Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima Christophe Bonnery Vice President, Energy Policy, AREVA 30 th USAEE IAEE annual conference Washington DC October 10 th 2011
Agenda Christophe Bonnery (Presiding) Vice President, Energy Policy, AREVA Kyoichi Miyazaki Senior Consultant, Poten & Partners Laurent Stricker Chairman, World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) Peter Bradford Adjunct Professor, Vermont Law School Wilfrid L. Kohl Senior Advisor and Adjunct Professor, Johns Hopkins University, SAIS Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.2
Cycles in energy? Nuclear investment, oil shocks, market design New Nuclear Capacity Added Annually (GW), inflation adjusted oil price (USD) (GW) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1986: Chernobyl Proposed Under construction Operational 2011: Fukushima 120 100 80 60 40 20 World nuclear capacity to be built, cumulated (from POLES): 2010-20: 80 GW 2020-30: 70 GW 2030-40: 120 GW 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0 Source: Enerdata Power Plant Tracker database Total operational capacity: 350 GW Under construction and proposed: 210 GW Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.3
Back-up Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.4
Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima Can we today seriously assess the economic impact of Fukushima? In Japan, can we separate exogenous variables? Earthquake cost on global economy if no accident had accured in Fukushima? Specific direct cost of Fukushima? Cost of changing Japanese traditional energy policy (gas and renewable alternatives)? Rest of the World: Impact of safety improvement measures on existing national nuclear fleets? On nuclear new builds? Then economic rationale could prevail and allow unbiased assessments Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.5
Resilience Concept used in many areas like physics, psychology, computer science, ecology or economics Used to characterize ability of a somebody or of a system to resist a choc and recover its initial form or functioning For a company, or an economic sector, like nuclear (including its agents : operators, investors, suppliers), what matters is the capacity to maintain its activity, even in altered mode after having faced an attack or a natural disaster (earthquake, tsunami, ) For years, industries have set continuity plans to ensure their activities NPP resilience to earthquake or flooding should certainly been improved But to which level? Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.6
Christophe Bonnery Christophe Bonnery is Vice President, Energy Policy for the AREVA Group. His role consists in understanding current energy policies and promoting acceptable evolutions for all stakeholders: Governments, industries, consumers, researchers. He is also President of the French Association for Energy Economics. He was previously Vice President, Economic & Prospective Studies, AREVA. In this role, he headed a team of Senior Energy Experts in charge of electricity markets, competitiveness assessments and all primary energies analyses. Within AREVA, he also serves as Project Manager for a program aiming to define potential synergies between nuclear and oil industries for heavy oil production. He is member of the Scientific Committee and of the Liaison Committee of the French Affiliation of the World Energy Council (WEC). He is member of the Executive Committee of the Center for Energy & Geopolitics Studies (Paris-Dauphine University). He is also member of the French Association of Petroleum Technicians/ Economic Section and of French Gas Association. Mr. Bonnery received his M.Sc in General Engineering from Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France, and MBA in Petroleum Economics and Management from the Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, Paris, France. His former affiliations include: Head of the Economics Department, NUSYS consulting company, Paris, France; Commercial Director, International Nuclear Division, SGN, Paris, France; Project-consultant, Shell, Paris, France; Research Assistant, Economic and Industrial Research Division, University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.7
Kyoichi Miyazaki Kyoichi Miyazaki is a Senior Consultant in Poten & Partners New York office and has over 11 years of practical experience in the fields of energy and trade finance (e.g., foreign exchange transactions). Kyoichi has conducted numerous studies advising established and new Asian LNG buyers for LNG procurement strategies, taking into account LNG demand, supply and pricing analyses. Kyoichi has played a key analytical and advisory role in multiple Asia Pacific LNG market and pricing studies for global LNG suppliers. Kyoichi has a solid understanding of the Japanese utility industry with extensive experience with the six major utility companies stemming from more than a dozen consulting projects completed. Prior to joining Poten, Kyoichi worked at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) where he focused on LNG value chain analysis. He also worked at Strategic Decisions Group and at Mitsubishi Corporation (Japan). Kyoichi holds a BA in Political Science from Waseda University in Tokyo and MA Law & Diplomacy from Tufts University. Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.8
Laurent Stricker Laurent Stricker became a new Chairman of WANO Governing Board. He was elected at recent GB in London. Laurent Stricker, Senior Advisor to the Chairman and CEO of Electricité de France, was Head of Nuclear Operations for six years from 1999 to 2005. He was responsible for the operation of the French nuclear fleet 58 nuclear units, representing a generating capacity of approximately 63,000 MW and heads a staff of about 20,000 people. He is CEA(1) Board member. Furthermore, he was SOCODEI(2) chairman. He is now member of the board of WNA(3). Laurent Stricker is EnBW(4) Supervisory Board member. Laurent Stricker was member of the Board of WANO(5) Paris Centre from 1999 to 2005. In 2003, he became Chairman of this Board and member of the Main Governing Board. Laurent Stricker s career at Electricité de France spans 30 years, his extensive experience being mainly in nuclear generation. He has held numerous positions among which, Director of the Grid and of Thermal and Hydraulic Generation, supervising generation and transmission facilities. Prior to this, he was Head of the Radiation Protection and Environment Department in Paris. He was Plant Manager at Saint-Laurent-des-Eaux for 3 years. He was also Head of Bugey training centre. Mr. Stricker has had extensive formal training and education in chemical, metallurgical and nuclear engineering, and holds a Diplôme d'ingénieur from both the Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble, France, and the Institut des Sciences et Techniques Nucléaires, Saclay, France. He also holds a diploma from Nancy University in Eastern France. Laurent Stricker served as President of the French Society of Radiation Protection from 1991 to 1993. Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.9
Peter Bradford A former member of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and former chair of the New York and Maine utility regulatory commissions, Peter Bradford has taught at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and currently is an Adjunct Professor at Vermont Law School teaching Nuclear Power and Public Policy. A member of the China Sustainable Energy Policy Council, he served on a recent panel evaluating the reliability of the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant, on the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Panel advising how best to replace the remaining Chernobyl nuclear plants in Ukraine, a panel on the opening of the Mochovce nuclear power plant in Slovakia, and the Keystone Center collaborative on nuclear power and climate change. He is the author of Fragile Structures: A Story of Oil Refineries, National Securities and the Coast of Maine and many articles. He is a graduate of Yale University and the Yale Law School and is Vice Chair of the board of The Union of Concerned Scientists. Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.10
Wilfrid Kohl Wilfrid Kohl is senior advisor and adjunct professor in the Energy, Resources, Environment Program at Johns Hopkins SAIS. His is a former director of the International Energy and Environment Program of the Foreign Policy Institute and former director of SAIS's Bologna Center; served as associate director of Columbia University's Institute in Western Europe; past international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; former staff member of the National Security Council and program officer at the Ford Foundation; taught at the University of Pennsylvania and lectured at the Foreign Service Institute of the U.S. Department of State; member of the International Association of Energy Economics; Ph.D., political science, Columbia University. Prospects for Nuclear Power After Fukushima 30 th USAEE- IAEE annual conference October 2011 - p.11