Print Market Overview: Employment Markets Technology Prepared by Nick Waite, Head of Market Research, Smithers Pira
Agenda Introduction Smithers Pira print research EU commercial printing industry Printer demographics (employment, companies) Impact of automation EU print market trends Market overview Print product/process trends Consumables & equipment Digital printing developments Outlook
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EU28 commercial printing industry employment and enterprises, 2008-2014 1.000.000 Number of enterprises 800.000 798.010 726.334 724.360 696.311 Number of employees 653.004 627.485 620.842 600.000 400.000 200.000 130.134 124.177 122.950 119.589 116.976 117.709 114.637 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Eurostat/Smithers Pira estimates
Employment levels hit by combination of declining demand and rising automation Declining print demand since 2007/8 leading to business failures and redundancies Increasing automation leading to greater efficiencies throughout the print business, including in both administration and print production. Key areas include online printing portals (e.g. VistaPrint), photobook manufacturing, self-publishing and also standard jobbing print items Companies increasingly adopting workflow systems that gang jobs together, often employing one makeready for multiple jobs. Prepress becoming largely automated, with plates automatically generated by workflow system. A variety of jobs can be bundled on a single plate possibly 6 business card jobs or even 150 Print production process also becoming increasingly automated, with equipment taking instruction from admin side, normally enabled through JDF (job description format) from original order. Changeovers on modern sheetfed presses now taking less than 10 minutes for whole makeready, with minimal manual intervention required
SaxoPrint German sheetfed printer with a presence across Europe part of growing German trend of adopting web-to-print techniques, using large format sheetfed litho to print standard products, and ganging jobs together to share the cost (and time) of make-readies across several jobs. Standard paper stocks and process colour printing make sheetfed competitive Product lines encompass advertising print, packaging, commercial print and publication print (e.g. magazines) SaxoPrint business model based on providing high quality, fast turnaround and environmentally friendly production; has expanded over the years to become very cost efficient though economies of scale Recent Speedmaster XL acquisitions from Heidelberg providing efficiency at short runs
Some signs of stabilization in commercial printing industry output after protracted period of decline, but revenues down again in 2014 according to Eurostat data EU27 commercial printing output, 2008: 61.3 billion Sharp downturn in output in 2009 (down 12%) followed by more stable conditions in 2010/11/12 Annual declines of 2.2% per annum, 2009-2014 Overall decline of more than 5% in revenues in 2014 despite some more positive indicators elsewhere
EU27 commercial printing industry output, 2008-2014 ( million) 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 61.265 53.705 52.415 53.108 53.564 50.614 47.984 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Eurostat
Other data points to stronger performance, with decline 1.0-1.5% in P&W paper demand in 2014 EU28 printing & writing paper consumption by type, 2007-14 000 tonnes Eurostat data CEPI 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 CAGR 07/14 % C, 13-14 % C, 13-14 Newsprint 11,098 9,186 8,999 7,987 7,802-6.8-2.3-2.7 Uncoated woodfree 11,259 9,654 8,861 7,958 8,160-6.2 2.5 1.0 Uncoated mechanical 5,503 4,965 5,179 5,070 4,693-3.1-7.4-4.1 Coated woodfree 5,377 4,257 4,899 4,638 4,449-3.7-4.1-1.5 Coated mechanical 9,082 6,246 6,633 6,000 6,205-7.3 3.4-0.5 Total 42,319 34,307 34,571 31,652 31,310-5.8-1.1-1.4 Source: Eurostat/CEPI
Printing ink demand down just 0.5% in 2014 EU28 printing inks demand, 2007-14 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 Black printing inks Other printing inks 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 000 tonnes 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 CAGR 07/14 % C, 13-14 Black printing inks 214 176 167 161 157-4.3-2.5 Other printing inks 1,039 886 834 809 809-3.5 0.0 Total 1,253 1,062 1,001 970 966-3.6-0.5 Source: Eurostat
Smithers Pira view Currently finalising global figures for 2014 Preliminary view European printing & packaging output down 0.3% to 165 billion Packaging & labels up 2.0% to 76 billion Graphic print down 2.3% to 89 billion Trends in EU28 similar to Europe as a whole no growth in Russian printing revenues in 2014
Trends in European Printing & Printed Packaging Output, 2009-2019f ( bn, constant 2013 prices & exchange rates) 120,0 100,0 Graphic print Printed packaging 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 Note: constant price values show market data at 2013 prices, removing impact of inflation and exchange rate fluctuations from one year to the next 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Smithers Pira
billion European Printing & Printed Packaging Output, 2009-2019f 175,0 170,0 billion, current prices & exchange rates billion, constant (2013) prices & exchange rates 165,0 160,0 155,0 150,0 145,0 140,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Smithers Pira
European Printing & Printed Packaging Output by Print Product, 2013-2019f ( million, current prices & exchange rates) 2013 2014 % change, 2013-14 2019f CAGR (%), 2014-19 Books 6.77 6.43-5.0 5.25-4.0 Magazines 11.09 10.90-1.7 10.04-1.6 Newspapers 5.77 5.42-6.1 4.20-5.0 Advertising 24.65 24.35-1.2 23.90-0.4 Catalogues 5.21 5.00-4.1 4.16-3.6 Directories 3.18 3.02-5.0 2.36-4.8 Security 1.39 1.39-0.1 1.38-0.1 Transactional 3.20 3.28 2.6 4.12 4.7 Other commercial 29.66 29.08-2.0 28.38-0.5 Packaging 67.60 68.90 1.9 78.91 2.7 Labels 6.72 6.92 3.1 8.26 3.6 Total 165.24 164.69-0.3 170.96 0.8 Source: Smithers Pira
Newspapers European newspaper advertising expenditure, 2009-2013 ( billion) European mkt, 2014: 5.42bn 25 20 20,43 21,37 19,98 19,64 17,36 15-6.1%, 2014p 10-5.0% p.a., 2019f Source: Smithers Pira 5 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: WAN/IFRA
Magazines European magazine advertising expenditure, 2007-2014 ( billion) European mkt, 2014: 10.9bn 100 95 90 94,60 88,30 92,46 91,26 97,24 93,40 95,71-1.7%, 2014p 85 80 82,12 75-1.6% p.a., 2019f 70 Source: Smithers Pira Source: World Magazine Trends
Books EU 27 book printing revenues by type, 2008-2014 ( million) European mkt, 2014: 6.43bn -5.0%, 2014p -4.0% p.a., 2019f 2008 2014 % change, 2008-14 Books, total 6,561 5,292-19.3 Books, brochures, pamphlets (excl. single sheets) 5,607 5,204-7.2 Children's picture, etc. books 301 54-82.0 Dictionaries & encyclopaedias 537 22-96.0 Map books, etc. 117 12-89.9 Source: Smithers Pira Source: Eurostat
% share by volume (tonnage) Non-EU and Chinese share of EU book imports, 2002-Q1 2015 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Non-EU, overall China 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1, 2015 Source: Eurostat/UN
Catalogues EU 27 catalogue printing revenues by type, 2008-2014 ( million) European mkt, 2014: 4.99bn -4.1%, 2014p 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 4.618 4.177 3.945 4.010 4.052 4.290 3.561-3.6% p.a., 2019f 1.000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Smithers Pira Source: Eurostat
Advertising European printed advertising output by type, 2014 (% share by value) European mkt, 2014: 24.3bn -1.2%, 2014p Indoor PoS/signage 24% Outdoor PoS/signage 13% Direct mail 18% Brochures, pamphlets, other promotional 38% -0.4% p.a., 2019f Inserts 7% Source: Smithers Pira Source: Smithers Pira
Other commercial print Other European commercial printing output by type, 2014 (% share by value) European mkt, 2014: 36.8bn Others 39% Photobooks 4% Directories 8% Info print 17% -1.8%, 2014p -0.3% p.a., 2019f Cheques <1% Security 4% Transactional 9% Newsletters <1% Manuals <1% Fin/legal 6% Business forms 3% Business ID 8% Coupons, etc. 2% Source: Smithers Pira Source: Smithers Pira
Packaging & labels European mkt, 2014: 75.8bn +2.0%, 2014p European package & label printing revenues by type, 2009-2014 ( million) 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2009 2014 +2.8% p.a., 2019f Source: Smithers Pira Source: Smithers Pira
European Printing & Printed Packaging Output by Process, 2012-2019f ( million, constant 2013 prices & exchange rates) 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2013 2014 2019 Source: Smithers Pira
European Printing Inks Consumption by Type, 2014 (% share by volume) Total printing inks & colourants consumption: one million tonnes Letterpress Screen 1% 2% Toner 5% Inkjet 2% Sheetfed 12% Flexo 25% Coldset 19% Gravure 22% Heatset 12% Source: Smithers Pira
EU28 printing equipment sales by type, 2008-2014 (sold production, million) 2008 2009 2011 2013 2014 CAGR 08/14 %C, 13-14 Reel fed offset 2,008 1,106 523 521 364-24.8-30.0 Other offset 2,515 1,157 1,800 1,291 1,500-8.3 16.2 Flexographic 443 365 548 535 610 5.5 14.0 Reel fed letterpress 127 99 82 88 78-7.8-11.4 Gravure 171 40* 138 161 165-0.6 2.7 Other commercial printing equ t. 1,010 864 1,590 1,711 1,641 8.4-4.1 Postpress equipment for books 717 419 416 363 355-11.1-2.4 Press equipment 178 114 166 180 187 0.8 3.7 Total 7,169 4,164 5,262 4,850 4,901-6.1 1.0 Note: *estimate, probably too low Source: Eurostat
European Sales of Printing Equipment by Type, 2014 (% share by value) Total sales of new printing equipment: 5.32 billion Electro-photography 11% Inkjet 14% Sheetfed 29% Postpress 7% Prepress 8% Flexo 13% Gravure 6% Heatset 4% Coldset 3% Screen 2% Source: Smithers Pira
Digital printing Digital printing equipment sales forecast to grow by 5% per annum in current terms over the next five years, from 1.47bn in 2014 to 1.91bn by 2019. Inkjet sales to reach 1.12bn Digital share of printing output to rise from 14% in value terms to 20% between 2014 and 2019. Volume share to remain below 4% Focus will remain on short and short-medium run length areas like signage, but also print-on-demand. Strong growth in digital across commercial printing areas, labels and books. Packaging will emerge as a key target area for development Inkjet to take share from electrophotography in mono book printing; growth in electrophotography here likely to be more value-driven
Océ VarioPrint i300 Series inkjet Printer Previously codenamed Niagara, the VarioPrint i300 is the first high-speed colour B3 sheetfed inkjet production print system, representing a new category of press Features patented ink, print head and paper handling technology enabling it to print on a wide range of media, including uncoated, coated and inkjet treated paper Incorporates ColorStream 3000 inkjet technology mono cut sheet VarioPrint 6000 series paper handling system, and PRISMA control platform Aimed to take share from cut sheet digital presses as users develop new commercial print applications with the press, as well as from high speed inkjet lines
New high-speed production printer from Ricoh Designed for high-quality printing on standard substrates, enabled by a priming station that allows standard offset papers to be printed, and an inkjet coating capability that provides protection and enhancement to the print VC60000 uses a new high viscosity, high pigment loading, water-based ink system, drying rapidly at the surface of a primed paper leading to very smooth results. Ricoh Pro VC60000
HP High-speed Inkjet Corrugated Packaging New 2.8m wide T1110 corrugated machine developed in conjunction with KBA, with a speed of 183m per minute, equating to over 30,000 square metres per hour the most productive of any digital printing device
LANDA S10 Nanographic Printing Press Deliveries of first, highly-anticipated Landa line set for next year B1 format press targeted principally at cartons and general commercial printing jobs Claimed to have lowest consumable cost of any digital printing machine against sheetfed litho, it should be competitive up to 5-7,000 x B1 prints or around 30,000 boxes
Thank you for your attention! Nick Waite Head of Market Research Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU Phone: +44 1372 802115 Email: nwaite@smithers.com www.smitherspira.com