Do Mid-Cap Private Equity Funds Have an Advantage in Today s Markets? Richard Cashin, Managing Partner, One Equity Partners Ellis Jones, CEO, Wasserstein & Co. John Mapes, Managing Partner, Aurora Capital Group Ted Virtue, CEO, MidOcean Partners Moderator: Mischa Zabotin, Managing Director, Head of Financial Sponsors Group, Calyon Securities (USA) Inc. Monday, April 28, 2008 9:35 AM 10:50 AM
Do Mid-Cap Private Equity Funds Have an Advantage in Today s Markets? General Background Slides
Growing mid-cap private equity fund By number of deals 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Large-cap (>US$500M) Mid-cap (US$50-500M) Small-cap (<US$50M) Source: Portfolio Company Disbursements (VCD).
Growing mid-cap private equity fund By deal values US$ billions 7,000 6,000 5,000 19.6% of total 20.6% of total 23.3% of total 24.0% of total 4,000 3,000 25.7% of total 2,000 1,000 72.6% of total 79.1% of total 78.4% of total 75.7% of total 75.1% of total 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Large-cap (>US$500M) Mid-cap (US$50-500M) Small-cap (<US$50M) Source: Portfolio Company Disbursements (VCD).
Private equity: An alternative to classic private and public governance models Ownership structure Family-owned or privately held Private equity Publicly listed company Single owner or family group Private equity fund bundles equity from private investors to speak with one voice Many dispersed shareholders, both institutional and retail Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
Private equity: An alternative to classic private and public governance models Corporate governance Family-owned or privately held Private equity Publicly listed company Controlled and led by founder/owner. May have outside voice on board or management by invitation only Direct LBO representative on board with significant financial incentives for shareholder value Shareholders have weak financial incentives and usually weak voice in management Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
Private equity: An alternative to classic private and public governance models Capital structure Family-owned or privately held Debt tolerance depends on owner; usually low Private equity High debt-equity ratio Publicly listed company Low debt-equity ratio Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
Private equity: An alternative to classic private and public governance models Fundraising Family-owned or privately held Private equity Publicly listed company Fundraising through debt and bank loans Fundraising through private investors Fundraising through public debt and equity markets, bank loans Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
Direct and indirect effects on companies and financial markets Rise in company performance More activist governance Changing debt-equity Buyout market for spin-offs Key driver in M&A volume Takeover threat Public investments Direct Improvement of portfolio companies Indirect impact Pressure on corporate performance Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis. Create more liquid buyout market Impact on public capital markets
Announced U.S. share buybacks US$ billions 600 500 400 300 349 432 510 200 100 131 198 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis, October 2007.
Interest rates have fallen, boosting private equity returns Simplified example of LBO deal (US$ millions) Market capitalization Equity contribution 30% Debt share 70% EBIT (margin 12%) Debt service Net profit after tax (30% tax rate) LBO yield before fees LBO denotes leveraged buyout fund. Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis, October 2007. 6% 5.04 6.55 18.20% 120 36 84 14.4 9% 7.56 4.79 13.30%
Average private equity returns in the U.S. As of December 12, 2006 Hedge funds U.S. private equity Ten-year annualized returns 8.5 12.9 Five-year annualized returns 9.2 10.6 Real estate 14.5 23.2 US equities International equities International fixed income U.S. fixed income 8.6 8.3 4.7 6.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 15.7 Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis, October 2007.
Estimate of future AUM in LBO funds McKinsey Global Institute analysis Continued growth Base case Correction Funds raised in the U.S. grow by 14% per year Funds raised in Europe grow by 20% per year AUM in Asia and elsewhere grow by 20% Funds raised in the U.S. and in Europe remain at 2006 levels AUM in Asia and elsewhere grow by 10% Funds raised in the U.S. lose -15% per year Funds raised in Europe shrink by -15% per year AUM in Asia and elsewhere remain at 2006 levels AUM = assets under management. Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis, October 2007.
Global private assets reach US$1.4 trillion in 2012 in base case Continued growth Base case Correction US$ billions 1,141 1,375 1,557 1,722 1,959 914 48 128 237 370 523 658 1,429 709 864 992 1069 1027 889 771 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* = estimates Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis, October 2007.
U.S. LBOs by target industry US$ billions US$380.2 US$361.4 Financials Healthcare Energy and power Telecommunications US$65.8 US$120.0 Of which 34% were materials Of which 26% were retail Of which 32% were consumer Media and entertainment High technology Source: Thomson Financial. 2004 2005 2006 2007 Other
Non-U.S. LBOs by target industry US$ billions US$324.5 US$336.7 Energy and power Materials Consumer US$168.0 Industrials US$97.7 Of which 44% were media and entertainment Of which 50% were media and entertainment Of which 25% were real estate Telecommunications Retail Source: Thomson Financial. 2004 2005 2006 2007 Other
Do Mid-Cap Private Equity Funds Have an Advantage in Today s Markets? Mischa Zabotin s Slides
Private Equity Funds in the United States
$300 Commitments to U.S. private equity partnerships by sector US$ billions Mezzanine Venture capital Secondaries / other Buyouts / corporate finance 155.2 144.6 209.3 278.7 84.3 90.8 98.2 85.4 110.2 13.3 19.5 29.8 31.5 50.1 58.2 42.9 56.1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q07 1Q08 Does not include funds-of-funds. Source: Private Equity Analyst.
The ten largest funds in 2007 Sponsor Name of fund Amount raised in 2007 (US$M) Amount raised to date (US$M) Target (US$M) Blackstone Group Blackstone Capital Partners V 6,100 21,700 20,000 Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Capital Partners VI 20,000 20,000 19,000 Apax Partners Apax Europe VII 16,172 16,172 16,172 Apollo Management Apollo Investment Fund VII 6,400 6,400 15,800 Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Co. KKR 2006 Fund 2,430 18,500 15,500 Carlyle Group Carlyle Partners V 11,000 11,000 15,000 Warburg Pincus Warburg Pincus Private Equity X 9,000 9,000 15,000 Providence Equity Partners Providence Equity Partners VI 11,950 12,100 12,000 Blackstone Group Blackstone Real Estate Partners VI 11,000 11,000 10,200 Madison Dearborn Partners*** Madison Dearborn Partners VI 10,000 *** premarketing Source: Buyouts magazine, January 7, 2008.
Largest LBO acquisitions Announced between July 2006 and April 11, 2008 Date announced Date completed Target company Acquirer Deal value (US$M) Jun 30, 2007 Pending BCE Inc BCE Consortium 48,059 Feb 26, 2007 Oct 10, 2007 Energy Future Holdings Corp. TXU Acquisition Consortium 44,161 Nov 20, 2006 Feb 9, 2007 Equity Office Properties Trust Blackstone Real Estate Partners 37,837 Jul 24, 2006 Nov 17, 2006 HCA Inc. HCA Acquisition 31,771 Dec 19, 2006 Jan 28, 2008 Harrah's Entertainment Inc. Hamlet Holdings LLC 27,188 Nov 16, 2006 Pending Clear Channel Communications Inc Clear Channel Acquisition Corp. 26,999 Apr 2, 2007 Sep 24, 2007 First Data Corp. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Corp. (KKR) 26,964 May 20, 2007 Nov 16, 2007 Alltel Corporation Inc. Alltel Acquisition Corp. 26,862 Jul 3, 2007 Oct 24, 2007 Hilton Hotels Corp. Blackstone Group Holdings LLC 25,081 Apr 16, 2007 Pending SLM Corporation SLM Acquisition Corp. 24,662 May 2, 2007 Pending Cablevision Systems Corp. Charles Dolan family 22,465 Aug 28, 2006 May 30, 2007 Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) Kinder Morgan (management group) 22,386 May 29, 2007 Oct 5, 2007 Archstone-Smith Trust Archstone-Smith Acquisition Corp. 19,820 Sep 15, 2006 Dec 1, 2006 Freescale Semiconductor Inc. Freescale Acquisition Corp. 16,285 Jun 19, 2007 Feb 4, 2008 Intelsat Holdings Ltd. BC Partners Ltd. 15,823 Dec 18, 2006 Jul 12, 2007 Biomet Inc. LVB Acquisition LLC 11,342 Source: Merger Market.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Percentage of global M&A attributed to buyouts 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3% Source: Thomson Financial. 2006 1Q07 20% 2Q07 26% 3Q07 40% 4Q07 13% 1Q08 9% 11%
Buyout Financing
Average purchase price / non-adjusted EBITDA multiples EBITDA multiples 10x Fees/expense 9x 8x Purchase price 0.3 0.3 8.1 8.0 0.3 9.3 0.3 8.8 7x 6x 0.3 6.8 0.3 6.4 0.2 5.8 0.2 6.4 0.4 6.7 0.3 7 5x 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08 Source: Standard & Poor s LBO 1Q08.
Average debt multiples of LBO loans Debt/multiple 6x 5x 4x 3x 5.7 5.4 4.8 4.7 Large corporate LBO loans Middle market LBO loans 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.8 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.7 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.5 2x 1x 0x 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08 Source: Standard & Poor s LCD Quarterly 2008Q1.
U.S. leveraged pricing Basis points 600 BB B 500 400 300 200 100 0 1Q-98 1Q-00 1Q-02 1Q-04 1Q-06 1Q-08 Source: Standard & Poor s LCD Quarterly, 2008Q1.