Economic & Housing Market Outlook

Economic & Housing Market Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentations to NAR Annual Conference Boston, MA November 2, 2018

Existing Home Sales Since 2016 5800000 5700000 5600000 5500000 5400000 5300000 5200000 5100000 5000000 2016 - Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 - Mar 2016 - Apr 2016 - May 2016 - Jun 2016 - Jul 2016 - Aug 2016 - Sep 2016 - Oct 2016 - Nov 2016 - Dec 2017 - Jan 2017 - Feb 2017 - Mar 2017 - Apr 2017 - May 2017 - Jun 2017 - Jul 2017 - Aug 2017 - Sep 2017 - Oct 2017 - Nov 2017 - Dec 2018 - Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 - Mar 2018 - Apr 2018 - May 2018 - Jun 2018 - Jul 2018 - Aug 2018 - Sep

Existing Home Sales Since 2009 6000000 5500000 5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2013 - Oct 2014 - Jan 2014 - Apr 2014 - Jul 2014 - Oct 2015 - Jan 2015 - Apr 2015 - Jul 2015 - Oct 2016 - Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 - Jul 2016 - Oct 2017 - Jan 2017 - Apr 2017 - Jul 2017 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2018 - Apr 2018 - Jul

New Home Sales Since 2016 750 In thousands 700 650 600 550 500 2016 - Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 - Mar 2016 - Apr 2016 - May 2016 - Jun 2016 - Jul 2016 - Aug 2016 - Sep 2016 - Oct 2016 - Nov 2016 - Dec 2017 - Jan 2017 - Feb 2017 - Mar 2017 - Apr 2017 - May 2017 - Jun 2017 - Jul 2017 - Aug 2017 - Sep 2017 - Oct 2017 - Nov 2017 - Dec 2018 - Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 - Mar 2018 - Apr 2018 - May 2018 - Jun 2018 - Jul 2018 - Aug 2018 - Sep

New Home Sales Since 2009 800 700 In thousands 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2013 - Oct 2014 - Jan 2014 - Apr 2014 - Jul 2014 - Oct 2015 - Jan 2015 - Apr 2015 - Jul 2015 - Oct 2016 - Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 - Jul 2016 - Oct 2017 - Jan 2017 - Apr 2017 - Jul 2017 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2018 - Apr 2018 - Jul

Wobbly Stock Market? Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 2016 27000 25000 23000 21000 19000 17000 15000 2016 - Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 - Mar 2016 - Apr 2016 - May 2016 - Jun 2016 - Jul 2016 - Aug 2016 - Sep 2016 - Oct 2016 - Nov 2016 - Dec 2017 - Jan 2017 - Feb 2017 - Mar 2017 - Apr 2017 - May 2017 - Jun 2017 - Jul 2017 - Aug 2017 - Sep 2017 - Oct 2017 - Nov 2017 - Dec 2018 - Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 - Mar 2018 - Apr 2018 - May 2018 - Jun 2018 - Jul 2018 - Aug 2018 - Sep 2019 - Oct

Wobbly Stock Market? Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2009 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2013 - Oct 2014 - Jan 2014 - Apr 2014 - Jul 2014 - Oct 2015 - Jan 2015 - Apr 2015 - Jul 2015 - Oct 2016 - Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 - Jul 2016 - Oct 2017 - Jan 2017 - Apr 2017 - Jul 2017 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2018 - Apr 2018 - Jul 2019 - Oct

Total Home Sales in 2018: Plunging? 2017 The Best in Decade 2018 Year-to-Date (over comparable period) New Home Sales 613,000 +3.6% Existing Home Sales 5,510,000-2.1% Total 6,123,000-1.5%

90% with Price Gains 10% with Price Declines 150 Metro Prices Lower-end Stronger Price Gains Upper-end Weaker Price Gains or Price Cuts Near Downtown Stronger Price Gains Distant Suburbs and Rural Areas Softer Gains

Prices Rising and Rising

500 Rising Home Prices (Constant Quality Index) San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Dallas 400 300 200 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Housing Wealth Gain on a Typical Home Purchase Year Bought Median Price at the Time of Purchase (September) Wealth Gain to 2018 (September) 2011 $165,300 $92,800 2012 $178,300 $79,800 2013 $198,500 $59,600 2014 $209,100 $49,000 2015 $221,700 $36,400 2016 $233,300 $24,800

Wealth: From 2000 to 2016 to 2018 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Renters Homeowners

Real Estate Wealth = Asset - Mortgage 35000 30000 In $billion 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2000 2000 - Q3 2001 2001 - Q3 2002 2002 - Q3 2003 2003 - Q3 2004 2004 - Q3 2005 2005 - Q3 2006 2006 - Q3 2007 2007 - Q3 2008 2008 - Q3 2009 2009 - Q3 2010 2010 - Q3 2011 2011 - Q3 2012 2012 - Q3 2013 2013 - Q3 2014 2014 - Q3 2015 2015 - Q3 2016 2016 - Q3 2017 2017 - Q3 2018

New Bubble? Small One?

A New Bubble? Since Home Prices Outpaced Rent Growth From 2012 Red outpaced Blue since 2012 (year over year % growth) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0 2009 - Jan 2009 - May 2009 - Sep 2010 - Jan 2010 - May 2010 - Sep 2011 - Jan 2011 - May 2011 - Sep 2012 - Jan 2012 - May 2012 - Sep 2013 - Jan 2013 - May 2013 - Sep 2014 - Jan 2014 - May 2014 - Sep 2015 - Jan 2015 - May 2015 - Sep 2016 - Jan 2016 - May 2016 - Sep 2017 - Jan 2017 - May 2017 - Sep 2018 - Jan 2018 - May 2018 - Sep

Diminished Optimism about Buying 50 NAR Survey of Consumers % Strongly indicating Good Time to Buy 45 40 35 30 2016 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4 2017 2017 - Q2 2017 - Q3 2017 - Q4 2018 2018 - Q2 2018 - Q3

National Pending Sales Index (seasonally adjusted) 116.0 114.0 112.0 110.0 108.0 106.0 104.0 102.0 100.0 2016 - Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 - Jul 2016 - Oct 2017 - Jan 2017 - Apr 2017 - Jul 2017 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2018 - Apr 2018 - Jul Source: NAR

Increased Consideration to Sell 60 NAR Survey of Consumers % Strongly indicating Good Time to Sell 50 40 30 20 2016 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4 2017 2017 - Q2 2017 - Q3 2017 - Q4 2018 2018 - Q2 2018 - Q3

Inventory of Homes Finally Turning Higher 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2013 - Oct 2014 - Jan 2014 - Apr 2014 - Jul 2014 - Oct 2015 - Jan 2015 - Apr 2015 - Jul 2015 - Oct 2016 - Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 - Jul 2016 - Oct 2017 - Jan 2017 - Apr 2017 - Jul 2017 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2018 - Apr 2018 - Jul Source: NAR

REALTORS Report on Buyer and Seller Traffic 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 46 40 2009 REALTOR Buyer Traffic Index REALTOR Seller Traffic Index 67 70 72 63 60 63 53 54 57 41 39 39 42 41 43 44 45 44 45 44 31 34 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Mar Apri-Jun Jul-Sep

REALTORS Buyer Traffic Index

20 Months Supply and Price Change Inverse Relationship If Months Supply >7 then Price Decline 14 15 10 5 0 2000 - Jan -5 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2016 - Jan 2018 - Jan -10-15 12 10 8 6 4 2-20 Price Change Months Supply 0

Housing Conditions in 2004 and 2018 Comparison of Housing Market Conditions in 2004 and 2018 Housing market indicators: 2004 2018 Housing starts, SAAR (millions) 1.9 (Jan 2004) 1.2 (Aug 2018) Existing homes available for sale, EOP (millions) 2.15 (Jan 2004) 1.88 (Sep 2018) Months' supply 4.3 (Jan 2004) 4.4 (Sep 2018) 30-year fixed mortgage rate (%) 5.74 (Jan 2004) 4.63 (Sep 2018) Median price of existing home sales, y/y change (%) 7.6 (Jan 2004) 4.2 (Sep 2018) Rental vacancy rate (%) 10.4 (2004 Q1) 6.8 (2018 Q2) Homeowner vacancy rate (%) 1.7 (2004 Q1) 1.5 (2018 Q2) Homeownership rate (%) 68 (2004 Q1) 64.3 (2018 Q2) Labor market indicators: Unemployment rate (%) 5.6 (Jan 2004) 3.7 (Aug 2018) Total non-farm employment, SA (millions) 130.7 (Jan 2004) 149.5 (Aug 2018)

Housing Conditions in 2004 and 2018 - Continued Comparison of Housing Market Conditions in 2004 and 2018 Household debt and bank credit indicators: 2004 2018 ARMs, as a percent of loan applications (%) 28.8 (Jan 2004) 6.5 (Sep 2018) Home equity revolving accounts (millions) 16.7 (Jan 2004) 15.6 (Aug 2018) Mortgage originations with credit score < 620 (billion $) 79.3 (2004 Q1) 16.1 (2018 Q2) Households and non-profit organizations mortgage (Tril $) 7.09 (2004 Q1) 10.2 (2018 Q2) Households and non-profit organizations mortgage to GDP (%) 59 (2004 Q1) 50 (2018 Q2) Household debt service ratio (%) 12.2 (2004 Q1) 9.8 (2018 Q2) Mortgage, credit card, and bank loan to disposable income (%) 105.0 (2004 Q1) 93.0 (2018 Q2) Mortgage debt to disposable income (%) 81.0 (2004 Q1) 66.0 (2018 Q2) Mortgages in foreclosure inventory 490,708 (2004 Q1) 402,540 (2018 Q2) Foreclosure inventory as a percent of loans (%) 1.3 (2004 Q1) 1.1 (2018 Q2) Commercial bank loan to deposit ratio (%) 90.4 (Jan 2004) 76.9 (Sep 2018) Data sources: National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Freddie Mac, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mortgage Bankers Association, with data downloaded from Haver Analytics.

Affordability Index Weakest in 10 years, but well above 2004 250 200 150 100 50 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr 2012 - Nov 2013 - Jun 2014 - Jan 2014 - Aug 2015 - Mar 2015 - Oct 2016 - May 2016 - Dec 2017 - Jul 2018 - Feb Source: NAR

Inflation-Adjusted Home Price Index (Within two arrows with 1% and 2% above CPI) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul 2015 - Jan 2015 - Jul 2016 - Jan 2016 - Jul 2017 - Jan 2017 - Jul 2018 - Jan

Median Days on Market 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011 - May 2011 - Aug 2011 - Nov 2012 - Feb 2012 - May 2012 - Aug 2012 - Nov 2013 - Feb 2013 - May 2013 - Aug 2013 - Nov 2014 - Feb 2014 - May 2014 - Aug 2014 - Nov 2015 - Feb 2015 - May 2015 - Aug 2015 - Nov 2016 - Feb 2016 - May 2016 - Aug 2016 - Nov 2017 - Feb 2017 - May 2017 - Aug 2017 - Nov 2018 - Feb 2018 - May 2018 - Aug

% of Offers At or Above Asking Price 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2016 - Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 - Mar 2016 - Apr 2016 - May 2016 - Jun 2016 - Jul 2016 - Aug 2016 - Sep 2016 - Oct 2016 - Nov 2016 - Dec 2017 - Jan 2017 - Feb 2017 - Mar 2017 - Apr 2017 - May 2017 - Jun 2017 - Jul 2017 - Aug 2017 - Sep 2017 - Oct 2017 - Nov 2017 - Dec 2018 - Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 - Mar 2018 - Apr 2018 - May 2018 - Jun 2018 - Jul 2018 - Aug

20 10-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 Mortgage Applications for Home Purchase is Positive, Though Refinancings Collapsing 0 Jan 6 2017 Jan 27 2017 Feb 17 2017 % change from one year ago Mar 10 2017 Mar 31 2017 Apr 21 2017 May 12 2017 Jun 2 2017 Jun 23 2017 Jul 14 2017 Aug 4 2017 Aug 25 2017 Sep 15 2017 Oct 6 2017 Oct 27 2017 Nov 17 2017 Dec 8 2017 Dec 29 2017 Jan 19 2018 Feb 9 2018 Mar 2 2018 Mar 23 2018 Apr 13 2018 May 4 2018 May 25 2018 Jun 15 2018 Jul 6 2018 Jul 27 2018 Aug 17 2018 Sep 7 2018 Purchase Refinance

Early Stage of Delinquency: 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 Late Mortgage Payment (30 to 59 days) 2000 2000 - Q3 2001 2001 - Q3 2002 2002 - Q3 2003 2003 - Q3 2004 2004 - Q3 2005 2005 - Q3 2006 2006 - Q3 2007 2007 - Q3 2008 2008 - Q3 2009 2009 - Q3 2010 2010 - Q3 2011 2011 - Q3 2012 2012 - Q3 2013 2013 - Q3 2014 2014 - Q3 2015 2015 - Q3 2016 2016 - Q3 2017 2017 - Q3 2018

Last Stage of Delinquency: In Foreclosure 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2000 - Q3 2001 2001 - Q3 2002 2002 - Q3 2003 2003 - Q3 2004 2004 - Q3 2005 2005 - Q3 2006 2006 - Q3 2007 2007 - Q3 2008 2008 - Q3 2009 2009 - Q3 2010 2010 - Q3 2011 2011 - Q3 2012 2012 - Q3 2013 2013 - Q3 2014 2014 - Q3 2015 2015 - Q3 2016 2016 - Q3 2017 2017 - Q3 2018

Homeowners 79 77 75 73 71 69 67 65 2000 In millions 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Renters 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 2000 In millions 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 Rent Growth Solid but now Slowing? (year over year % growth) 2009 - Jan 2009 - May 2009 - Sep 2010 - Jan 2010 - May 2010 - Sep 2011 - Jan 2011 - May 2011 - Sep 2012 - Jan 2012 - May 2012 - Sep 2013 - Jan 2013 - May 2013 - Sep 2014 - Jan 2014 - May 2014 - Sep 2015 - Jan 2015 - May 2015 - Sep 2016 - Jan 2016 - May 2016 - Sep 2017 - Jan 2017 - May 2017 - Sep 2018 - Jan 2018 - May 2018 - Sep

Global Comparison: Canada and New Zealand at Risk?

Mortgage Rates to Rise Permanently (around 170 basis points spread above 10 year Treasury) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 - Jan 2010 - May 2010 - Sep 2011 - Jan 2011 - May 2011 - Sep 2012 - Jan 2012 - May 2012 - Sep 2013 - Jan 2013 - May 2013 - Sep 2014 - Jan 2014 - May 2014 - Sep 2015 - Jan 2015 - May 2015 - Sep 2016 - Jan 2016 - May 2016 - Sep 2017 - Jan 2017 - May 2017 - Sep 2018 - Jan 2018 - May 2018 - Sep

The Fed Gone Crazy Fed Funds Rate from zero to 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr 2013 - Jul 2013 - Oct 2014 - Jan 2014 - Apr 2014 - Jul 2014 - Oct 2015 - Jan 2015 - Apr 2015 - Jul 2015 - Oct 2016 - Jan 2016 - Apr 2016 - Jul 2016 - Oct 2017 - Jan 2017 - Apr 2017 - Jul 2017 - Oct 2018 - Jan 2018 - Apr 2018 - Jul

Consumer Inflation Stabilizing (year over year % growth) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 Core CPI 2010 - Jan 2010 - May 2010 - Sep 2011 - Jan 2011 - May 2011 - Sep 2012 - Jan 2012 - May 2012 - Sep 2013 - Jan 2013 - May 2013 - Sep 2014 - Jan 2014 - May 2014 - Sep 2015 - Jan 2015 - May 2015 - Sep 2016 - Jan 2016 - May 2016 - Sep 2017 - Jan 2017 - May 2017 - Sep 2018 - Jan 2018 - May 2018 - Sep

Realtors Gross Income Distribution 50 40 30 20 10 0 % Under $25000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000 $250,000 Over $250000

Buyers of Multi-Generational Housing Type of Home Purchased Detached singlefamily, 83% Townhouse/row house, 5% Duplex/apartment/ condo, 4% Other, 8% Reasons to Purchase Home Change in family situation (e.g. marriage, birth of child, divorce, etc.) Desire to be closer to friends/family/relatives Desire for larger home Desire to own a home of own 10% 10% 10% 29% Median Age: 51 Median Income: $89,500 31% are first-time buyers 83% are buyers of previously owned homes 84% bought through an agent/broker Median square feet of home purchased: 2,070 Median home price: $264,100 12% of all respondents Reasons for purchasing multi-generational home: Aging family members: 44% Young adults over age 18:37% Unique to these buyers: 39% had children under the age of 18 in the home 58% found the quality of the neighborhood to be important 63% were married couples, 19%single females, 7% single males, 5% unmarried couples 49% were located in a suburb/subdivision 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Buyer, Self, or Spouse are Active in the Armed Forces or Veteran Median Age: 31 Median Income:$80,000 52% are first-time buyers 84% are buyers of previously owned homes 91% bought through an agent/broker Median square feet of home purchased: 1,960 Median home price: $251,000 Unique to these buyers: 24% purchased because of a job-related relocation or move Convenience to job influencing neighborhood factor for 60% 14% purchased a multigenerational home 3% of all respondents Median Age: 59 Median Income: $89,000 19% are first-time buyers 82% are buyers of previously owned homes 86% bought through an agent/broker Median square feet of home purchased: 1,950 Median home price: $250,000 Unique to these buyers: 18% of all respondents 58% lived in ownedhome prior to their recent home purchase 83% purchased a detached single-family home 15% purchased a multigenerational home 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Realtors Property Ownership 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Non-Owner Homeowner 2nd Home Commercial

Real Estate and Marijuana Property management and lingering smell Commercial real estate and development Medical use and Fair Housing Laws Non-bank cold cash and money laundering

Good Economy Job Additions for 8 straight years Unemployment Rate 3.7% Record High Job Openings Historically Low Jobless Claims High Net Worth Wages picking up

Risk Factors International Trade Wars Inverted Yield Curve Shift to Snowballing Pessimism

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 International Trade (Growing 5% per year, twice as fast as GDP) In $billion 2000 2000 - Q3 2001 2001 - Q3 2002 2002 - Q3 2003 2003 - Q3 2004 2004 - Q3 2005 2005 - Q3 2006 2006 - Q3 2007 2007 - Q3 2008 2008 - Q3 2009 2009 - Q3 2010 2010 - Q3 2011 2011 - Q3 2012 2012 - Q3 2013 2013 - Q3 2014 2014 - Q3 2015 2015 - Q3 2016 2016 - Q3 2017 2017 - Q3 2018 Imports Exports

Yield Curve Inversion? 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 - Jan 1981 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1983 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1985 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1987 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1989 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1991 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1993 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1995 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1997 - Jan 1998 - Jan 1999 - Jan 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2013 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2015 - Jan 2016 - Jan 2017 - Jan 2018 - Jan 10-year 2-Year

Forecast

National Existing Home Sales Little Drop in 18; Little Gain in 19 and 20 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Forecast of Home Sales: Boring! Existing Home Sales Newly Constructed Total 2016 5,450,000 561,000 6.0 million 2017 5,510,000 613,000 6.1 million 2018 forecast 5,345,000 623,000 6.0 million 2019 forecast 5,400,000 690,000 6.1 million 2020 forecast 5,550,000 740,000 6.3 million 2000 Reference 5,173,000 877,000 6.1 million

Forecast of Home Price Median Home Price % change 2016 $233,800 5.1% 2017 $247,200 5.7% 2018 forecast $258,900 4.7% 2019 forecast $266,800 3.1% 2020 forecast $274,000 2.7%

Forecast of Median Home Price: $15,000 wealth gain in two years 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

REALTORS Median Expected Price Change in the Next 12 Months

Forecast Dependent Upon Rising Single-Family Housing Starts 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 In thousand units 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Raise Awareness About Housing Underproduction

Local Solutions to Consider

On Common Ground

Any Common Ground? Photos from respective Twitter accounts

Any Common Ground? HUD Funding to localities be tied to YIMBY (not NIMBY) Housing Trust Funding to localities be tied to YIMBY (not NIMBY) Photos from respective Twitter accounts

Thank You!