Backcasting How to design a sustainable future

Backcasting How to design a sustainable future Oskar Englund 2014 UPC-STD seminar Vilanova i la Geltrú

About me Academic background (Chalmers UT) MSc, Automation and Mechatronics Eng. MSc, Industrial Ecology LicEng, Physical Resource Theory Currently PhD candidate in Physical Resource Theory, specializing in Bioenergy and Land-use

On a personal level

Part 1 BACKGROUND

Double challenge Resources Needs

Land is scarce

Double challenge Resources Needs

Declining resources Sustainable resource supply?? Increasing demand Paradigm shifts Lowered or replaced demand

We need to define a future sustainable state and find out how to get there However, paradigm shifts don t come easy We need to break free from existing structures and lock-ins and look at the challenge from a systems perspective

Systems perspective Trunk and branches Fundamental principles Foliage Details Don t get stuck in details!

Future studies Ok, so we need to change something but what? into what? and how??

Forecasting Attempts to predict future states from current trends Includes, e.g., simulation and optimization

Simulation Imitating the operation of a real world system over time Requires a model that represents the system Simulation represents the operation of the system (model) over time

Optimization Optimizing the operation of a real world system over time Requires a model that represents the system Optimization represents the operation of the system (model) over time, given certain requirements or constraints

But wouldn t it be nice if we could design the future ourselves, instead of just guessing?

Part 2 BACKCASTING

Backcasting Opposite to forecasting First a sustainable state is identified, then a development path is constructed backwards in time to the present (unsustainable) situation Backcasting is appropriate when it is not obvious that the present trends will lead to a desirable, sustainable, future

Backcasting Several versions of Backcasting were developed, more or less independent from each other, e.g.: The Natural Step (TNS) Originally focused on companies (Holmberg & Robèrt 2000) Sustainable Technology Development (STD) Oroginally focused on society (Jansen 1993; Vergragt & Jansen 1993) The two versions are very similar and can be applied for business as well as for public purposes and in between, e.g., development of economic sectors or regional development.

In this seminar Swedish approach not traditional TNS Based on TNS Adjusted after each time it has been applied in this, and other, seminar series Continuously developing

Overview 1. Define criteria for desirability 4. Construct a development path 3. Envision and assess potential solutions 2. Describe present situation in relation to the desired future [Holmberg and Robèrt, 2000]

Methodological steps 0. Problem orientation Aim System boundaries Stakeholder inventory 1. Develop desirability criteria, i.e., requirements for a desirable future 2. Present state analysis, in relation to the desirable future 3a 3b 3c Develop visions, i.e., potential solutions Scenario analysis 1. External factors 2. Possible future scenarios Identify a desirable and viable solution 1. Desirability test 2. Viability test 3. Adjust, combine and evaluate 4 Construct development path

Example

Step 0 PROBLEM ORIENTATION

Specify system boundaries It will be very problematic in later steps if the system boundaries are not sufficiently clear System boundaries could be: The globe, and all its organisms The city of Vilanova i la Geltrú, and its inhabitants Etc If not given, specify the time frame (e.g. 2050)

Stakeholder inventory Applying Backcasting is an iterative process where analysts continually need support from stakeholders. Otherwise, the suggested solution and development path will be neither desirable nor feasible Make an inventory of all the stakeholder groups (e.g. politicians, NGOs, companies, citizens, etc.) After each completed step in this project, divide the group into different stakeholders and discuss the intermediate results Identify things that are impossible to agree upon maybe these should be avoided? Note that it will be impossible to agree on everything. Some stakeholders are more powerful than others, but too large resistance from a less powerful stakeholder group can be devastating

Example

Step 1 DESIRABILITY CRITERIA

Principles for sustainability Four sustainability principles are given as a basis for discussion. They: 1. Focus on upstream mechanisms in the societal interaction with nature 2. Avoid complex cause-effect chains 3. Are timeless - do not change over time 4. Are easy to understand and agree upon

1. The ecosphere is not subject to systematically increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the lithosphere 4. Human needs are met worldwide 2. The ecosphere is not subject to systematically increasing concentrations of substances produced by society 3. The ecosphere is not subject to systematically increasing degradation by physical means

Desirability criteria We need a checklist for our visions, to see if they can be desirable solutions Desirability criteria need to be defined Considering all sustainability criteria, but also specific stakeholder demands Concrete ( tickable ) About 6-12 functional criteria is appropriate (for this project) Stakeholders must agree on the criteria that are used!

Example Desirability criteria

Step 2 ANALYSE THE PRESENT STATE

Present state Compare the present state with the desired future (i.e. the desirability criteria) Maybe it already is sustainable? If not (more likely), where do we see the biggest gaps? We need to understand why the present state is unsustainable and which the biggest challenges are.

Example

Step 3a VISIONS

3a. Develop visions Identify a number of visions, i.e., future states that may or may not be desirable Broadly formulated with distinctive differences, although some components can be similar Each vision should be named descriptively and described in some detail About 6-10 visions is appropriate at this point (for this project) A highly creative step brainstorm! Develop also seemingly undesirable/unviable visions, in order to see the problem from all angles and exhaust all possibilities

Example

Example Overall, these visions are specific components of a bigger picture. This is ok, and probably easier than trying to construct broader visions directly! Too similar? More like part of a strategy to achieve a vision More like a desirability criteria.

Step 3b SCENARIO ANALYSIS

3b-1 Inventory of external factors The system is affected by external factors A. General sustainability awareness B. Climate change C. technology D. E. Political stability F. Regulations suppliers G. society politics environment customers competitors economy

Example

Sort external factors based on: Impact Predictability Impact High Low Low High Predictability

Only consider high impact factors Separate trends from critical uncertainties Critical uncertainties Trends Impact High Neglect (low impact) Low Low High Predictability

Trends and critical uncertainties Trends Clear development Direction is possible to identify Are part of all scenarios Critical uncertainties Big influcence on focal question Highly uncertain several outcomes are possible Form the major differences between the future scenarios

Example

3b-2 Define future scenarios Select two critical uncertainties that are unrelated and highly relevant Describe the extreme values of the selected critical uncertainties Example: Sustainable agricultural developments in SSA Critical uncertainty 1: Political stability Critical uncertainty 2: Hydrological effects from climate change - + Conflicts Less rainfall Cooperation - + More rainfall

The two critical uncertainties that are selected form four different scenarios The four scenarios should be named and described in some detail Trends are included in all scenarios + A B - + D C - Scenario A:...............

Example

Example Could have come up with a more creative name

Step 3c IDENTIFY A DESIRABLE AND VIABLE SOLUTION

3c-1 Desirability test Test how the visions comply with the desirability criteria Criteria a b c d Total Vision 1 Vision 2 Vision 3 Vision 4 Importance 10 30 20 40 100

3c-1 Desirability test Test how the visions comply with the desirability criteria Criteria a b c d Total Vision 1 +++ ++ - + 110 Vision 2 -- - - +++ 50 Vision 3 +++ - - -- -100 Vision 4 ++ ++ ++ ++ 200 Importance 10 30 20 40 100

Example Desirability

3c-2 Viability test Test how the visions would fit into the four possible scenarios Scenarios I II III IV Total Vision 1 +++ ++ + + 7+ Vision 2 - -- - --- 7- Vision 3 ++ - + -- 0 Vision 4 +++ +++ - +++ 9+

3c-2 Viability test Test how the visions would fit into the four possible scenarios Scenarios I II III IV Total Robust Not robust Not very robust Adjust? Vision 1 +++ ++ + + 7+ Vision 2 - -- - --- 7- Vision 3 ++ - + -- 0 Vision 4 +++ +++ - +++ 9+

Example Viability

3c-3 Adjust, combine and evaluate Visions can be adjusted and combined to better cover the desirability criteria, and/or to better fit in the future scenarios When a vision has been changed perform a new desirability test (3c-1) and viability test (3c-2) Evaluate all results and select the most desirable and viable vision as your solution

Example

Example Desirability and viability

Step 4 DEVELOPMENT PATH

Example: 15 y old planning for a future dream job CV Dream job Present Grades BSc Must have sufficient grades to get into the BSc MSc Must have a BSs to get into the appropriate MSc Must have the appropriate degree Must have the appropriate CV

Development path 1 Solution 5 4 3 2 Must be in place for 2 Must be in place for 1 Must be in place for solution Must be in place for 3 Present Must be in place for 4

Development path Going backwards in time allows us to see in which order actions need to be made This order can be difficult to determine - requires exhaustive discussions Possible to group actions into near, medium, and long term

Example

TIME PLAN

Suggested time for each step Step 0 System boundaries, stakeholder inventory 1 1 Criteria for sustainability 2 2 Present state analysis 1 3a Develop visions 2 3b-1 Scenario analysis: external factors 1.5 3b-2 Scenario analysis: future scenarios 1.5 3c-1 Desirability test 1.5 3c-2 Viability test 1 3c-3 Adjust, combine, evaluate 2 4 Construct development path 2 Total 15.5 h Time

Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri 09:30-13:00 4 (1h) + Prepare presentation Final presentation 10:00-11:00 Lunch 15:00-16:30 16:30-18:00 0 1 2 3a Prepare presentation Review with teachers 3b (start 15:30) 3c-1 3c-2 3c-3 4 Final presentation

Sources of information and data Results from preparatory tasks Reports, research papers (internet) People in Vilanova i la Geltrú (Qualified) assumptions

Backcasting How to design a sustainable future Oskar Englund 2014 UPC-STD seminar Vilanova i la Geltrú