Activities of the Emerging g Risks Unit The Emerging Risks Unit: Tobin Robinson, Andrea Altieri, Luana Censi, Andrea Gervelmeyer, Tilemachos Goumperis, Aglika Hristova, Simona Pecoraro, Agnes Rortais 1
Emerging Risks Unit 2
Mandate of the EFSA on Emerging Risks REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 28 January 2002 Laying down the general principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety Article 34 Identification of emerging risks 1. The Authority shall establish monitoring procedures for systematic searching for, collecting, collating and analysing information and data with a view to the identification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission. Collecting and collating Analyse and filter sharing 3
Emerging Risks - EFSA s definition A food and feed-related emerging risk (ER). is an issue that in the future may pose a risk to the health of the consumer, animals or the environment. The indication of an ER may relate; (1) to a significant exposure to a hazard not recognized earlier or (2) to a new/increased exposure to a known hazard. Emerging risks can be the result of many factors, such as changed consumption patterns, new processes, and increased levelsl of pollutants. t Opinion of the Scientific Committee on a request from EFSA related to the early identification of emerging risks (July 2006). 4
History Timeline Search engines 2006 EMRISK Project Influential sector Indicator Indicative question Information sources SC Opinion on Emerging Risks Scientific experts Signal Proactive Alert Action 2007 EFSA Adopts Emerging Risk Definition ESCO Working Group on Emerging Risks 2008 Emerging Risks Unit 5
Activities of the Emerging Risks Unit Developing methodology Develop procedures and best practices for; - data collection and - data analysis for the identification of emerging g risks Data collection Identify existing key sources of information and monitor them Identify signals Identification of potential emerging risks (Preparedness for food safety crises) 6
Networking on emerging risks Experts Member States Establish a Europe-wide global network system for exchanging information to screen new hazards Developing a cooperative approach (a common model) to address emerging risks in different sectors respecting the independence and autonomy of each organization 7
Emerging risks identification system 8
Current tools under development Rapid Alerts IT applications for data analysis of the Rapid Alert System for Food & Feed (RASFF) Media monitoring Assessment of the European Media Monitor Trade data Eurostat UN Comtrade 9
10
What is the RASFF? Aim: Exchange information of a direct or indirect risk to human health, deriving from food or feed Legal basis: EC No 178/2002, art. 50-52 Network: DG-SANCO responsible for managing the network EFSA provides scientific or technical support Member Countries (notify recall measures, recommendations, border rejections) 11
Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) 12
Objectives, timelines, resources Main Objective Develop a system for routine monitoring and analysis of recent data from the RASFF, aiming at a timely trend detection of hazards in food and feed Timelines Setting up of the system in the first half of 2009 Internal validation and outputs definition by the end of the 2009 Resources EC: RASFF Team EFSA internal resources: IT support, AMU, EFSA internal task force External: contractors for statistical analyses 13
Methodology Data collection - data management, storage and cleaning Data Analysis and Signal detection - descriptive statistics (e.g. excel, sas) - quantitative statistical assessment (e.g. trends and alerts) - IT applications for data visualization (e.g. GIS-mapping tool) Validation of the system Define a strategy for sharing the information 14
Deliverables Access Database Now available on intranet Descriptive statistics (SAS Web) First draft under trial with internal task force Excel pivot charts Validated by the Unit Being validated by the internal task force GIS mapping Tool (developed by AMU) To be validated by the Unit 15
Descriptive Statistics Distribution by Product Categories 16
Descriptive Statistics Time series 17
Descriptive Statistics Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1 μg / kg - ppm 18
Descriptive Statistics Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1 19
GIS Mapping tool (developed by AMU) 20
Next Steps Completion and validation of the web-applications (June 2009) Define IT strategy for system maintenance (June 2009) Statistical models for quantitative signal detection (by July 2009) 21
Media Monitoring 22
Overview on EMM http://emm.jrc.it/overview.html html Initially developed by the JRC for DG-COMM Covers 20 news wires and 2,500 news sources from around the world Gathering, filtering and classification Aggregation and clustering Presentation, visualization Special features of EMM: Fully automatic (moderation possible) Real time (10-minutes updates), 24/7 High multilinguality (>40 languages)
Presentation of EMM NewsBrief : breaking news and live news of the last few minutes and hours EMM-Labs : graphical analysis NewsExplorer : daily news summary MedISys : early warning alerts per category and country For further information, contact the Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) of the JRC
Overview on MedISys (public & restricted access) http://medusa.jrc.it Identify potential threats on: Diseases Bioterrorism Nuclear Chemical Other: specific alerts (international ti organization, EFSA, ECDC, ) Information filtering and classification can be moderated on RNS (Rapid News System) : https://medirns.jrc.it/rns/alerteditor/help/help.html#02 Articles are categorized using boolean combinations of search words Search words have positive or negative weights An acceptance threshold is defined to pick up search words A proximity level can also be set up (occurrence of the words in the text) 25
MedISys
MedISys top stories
H1N1 category
Sources on MedISys 17 countries (30-40 channels) 17 countries (20-30 channels) 23 countries (10-20 channels) 101 countries (1-10 channels) Many countries are not covered by MedISys (or poorly covere Most uncovered countries are located in the Southern Hemisphere (tropics)
Sources on MedISys in EU Germany France UK Sweden Spain Hungary Italy Netherlands Denmark Austria Poland Finland Greece Romania Czech Republic Portugal Latvia Belgium Bulgaria Slovakia Ireland Slovania Lithuania Estonia Malta Luxembourg Cyprus Number of media sources screened 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Heterogeneity of media-coverage on MedIsys for EU countries
Trade data 31
International Trade and Import Surveillance EUROSTAT is an important source for data regarding EU UN Comtrade database for international trade The reliability, availability and limitations of data in the above mentioned databases (and others) are being evaluated 32
Example, the exports of Irish pork was traced Exports of Irish pork meat and offal. Period January-August 2008. Quantities in 100Kg 33 No data for Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia were reported.
Next Steps 34
Climate change - Article 36 call Modelling, predicting and mapping the (re)emergence of aflatoxin B1 in cereals in EU due to climate change. The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue for food and feed safety. Changing patterns in mycotoxin production in cereals due to climate change is identified as a potential area of concern. Therefore, EFSA is seeking scientific information, based on models and scenarios, to predict the potential production of mycotoxins in cereals (maize, wheat and rice) due to climate change. This work will support risk assessment activities of other EFSA s Units and Panels. 35
Climate change (cont d) It is difficult to determine the potential risks of (re)emerging mycotoxin producing microorganisms because their development is influenced by several interacting factors such as, microclimate conditions (e.g. local temperature and humidity), use of fertilisers, and insect attacks all modulated by climate change. The project shall focus on the growth of aflatoxin B1 producers at the pre-harverst stage only (potential contamination events during transportation, storage and trading are not covered by the call). 36
New Working Group A new WG to be formed to support the activities of the Emerging Risks Unit in identifying Emerging Risks. Draft mandate to include: 1) Review of current tools for identifying Emerging Risks - propose further refinements (Applications other than just for identification of ER) 2) Working from an existing provisional list of more than 200 ER indicators; - Propose a method for prioritisation - Propose a priority list of signals (taking into account the availability of databases, and interactions between signals) 3) Identify the most useful databases for the priority signals 37
Stakeholder support to the WG We need input from the food/feed chain! Therefore the formation of a Stakeholder support group on emerging risks is proposed : Input desired: Experts from food/feed chain with experience of identifying emerging risks Factual knowledge and methodologies Emerging trends in: Packaging, processing, raw materials new technology, new ingredients, new sources (countries, or biological/material), changing consumption patterns, agricultural practices 38
Stakeholder support to the WG Formal request for nominations to the support group, and the mandate to be sent out by end of June 2009 First meeting anticipated for September 2009 The group will meet twice in 2009, and three-four times in 2010. Activity anticipated to end by September 2010. 39
Thank you for your attention EMRISK Unit as EFSA is committed to independency d and transparency www.efsa.europa e.eu 40