NETWORKED FORESIGHT IN FORWARD LOOKING COMMUNITIES Tentative implications for foresight practices Finland Futures Research Centre s 17th annual conference Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems 11.-12.6.2015 Sofi Kurki
Background: Research idea came from ad hoc empirical observations of certain particular communities (silicon valley entrepreneurs, also non-hierarchical firms). Puzzle: people have an explicit disregard for futures thinking. Yet in these instances there is an obviously, and profoundly embedded forward looking culture. What is going on?
Theoretical tools for understanding In the literature referred to as: anticipatory systems (Rosen 1985/2012; e.g. Miller 2010; Miller, Poli, Rossel 2013); constructive approach (Tuomi 2012); entrepreneurial foresight (Fuller & Warren 2006); reflexive foresight (Wilenius 2015); rhizomatic knowledge creation (Heinonen 2015, forthcoming) Futures map concept. (Kuusi, Cuhls & Steinmuller 2015). An implicit futures map?
Elements of systemic foresight organisational model that gives each agent theoretical equality in decision-making. freedom, responsibility. seamless communication (Saxenian 1994, Perry Piscione 2013, Laloux 2014). very precise monitoring of the environment (transparency, new technologies & techniques). futures consicousness? A shared notion of the impossibility of long (even medium) term foresight in a complex world: emphasis naturally falls on making the future a much more organic and reactive approach.
Why should this be interesting? Kondratieff wave theory: new technological paradigm brings about / enables new forms of organising. The Internet (as a metaphor maybe most of all, shaped the thinking), transparency: new organisational cultures. what if the non-hierarchical organising and culture is a strengthening trend: what are the implications for foresight (Foresight is the structured debate about complex futures).
Relationship with foresight thinking There seems to be fundamental friction between the traditional foresight approach (explicit, process-based, linear, systematic, medium-to-long term ) and the innate, implicit, and organic futures consciousness. An analytical, not normative description. Not saying that other forms of foresight are not important and relevant, on the contrary.
The good: Whereas in a traditional organisation: transferable information is restricted to knowledge that can be codified, while non-codifiable forms of understanding remain by definition at their source (Powell & Ambrosini 2012). multiple governance layers filter, distort, and block the information flows, especially with extremely uncertain information such as the weak signals (Ansoff 1984). In a non-hierarchical organisational form: decentralization of authority to the individual level, meaning that decisions can be done without codifying and filtering the information, and in effect merging the controlling entity with the whole organization as a solution to complexity requirements.
Open questions: The problematic (especially vis-avis foresight): could wicked problems ever be solved by an approach like this? Do the ethical considerations touch only the partial sub-system / culture? Does this kind of an organisational model require a higly homogenic population? Monoculture?
The role of foresight One of the goals of futures studies is to build up competences for heightened futures consciousness. The studied communities seem to have developed them on their own. Implications for foresight still maybe not new goals, but old ones: The role of foresight: to feed the discussion. Educate the participants to acknowledge the future more explicitly. Spontaneous communal forward looking NOT systematic, and operates at its core on a trial & error logic. Foresight s task (there also) would be thus to offer tools to improve the level of discussion. Cuhls: ask the right questions, ask them right. Emphasis on convincing argumentation, the results of systematic, well argued futures processes brought to the discussion.
References Fuller, T., Warren, L. (2006): Entrepreneurship as foresight: A complex social network perspective on organisational foresight. Futures, 38, 956-971. Perry Piscione, D. (2013): Secrets of Silicon Valley: What Everyone Else Can Learn from the Innovation Capital of the World. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Rosen, R. (1985/2012). Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, and Methodological Foundations, Robert Rosen, 2nd edition, with contributions by Judith Rosen, John J. Klineman and Mihai Nadin, 2012, lx + 472 pp., Springer, New York ISBN 978-1-4614-1268-7 Saxenian, A. (1994): Regional Advantage. Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Tuomi, I. (2012). Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 24:8, 735-751. Wilenius, M. (2015): Tulevaisuuskirja. Helsinki: Otava.
Thank you! Questions, comments? Contact: Sofi.Kurki@utu.fi UTU Graduate School funding is gratefully acknowledged.