MARKETBEAT THE DNA OF REAL ESTATE EUROPE A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication Q2 2015 ICE RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR) Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 All Countries 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% Western Europe 0.2% 1.3% 2.4% Eastern Europe 1.0% -0.4% -7.2% Central Europe -1.2% -0.1% -0.1% EU Countries 0.1% 1.2% 2.3% EMU Countries -0.2% 0.6% 1.6% 1 1 7.5% 1 2.5% -2.5% - - West (Left) CEE (Left) -7.5% EU (Left) EMU (Left) -1 East (Right) -1-1 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 HIGH STREET AIL RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR) Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 All Countries 4.5% 2.4% -1.0% Western Europe 3.9% 2.0% 3.3% Eastern Europe 6.9% 3.8% -17.3% Central Europe -1.6% 0.9% EU Countries 3.3% 1.8% 3.2% EMU Countries 3.4% 1.8% 3.2% 1 - -1-1 West (Left) EU (Left) East (Right) CEE (Left) EMU (Left) Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 1 1 - -1-1 -2 LOGISTICS RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR) Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 All Countries 0.7% 0.2% -3.9% Western Europe 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% Eastern Europe 0.3% -2.4% -22.5% Central Europe -3.1% -1.1% EU Countries 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% EMU Countries 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 3.0% 1 1.5% -1.5% - -3.0% -1-4.5% -1-6.0% West (Left) CEE (Left) -2-7.5% EU (Left) EMU (Left) -2-9.0% East (Right) -3 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 ALL SECTOR YIELD AGGREGATES AND 10 YR MOVEMENTS Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 All Countries 6.54% 6.39% 6.21% Western Europe 5.90% 5.68% 5.31% Eastern Europe 9.21% 9.25% 9.81% Central Europe 7.61% 7.50% 7.45% EU Countries 6.11% 5.90% 5.55% 15.00% 12.00% 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% 10 yr yield range Current yield level EMU Countries 6.14% 5.94% 5.56% Notes: Western Europe countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom Eastern Europe countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine Central Europe countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia EU countries: corresponds to the members of the European Union EMU countries: corresponds to the members of the euro zone ALL WEST EAST CEE EU EMU
KEY EUROPEAN ICES IN FOCUS PRIME RENTS PRIME YIELDS COUNTRY CITY RENT FREQUENCY LOCAL MEASURE SQ.M/YR US$ SQ.FT/YR GROWTH CURRENT VALUES QUARTERLY Austria Vienna sq.m/mth 25.25 303 $31.4 1.0% 4.65% -5 bp -10 bp Belgium Brussels sq.m/yr 265 265 $27.4-3.6% 6.00% -10 bp -25 bp Bulgaria Sofia sq.m/mth 12.50 150 $15.5 8.75% -25 bp -50 bp Czech Republic Prague sq.m/mth 19.50 234 $24.2 6.00% 0 bp -25 bp Denmark Copenhagen sq.m/yr Dkr1,800 241 $25.0 5.00% 0 bp 0 bp Finland Helsinki sq.m/mth 33.00 396 $41.0 1.5% 5.00% 0 bp -25 bp France Paris sq.m/yr 750 750 $77.6 3.75% 0 bp -25 bp Germany Berlin sq.m/mth 22.50 270 $27.9 2.3% 4.25% -25 bp -25 bp Germany Frankfurt sq.m/mth 37.00 444 $46.0 4.40% -10 bp -35 bp Germany Hamburg sq.m/mth 24.50 294 $30.4 2.1% 4.25% 0 bp -25 bp Germany Munich sq.m/mth 33.50 402 $41.6 3.1% 3.85% 0 bp -15 bp Germany Dusseldorf sq.m/mth 26.00 312 $32.3-5.5% 4.50% -10 bp -10 bp Greece Athens sq.m/mth 19.00 228 $23.6 8.30% 0 bp -50 bp Hungary Budapest sq.m/mth 21.00 252 $26.1 7.25% 0 bp -25 bp Ireland Dublin sq.m/yr 560 560 $57.9 35.1% 4.25% -25 bp -65 bp Italy Rome sq.m/yr 400 400 $41.4-4.8% 4.75% -25 bp -25 bp Italy Milan sq.m/yr 490 490 $50.7 3.2% 4.75% 0 bp -25 bp Luxembourg Luxembourg City sq.m/mth 45.00 540 $55.9 5.10% -10 bp -10 bp Macedonia Skopje sq.m/mth 14.00 168 $17.4 3.7% 9.25% 0 bp 0 bp The Netherlands Amsterdam sq.m/yr 370 370 $38.3 5.70% -30 bp -55 bp Norway Oslo sq.m/yr Nkr4,800 548 $56.7 2.1% 4.40% -10 bp -60 bp Poland Warsaw sq.m/mth 24.75 297 $30.7-1.0% 6.25% 0 bp 25 bp Portugal Lisbon sq.m/mth 18.50 222 $23.0-2.6% 5.50% -50 bp -100 bp Romania Bucharest sq.m/mth 19.00 228 $23.6 7.75% 0 bp -75 bp Russia Moscow sq.m/yr $1,000 898 $92.9-9.1% 11.00% 0 bp 225 bp Slovakia Bratislava sq.m/mth 15.00 180 $18.6 7.25% 0 bp 0 bp Spain Madrid sq.m/mth 26.50 318 $32.9 6.0% 4.50% -25 bp -100 bp Spain Barcelona sq.m/mth 19.00 228 $23.6 7.0% 4.75% -25 bp -100 bp Sweden Stockholm sq.m/yr Skr5,200 562 $58.2 9.5% 4.00% -25 bp -50 bp Switzerland Zurich sq.m/yr Sfr750 720 $74.6 3.85% 0 bp 5 bp Switzerland Geneva sq.m/yr Sfr800 768 $79.5 4.25% 0 bp 0 bp Turkey Istanbul sq.m/mth $45.00 485 $50.2 6.80% 0 bp -20 bp Ukraine Kiev sq.m/yr $300 269 $27.9-28.6% 13.50% 0 bp 100 bp United Kingdom London sq.ft/yr 125.00 1,899 $196.6 8.7% 3.50% 0 bp 0 bp United Kingdom Manchester sq.ft/yr 32.00 486 $50.3 3.2% 5.00% 0 bp -50 bp United Kingdom Birmingham sq.ft/yr 30.00 456 $47.2 9.1% 5.00% 0 bp -50 bp United Kingdom Edinburgh sq.ft/yr 30.00 456 $47.2 1.7% 5.50% 0 bp -25 bp United Kingdom Glasgow sq.ft/yr 29.00 441 $45.6 3.6% 5.50% 0 bp -25 bp Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees. To convert local rents to euros, exchange rates applicable at the last day of the quarter are used.
KEY EUROPEAN HIGH STREETS IN FOCUS PRIME RENTS PRIME YIELDS COUNTRY CITY RENT LOCAL US$ CURRENT QUARTERLY FREQUENCY MEASURE SQ.M/YR SQ.FT/YR GROWTH VALUES Austria Vienna sq.m/mth 300 3,600 $373 4.10% 0 bp 0 bp Belgium Brussels sq.m/yr 1,750 1,750 $181 4.00% -15 bp -35 bp Bulgaria Sofia sq.m/mth 44 528 $54.7 8.75% 0 bp -50 bp Czech Republic Prague sq.m/mth 190 2,280 $236 2.7% 4.90% 0 bp -10 bp Denmark Copenhagen sq.m/yr Dkr18,000 2,413 $250 1.4% 3.75% -25 bp -75 bp Finland Helsinki sq.m/mth 164 1,968 $204 2.5% 5.00% 0 bp 0 bp France Paris sq.m/yr 18,000 13,255 $1,372 3.00% -25 bp -50 bp Germany Berlin sq.m/mth 305 3,660 $379 3.4% 4.00% -10 bp -40 bp Germany Frankfurt sq.m/mth 315 3,780 $391 1.6% 3.90% -10 bp -30 bp Germany Hamburg sq.m/mth 310 3,720 $385 1.6% 4.00% -10 bp -15 bp Germany Munich sq.m/mth 370 4,440 $460 1.4% 3.40% -10 bp -10 bp Germany Dusseldorf sq.m/mth 275 3,300 $342 4.00% -10 bp -25 bp Greece Athens sq.m/mth 180 2,160 $224 9.1% 7.00% 0 bp 0 bp Hungary Budapest sq.m/mth 95 1,140 $118 6.75% 0 bp 0 bp Ireland Dublin sq.m/yr 5,500 3,091 $320 27.9% 3.90% -10 bp -85 bp Italy Rome sq.m/yr 9,500 9,500 $983 26.7% 4.00% 0 bp -75 bp Italy Milan sq.m/yr 10,000 10,000 $1,035 2 4.00% 0 bp -75 bp Luxembourg Luxembourg City sq.m/mth 125 1,500 $155 4.75% 0 bp -25 bp Macedonia Skopje sq.m/mth 30 360 $37-14.3% 9.25% 0 bp 0 bp The Netherlands Amsterdam sq.m/yr 2,900 2,900 $300 4.10% 0 bp -40 bp Norway Oslo sq.m/yr Nkr25,000 2,852 $295 4.50% 0 bp -25 bp Poland Warsaw sq.m/mth 85 1,020 $106 7.00% -25 bp -50 bp Portugal Lisbon sq.m/mth 98 1,170 $121 5.4% 5.25% -50 bp -100 bp Romania Bucharest sq.m/mth 45 540 $55.9-1 9.00% 0 bp -25 bp Russia Moscow sq.m/yr $4,250 3,814 $395-29.2% 12.50% 0 bp 50 bp Slovakia Bratislava sq.m/mth 40 480 $49.7 7.50% 0 bp 0 bp Spain Madrid sq.m/mth 245 2,940 $304 2.1% 4.00% -25 bp -65 bp Spain Barcelona sq.m/mth 270 3,240 $335 1.9% 4.00% -25 bp -65 bp Sweden Stockholm sq.m/yr Skr14,900 1,612 $167 4.00% -25 bp -50 bp Switzerland Zurich sq.m/yr Sfr9,000 8,643 $895 3.50% 0 bp -30 bp Switzerland Geneva sq.m/yr Sfr4,000 3,841 $398 4.25% 0 bp 0 bp Turkey Istanbul sq.m/mth $280 3,016 $312 5.80% 0 bp 0 bp Ukraine Kiev sq.m/yr $1,800 1,616 $167-36.2% 13.50% 0 bp 100 bp United Kingdom London sq.ft/yr 1,400 12,762 $1,321 12.0% 2.25% -25 bp -25 bp United Kingdom Manchester sq.ft/yr 260 2,015 $209 4.0% 5.25% 0 bp -25 bp United Kingdom Birmingham sq.ft/yr 225 1,743 $180 5.50% 0 bp 0 bp United Kingdom Edinburgh sq.ft/yr 200 2,089 $216 5.3% 5.00% 0 bp 0 bp United Kingdom Glasgow sq.ft/yr 260 2,716 $281 2.0% 4.75% 0 bp -25 bp Rents in France, Ireland and the UK relate to Zone A. To convert local rents to euros, exchange rates applicable at the last day of the quarter are used. Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees.
KEY EUROPEAN LOGISTICS IN FOCUS PRIME RENTS COUNTRY CITY RENT FREQUENCY LOCAL MEASURE SQ.M/YR US$ SQ.FT/YR GROWTH PRIME YIELDS CURRENT VALUES QUARTERLY Austria Vienna sq.m/mth 4.75 57 $5.90 7.25% 0 bp 0 bp Belgium Brussels sq.m/yr 47 47 $4.87 6.90% -10 bp -10 bp Bulgaria Sofia sq.m/mth 3.75 45 $4.66 7.1% 11.25% 0 bp -50 bp Czech Republic Prague sq.m/mth 3.85 46 $4.78 1.3% 7.00% 0 bp -50 bp Denmark Copenhagen sq.m/yr Dkr500 67 $6.94 7.50% 0 bp 0 bp Finland Helsinki sq.m/mth 7.50 90 $9.32 7.25% 0 bp -25 bp France Paris sq.m/yr 55 55 $5.69 5.8% 6.50% -25 bp -50 bp Germany Berlin sq.m/mth 5.90 71 $7.33 1.7% 6.25% -45 bp -75 bp Germany Frankfurt sq.m/mth 6.95 83 $8.63 6.05% -20 bp -45 bp Germany Hamburg sq.m/mth 5.90 71 $7.33 1.7% 6.20% -10 bp -30 bp Germany Munich sq.m/mth 7.00 84 $8.69 6.00% -25 bp -50 bp Germany Dusseldorf sq.m/mth 5.70 68 $7.08 6.25% -10 bp -35 bp Greece Athens sq.m/mth 4.00 48 $4.97 11.00% 0 bp 0 bp Hungary Budapest sq.m/mth 3.50 42 $4.35 2.9% 9.00% 0 bp -25 bp Ireland Dublin sq.m/yr 74 74 $7.66 5.7% 6.00% -15 bp -100 bp Italy Rome sq.m/yr 55 55 $5.69 8.00% 0 bp 0 bp Italy Milan sq.m/yr 51 51 $5.28-3.8% 7.50% 0 bp -25 bp Luxembourg Luxembourg City sq.m/mth 8.00 96 $9.94 14.3% 8.00% 0 bp -50 bp Macedonia Skopje sq.m/mth 2.50 30 $3.11-16.7% 13.00% 0 bp 0 bp The Netherlands Amsterdam (Schiphol) sq.m/yr 88 88 $9.11 0.6% 6.75% 0 bp -85 bp Norway Oslo sq.m/yr Nkr1,200 137 $14.17 4.3% 5.75% -25 bp -75 bp Poland Warsaw sq.m/mth 5.50 66 $6.83 7.50% 0 bp 0 bp Portugal Lisbon sq.m/mth 3.50 42 $4.35-6.7% 7.00% -50 bp -175 bp Romania Bucharest sq.m/mth 3.20 38 $3.97 9.75% 0 bp 0 bp Russia Moscow sq.m/yr $70 63 $6.50-46.2% 13.00% 0 bp 175 bp Slovakia Bratislava sq.m/mth 3.60 43 $4.47 8.50% 0 bp 0 bp Spain Madrid sq.m/mth 5.25 63 $6.52 7.00% 0 bp -100 bp Spain Barcelona sq.m/mth 5.00 60 $6.21 7.25% 0 bp -75 bp Sweden Stockholm sq.m/yr Skr1,050 114 $11.76 6.25% 0 bp -25 bp Switzerland Zurich sq.m/yr Sfr145 139 $14.41 5.60% 0 bp 0 bp Switzerland Geneva sq.m/yr Sfr180 173 $17.89 6.00% 0 bp 0 bp Turkey Istanbul sq.m/mth $7.00 75 $7.80-9.1% 9.00% 0 bp 0 bp Ukraine Kiev sq.m/yr $60 54 $5.57-16.7% 14.00% 0 bp 150 bp United Kingdom London sq.ft/yr 13.25 201 $20.84 3.9% 4.50% -25 bp -75 bp United Kingdom Manchester sq.ft/yr 5.75 87 $9.04 5.25% -25 bp -75 bp United Kingdom Birmingham sq.ft/yr 6.35 96 $9.99 10.4% 5.25% -25 bp -75 bp United Kingdom Edinburgh sq.ft/yr 7.50 114 $11.79 3.4% 6.00% 0 bp -225 bp United Kingdom Glasgow sq.ft/yr 6.25 95 $9.83 7.00% 0 bp -100 bp Yields marked in red are calculated on a net basis to include transfer costs, tax and legal fees. To convert local rents to euros, exchange rates applicable at the last day of the quarter are used.
TOP GROWTH MARKETS IN Q2 2015 ICES RENTAL GROWTH YIELD COMPRESSION CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH Cork (Lapps Quay) Barcelona (Decentralised) Dublin (2/4 District) Moscow (Central) Ljubljana (Vic-Rudnik) Rotterdam (Town) Copenhagen (Norrebro Milan (CBD) London (West End) Bratislava (Inner City) Amsterdam (Schiphol Paris (Boucle de Seine) Berlin (Decentralised) Lisbon (Zone 1) Oporto (Ave. da Boavista) Sofia (Non-CBD) Ljubljana (City Center) Maastricht Tallinn (Non-CBD) Stockholm (Normalmstorg) Cork (Lapps Quay) Barcelona (Decentralised) Dublin (2/4 District) Paris (Boucle de Seine) Ljubljana (Vic-Rudnik) Lisbon (Zone 5) Stockholm (Decentralised) Amsterdam (Diemen) Madrid (CBD) Moscow (Central) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -1.00-0.80-0.60-0.40-0.20 0.00 Q/Q basis point change 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% HIGH STREET SHOPS RENTAL GROWTH YIELD COMPRESSION CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH Dublin (Grafton Street) Ljubljana (Stari trg) Oporto (Baixa) Barcelona (Diagonal) Limerick (O'Connell St) Lisbon (Baixa) Paris (Fbg St-Honoré) London (West End) Athens (Chaimanta) Milan (Via Sant Andrea) Barcelona (Diagonal) Madrid (Princesa) Paris (Haussmann) Cannes (La Croisette) Lisbon (Av da Liberdade) Oporto (Baixa) Ljubljana (Slovenska ulica) Bern (Spital-/Marktgasse) Zurich (Bahnhofstrasse) Luzern (Weggisgasse) Barcelona (Diagonal) Dublin (Grafton Street) Oporto (Baixa) London (West End) Ljubljana (Slovenska ulica) Lisbon (Baixa) Paris (Vendôme/Paix) Madrid (Goya) Limerick (O'Connell St) Cannes (La Croisette) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% -1.00-0.80-0.60-0.40-0.20 0.00 Q/Q basis point change 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% LOGISTICS RENTAL GROWTH YIELD COMPRESSION CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH Ljubljana Belfast Newcastle Birmingham Dublin Madrid Lille Edinburgh Antwerp London (Heathrow) Marseille Lisbon Oporto Tallinn Berlin London (Heathrow) Paris Manchester Munich Oslo Ljubljana Birmingham Newcastle Marseille Dublin Belfast London (Heathrow) Berlin Lisbon Tallinn 0% 5% 10% 15% -0.60-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.10 0.00 Q/Q basis poin change 0% 5% 10% 15% The above charts represent the top 10 growth locations of all monitored areas in Europe. If several locations are monitored within a city, the best performing submarket will be represented.
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