Lisa B. Beever Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference July 15, 2010
Climate Ready Estuaries Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA Barnegat Bay NEP www.epa.gov/cre
Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and their local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.
Projects in support of SG-Q Regional Vulnerability Assessment (2007-2009) Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008-2009) Vulnerability Assessment Lite (2009-2010) CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009-2010) Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE 2009-2010) Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009-2010) Salt Marsh Adaptation (2009-2012) Seagrass response to SLR (2009) Lee County Resiliency Plan (2009-2010) Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE 2010-2011) Bonita Springs Adaptation Plan (Battelle pilot)
Existing Env. Indicators EPA Required 54 named 12 priority Currently filling gaps for 12. No SG indicators.
Pollutant Loads
General Process Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities) Survey scientists and interested people Select top indicators for further study Identify monitoring data sources, etc. Survey scientists and interested people Select top indicators Prepare one-page sheets to amend report Adopt through committee
172 Individual Candidate Indicators 20 Respondents
Respondents 13 Scientists (USGS, FDEP, FWC, WMD, Co, Mote, etc) 4 Citizens (Engineer, WMD outreach, Coast Guard, etc) 1 Resource Manager (CHEC) 1 City Councilman (Punta Gorda) 6 Pretest
Top Contenders Timing of seasonal activities (migration, hatching, production) Loss of Conservation Acreage due to sea level rise Ecologic changes at the coastline Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of coastal strand Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of mangroves Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of mud flats/sand bars Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of salt marshes Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of seagrass Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of wetlands from retreating shorelines/conversion to open water Coastal erosion rates Drought intensity Flooding at coastlines Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation Relative sea-level rise Water temperature
15+3 Individual Candidate Indicators 7 (2 common) Respondents
Draft Climate Change Indicators Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation Sea-level rise Water temperature Phenology Coastal erosion rates (Habitat migration)
Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation Targets: Rolling 5-year average of 54 inches of rainfall per year (including the Bartow, Arcadia and Fort Myers stations). Annual number of events exceeding the 95 th percentile (0.42 inches) on a monthly and annual basis. Palmer Drought Index (PDI) >-2 and <2
1958 1997
Relative Sea Level Rise Targets: Limit relative sea-level rise to 1 inch per decade (plus or minus ½ inch).
Water Temperature Targets: Gaps for targets. Sources of data include : National Data Buoy Center Station VENF1 Venice sea temperatures between 53 and 91 o F. Volunteer data beginning 1998.
Time of day can give misleading results.
Phenology Citrus phenology longest period of record. Citrus flowers about a week after live oak. Regression analysis suggests that floral organ differentiation (requiring >650 accumulated hours below 19 o C) has shifted later by one day for every 3 years. Valiente, J. I., and L.G. Albrigo. 2002. Modeling flowering date of sweet orange trees in central Florida based on historical weather. Proc. Intl. Soc. Citriculture, pages 296-299.
Citrus Phenology-Lake Alfred 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Days from October 1 First Differentation
Bartow Temperatures 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 1897 1899 1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Avg of Min Temps Avg of Max Temps
Avg Min Temp Citrus POR 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average of Min Temps
Range Expansions? Longnose Killifish (Fundulus similis) Audubon Guide to Fishes 2002 Northern extent, Marco Island Found at Sanibel Causeway 2010 Florida White, male (Appias drusilla) Butterflies thru binocs, Glassberg et al 2000 Northern extent, Monroe County Found at Estero Bay 2010
Coastal Erosion Rates Targets: The average historical rate of erosion in west Florida is -0.8 ± 0.9 m/yr. Confounded by beach renourishment and other anthropogenic activities.
(Habitat Migration) Targets: Not selected through survey but salt marsh analysis may reveal useful indicator.
1953
2009
Landward Migration of seagrass in Charlotte Harbor East/West
Long Island Sound Initiating first survey to reduce number of indicators from ~32.
HABs DO Groundwater Salinity Pathogens/Human Pathogens/Shellfish Hydrogen Ions in sea TSS Invasive Species Benthic Index Phytoplankton Zooplankton Benthic Algae Lobster Crustaceans/Shell Shellfish (3 types) Finfish Marine Mammals/Turtles Tidal Flat Inundation/Diver y Salt Marsh Diversity Brackish/FW marsh sp shift Coastal Veg changes Cliff/Bluff Erosion Bird species declines Insect abundance Light/eelgrass SAV Species
Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Deputy Director: Liz Donley, esq. Communications Manager: Maran Hilgendorf Program Scientist: Judy Ott, MS 1926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL 33901-3414 239/338-2556, Toll free 866/835-5785 Fax 239/338-2560, chnep@swfrpc.org www.chnep.org