The State of the Erie Economy Presentation to Presque Isle CPCU Society Chapter September 14, 2017 Kenneth Louie The Economic Research Institute of Erie Sam and Irene Black School of Business Penn State Behrend
ERIE Resources on the Erie Economy www.eriedata.org
Three Key Metrics The Erie Economy in 2017 Output Income Employment
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Indexed GDP ( 2009 $) Total Output (GDP): Erie, PA, and U.S. Real (Inflation-Adjusted) GDP 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 US: PA: Erie: 2015 Real GDP $16.1 trillion $644.9 billion $9.7 billion U.S. PA Erie 126 124 100 0 Latest: 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Erie GDP by Industry (Percent of Total), 2015 Manufacturing Government Health care and social assistance Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing Retail trade Professional and business services Wholesale trade Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and Construction Other services, except government Transportation and warehousing Educational services Information Utilities Mining Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 13.6% ($1.5 billion) 12.8% ($1.4 billion) 12.8% ($1.4 billion) 7.0% ($756 million) 5.6% 4.5% 4.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% Erie GDP in 2015: $10.9 billion 25.9% ($2.8 billion) 2014 ($ millions): FIRRL: $1,424 Finance & Insurance: 887 Insurance Carriers: 710 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
GDP by Industry (%), 2015: Erie versus PA and U.S. Erie PA U.S. Location Quotient Erie/PA Erie/U.S. Manufacturing 25.87% 12.12% 12.11% 2.14 2.14 Government 13.55% 10.08% 12.42% 1.34 1.09 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 12.75% 18.67% 20.40% 0.68 0.63 Health care and social assistance 12.75% 9.42% 7.25% 1.35 1.76 Retail trade 6.96% 5.11% 5.90% 1.36 1.18 Professional and business services 5.55% 13.02% 12.31% 0.43 0.45 Wholesale trade 4.46% 5.87% 6.10% 0.76 0.73 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services 4.25% 3.29% 3.96% 1.29 1.07 Construction 3.12% 4.19% 4.08% 0.74 0.76 Other services, except government 3.00% 2.22% 2.24% 1.35 1.34 Transportation and warehousing 1.96% 3.14% 3.03% 0.63 0.65 Educational services 1.93% 2.11% 1.13% 0.92 1.71 Information 1.86% 6.36% 4.69% 0.29 0.40 Utilities 1.35% 1.63% 1.59% 0.83 0.85 Mining 0.35% 2.25% 1.83% 0.16 0.19 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.28% 0.54% 0.98% 0.51 0.28 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Chained 2009 Dollars Real GDP Per Capita $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 U.S. $50,418 (+18.7%) $44,689 $50,155 $42,458 PA (+12.2%) Erie $34,421 $34,914 (+1.4%) $10,000 Latest: 2015 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Real Income Per Capita (2012 $) Real Income Per Capita, % of U.S. Real Income Per Capita Erie versus PA and U.S. Erie as a Percent of U.S. $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $25,912 $24,173 $48,266 (+86.3%) $48,187 (+99.3%) $39,159 (+73.7%) 95 90 85 87.0 90.7 86.3 $20,000 $10,000 $22,547 80 75 80.0 77.4 81.1 $0 Latest: 2015 70 Latest: 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Median Household Income Real Median Household Income $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 U.S. PA Erie County $51,914 $57,230 $55,702 $50,398 $47,386 $43,595 2016: US: $59,039 PA: $56,907 Erie: $48,964 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source for 2010-2014: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates Source for 2015-2016: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates,Table B19013 (Figures for the U.S. for 2015 and 2016 are from U.S. Census News Release, 9/12/2017)
Average Weekly Wages by Industry, Erie County, 4 th Quarter 2016 Utilities Finance and Insurance Management of Companies and Enterprises Manufacturing Professional and Technical Services Public Administration Wholesale Trade Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Construction Information Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Total, All Industries Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Retail Trade Other Services, Ex. Public Admin Administrative and Waste Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services $275 $534 $496 $493 $451 $406 $661 $937 $922 $888 $880 $844 $835 $809 $1,244 $1,151 $1,148 $1,067 $1,032 $1,456 $1,415 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
Percent of Population Poverty Rates PA U.S. Erie County 20% 17.4% 18.3% 17.5% 15% 10% 5% 15.3% 13.5% 13.4% 13.2% 2016: US: 12.7% PA: 12.9% Erie: 15.9% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates, Table S1701 (Figures for the U.S. in 2015 and 2016 are from Census News Release, 9/12/2017))
January, 1970 February, 1971 March, 1972 April, 1973 May, 1974 June, 1975 July, 1976 August, 1977 September, 1978 October, 1979 November, 1980 December, 1981 January, 1983 February, 1984 March, 1985 April, 1986 May, 1987 June, 1988 July, 1989 August, 1990 September, 1991 October, 1992 November, 1993 December, 1994 January, 1996 February, 1997 March, 1998 April, 1999 May, 2000 June, 2001 July, 2002 August, 2003 September, 2004 October, 2005 November, 2006 December, 2007 January, 2009 February, 2010 March, 2011 April, 2012 May, 2013 June, 2014 July, 2015 August, 2016 Total Employment (Thousands) Erie Total Employment, 1970-2017 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 (Seasonally Adjusted) 101,400 (Jan 1970) 136,300 (Feb 1999) 124,500 (July 2017) Latest: July 2017 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
January, 1990 September, 1990 May, 1991 January, 1992 September, 1992 May, 1993 January, 1994 September, 1994 May, 1995 January, 1996 September, 1996 May, 1997 January, 1998 September, 1998 May, 1999 January, 2000 September, 2000 May, 2001 January, 2002 September, 2002 May, 2003 January, 2004 September, 2004 May, 2005 January, 2006 September, 2006 May, 2007 January, 2008 September, 2008 May, 2009 January, 2010 September, 2010 May, 2011 January, 2012 September, 2012 May, 2013 January, 2014 September, 2014 May, 2015 January, 2016 September, 2016 May, 2017 Total Employment (Thousands) Erie Total Employment, 1990-2017 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114 (Seasonally Adjusted) +10,800 (8.6%) 125,500 (Jan 1990) 136,300 (Feb 1999) 8,200 (6.0%) +6,400 (5.0%) 128,100 (Aug 2003) 134,500 (May 2008) 12,900 (9.6%) +6,200 (5.1%) 121,600 (Jan 2010) 127,800 (Feb 2015) 3,300 (2.6%) 124,500 (July 2017) Latest: July 2017 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
January, 1970 February, 1971 March, 1972 April, 1973 May, 1974 June, 1975 July, 1976 August, 1977 September, 1978 October, 1979 November, 1980 December, 1981 January, 1983 February, 1984 March, 1985 April, 1986 May, 1987 June, 1988 July, 1989 August, 1990 September, 1991 October, 1992 November, 1993 December, 1994 January, 1996 February, 1997 March, 1998 April, 1999 May, 2000 June, 2001 July, 2002 August, 2003 September, 2004 October, 2005 November, 2006 December, 2007 January, 2009 February, 2010 March, 2011 April, 2012 May, 2013 June, 2014 July, 2015 August, 2016 Indexed Employment (Jan 1970 = 100) Total Employment, 1970-2017 (Indexed to Jan 1970) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 PA Erie U.S. 194 134 123 Latest: May 2017 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
Total Employment Total Employment Total Employment Total Employment, Jan July, 2017 (Seasonally Adjusted) U.S. PA Erie 154,000,000 6,160,000 125,200 153,500,000 153,000,000 6,140,000 125,000 124,800 152,500,000 6,120,000 124,600 152,000,000 151,500,000 6,100,000 124,400 124,200 151,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 6,080,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 124,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
Employment by Industry (% of Total), Erie vs U.S. (2015) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information System
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unemplyment Rate Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 12.0% 10.0% 9.2% (Dec 1991) 10.1% (Jan 2010) 8.0% 6.0% U.S. Erie 7.0% (Mar 2002) PA 5.6% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.3% (Mar 2000) 4.5% (Mar 2007) 4.3% 0.0% Latest: July 2017 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
PNC s Northwest Pennsylvania Market Outlook: 2017.Q1 (Source: PNC, http://www.pnc.com/economicreports)
The Evolution of Erie s Economy Brookings Institution Analysis: Advanced Industries Source: Brookings Institution
Brookings Institution Analysis: Advanced Industries Source: Brookings Institution
I invite you to contact me to: share your ideas and suggestions let us know if you need assistance with finding, analyzing, and understanding economic data or other information related to the Erie economy discuss possible ERIE research projects you can conduct with us Ken Louie, Director klouie@psu.edu (814) 898-6265 www.eriedata.org Thank You!