Online Game Market: Table of Contents
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1 DFC Intelligence DFC Intelligence Phone Carmel Mountain Rd Fax Suite C San Diego, CA Online Game Market: Table of Contents June 2006
2 Table of Contents Table of Contents I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...13 A. OVERVIEW...13 B. MAJOR TRENDS Online Console Games MMOG Dominant Online Game Form Online Games in Asia Casual Gaming Market Bundling is Key Impact of Broadband Changing Distribution Channels Possibilty of Move Away from Flat Rate Pricing Online Games as an Extension of Retail Games...29 C. CHALLENGES TO ONLINE GAMING INDUSTRY Technology Impediments Game Design Paradigms Consumer Awareness Uncertainty in Profitable Business Model Level of Online Hardware Penetration Reaction from Traditional Retail Channel...38 II. STATE OF ONLINE GAMES...39 III. A. OVERVIEW...39 B. HISTORY OF ONLINE GAMES History The Market Niches Today...58 ONLINE GAME FORECASTS...62 A. BROADBAND FORECASTS Broadband Households by Country Broadband Households by Region B. VIDEO GAME CONSOLE HARDWARE FORECASTS...78 C. FORECAST FOR ONLINE GAMER POPULATION North America Online Gamer Forecasts Europe Online Gamer Forecasts Asia Online Gamer Forecasts Worldwide Online Gamer Forecasts D. FORECASTS FOR ONLINE GAME REVENUE BY PLATFORM AND REGION North American Revenue by Platform Europe Revenue by Platform Japan Revenue by Platform Asia Revenue by Platform Worldwide Revenue by Platform
3 IV. E. FORECASTS FOR ONLINE GAME REVENUE BY TYPE Overview Online Game Subscription Revenue Online Game Advertising Revenue Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue Total Online Game Revenue by Type F. FORECASTS FOR ONLINE GAME REVENUE BY GENRE North American Revenue by Genre Europe Revenue by Genre Japan Revenue by Genre Asia Revenue by Genre Worldwide Revenue by Genre KEY PLAYERS IN THE ONLINE GAME VALUE CHAIN A. OVERVIEW B. FLAT RATE PRICING: STILL ALL-YOU-CAN-EAT BUT NOT ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL C. VALUE CHAIN Service Providers/ISPs/Telecom/Cable Operators Content Providers Platform/Hardware Providers Online Game Providers/Aggregators Others D. SALES CHANNELS AND ONLINE DISTRIBUTION Overview Online Distribution and Shareware (ESD) Games On Demand Electronic Distribution at Retail V. ONLINE GAMING BUSINESS MODELS A. OVERVIEW Bundling is Key What models seem suitable to what types of content B. TRADITIONAL RETAIL SALES Using peer-to-peer and aggregator services Publishers setting up proprietary services C. ADVERTISING Overview Advantages of Online Advertising What Will Allow Online Advertising to Grow Problems with Online Advertising Measurements Types of Online Advertising Consolidation Advertising in Online Games: The Reality D. FLAT-FEE SUBSCRIPTIONS Basic Monthly Subscription Tiered Subscriptions Buy at Retail/Monthly Flat-Fee Subscription Model E. MINI-TRANSACTIONS/VIRTUAL PROPERTY/PAY-PER-PLAY/PAY-PER-COMPONENT Minitransactions/Micropayments Digital Collectibles/Magic: The Gathering
4 VI. 3. Virtual Property/There Inc/Second Life Digital Collectibles Market Players F. SKILL-BASED GAMING/GAMES FOR MONEY/COMPETITIVE GAMING G. EMERGING BUSINESS MODELS H. KOREA: PIONEERING NEW BUSINESS MODELS TECHNOLOGY AND OPERATING CONSIDERATIONS A. OPERATING COSTS The cost of doing business Casual Games and Retail Hybrids Costs for Massively Multiplayer/Persistent World Games B. TECHNOLOGY CONSIDERATIONS Bandwidth: Broadband vs. Narrowband Latency Distribution Technology VII. CONSOLE ONLINE GAMES A. OVERVIEW B. CONSOLE ONLINE GAME HISTORY AND FORECASTS History Console Gamers Forecasts Console Game Revenue Forecasts Video Game Hardware Forecasts Sega Dreamcast/Sega.net/SNAP C. CONSOLE GAME SYSTEMS: A DETAILED LOOK The 128-Bit Systems: A Detailed Look New Console Systems: A Detailed Look D. MOBILE AND PORTABLE GAMING Sony PSP Nintendo DS VIII. ONLINE GAME GENRES A. OVERVIEW B. THE TRADITIONAL VIDEO GAME AND COMPUTER GAME GENRES C. THREE BROAD CATEGORIES OF ONLINE GAMES Casual Games Retail Hybrids Massively Multiplayer/Persistent Worlds (MMOGs) Game Types Define Consumer Type D. ONLINE GAME GENRES: FROM MASS-MARKET TO HARD-CORE Casual Games Children s Entertainment Sports/Fighting/Racing First-Person Shooters/Action Strategy/Simulation Games MMOGs E. INDIVIDUAL MMOGS: A DETAILED LOOK The Start of Today s MMOG Market: Ultima Online and EverQuest F. THE ONLINE GAME PARADIGM G. CHAT AND COMMUNITY
5 IX. ONLINE GAME CONSUMER A. OVERVIEW B. CONSUMER PROFILES The Big Picture: Hard-Core vs. Mass-Market Number of Online Gamers Types of Online Gamers X. COMPANY PROFILES A. 4 KIDS B. ARKADIUM C. BIG FISH GAMES D. BLIZZARD/BATTLE.NET E. CCP GAMES F. CODEMASTERS G. DISNEY INTERNET GROUP H. ELECTRONIC ARTS/EA.COM/AMERICA ONLINE/POGO I. THE FLIPSIDE NETWORK/UPROAR J. FUNCOM K. GAME TRUST L. JAGEX M. KING.COM N. LIBERTY MEDIA: FUN TECHNOLOGIES/SKILLJAM O. LINDEN LAB P. MICROSOFT CASUAL GAMES/ZONE.COM Q. MYTHIC ENTERTAINMENT R. NCSOFT S. NEOPETS/MTV NETWORKS T. NEWS CORP: IGN ENTERTAINMENT/GAMESPY, INTERMIX GAMES U. PLAYFIRST V. POPCAP GAMES W. REAL NETWORKS/REALARCADE X. REFLEXIVE ENTERTAINMENT Y. SHOCKWAVE/GAMEBLAST/ATOM ENTERTAINMENT Z. SKYWORKS TECHNOLOGIES AA. SONY ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT BB. SQUARE ENIX CC. SULAKE DD. THREE RINGS DESIGN EE. TURBINE FF. WEBZEN GG. WILDTANGENT HH. XFIRE II. YAHOO!
6 Index of Tables Table 1 The Benefits of Online Games...45 Table 2 The Largest Online-Only Game Companies...48 Table 3 Peak Concurrent Online Game Usage for Casual Game Sites...60 Table 4 Top Worldwide MMOGs: June Table 5 Peak Concurrent Online Game Usage for Match-Making Game Sites...61 Table 6 Top Games on Xfire IM Service...61 Table 7 Broadband Households by Country Table 8 Broadband Household Penetration by Country Table 9 North America Broadband Households: Table 10 Europe Broadband Households: Table 11 Asia Online Households: Table 12 Total Worldwide Broadband Households: Table 13 Online Household Key Comparisons: 2005 and Table 14 Worldwide Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales: Table 15 North America Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales: Table 16 Europe Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales: Table 17 Japan Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales: Table 18 Rest Of World Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales: Table 19 Worldwide Active Installed Base of 128-Bit Game Systems Table 20 Worldwide Active Installed Base of New Game Systems Table 21 N. America PC Online Gamers: Table 22 N. America Console Online Gamers: Table 23 Total N. America Online Gamers: Table 24 Total Europe PC Online Gamers: Table 25 Total Europe Console Online Gamers: Table 26 Total Europe Online Gamers: Table 27 Total Asia PC Online Gamers: Table 28 Total Asia Console Online Gamers: Table 29 Total Asia Online Gamers: Table 30 Total Worldwide PC Online Gamers: Table 31 Total Worldwide Console Online Gamers: Table 32 Total Worldwide Online Gamers: Table 33 Worldwide Online Gamers by Region: Table 34 North America PC Online Game Revenue: Table 35 North America Console Online Game Revenue: Table 36 North America Total Online Game Revenue by Platform: Table 37 Europe PC Online Game Revenue: Table 38 Europe Console Online Game Revenue: Table 39 Europe Total Online Game Revenue by Platform: Table 40 Japan PC Online Game Revenue: Table 41 Japan Console Online Game Revenue: Table 42 Japan Total Online Game Revenue by Platform: Table 43 Asia PC Online Game Revenue: Table 44 Asia Console Online Game Revenue: Table 45 Asia Total Online Game Revenue by Platform: Table 46 Worldwide PC Online Game Revenue: Table 47 Worldwide Console Online Game Revenue:
7 Table 48 Worldwide Total Online Game Revenue by Platform: Table 49 Worldwide Total Online Game Revenue: Table 50 North America Online Game Subscription Revenue: Table 51 North America Online Game Subscription Revenue by Platform: Table 52 Europe Online Game Subscription Revenue: Table 53 Europe Online Game Subscription Revenue by Platform: Table 54 Japan Online Game Subscription Revenue: Table 55 Japan Online Game Subscription Revenue by Platform: Table 56 Asia Online Game Subscription Revenue: Table 57 Asia Online Game Subscription Revenue by Platform: Table 58 Worldwide Online Game Subscription Revenue: Table 59 Worldwide Online Game Subscription Revenue by Platform: Table 60 Worldwide Online Game Subscription Revenue by Region: Table 61 North America Online Game Advertising Revenue: Table 62 North America Online Game Advertising Revenue by Platform: Table 63 Europe Online Game Advertising Revenue: Table 64 Europe Online Game Advertising Revenue by Platform: Table 65 Japan Online Game Advertising Revenue: Table 66 Japan Online Game Advertising Revenue by Platform: Table 67 Asia Online Game Advertising Revenue: Table 68 Asia Online Game Advertising Revenue by Platform: Table 69 Worldwide Online Game Advertising Revenue: Table 70 Worldwide Online Game Advertising Revenue by Platform: Table 71 Worldwide Online Game Advertising Revenue by Region: Table 72 North America Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue: Table 73 North America Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue by Platform: Table 74 Europe Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue: Table 75 Europe Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue by Platform: Table 76 Japan Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue: Table 77 Japan Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue by Platform: Table 78 Asia Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue: Table 79 Asia Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue by Platform: Table 80 Worldwide Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue: Table 81 Worldwide Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue by Platform: Table 82 Worldwide Online Game Digital Distribution Revenue by Region: Table 83 North America Online Game Revenue by Type: Table 84 North America Online Game Revenue by User Type: Table 85 Europe Online Game Revenue by Type: Table 86 Europe Online Game Revenue by User Type: Table 87 Japan Online Game Revenue by Type: Table 88 Japan Online Game Revenue by User Type: Table 89 Asia Online Game Revenue by Type: Table 90 Asia Online Game Revenue by User Type: Table 91 Worldwide Online Game Revenue by Type: Table 92 Worldwide Online Game Revenue by User Type: Table 93 North America PC Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 94 North America Console Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 95 North America Total Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 96 Europe PC Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 97 Europe Console Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 98 Europe Total Online Game Revenue by Genre:
8 Table 99 Japan PC Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 100 Japan Console Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 101 Japan Total Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 102 Asia PC Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 103 Asia Console Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 104 Asia Total Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 105 Worldwide PC Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 106 Worldwide Console Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 107 Worldwide Total Online Game Revenue by Genre: Table 108 Types of Consumer Internet Connections Table 109 Market Value of Leading Service Providers Table s High Profile Internet Acquisitions Table 111 Leading Interactive Entertainment Publishers by Revenue Table 112 Different Types of Online Game Aggregators Table 113 Development and Distribution of Various Media Table 114 RealNetworks Annual Game Revenue Table 115 Real Networks Quarterly Game Revenue Table 116 Digital Distribution Solutions Providers Table 117 Infinium Labs Phantom Gaming Service Basic Revenue Model Table Year MMOG Subscriber Model Table Year MMOG Revenue Model Table 120 Total 10-Year MMOG Revenue Table 121 World of Warcraft Subscriber Growth Table 122 Product/Service vs. Revenue Model Table 123 U.S. Marketing Services Spending: Table 124 Magazine Advertising Revenue Table 125 Game Magazine 2005 Advertising Revenue Table 126 Game Magazine 2004 Advertising Revenue Table 127 Online Advertising Revenue: Table 128 Share of Ad Impressions by Content Category: Table 129 Share of Ad Impressions by Content Category: Table 130 Share of Rich Media Ad Impressions: Table 131 European Online Advertising Markets Table 132 Online Advertising: U.K., Germany, France Table 133 Yahoo and Google Annual Net Revenue Per Unique/Active User Table 134 CPM of Various Media Table 135 Advertising/Usage Share of Various Media Table 136 Internet Advertising Revenue by Pricing Model Table 137 Online Advertising Formats: Table 138 Rich Media Ad Impressions Table 139 Revenue of Leading Online Advertising Sites: Table 140 Worldwide Online Game Advertising Revenue by Region: Table 141 IGN Advertising Revenue: Table 142 IGN Entertainment Income Table 143 Examples of Online Game Subscription Services Table 144 Basic Monthly Subscription Prices for Media and News Online Services Table 145 Case s Ladder Tiered Subscription Options Table 146 North America, Europe, Japan Top MMOG Games Subscribers and Revenue: Table 147 North America, Europe, Japan Top MMOG Games Subscribers and Revenue: Table 148 MMOG Annual Subscription and Revenue Forecast: North America, Europe and Japan
9 Table 149 Table 20 MMOG Annual Subscription and Revenue Forecast: Asia Pacific Table 150 Golf: An Example of Multi-Tiered Consumer Spending Table 151 Table 133 Pay-Per-Play Asian MMOG Business Model Table 152 Minitransaction Options: Habbo Hotel Payment Methods Table 153 Skilled Gaming Business Model Table 154 Major Portals and Their Skill Gaming Partners Table 155 South Korea Online Gamer Forecasts: Table 156 Hypothetical Support Staff to Maintain a Medium-Size MMOG Table 157 Gross Profit for Subscription Online-Only Game: Moderate Support Costs Table 158 Gross Profit for Subscription Online-Only Game: Low Support Costs Table 159 Major AT&T Network Operations and Hosting Customers Table 160 MMOG Middleware Companies Table 161 Wireless Networking Standards Table 162 Adoption Time for New Consumer Technologies Table 163 Broadband Households by Country: Table 164 Total Worldwide Broadband Households by Region: Table 165 Total Worldwide Online Gamers: Table 166 Total Worldwide Console Online Gamers by Type: Table 167 North America Console Online Gamers by Type: Table 168 Total Europe Console Online Gamers by Type: Table 169 Total Asia Console Online Gamers by Type: Table 170 Total Worldwide Console Online Gamers by Region: Table 171 Total Worldwide Console Online Game Revenue by Region: Table 172 Total Worldwide Console Online Game Revenue by Type: Table 173 Worldwide Video Game Console Hardware Unit Sales: Table 174 Worldwide Active Installed Base of 128-Bit Game Systems Table 175 Worldwide Active Installed Base of New Game Systems Table 176 Xbox Live Most Played Games October Table 177 Xbox Live Top Games Globally: 11/ / Table 178 PlayStation 2 Online Usage Statistics: Table 179 Microsoft Heritage Behind Xbox Live Table 180 Top Xbox 360 Live Titles Table 181 Top Xbox 360 Live Arcade Titles Table 182 U.S. Best Selling Titles of the 128-Bit Era Table 183 Top U.S. Game Titles of 32/64-Bit Era Table 184 Worldwide Casual Online Game Revenue: Table 185 Worldwide Childrens Online Game Revenue: Table 186 Ranking of Children s Entertainment Sites Table 187 Worldwide Sports/Fighting/Racing Online Game Revenue: Table 188 Worldwide First-Person Shooter/Action Online Game Revenue: Table 189 Worldwide Strategy/Simulation Online Game Revenue: Table 190 Worldwide MMOG Online Game Revenue: Table 191 Individual MMOG Subscriber Base and Costs Table 192 Ultima Online Releases: Table 193 EverQuest Releases: Table 194 Anarchy Online Releases: Table 195 Dark Age of Camelot Releases: Table 196 Eve Online Releases: Table 197 EverQuest 2 Releases: Table 198 World of Warcraft Subscription Growth Table 199 World of Warcraft International Release Schedule
10 Table 200 Top Instant Messenger Clients Table 201 Interactive Entertainment: Key Consumer Penetration Statistics Table 202 Male and Female Users for Leading Online Game Sites Table 203 MSN Games at the Zone.com Demographics: Table 204 MSN Games at the Zone.com Demographics: Table 205 Pogo and Club Pogo Demographics: Table 206 EA.com Demographics: Table 207 Gametrust Demographics Table 208 Total Worldwide PC Online Gamers by Type: Table 209 Total Worldwide Console Online Gamers by Type: Table 210 Appeal of Game Genres to Different Consumer Types Table 211 World of Warcraft Subscriber Growth Table 212 World of Warcraft International Release Schedule Table 213 EA.com Revenue and Income: Table 214 Ultima Online Revenue: Table 215 EA.com Revenue Sources: Table 216 Electronic Arts Online Revenue Sources: Table 217 EA.com Costs and Expenses: Table 218 Uproar Financial Info: Table 219 Uproar.com Costs and Expenses Table 220 Funcom Revenue and Earnings Table 221 Fun Technologies Revenue and Earnings Table 222 NCsoft Revenue and Expenses: Table 223 NCsoft Revenue Breakdown by Source: Table 224 NCsoft Revenue Breakdown by Country Table 225 Lineage Usage Statistics by Country: Table 226 Lineage Korea Pricing Model Table 227 Lineage Overseas Pricing Model Table 228 Lineage II Usage Statistics by Country: Table 229 City of Heroes Usage Statistics: Table 230 IGN Entertainment Revenue: Table 231 IGN Entertainment Earnings: Table 232 RealNetworks Revenue and Income: Table 233 RealNetworks Service Revenue by Category: Table 234 Square Enix Online Game Revenue and Income: Table 235 Square Enix Online Game Revenue and Income: Table 236 Square Enix Nine Month Online Game Revenue and Income Table 237 Square Enix Nine Month Online Game Revenue and Income Table 238 Sulake Revenue: Table 239 Webzen Revenue and Income: Table 240 Webzen Source of Revenue: Table 241 Webzen Revenue by Country: Table 242 MU Usage Statistics: Table 243 MU China and Korea Peak Concurrent Users Table 244 Yahoo Revenue and Income:
The Online Game Market 2004 Table of Contents
DFC Intelligence DFC Intelligence Phone 858-780-9680 9320 Carmel Mountain Rd Fax 858-780-9671 Suite C www.dfcint.com San Diego, CA 92129 The Online Game Market 2004 Table of Contents August 2004 Conditions
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