Feb 22. 2012 Korean Space Weather Center National Radio Research Agency Ⅰ. Korean Space Weather Center Ⅱ. Space Weather in Korea Ⅲ. Vision & Goal in 24 th Solar Cycle [1] Forecasting & Warning Service [2] Enhancement of Service Accuracy [3] International Cooperation 2 1
I - 1. KCC Organization Chart (2008 ~ Now) Commission Planning and Coordination Office B&C Convergence Policy Office Broadcasting Policy Bureau Communications Policy Bureau Consumer Protection Bureau Network Policy Bureau General Service Division Radio Resource Development Div. Radio Environment ResearchDiv. Regulation Research Division Certification Division Information Management Team General Service Division Icheon Branch Institute Korean Space Weather Center Radio Management Division Radio Protection Division Radio Planning Division Radio Operation Division Regional Radio Management Office (12 Branches around nation) Satellite Radio Monitoring Center Ø~ 187 staff 3 4 2
Outline Place : 198-6 Gwideok-ro, Hallim-eup, Jeju-si, Jeju-do, R.O.Korea Land Area: 58,711 m2, Building Area : 3,810 m2 History 66. 02. 05 : Start of Ionosphere Observation Radio Research LAB. (RRL)[ACT 61, Presidential decree 2397] 94. 10. 15 : Start of Space Environment Res. in RRL Icheon Br. 11. 08. 19 : Authorization KSWC organization under KCC 11. 11. 16 : Opening ceremony of the KSWC Organization Director Planning Division R & D Division Forecast Division Observation Division 5 Icheon(1992~2011) Anyang(1966~2009) 6 3
Dec 29, 2010 7 Since Feb. 1966 & Aug. 2011 4
Observation Ø 1967 : Ionosphere observation (~NZ54, IPS42, DGS256, DPS4, Anyang, Icheon) Ø 1971 : Geomagnetic field observation(anyang) Ø 1985 : Sunspot optical observation manually (terminated at 2000) (Anyang) Ø 1995 : Solar Radio Spectrograph(30~2500MHz) (Icheon) Ø 1996,97 : Geomagnetic field observing Network(3 site) (Icheon, Yongin, Jeju) Ø 2006 : F10.7cm Solar Flux Monitor(Icheon) Ø 2007,08,09 : Ionosphere observing Network, TEC Monitoring Network Service Ø 1967 : Prediction service for International Long Line Telecommunications Ø 1994 : URSIGRAM Service and International e-mail exchange of Ionospheric data Ø 1998 : Internet Space Environment Web Service (http://solaradio.rrl.go.kr) Ø 2005 : Internet ionospheric real time data & HF Monthly prediction services Ø 2008 : SMS alert & Warning services Ø 2011 : Internet Service of Space Weather in Korea (http:// spaceweather.go.kr) 9 II 2. Ground Observation for SWx in KWSC Wideband Solar Radio Flux & Interference Monitor System(RIMS) Flare CME Solar Wind Solar Radio Spectrograph Magnetometer Network(3) 2.8GHz Solar Flux 10 Solar Wind Interplanetary Scintillation(IPS) L1, ACE Satellite Ionosonde & TEC Network(2) 5
11 12 6
13 Observation Products & Services Customers Ionosondes & TEC system Magenetometers Ionospheric Condition Korean K-index Satellite Space Based Ground Based Solar Radio Spectrograph 2.8GHz solar flux antenna Solar Wind Antenna (IPS) Wideband Solar Radio noise ANT. Receiving station of the ACE-satellite Solar flare Type Sun Activity cycle Solar Radio Burst, CME Solar Radiation Warning Geomagnetic Storm WARN More Communication Link Inter-Agencies International cooperation Web Mail SMS Comm. Defense Aviation Research 14 7
15 Since Aug. 2011 8
Radio Blackout HF communication Blackout GNSS Error Radio Interference Solar Radiation Polar-route, Aviation, Satellite Controller Error & damage Geomagnetic Storm GNSS Error, Radio & Radar Interference Damage to Power grid ionosphere Absorption of short wave Satellite signal with fading scintillation Usual Solar flare R3 warning (sep. 24,2011) àhf communication blackout(10-min) (Korean-peninsula) KSWC is observing the HF Radio environment in the South- Korea S1 warning (June.7,2011) à Avoiding polar-route (Korean-Air) G4 warning( sep. 26,2011) à Stop using the WAAS service (FAA) WAAS(Wide Area Augmentation System) Correction of the GPS positional information 17 Vision Safety Communications & Power. from Space Weather Threats Goal Safety & Reliability of the SWx Forecasting Forecasting service Accuracy of the forecast Cooperation Provide best forecasting service Operation forecasting based on reliability SWx results Expansion the number of related agency with RWC R&D of Prediction models R&D of Ground & Satellite observation equipments R&D Forecast service focus on consumers and customs Building counteract to SWx threat Strengthen linkage among academies & Research Organizations Strong Coupled of international cooperation within SWx 18 9
ü Expansion of the Space Weather Forecasting and Warning Service R S G Standardization of Warning standard Radiation (X-ray) Solar particle (proton) Geomagn etic flux (Kp index) Arrived time 8 min 15min - few hours 2~3 days duratio n 1-2 hours few days few days Damage(Example) HF communication blackout GPS Error Radar interference HF communication blackout, Satellite damage, Exposed to Radiation Damage to power grid Counter-ACT to warning class 1 2 3 4 5 Homepage SMS (56 agencies,332 person) Telephone (9 agencies) Press release Forecasting service Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon 3-day forecasting(3 times a week) <Example> classification Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Probability of R (M/X) Probability of S (Proton) Probability of G (K index) R2: 40% R3: 5% R2: 20% R3: 5% R2: 10% R3: 1% S1: 1% S1: 1% S1: 1% G2: 60% G3: 10% G2: 30% G3: 5% G2: 5% G3: 1% 27-day forecasting(once a week) - Using 27-day Rotation of the Sun, Activities index of the Sun (sunspotindex, F10.7cm)& Geomagnetic storm(k index) 19 ü 2 Working types : Regular & Emergency (at Solar Events) Forecasting room Operating plan in 2012 Regular Process - 1- main & 1-assistance forecasting staff - observation and analysis of S.W & Information exchange of ISES - 3-day forecast, 27-day forecast - emergency stand-by(~1 hours) Emergency (At Solar Event) - Counteract by emergency plan (notice Report press release) - keep a 24 hours watch on the S.W Forecasting Room : Dec, 15, 2011 Human resources : Forecasting team 4 + Korea Air Force 2 (1 st Half, 2012) After 2013 expand operating time of the F.C.R - secure the forecasting staffs - working around the clock 20 10
ü Minimizing the damage from the SWx ü National Representative of the SWx forecasting service Increasing number of consumer (SMS service) Expansion the forecasting area 400 300 200 100 15 10 5 0 0 agencie s 30 17 10.Dec 11.Mar 11.Jun 11.Sep 11.Oct Alert Trends (>= 3 rd Scale) 4th scale 3rd scale 2 2 10 2010 2011 56 332 Investigating SWx-related agencies & leading the SWx forecasting member Investigate agencies related-swx - Provide the forecast and warning service to consumer Taking place consumer conferences - collect diverse opinions & needs (like SWPC annual conference annually) 21 ü To forecasting accuracy, it is essential that Prediction Services validate best products among Numerical Analysis model for Space Weather. Validation of Pred. models Interplanetary forecasting model - WSA-ENLIL-cone model (predict the arrival time of solar wind on the earth) Geomagnetic field forecasting model - MHD model (predict the geomagnetic field levels) Earth s Ionosphere forecasting model - CTIPe, IRI 2007, REC-533 model (the variation of ionosphere by numerical analysis) Co-R&D of the models Cooperation of the forecasting model from RWC countries (Short term) - MOU with SWPC(2009, 2011) - MOU with RWCs(IPS,ICT,SIDC,NPL ) Solar wind, Geomagnetic storm, TID models (Long term) - Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute(ETRI) è Communication - Korea Astronomy & Space science Institute(KASI) è Solar Wind & Flares - Korea Aerospace Research Institute(KARI) è Satellite & Aviation - Academics(KHU, KAIST, CNU, CBU etc) è Data Analysis & R&D Models 22 11
ü Extended of Observation power based with Ground and Satellite systems ü International Data Exchange of Sharing & Supplement as Data Hub and Data center of Space Weather(SWx) Extended of Observation Systems International Exchange of data Bench-marking the international system for Cooperation. Ground system based with Radio - examples: VLF antenna, MF, HF, VHF Radar Riometer, Scintillation, etc Cooperation with international agency -US(NOAA) : Ace satellite data -RRA will join the next satellite project Cooperation with Korean institutes - KASI & KIGMR(Korea Institute of Geo-science and mineral resources) : Studies on geomagnetic field, TEC 23 üprovision the adaptive forecasting service for users Present Forecasting in Earth ~ 2015 Adaptive Forecasting service to users Solar activity Alert, warning (example) consumer Main service Custom alert, warning (example) Solar radio burst Warning Short Wave Fade Out for transmission Military HF communication As the ionosphere disturbances in Jeju-island, 30min HF communication disruptions will be, the optimum frequency is 21.5MHz.. High-energy particle Coronal mass ejection(cme) Watch ionosphere disturbances and satellite operations(8min~few hours) Watch the geomagnetic storm (next few days) Airline Satellite operating agencies Navigation Using polar routes, Satellite communications Satellite broadcasting Satellites attitude control GNSS, Aviation Possibility of radiation exposure to aircraft using polar route.cause by geomagnetic storm. Use bypass route for the next 25 hours The signal loss.during 1 hour Do not change the satellite attitude control GPS errors will be happen, so please be careful. 24 12
2Counter-ACT ü Reinforcement the cooperation system by taking opinions and needs from various area Role Sharing & Cooperation university KHU CBU, CNU KAIST Taking opinion KSWC Forecasting & Warning Forecast model Sharing Observation data institute ETRI KASI, KARI KERI Research group of S.W Verifying forecast model 1Forecasting & Warning Sharing counter-act Systematic support to related agencies Related agencies Army Satellite (KT,KMA) Aviation Communication Navigation Power Grid üsharing damage case Action, Restoration, Report üsharing Countermeasure üsharing experience Taking place the SWx conference, AOSWA for users(every year) 25 ICTSW(2011) ITU ICAO IMO WMO Ministry of L.T.M. Affair NOAA(2009, 2011) SWPC KMA ETRI KAF RRA NICT(1971,2000) KASI(2011) IPS(1994) KAIST SaTRec ISES(2011) AOSWA(2011) SIDC More NPL, NRCAN more 26 13
27 III - 3. Activity of International Organization ITU-R SG7,SG3 ICTSW of WMO 14
Q&A 29 15