The Robotics Market Has Arrived! What Challenges and Opportunities Exist? Perspectives from Asia, the US and Europe Moderator Asian Perspective International Perspective US Perspective Eugene Demaitre Georg Stieler Anthony Quinn Doug Olson Senior Editor Robotics Business Review Managing Director, Asia STM Stieler Senior Standards Advisor Office of Standards and Investment Policy President/Founder Harmonic Drive LLC
The Robotics Market Has Arrived! What Challenges and Opportunities Exist? Percepectives from Asia, The U.S., and Europe Doug Olson Harmonic Drive LLC President / CEO
Robotics & Automation in North America North American Robotics Market Sets New First Quarter Shipment Record in 2018 Strongest First Quarter on Record with $507 Million in Shipments Source: Robotic Industries Association Worldwide forecast of warehousing and logistics robot unit shipments will increase to 620,000 units annually by 2021.
What s Driving Demand for Robots and Automation Market Needs And Advancements in Robot Technology Has Driven Robot Demand Large Demand For Use Of Robots Coming From Small And Medium Enterprises Growth in the adoption rate for the use of robotics is driven by: There exists a greater need to incorporate automation to increase productivity to remain competitive Technical advanced capabilities of robots offers more utility The ability to deploy robots in a wider range of applications There is an increased adoption rate in the use of robots by Small and Medium Enterprises SMEs make up 99% of US businesses (Source US Censes Bureau)
What s Driving Demand for Robots and Automation Booming Economy Reshoring Of Manufacturing Labor Shortages Are Driving The Need For Automation United States Manufacturing Production US manufacturing output rose 3.1 percent year-on-year in August 2018, following a 2.6 percent advance in July. It was the sharpest increase in manufacturing production since June 2012.
Opportunities for Robotics and Automation Opportunities for Robot and Automation End Users Opportunities for Robot Manufacturers & System Integrators End Users of Robots and Automation Implementation of flexible automation Increased productivity Quick RO Delegate mundane / time consuming tasks to robots / automation Promote the people within your organization Tax Incentives (100% Bonus Depreciation though 2022) Robot Manufacturers & System Integrators Capitalize on the multitude of opportunities from End Users Innovative flexible automation solutions Increased your capabilities and capacity to respond to market demands Provide exceptional support and service
Automation is the Great Equalizer Employee Acceptance of Automation General Comments Automation is the Great Equalizer The cost to run a robotic work cell is the same in the US as it is anywhere else in the world! Flexibility of cobots allow ROI Lost business opportunity due to unavailable labor force undermines the growth of your business AUTOMATE! Employee Acceptance of Automation Despite what is read in the press- Acceptance of robots in the work force is generally positive Involve your employees Change is bad when it happens to you Change is good when you make it happen Promote employees in your company
Current robotics trends in China and Europe Georg Stieler, Managing Director China georg@stieler.co
China has become the world s largest robotics market since 2013, might be responsible for 40% of global robot sales by 2020 2009 Total Sales: 60,000 units 2013 Total Sales: 178,132 units 2017 Total Sales: 387,000 units 2020E Total Sales: 521,000 units Europe 35% America 15% China 9% Asia & Australia (excl. China) 41% Europe 25% America 17% China 21% Asia & Australia (excl. China) 37% Europe 17% America 13% Others 2% China 36% Asia & Australia (excl. China) 32% Europe 16% America 14% Others 2% China 40% Asia & Australia (excl. China) 28% Source: IFR
Sales of industrial robots in China grew 58.1% in 2017 SALES OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS IN CHINA SINCE 2013 ( 000 Units) +58.1% 141 37 +56.7% 58 +21.2% 70 +26.8% 89 In 2017, 141,000 units industrial robots were sold in China. Sales were 58.1% higher than in 2016. Both sales and YOY growth reached a new all-time high. Source: CRIA 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3C became the most important sales industry Sales of industrial robots in China by industry in 2016 and 2017 3C +62.6% Automotive +61.1% Other Mechanical & metal Rubber & plastic +6.0% +27.1% +116.2% 2016 2017 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Source: CRIA
Strong dependence on foreign know-how Market share of foreign and domestic robot suppliers from 2014 to 2017 Foreign Domestic 2017 2016 73.2% 67.3% 26.8% 32.7% Foreign suppliers installed 103,191 units, an increase by 71.9%, driven by demand for high-end robots. 2015 2014 68.3% 70.8% 31.7% 29.2% Domestic suppliers installed 37,825 units, 29.8% higher than 2016. Their market share fell to 26.8%, for the first time since 2012. Source: CRIA
CRIA members expect >20% growth in 2018, 5-10% 2019-2021 Expected annual sales growth 2018 >+20% >+10% to +20% >+5% to +10% >+1% to +5% Stagnation 6.5% 9.7% 16.1% 29.0% 38.7% Expected annual sales growth 2019-2021 >+20% 29.0% >+10% to +20% 22.6% >+5% to to +10% +10% 32.3% >+1% to +5% 16.1% Source: CRIA
China surpassed the US in attracting Venture Capital in Q2 2018, Europe far behind REPORTED GLOBAL VC VOLUME IN Q2 2018 [CATEGORY NAME], [CATEGORY [VALUE]% NAME], [VALUE]% [CATEGORY NAME], [VALUE]% [CATEGORY NAME], [VALUE]% [CATEGORY NAME], [VALUE]% [CATEGORY NAME], [VALUE]% China s digital economy has been enormously successful during the last years, generating huge profits, which are currently being reinvested VC firms in China are more deal brokers to large enterprises and the government, than classical investment funds First signs of overheating and overinvestment, boom cycle might end like in classical industries Sources: Crunchbase, own estimations
Challenges for robotics and automation companies in China Fierce competition, market distortions through subsidies Low skill levels: Training employees and education customers requires investment Foreign firms are not entering a level playing field Political and macroeconomic risks
Units (thousands) Germany is the major market for robotics and automation in Europe Estimated yearly shipments of Multipurpose Industrial Robots 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Germany Italy Spain France UK CEE 2019 2015 Source: IFR
Strengths of the German robotics ecosystem Proven engineering tradition, a leader in technology development, highly diversified industrial base Automotive industry leading client sector for robotics in Germany, electric and hybrid drive technologies require new processes and equipment Dual vocational training system, network of universities highly active in mechanical engineering Competitive labor costs Particular chances in collaborative robots, machine vision, AI
Challenges for robotics and automation companies in Europe Strict regulatory environment (e.g. GDPR, trade unions) Fears and skepticism concerning new technologies Decentralized political decisions, still no single European market Relatively small investments, low M&A activity, risk-averse No coherent long term vision
HOW TO KEEP THINGS BALANCED? Anthony Rayvon Quinn Senior Standards Advisor International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce Anthony.Quinn@trade.gov
How to Balance Regulation, Innovation, and Litigation REGULATION LITIGATION INNOVATION
Common Used Abbreviations & Acronyms Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) Networking and Information Technology Research and Development (NITRD) Department of Defense (DOD) National Science Foundation (NSF) Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Health and Human Services (HHS) Robotics Industry Association (RIA) National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) European Union (EU) General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)