Mobility-as-a-Service and its effect on Toll Facilities Sooner or Later? By Rick Gobeille Senior Principal, Stantec Haley Collins Transportation Planner, Stantec
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
Toll Facility Forecasting Toll Facility Characteristics Existing Facility Forecast Horizon 5 to 10 years Typically A Lot of Performance History Nearby Area Well Developed and Understood Green Field Project Forecast Horizon 30 to 40 years Typically Very Little Performance History Nearby Area Usually Not Well Developed and Not Well Understood
Toll Facility Forecasting Toll Facility Modeling Techniques Existing Facility Often Use Trend-Line Static Models Small Range on Socio-Economic Variables Higher Confidence of Forecasts Green Field Project Often Use Sophisticated 4-Step Travel Models Wide Range on Socio-Economic Variables Lower Confidence of Forecasts, Particularly in Later Years
Toll Facility Forecasting MaaS and Toll Facility Modeling Techniques MaaS Introduces Some Level of Uncertainty to All Forecasts Will it Increase or Decrease Travel? Will it Change People s Value of Time? Will it Happen Sooner or Later?
Toll Facility Forecasting MaaS and Toll Facility Modeling Techniques
CALIBRATION LATER
CALIBRATION SOONER CALIBRATION SOONER
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
Google Glass Example Technology Innovation in Technology For All Market Consumer, Worldwide Publicity Investment $ Billions Forecasted Sales (2014) 21.1 Million Sold in 2018
Google Glass Example Public Acceptance Product Removed January 2015 Technology New, Different Technological Uses Assisted and Augmented Reality Market Targeted Commercial (Not Widespread Consumer)
GOOGLE GLASSES LATER (and different)
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
Seat Belt Usage 1885 19501954 1958196819842000 Patented Nash Required firstsaab Seat in First introduces belt 90% law required Adoption requiring Rate option seat racing belts on cars as cars passengers standard in all cars on wear one seat Model belt
SEAT BELT USAGE LATER
Vehicle Fleet How Long For 50% Fleet Turnover? YEAR AVERAGE VEHICLE AGE (years) VEHICLES AGED 10+ YEARS YEARS TO 50% FLEET TURNOVER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1977 6.6 17% 4-5 1995 8.3 34% 7-8 2017 10.3 48% 9-10
VEHICLE FLEET TURNOVER LATER
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
Older Cities Developed Infrastructure (New York City) 1800 1830 1880 1900 1904 1950 1960 1970 Present Horse-car Cross Bronx Brooklyn-Queens Side Streetcars Elevated Lines SubwayWest Dense, urban, Trolley Lines Expresswaymulti-modal Expressway Elevated Highway
DEVELOPED INFRASTRUCTURE - LATER
Middle Aged Cities Newish Infrastructure (Dallas) 1870 1980 1996 1960 1800 1900 1920 Present Horse Sprawling, suburban, Area Rapid Roadway network Horse US Dallas 75 DART Rail and Buggyto auto dependent Transit (DART) approved accommodate the vehicle and Buggy
NEWISH INFRASTRUCTURE SOONER/LATER
New Cities Brand New Infrastructure (Toronto/Sidewalk Labs)???? Source: Sidewalk Toronto, Rountable 3 Image Gallery????
BRAND NEW INFRASTRUCTURE SOONER
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
Technological Adoption Smartphones Technology Innovation in Technology For All Market Consumer, Worldwide Publicity Investment $ Billions Forecasted Sales (2014) 21.1 Million Sold in 2018
Technological Adoption E-ZPass Year Tappan Zee Bridge Transaction(billions) Transponders(millions) Registered Vehicles 2006 72.8% 2.2 16.0 18% 2011 78.2% 2.4 22.5 25% 2016 80.9% 3.0 32.8 35%
Technological Adoption Travel Frequency Frequent Customers Matter Presented many times on this at IBTTA A high percentage of transactions are made by a small percentage of users. True for many things. E-ZPass Usage Health Clubs Memberships Cell Phones
TECHNOLOGICAL ADOPTION SOONER
Outline of Presentation Toll Facility Forecasting Google Glass Example When Will Core Technology Be Available? When Will A Geographic Location Be Ready? When Will The Technology Adoption Happen? Conclusion
When Will I Begin Including MaaS in My Forecasts It Depends Many Factors to Consider Sooner Greenfield Projects in Developing Areas Long Term Forecasts Later Legacy Facilities in Developed Areas Short Term Forecasts What Might the Impact Be Personally Leaning Towards More Trips
THANK YOU