-2015-22-12-2015 (BOM) Bbl 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 R3 3080 R2 3000/3048 R1 2840/2895/2960 Turnaround 2770 S1 2725/2665 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 2,819.00 2,800 2,700 2,600 Intraday move expect to be north bound towards the upside objective of 2840/2895 sooner or later. On the flipside intraday weakness may see only below 2770 region. S2 2615/2550/2510 S3 2470
ENERGY NATURAL GAS Daily NATURALGAS DEC5 11-08-2015-22-12-2015 (BOM) MMBTU 180 170 160 150.60 140 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 130 R3 164.70/167 R2 162 R1 153.90/ 157/159.70 Turnaround 152 S1 146.50 S2 143.80 S3 141/137.50 Broad weakness may persist lower towards the downside objective of 146.50/143.80 or even lower. However palpable trades above 152 may entice fresh buying towards 153.90/157. Geofin Research Team, Kochi Phone: 91 484 290 1058/1059 91 484 3202393 Mobile: 91 9388 465 650 Email: research@geofin.co.in Hareesh V Head of Commodity Research hareesh_v@geofin.co.in Krishnaprasad NB krishnaprasad_nb@geofin.co.in Vinod T. P. vinod_tp@geofin.co.in Abraham Francis abraham@geofin.co.in Anu V Pai anu_vp@geofin.co.in Vishidha Vijayakumar vishidha_v@geofin.co.in This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Geofin Comtrade Ltd.