Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey

Papers of the East-West Population Institute, no. 52 Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey Sam Suharto and Lee-Jay Cho T \7*S EAST-WEST CENTER HONOLULU HAWAII

Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey Sam Suharto and Lee-Jay Cho Number 52 May 1978 PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE

SAM SUHARTO is Director of the Data Processing Center, Central Bureau of Statistics. Indonesia. LEE-JAY CHO is Director of the East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, and Professor of Sociology at the University of Hawaii. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Suharto, Sam.. 1940- Preliminary estimates of Indonesian fertility based on the 1976 intercensal population survey. (Papers of the East-West Population Institute ; no. 52) "Presented at the Conference on Comparative Fertility Transition in Asia, held in Tokyo during 27-31 March 1978." Bibliography: p. 21. 1. Fertility. Human-Indonesia-Congresses. 2. Indonesia, 1976 Congresses. 3. Indonesia- Population-Congresses. I. Cho, Lee-Jay, joint author. II. Title. III. Series: East-West Population Institute. Papers of the East-West Population Institute ; no. 52. HB903.F4S9 301.32T09598 78-171 16

CONTENTS Preface v Abstract 1 Background 1 Data collection 2 Estimates and evaluation Conclusion 18 References 21

iv TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1 Number of households, by province, for the Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS), Phases 1, II, and III 6 2 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region: 1967-70 and 1967-71 9 3 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region: 1967 70 11 4 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region: 1967 70 12 5 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: 1967-70 and 1971-75 15 6 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: 1967-70and 1971-75 16 7 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: 1967-70 and 1971-75 1 7 8 Estimates of total fertility rates for Java and Bali based on the 1971 census, SUPAS Phase I (1976), and SUPAS Phase III (1976) 18 Figures 1 The 26 provinces of Indonesia: 1971 4 2 Levels of geographic division for Indonesian censuses and surveys 5 3 Scatter diagram of total fertility rate estimated from SUPAS I (1976) and the 1971 census: Indonesia, 1967-70 14

V PREFACE The Indonesian Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS*) was conducted in 1976 by the Central Bureau of Statistics, Government of Indonesia. This paper, presenting a preliminary analysis of the first stage of the survey, is the first in a series drawing on data from the three stages of the survey. In the absence of reliable indicators of recent fertility change, the preliminary fertility estimates presented here are intended to be indicative of recent levels and change in different regions-of Indonesia. The paper was presented at the Conference on Comparative Fertility Transition in Asia, held in Tokyo during 27 31 March 1978. It is the result of a close collaborative effort between the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the East-West Population Institute. Major support for the survey and analysis has come from the Office of Population, Agency for International Development. The Ford Foundation also provided support for the project. The authors acknowledge the work of the CBS personnel in conducting and processing the survey. Special thanks are due to Mr. M. Abdulmadjid, Director General, Central Bureau of Statistics, for his leadership and support in the conduct of SUPAS. The authors are grateful to Mr. Si Gde Made Mamas for his assistance and helpful comments in the preparation of the paper, and to Dr. Michael Levin and Ms. Judith Tom for their assistance in the computation of the fertility rates from SUPAS-I. Critical comments by Drs. Robert Retherford and Griffith Feeney are also appreciated. Survey Penduduk Antar Sensus.

ABSTRACT This paper presents preliminary estimates of recent fertility levels and trends for Indonesia and its major geographical areas. The first stage of the 1976 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS-I) comprised a large enough sample to enable estimation of fertility at the provincial and regional levels using the own-children method. The fertility estimates from SUPAS-I for the period 196 7-75 are compared with those based on the 1971 census for the same areas. Agreement between the estimates from two different sources of data is quite convincing, especially when applied to regional variations in the level of fertility. Some recent decline of fertility, particularly in Java and Bali, is indicated by the survey data BACKGROUND Current estimates of fertility, mortality, migration, and other demographic characteristics for Indonesia are based on information collected through population censuses and various surveys. Since Indonesia gained its independence in 1945, only two nationwide censuses have been conducted, in 1961 and again in 197 1. Estimation of trends and levels of demographic features for the country as a whole, as well as for the geographic areas, is based primarily on the two censuses. Additional population statistics have been obtained from surveys conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics and other research institutions or universities. During the 1960s, a number of sample surveys were undertaken by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Many of the survey results were not fully utilized, however, owing to limited processing equipment and data storage, which meant that retabulation of the data was not possible. Although the tabulated results do provide valuable information for estimating the components of population growth, some of the surveys were incomplete in geographical coverage while others limited the population to be studied to a particular segment, such as those engaged in some specific economic activity. As in most developing countries, vital registration has been practiced neither widely nor successfully 'throughout Indonesia. It is expected that estimation of rates and demographic measures will have to be based on census and survey data for some time in the future. The rapid social and economic changes in Indonesia in recent years call for more frequent monitoring of population characteristics. For

2 this reason, a mid-decade population survey was implemented in March 1976 to provide the government and the society with more reliable information about population trends. The Intercensal Population Survey, or the SUPAS, serves as a link between the 1971 and the forthcoming 1981 population censuses. The SUPAS, however, covered more information than is normally included in a population census. Because fewer households were enumerated, the data collection in this survey could be more intensive than in the census. The data collected for the SUPAS were aimed at achieving the following objectives: (a) to obtain detailed socioeconomic data for interregional comparisons, (b) to help estimate population trends in Indonesia, (c) to provide estimates of the labor force and information about manpower conditions and utilization, (d) to determine the validity of other sources of fertility and mortality estimates, (e) to provide several measures to assess the extent of family planning utilization, and (0 to participate in the efforts of the World Fertility Survey to establish world fertility trends. DATA COLLECTION The SUPAS was divided into three integrated, multipurpose phases to economize in the operation of the survey. Phase I involved a large household listing with selected information collected on all members of the household, including name, family relationship, sex, age, marital status, and own-mother status. This information allows for the computation of fertility estimates based on the own-children method for each area where the survey was conducted. The fertility estimates presented in this paper are based on the results of this phase. Phase I also supplied the information required for selecting samples for the subsequent phases. Phase II was designed to collect more detailed information from a subsample of selected respondents. This was the most comprehensive part of the undertaking; topics covered include individual characteristics of household members, marital and divorce history, own children, desire for additional children, contraceptive knowledge and practice, religion, education, household composition, income, work status and conditions, population movement, and fertility. Because Phase II was a subsample of Phase I, it was possible to apply the ratio estimation technique to obtain estimates of detailed population characteristics for smaller regions. Phase III was conducted in connection with the Indonesian family planning program and in line with the series of surveys done for the

3 World Fertility Survey (WFS). The questionnaire was adapted from the WFS core questionnaire, with some additional questions on family planning. The selection of samples for Java and Bali and for the rest of the country was made in different ways. Java, the most densely populated island in Indonesia, consists of five provinces with a total population of more than 76 million in 1971. Jakarta, the nation's capital, is considered a special province, and the others are West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java (see Figure 1). The island of Bali is one province. Indonesia's 26 provinces are divided into 281 regencies (kabupaten) and municipalities (kotamadya). Each regency and municipality consists of several subdistricts (kecamatan), and in each subdistrict there are several villages (see Figure 2). For the census and survey, each village was divided into several census blocks with approximately equal numbers of households. In Java, an urban census block contains between 30 and 70 households and a rural census block has 60 to 125 households; in Bali a census block includes 30 to 70 households for both urban and rural areas. The SUPAS was designed to provide subprovincial estimates; it is not possible, however, to produce estimates for the regency or municipality levels from the SUPAS data. Survey domains comprised two to seven regencies in each province, grouped together so that each domain represented a homogeneous sampling unit. In each province, all the municipalities were grouped together into one domain. In addition, to economize as much as possible, clusters were formed by grouping two or three census blocks within a village. Each cluster in rural areas of Java had about 200 households, whereas in other areas each cluster included about 100 households. A multistage sample was designed for Phase III, to produce provincial estimates. For rural areas ten subdistricts were selected from each domain in Java and 15 subdistricts were selected from each domain in Bali, with selection based on probability proportional to the size of the population. From each subdistrict one village was selected, again on the basis of probability proportional to population size; then a cluster was selected at random from each selected village. A sample of households, which had already been listed during Phase I of the survey, was then selected from each cluster. In the domains composed of municipalities, the selection of clusters from each domain was made in the same manner as for the rural areas; for urban areas of domains composed of regencies, a sample of urban

FIGURE 1 The 26 provinces of Indonesia: 1971 Province boundary <3 F.quator ct/ 6 0 26 Australia 96 E 104 112 120 128 1 36 I L. 1 Jakarta 2 West Java 3 Central Java 4 Yogyakarta 5 East Java 6 Bali 7 Aceh 8 North Sumatra 9 West Sumatra 10 Riau 11 Jambi 12 South Sumatra 13 Bengkulu 14 Lampung 15 North Sulawesi 16 Central Sulawesi 17 South Sulawesi 18 Southeast Sulawesi 19 West Kalimantan 20 Central Kalimantan 21 South Kalimantan 22 East Kalimantan 23 West Nusa Tenggara 24 East Nusa Tenggara 25 Maluku 26 Irian Jay a

5 FIGURE 2 Levels of geographic division for Indonesian censuses and surveys PROVINCE Regency Municipality Subdistrict Village Subdistrict Village block block Household Household villages was selected on the basis of probability proportional to the size of the population, and clusters were selected randomly. Then, as in the rural areas, households were selected from the household lists prepared during Phase I of the survey. The number of households selected for Phases I, II, and III of the survey are presented in Table 1. METHOD Fertility rates were estimated with the own-children method, which is a census- or survey-based reverse-survival technique for estimating agespecific fertility for periods prior to enumeration. Children living in the household and enumerated are first matched to mothers within households on the basis of answers to census questions on relation to head of household, age, sex, marital status, and number of children surviving or ever born. These own children thus matched are classified by age of children and that of mother, and are reverse-survived to estimate birth by age of mother for the previous years with certain adjustments for underenumeration and those children not surviving or not living with mothers. Depending on the kind of matching that is carried out, the denominator of women can either be reverse-survived or women surviving and enumerated at the time of the census serve as denominators. Age-specific fertility rates are estimated by dividing birth estimates by number of women. The own-children method and its application in the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia have been elaborated in.numerous publications (Grabill and Cho, 1965; Cho, Palmore, and Saunders, 1968; Cho and Hahm, 1968; Cho, Grabill, and Bogue, 1970;Cho, 1968, 1970, 1971a, 1971b, 1971c,.1973, 1975).

TABLE 1 Number of households, by province, for the Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS), Phases I, II,and III Phase I Phase II Phase 111 3 (12 Feb.-30 March 1976) (26 Feb.-30 March 1976) (1 April 31 May 1976) Province Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total 1. Jakarta 9,000 na 9,000 3,000 na 3,000 1,500 na 1,500 2. West Java 8,700 36,000 44,700 3,000 5,334 8,334 500 1,782 2,282 3. Central Java 9,700 30,000 39,700 3,100 5,000 8,100 523 1,669 2,192 4. Yogyakarta 1,800 6,000 7,800 600 3,000 3,600 100 1,000 1,100 5. East Java 12,200 36,000 48,200 3,300 5,334 8,634 550 1,780 2,330 6. Bali 1,800 9,000 10,800 600 3,000 3,600 100 1,000 1,100 Total Java and Bali 43,200 117,000 160,200 13,600 21,668 35,268 3,273 7,231 10,504 7. Aceh 500 3,600 4,100 150 300 450 8. North Sumatra 3,000 3,600 6,600 1,000 900 1,900 9. West Sumatra 1,500 3,600 5,100 375 400 775 10. Riau 600 3,600 4,200 150 240 390 11. Jambi 800 3,600 4,400 200 200 400 12. South Sumatra 2,800 3,600 6,400 900 400 1,300 13. Bengkulu 200 3,600 3,800 50 200 250 14. Lampung 800 3,600 4,400 250 400 650 15. North Sulawesi 1,600 3,600 5,200 800 600 1,400 16. Central Sulawesi 400 3,600 4,000 200 400 600 17. South Sulawesi 4,600 3,600 8,200 2,100 1,800 3,900 18. Southeast Sulawesi 300 3,600 3,900 100 300 400

19. West Kalimantan 1,400 3,600 5,000 700 1,200 1,900 20. Central Kalimantan 700 3,600 4,300 275 600 875 21. South Kalimantan 2,600 3,600 6,200 1,300 900* 2. "00 22. East Kalimantan 1,800 3,600 5,400 875 300 1,. " 23. West Nusa Tenggara 400 4,500 4,900 300 3,000 3,300 24. East Nusa Tenggara 1,800 1,800 3,600 600 600 1,200 25. Maluku 3,600 u. 3,600 1,200 u 1,200 26. Irian Jaya 3,600 u 3,600 1,200 u 1,200 Total outside Java and Bali 33,000 63,900 96,900 12,725 12,740 25,465 Total Indonesia 76,200 180,900 257,100 26,325 34,408 60,733 u unavailable, na not applicable. a SUPAS Phase III conducted in Java and Bali only.

8 Typically the own-children technique is applied to census data. In Indonesia, the first phase of the SUPAS can be considered a kind of sample census, since it covers an unusually large percentage pf the population. Because of age inaccuracy and other kinds of errors in Indonesian census and survey data, the own-children method has been applied to obtain estimates for periods of several years rather than for every single year prior to the census or survey. By so grouping years, it is possible to reduce considerably the impact of age misstatements. In this paper, fertility rates for the period of 1967 70 are based on the own-children data tabulated from the 1971 census (children aged 1 to 4). (See Cho et al., 1976.) The estimates based on the SUPAS Phase I (children aged 6 to 9) were made using child mortality estimates derived from the 1971 census data on children ever born and children surviving. Preliminary fertility estimates for the period of 1971 75 are based on own-children data tabulated from Phase I of the SUPAS, also using the child mortality estimates derived from the 1971 census. Since the SUPAS Phase 1 contained only basic items, the ownchildren tabulation was produced using the data on age and ownmother status. The Brass-type estimation of child mortality requires data on children ever born and children surviving, which are contained in the SUPAS Phase II but not in the first phase. The SUPAS Phase I, however, has the advantage of larger sample sizes for regional fertility estimates. Adjustment for mortality of children and mothers, therefore, was based on mortality levels for the recent period prior to the 1971 census. We have made the assumption that mortality during the 1971 75 period was basically the same as during 1967 70. In subsequent work, we plan to recalculate the own-children fertility estimates using the child mortality estimates based on the proportion of children surviving as derived from the SUPAS Phase II. We believe that the mortality situation has not changed very much since the 1971 census. This paper has its meaning and value in that it provides timely, preliminary fertility estimates; it is our expectation that the final estimates will not differ significantly from those presented here. ESTIMATES AND EVALUATION Tables 2, 3, and 4 present fertility estimates for Indonesia and its major administrative and geographic subdivisions based on the 1971 census for the reference period of 1967-70 and an independent set of fertility estimates for the same areas and reference period derived from the 1976 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS I). For Indonesia as a whole, the estimated total fertility rate (TFR) derived from the two

TABLE 2 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region: 1967 70 and 1967 71 Estimated from the 1971 census and SUPAS I (1976) 1967-70 ASFR Province/region and source 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR 1967-71 TFR Jakarta SUPAS I 140 111 266 241 268 261 198 192 110 131 41 45 12 7 5,175 4,940 4,985 West Java 208 305 280 211 119 50 14 5,935 SUPASI 178 280 274 207 139.62 25 5,825 5,875 Central Java SUPASI 144 141 284 265 265 265 199 203. 115 131 47 51 12 16 5,330 5,360 5.348 Yogyakarta SUPASI 68 80 253 223 252 240 199 186 117 128 48 63 14 17 4,755.4,685 4,753 East Java SUPASI 149 137 246 235 225 228 169 166 96 112 45 47 14 22 4,720 4,735 4,762 Bali 134 298 300 229 137 67 26 5,955 SUPASI 105 261 281 216 154 82 37 5,680 5,678

TABLE 2 (continued) 1967-70 1967-71 Province/region and source 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR TFR Total Java and Bali 162 275 256 192 110 48 14 5,285 SUPAS1 145 256 255 191 127 54 21 5,245 5,272 Sumatra 3 154.324 324 260 157 69 20 6,540 SUPAS1 156 305 321 252 166 8T 30 6,555 6,569 Kalimantan b 158 288 286 223 131 69 23 5,890 SUPAS1 154 283 285 231 156 80 31 6,100 6,080 Sulawesi 0 129 289 298 244 148 71 25 6,020 SUPAS 1 135 284 302 247 167 79 33 6,235 6,250 Total Indonesia 155 286 273 211 124 55 17 5,605 SUPAS1 146 268 271 207 137 61 23 5,565 5,586 NOTE: Figures for the provinces of West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, MaJuku, and Irian Java are not given. a b c Sumatra includes the eight provinces of Aceh, Riau, Jambi, Bengkulu, Lampung, and North, West, and South Sumatra. Kalimantan includes the four provinces of West, Central, South, and East Kalimantan. Sulawesi includes the four provinces of North, Central, South, and Southeast Sulawesi.

11 TABLE 3 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region: 1967 70 Estimated from the 1971 census and SUPAS I (1976) Province or region and o source Jakarta SUPASI West Java SUPAS I Central Java SUPASI Yogyakarta SUPAS I East Java SUPAS I Bali SUPAS I 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR 140 111 130 123 82 90 32 43 107 103 89 67 266 241 279 269 235 236 192 203 224 230 265 238 268 261 286 277 244 249 241 232 211 220 288 273 198 192 229 206 183 187 190 189 154 161 209 183 110 131 131 138 103 108 114 125 82 90 117 136 41 45 52 57 37 41 42 52 35 31 39 51 12 7 13 13 7 9 13 16 9 13 12 11 5,175. 4,940 5,600 5,415 4,450 4,600 4,120 4,300 4,110 4,240 5,095 4,795 Total Java and Bali SUPASI 116 105 250 241 252 251 188 185 105 117 40 43 10 11 4,805 4,765 Sumatra SUPASI 97.107 289 290 329 332 268 249 161 160 65 76 16 24 6,125 6,190 Kalimantan SUPASI 145 137 282 258 287 288 217 237 127 168 65 71 15 24 5,690 5,815 Sulawesi SUPASI 97 105 244 252 271 274 222 225 125 128 52 58 14 23 5,125 5,325 Total Indonesia SUPAS I 115 107 263 252 270 269 207 202 118 127 47 52 12 14 5,110 5,115

12 TABLE 4 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region: 1967 70 Estimated from the 1971 census and SUPAS I (1976) )vinceor ASFR,ion and source jrce 15 IS 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR Jakarta na na na na na na na na SUPAS 1 na na na na na na na na West Java.222 310 281 210 118 50 14 6,025 SUPAS 1 187 284 275 209 140 63 27 5,925 Central Java 155 292 269 203 118 49 13 5,495 SUPAS1 149 270 269 206 135 53 17 5,495 Yogyakarta Ccn sus 78 267 255 202 118 49 14 4,195 SUPAS1 88 226 241 185 128 65 17 4,750 East Java 159 251 228 172 99 47 15 4,855 SUPAS 1 144 237 230 167 116 49 23 4,830 Bali 141 303 304 232 139 70 27 6,080 SUPAS 1 111 265 284 222 157 86 40 5,825 Total Java and Bali 175 282 259 194 112 49 14 5,425 SUPAS 1 155 261.257 193 130 56 23 5,375 Sumatra 169 332 324 259 157 70 21 6,660 SUPAS 1 169 309 318 254 167 83 32 6,660 Kalimantan 164 293.289 227 134 71 25 6,015 SUPAS 1 165 290 283 228 155 83 34 6,190 Sulawesi 136 299 304 248 153 75 27 6,210 SUPAS 1 143 291 309 253 176 83 35 6,450 Total 1 ndonesia 167 293 275 213 126 57 18 5,745 SUPAS1 156 273 273 209 140 63 25 5,695 na not applicable.

13 independent sources agrees amazingly well 5,605 based on the census as compared with the survey estimate of 5,565 (Table 2). This agreement is extremely robust, considering that these estimates are based on two different sets of enumerations and two different segments of age. The 1971 census estimate is based on own children aged 1 to 4, and the 1976 survey estimate is based on those aged 6 to 9. Agreement of the estimated total fertility between the two sources of data is also very good for the provincial and regional breakdowns within Indonesia (see Figure 3). For example, within Java and Bali the largest deviation is less than 5 percent and for Java and Bali together the agreement can be said to be nearly perfect with the TFR given as 5,285 in the census and as 5,245 in the survey. Table 2 also shows the TFR estimated for the period 1967-71 using the SUPAS I data on own children aged 5-9 years. The reason for presenting this set of TFRs for a slightly different and longer period is to indicate the negligible difference in the estimated TFR even when children five years old are included in the calculation. Age data for Indonesia have had the problem of age misstatement and heaping at ages ending in 5 or 0. We find, in the SUPAS I, that age heaping below age 10 is greatly reduced and we can detect little heaping around age 5. Outside Java the sample size of the survey, combined with the difficulties of managing and supervising the survey enumeration work, resulted in less agreement between the two sources. Deviations, however, are within the reasonable bounds of only slightly more than 5 percent. For age-specific fertility rates, the agreement between the two sets of data is remarkably good except for the two age groups at the beginning and end of the reproductive age span, 15 19 and 45 49. Deviations appear to be minor for Indonesia as a whole and for most of the provinces, but both Jakarta and West Java show a considerable amount of deviation. It is probably due to the large volume of migration into Jakarta from surrounding West Java. Migration is selectively high for young women, and probably results in a considerable extent of separation of children from their mothers. The deviation for the 45 49 age group has little impact on the overall fertility rate because fertility of women in this age category constitutes a small proportion of the total. We have seen fairly convincing agreement between the fertility rate5 based on the census and the survey for the same reference pcriod-for total rates as well as by age categories. This agreement encourages us to use the estimated fertility rates from the survey for more recent periods. For example, the estimated fertility rates from the SUPAS Phase 1 can serve as a tentative indicator of fertility change over the two periods of 1967-70 and 1971-75 (see Tables 5, 6, and 7). For

14 FIGURE 3 Scatter diagram of total fertility rate estimated from SUPAS I (1976) and the 1971 census: Indonesia, 1967-70 1 Jakarta 2 West Java 3 Central Java 4 Yogyakarta 5 East Java 6 Bali 7 Sumatra 8 Kalimantan 9 Sulawesi / / / 2 /. 8 /.6 / /* I ndonesia Java and Bali^ / /Indonesia Java and Bali Urban Rural 4 ^ 5 6 Fertility rate estimated from 1971 census Indonesia as a whole, we find there is a slight (7 percent) decline of fertility between the two time periods, from a total fertility rate of 5.6 to 5.2. For Java and Bali the TFR fell from 5.2 to 4.9, a decline of 6 percent. Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Sumatra also show some decline in fertility, but we should be more cautious about the data for areas outside Java and Bali, where unrecognized boundaries of many of the 1971 census blocks may have caused greater underenumeration. Looking at the age-specific fertility of Indonesian women, we find declines ranging between 6 and 14 percent in the age groups of 15-19, 25-29, 35-39, and 40-44, and a substantial decline (22 percent)

15 TABLE 5 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban and rural populations of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: 1967-70 and 1971-75 Province or ASFR 1 W^IWII U 1 1 v period 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR Jakarta 1967-70 111 241 261 192 131 45 7 4,940 1971-75 107 241 252 185 113 46 12 4,780 West Java 1967-70 178 280 274 207 139 62 25 5,825 1971-75 164 285 271 211 119 59 19 5,640 Central Java 1967-70 141 265 265 203 131 51 16 5,360 1971-75 119 261 244 187 112 59 11 4,915 Yogyakarta 1967-70 80 223 240 186 128 63 17 4,685 1971-75 66 215 237 194 110 57 15 4,470 East Java 1967-70 137 235 228 166 112 47 22 4,735 1971-75 125 229 206 155 88 44 17 4,320 Bali 1967-70 105 261 281 216 154 82 37 5,680 1971-75 98 255 260 203 127 71 32 5,230 Total Java and Bali 1967-70 145 256 255 191 127 54 21 5,245 1971-75 130 254 240 183 106 51 16 4,900 Sumatra 1967-70 156 305 321 252 166 81 30 6,555 1971-75 123 305 298 246 149 73 25 6,095 Kalimantan 1967-70 154 283 285 231 156 80 31 6,100 1971-75 129 269 278 215 134 71 26 5,610 Sulawesi 1967-70 135 284 302 247 167 79 33 6,235 1971-75 112 274 299 239 156 78 25 5,915 Total Indonesia 1967-70 146 268, 271 207 137 61 23 5,565 1971-75 127 265 256 199 118 57 18 5,200

16 TABLE 6 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the urban population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: 1967-70 and 1971-75 Province or ASFR I vgiui i ai I U period 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR Jakarta 1967-70 111 241 261 192 131 45 7 4,940 1971-75 107 241 252 185 113 46 12 4,780 West Java 1967-70 123 269 277 206 138 57 13 5,415 1971-75 108 250 267 212 114 49 15 5,075 Central Java 1967-70 90 236 249 187 108 41 9 4,600 1971-75 76 224 244 178 102 37 7 4,340 Yogyakarta 1967-70 43 203 232 189 125 52 16 4,300 1971-75 32 178 223 172 102 55 19 3,905 East Java 1967-70 103 230 220 161 90 31 13 4,240 1971-75 87 211 216 148 84 30 10 3,930 Bali 1967-70 67 238 273 183 136 51. 11 4,795 1971-75 62 204 236 161 92 53 9 4,085 Total Java and Bali 1967-70 105 241 251 185 117 43 11 4,765 1971-75 94 229 243 177 102 41 11 4,485 Sumatra 1967-70 107 290 332 249 160 76 24 6,190 1971-75 80 204 291 237 146 58 19 5,475 Kalimantan 1967-70 137 258 288 237 168 71 24 5,815 1971-75 116 250 296 224 138 63 15 5,510 Sulawesi 1967-70 105 252 274 225 128 58 23 5,325 1971-75 81 233 261 200 123 51 13 4,810 Total Indonesia 1967-70 107 252 269 202 127 52 14 5,115 1971-75 92 237 256 193 114 46 13 4,755

17 TABLE 7 Age-specific fertility and total fertility rates for the rural population of Indonesia, by province or region, estimated from SUPAS I: 1967-70 and 1971-75 period 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFR Jakarta na na na na na na na na West Java 1967-70 187 284 275 209 140 63 27 5,925 1971-75 176 292 273 212 121 61 20 5,770 Central Java 1967-70 149 270 269 206 135 53 17 5,495 1971-75 126 267 246 190 115 51 12 5,035 Yogya karta 1967-70 88 226 241 185 128 65 17 4,750. 1971-75 76 224 241 199 112 58 15 4,625 East Java 1967-70 144 237 230 167 116 49 23.4,830 1971-75 133 234 206 156 89 46 18 4,410 Bali 1967-70 111 265 284 222 157 86 40 5,825 1971-75 103 264 265 209 131 73 35 5,400 Total Java. and Bali 1967-70 155 261 257" 193 130 56 23 5,375 1971-75 141 261 240 185 108 53 17 5,025 Sumatra 1967-70 169 309 318 254 167 83 32 6,660 1971-75 136 316 300 248 150 77 26 6,265 Kalimantan i 1967-70 165 290 283 228 155 * 83 34 6,190 1971-75 133 275 271 212 133 73 29 5,630 Sulawesi 1967-70 143 291 309 253 176 83 35 6,450 1971-75 121 285 308 248 164 85 28 6,195 Total Indonesia 1967-70 156 273 273 209 140 63 25 5,695 1971-75 137 273 258 202 119 59 20 5,340 na not applicable.

18 in the least fertile age group of 45 49, whereas little change is seen for the age groups of 20 24 and 30 34 (1 and 4 percent, respectively). The same pattern is also true for Java and Bali. There appear to be no significant differences in the age patterns of fertility decline for urban and rural areas. Table 8 presents fertility estimates based on Phase I of the survey and on the World Fertility Survey Phase of the SUPAS. It shows encouraging agreement between the first and third phases. TABLE 8 Estimates of total fertility rates for Java and Bali based on the 1971 census, SUPAS Phase I (1976), and SUPAS Phase III (1976) Period (and source) Jakarta West Java Central Java Yogyakarta East Java Bali Total Java and Bali 1967-70 (1971 census) 5.2 5.9 5.3 4.8 4.7 5.9 5.3 1967-70 (1976 SUPAS 1) 4.9 5.8 5.4 4.7 4.7 5.7 5.2 1967-71 (1976 SUPAS III) 5.9 6.0 5.3 4.4 4.6 5.8 5.3 CONCLUSION Indonesia has been regarded by many demographers as a country without sufficiently accurate demographic information to indicate either current levels of fertility or trends over time. Although the demographic data for Indonesia are not of as good quality as those for some other Asian countries, such as South Korea and the Philippines, we believe that data from different surveys and censuses can be so related and analyzed as to derive reasonable estimates of recent fertility levels as well as tentatively to indicate recent changes. Utilization of the SUPAS in connection with the previous census is one part of the demographical strategy for Indonesia. On the basis of the analysis presented in this paper our conclusions regarding the demography of Indonesia are much more positive now. The analytical results presented in this paper demonstrate that, although accurate measurements of fertility for every single calendar year preceding the census by single years of age of mother cannot be

attained for Indonesia, measures of overall fertility and by broad age groups of mother can be derived for the reference period of four to five years. The independent check turned out to be much more convincing when also applied to regional variations in the levels of fertility. 19

21 REFERENCES Cho, Lee-Jay 1968 Income and differentials in current fertility. Demography 5(1): 198-211. 1970 Estimating Recent Fertility from Data on Own Cfuldren: West Malaysia, 1958-67. Papers of the East-West Population Institute, no. 8. Honolulu: East-West Center. 1971a 1971b Korea: estimating current fertility from the 1966 census. Studies in Family Planning 2(3):74-78. On estimating annual birth rates from census data on children. In Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section, pp. 86 96. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association. 197 lc Preliminary estimates of fertility for Korea. Population Index 37:3-8. 1973 The own-children approach to fertility estimation: an elaboration. In International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, International Population Conference, Liege 1973, vol. 2:263-78. 1975 Estimates of Current Fertility for the Republic of Korea and Its Geographical Subdivisions: 1959-1970. Seoul: Yonsei University Press. Cho, Lee-Jay; Wilson H. Grabill;and Donald J. Bogue 1970 Differential Current Fertility in the United States. Chicago: Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago. Cho, Lee-Jay, and Man Jun Hahm 1968 Recent change in fertility rates of the Korean population. Demography 5(2):690-98. Cho, Lee-Jay; James A. Palmore; and Lyle Saunders 1968 Recent fertility trends in Malaysia. Demography 5(2):732-44. Cho, Lee-Jay, Sam Suharto, Geoffrey McNicoll, and S.G. Made.Mamas 1976 Estimates of Fertility and Mortality in Indonesia: Based on the 1971 Population. Jakarta: Biro Pusat Statistik. Grabill, Wilson H., and Lee Jay Cho 1965 Methodology for the measurement of current fertility from population data on young children. Demography 2:50-73.

RECENT AVAILABLE PAPERS OF THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE 28 The demographic situation in Indonesia, by Geoffrey McNicoll and Si Gde Made Mamas, December 1973, 59 + vii pp. 30 Demographic research in Japan, 1955 70: a survey and selected bibliography, by Y. Scott Matsumoto, April 1974, 78 + v pp. 32 The value of children in Asia and the United States: comparative perspectives, by James T. Fawcett et al., July 1974, 69 + vii pp. 33 The present and prospective state of policy approaches to fertility, by Ozzie G. Simmons and Lyle Saunders, June 1975, 25 + v pp. 34 Female labor force participation in a modernizing society: Malaya and Singapore, 1 921-1957, by Monica S. Fong, June 1975, 39 + vii pp. 35 Fertility socialization research in the United States: a progress report, by Susan O. Gustavus, July 1975, 19 + v pp. 36 Data relevant to socialization in the U.S. national fertility surveys, by Larry L. Bumpass, December 1 975, 14 + v pp. 37 Some sociological suggestions concerning the reduction of fertility in developing countries, by Norman B. Ryder, January 1976, 14 + v pp. 38 Future autobiographies: expectations of marriage, children, and careers, by Nancy E. Williamson, Sandra L. Putnam, and H. Regina Wurthmann, February 1 976, 29 + v pp. 39 The development of family size and sex composition norms among U.S. children, by Gerald E. Markle and Robert F. Wait, September 1976, 23 + vii pp. 40 Urbanization in the Philippines: historical and comparative perspectives, by Ernesto M. Pernia, November 1976, 38 + v pp. 41 A method of decomposing urban population growth and an application to Philippine data, by Ernesto M. Pernia, December 1976, 26 + v pp. 42 Methodological difficulties encountered in using own-children data: illustrations from the United States, by Ronald R. Rindfuss, February 1977, 17 + v pp. 43 The fertility of migrants to urban places in Thailand, by Sidney Goldstein and Penporn Tirasawat, April 1977, 49 + v pp. 44 The demographic situation in the Philippines: an assessment in 1977, by Mercedes B. Concepcion and Peter C. Smith, June 1 977, 75 + vii pp. 45 The demographic situation in Thailand, by Fred Arnold, Robert D. Retherford, and Anuri Wanglee, July 1977, 35 + vii pp. 46 The role of migration and population distribution in Japan's demographic transition, by Toshio Kuroda, July 1977, 17 + v pp. 47 The recent fertility decline in the Chiang Mai area of Thailand, by Tieng Pardthaisong, February 1978, 36 + vii pp. 48 Spatial analysis of family planning program effects in Taiwan, 1966 72, by Albert I. Hermalin, April 1978, 39 + vii pp. 49 Gainsfrom population control: results from an econometric model, by Daniel B. Suits and Andrew Mason, April 1978, 22 + v pp. 50 The economic value of children in Asia and Africa: comparative perspectives, by Helen Ware, April 1978, 36 + v pp. 51 Rural-urban migration and social mobility: studies of three South Korean cities, by Man-Gap Lee and Herbert R. Barringer, May 1978, 44 + vii pp.

THE EAST-WEST CENTER-officially known as the Center for Cultural and Technical Interchange Between East and West is a national educational institution established in Hawaii by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to promote better relations and understanding between the United States and the nations of Asia and the Pacific through cooperative study, training, and research. The Center is administered by a public, nonprofit corporation whose international Board of Governors consists of distinguished scholars, business leaders, and public servants. Each year more than 1,500 men and women from many nations and cultures participate in Center programs that seek cooperative solutions to problems of mutual consequence to East and West. Working with the Center's multidisciplinary and multicultural staff, participants include visiting scholars and researchers; leaders and professionals from the academic, government, and business communities; and graduate degree students, most of whom are enrolled at the University of Hawaii. For each Center participant from the United States, two participants are sought from the Asian and Pacific area. Center programs are conducted by institutes addressing problems of communication, culture learning, environment and policy, population, and resource systems. A limited number of "open" grants are available to degree scholars and research fellows whose academic interests are not encompassed by institute programs. The U.S. Congress provides basic funding for Center programs and a variety of awards to participants. Because of the cooperative nature of Center programs, financial support and cost-sharing are also provided by Asian and Pacific governments, regional agencies, private enterprise, and foundations. The Center is on land adjacent to and provided by the University of Hawaii. THE EAST-WEST POPULATION INSTITUTE, established as a unit of the East-West Center in 1969 with the assistance of a grant from the Agency for International Development, carries out multidisciplinary research, training, and related activities in the field of population, placing emphasis on economic, social, psychological, and environmental aspects of population problems in Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. East-West Population Institute East-West Center 1 777 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 Director Lee-Jay Cho Publications Officer Sandra E. Ward Editor Milann Gannaway Production Assistant Lois M. Bender Cartographer Gregory Chu