本作品采用知识共享署名 4.0 国际许可协议进行许可 Extrapolations from 100 (and 116) Medical Library Development and Innovation Forum Institute of Medical Information & Library Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) & Peking Union Medical College (PUMC) Keith Cogdill, PhD September 29, 2017
Extrapolation To project, extend, or expand (known data or experience) into an area not known or experienced so as to arrive at a usually conjectural knowledge of the unknown area. 根据 ( 已知数据或经验 ) 推测 延伸或扩展至某未知领域, 以获得对这一未知领域的规律性认识 韦氏词典 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/extrapolation
1917: Conflict and Death World War I Origins, Spanish flu 10 million deaths 50 million deaths https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e4/austrians_executing_se rbs_1917.jpg/1280px-austrians_executing_serbs_1917.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/90/1918_flu_outbreak_redcros slittercarriersspanishfluwashingtondc.jpg/1024px- 1918_flu_outbreak_RedCrossLitterCarriersSpanishFluWashingtonDC.jpg
1917: Collaboration and Hope https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/bundesarchiv_bild_137-023959%2c_rodfeller_institut_in_peking.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/jo hn_d._rockefeller https://en.wikipedia.o rg/wiki/simon_flexner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ William_H._Welch http://www.gahetna.nl/collectie/afbeeld ingen/fotocollectie/zoeken/weergave/de tail/q/id/aae2476e-d0b4-102d-bcf8-003048976d84 University of Chicago Photographic Archive, [apf1-04298], Special Collections Research Center, University of Chicago Library
2017: Collaboration and Hope https://www.cc.nih.gov/training/gme1.html https://videocast.nih.gov/summary.asp?live=20218&bhcp=1 3,176 Foreign Nationals at NIH in 2016, including: Visiting Fellows 1,510 Research Fellows 519 Guest Researchers 90 Staff Scientists 90 Clinical Fellows 81 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2017: Collaboration and Hope Wan-Cang Liu 北京协和医学院, 2015 美国国立卫生研究院糖尿病 消化病及肾病研究所 (NIDDK) Xin Zha 北京协和医学院, 2010 美国国立卫生研究院心肺与血液研究所 (NHLBI) Liping Hou 北京协和医学院, 2009 美国国立精神卫生究所 (NIMH) Guanghui Yang 北京协和医学院, 2014 美国国立卫生研究院糖尿病 消化病及肾病研究所 (NIDDK) Yanping Li 北京协和医学院, 2011 美国国立卫生研究院 ( 国家转化科学促进中心 (NCATS)
2000: ISTIC, Ministry of Science
1917: Libraries NIH Library photo archives Rockefeller Foundation. China Medical Board, Peking Union Medical College, library and students, 100 Years: The Rockefeller Foundation, accessed August 31, 2017
2017: Libraries https://nihlibrary.nih.gov http://english.cams.cn/singlepage/117.html
2117: Libraries NIH Library photo archives https://nihlibrary.nih.gov/about-us/news/directorsmessage%e2%80%95august-2017? https://www.fic.nih.gov/news/globalhealthmatters/jul y-august-2012/pages/nih-anniversary-josephkinyoun.aspx https://nihlibrary.nih.gov/sites/default/files/catalyst_article.pdf
What s dangerous is not to evolve. 危险的是一成不变 Jeff Bezos 亚马逊集团董事会主席兼 CEO https://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/jeff_bezos The best way to predict the future is to invent it. 预测未来最好的方法是创造它! Alan Kay 美国计算机科学家, 面向对象编程环境语言发明人之一, 面向对象编程思想的创始人之一 Photo by Marcin Wichary Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/file:alan_kay_and_the _prototype_of_the_dynabook_(3009206205).jpg
Changing Ecosystem Information wants to be free. Open access, PubMed Central SciHub, #ICanHazPDF Publishers shift of value-add From publication units To enhanced retrieval and analysis Data Data Data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/stewart_brand https://www.nlm.nih.gov/od/ roster/brennan.html
Extrapolations (Proximal) Space Fewer shelves More classes, consultations Platform for shared technologies and collaborations Customer contact Earlier in research lifecycle Frequency At time/place of need Our new collection : information solutions Emerging technologies in support of research and digital scholarship Expenditure shift from publication units to specialized databases (acquired and developed) Connections to data, especially experimental output Profiles - collaborations Custom analyses Systematic reviews Research assessment, bibliometric analyses Staff expertise Domain knowledge Lifelong learning: emerging technologies and rapidly evolving resources Information science Bibliometrics Experimental output: managing, analyzing, sharing and visualizing data
Inventing Our Future NIH Mission To seek fundamental knowledge about the nature and behavior of living systems and the application of that knowledge to enhance health, lengthen life, and reduce illness and disability. NIH Library Vision To be the premier provider of information solutions that enable discovery and improve health.
Inventing Our Future NIH Library Mission Pillars Promote knowledge synthesis and discovery Foster collaboration and community Enhance scholarly communication Pursue research and development that improves information access and use
Forecasting Science Anticipate changes in the practice of biomedical research Adjust portfolio of resources and services
Forecasting Science ORS Scientific Resources Divisions Division of Library Services (NIH Library) Division of Occupational Health and Safety Division of Radiation Safety Division of Scientific Equipment & Instrumentation Services Division of Veterinary Resources Medical Arts Branch ORS Division-Specific Advisory Groups Leadership of NIH Intramural Research Program
Forecasting Science Six Paths Forward in Biomedical Research Inflammatory diseases Genotyping & phenotyping Cell-based therapies Neuroscience and compulsive disorders RNA biology and therapeutics Microbiome
Forecasting Science: Timeline May Launch study June Interviews Completed July Focus groups Completed August - September October November Survey development Survey administration, reporting Planning implications explored
Forecasting Science Qualitative findings (interviews, focus groups) Practice of research is increasingly collaborative Lack of awareness of resources/services Desire for control Excellence noted when services used For some emerging science areas, support services staff may need additional training in science Inadequate support for genomic analysis and bioinformatics Tools available across NIH Capacity building (training, consultation) Computational analysis of experimental data
Forecasting Science Anticipated quantitative findings from survey Assessment of current service portfolio and perceived needs Institute-specific Junior versus senior researchers Basic science versus clinical research Among six emerging areas of research Register CRISPR research? Anticipated use of radionuclides (PET, non-pet)? Centralized veterinary surgery and phenotyping? Medical image bank? Sequencing applications: frequency and sources?
The very existence of libraries affords the best evidence that we may yet have hope for the future of man. 图书馆的存在即是最佳证据, 证明了我们对人类的未来尚怀有希望 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/t._s._eliot Attributed to T.S. Eliot ( 英国诗人 )