11 Video. Games. More than just a game. Summary
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1 11 Video Games More than just a game Summary The video games market in the Netherlands rose by 23.2 percent in 2007, an improvement from the 21.6 percent rise in Except for 2005 when growth moderated to a still healthy 13.3 percent, annual increases during the past years have exceeded 20 percent. The market was fueled in 2007 by a full year of the Wii platform and the introduction of the Sony PlayStation 3 platform. Console hardware sales jumped by 60 percent in 2007 and games associated with the new consoles, as well as strong sales for games that play on the existing consoles, contributed to the 32.7 percent rise in console game sales in Console games have become very popular in the Netherlands. During the past five years 3.2 million consoles were purchased and console game sales more than doubled. Console games accounted for 48 percent of total video game spending in 2007 and generated 63 percent of the growth. Online games are the second largest category at 33 percent of total spending. The Netherlands has one of the most active online game markets in Europe. High broadband penetration in the Netherlands fuels demand for online video games. Massive multiplayer online games (MMOGs) are also very popular in the Netherlands and are driving spending. MMOGs allow thousands of people worldwide to play the same game simultaneously. The World of Warcraft (WoW) franchise, the most popular online game in the world, is a major seller in the Netherlands. As many online games such as WoW are PC games, initial sales of these games are supporting the PC game market. Despite the continued surge in console games in 2007, PC game spending was steady. There also is a small wireless game market in the Netherlands that is posting double-digit annual increases. While most titles sold in the Netherlands come from the major international video game publishers, there is an active local video game industry with more than 70 companies in the Netherlands involved in developing and producing video games. Streamline Studios, Playlogic, W! games, Triumph Studios, Game Entertainment Europe and Khaeon are among the local game developers. The Killzone, Age of Wonders, and Worms franchises are among the popular video game series developed in the Netherlands. Early 2008, Engine Software was licensed to develop games for the Wii console. The violent content of video games is an issue of concern in the Netherlands. Germany, the United Kingdom, and other countries in Europe ban games that receive an Adults Only rating from the Entertainment Software Ratings Board (ESRB). In the Netherlands, however, while the government can restrict sales of certain games to minors, the law does not allow for an outright ban of a videogame. Consequently, a game such as Manhunt 2 from Rockstar Games can be sold in the Netherlands although it is banned in most countries. Games tied to marketing campaigns are a relatively new development in the Netherlands. Nivea, for example, introduced an advergame in 2007 where players on the metro have to push the brake at the right time to stop the train exactly at the station. Volkswagen also introduced an advergame in the Netherlands to celebrate its 60th anniversary. Players match songs with the decade in which they were released, which in turn is keyed to the Volkwagen models popular during that period. Advergames attract users and provide an appealing platform to promote a brand. The huge popularity of the Wii console from Nintendo and a full-year of sales of the PlayStation 3 (PS3) from Sony should continue to generate double-digit growth in console games during the next two years. We expect these new platforms to mature by 2010, leading to a drop to single-digit growth. We expect an additional year of double-digit growth in online games, but with broadband penetration already high in the Netherlands, further broadband household growth will drop to mid-to-low single-digit rates and spending on online games will also moderate to single-digit increases. 150 PricewaterhouseCoopers At the dawn of new traditions 151
2 The expansion of online games will continue to support the PC game market because MMOGs typically are PC titles that must first be purchased in that format in order to play them online. We expect the PC game market to be relatively stable during the next five years. The roll-out of high-speed wireless networks and the introduction of new wireless handsets that are designed to facilitate video games will allow more sophisticated wireless games to be downloaded, which should continue to fuel growth. We look for three additional years of doubledigit gains. The wireless subscriber base in the Netherlands is saturated, which limits growth in the wireless universe, which in turn will begin to slow growth in wireless game spending during the latter part of the forecast period. The overall video games market will expand from 472 million in 2007 to 703 million in, growing at an 8.3 percent compound annual rate. The Netherlands share of video game spending in EMEA was 5.2 percent in We expect this share to fall to 4.8 percent in principally because of a drop in share for online games. The Netherlands currently has one of the largest online game markets in EMEA. As other countries begin to catch up, the Netherlands share will decline, which will offset share gains in console and PC games. Console Game Market Each of the three main console manufacturers introduced new platforms during the past two years. The Xbox 360 from Microsoft was launched in the Netherlands in late 2005, Wii from Nintendo entered the market in late 2006, and PS3 from Sony was introduced in March These introductions followed the launch in March 2005 of the Nintendo Dual Screen (DS) platform that provides two screens and two views of a game. Manufacturing delays associated with the Blu-ray high definition disc player, delayed the launch of the PS3, which originally was scheduled for Console hardware unit sales in the Netherlands rose 11.5 percent in 2006 to 620,000 and then surged by 60 percent to 990,000 in 2007, fueled principally by the huge popularity of the Wii. This figure would have been even higher were it not for the fact that there were shortages of the Wii console. The Wii was often sold out, limiting overall sales of both hardware and software in We expect that pent-up demand for the Wii will fuel growth in The PS3 got off to a slow start, in part because of its high price point of 599 for the 60 GB model. Thisprice was reduced to 499 in October 2007 and a 40 GB model was introduced for 399. These more moderately priced consoles helped boost sales. The introduction of the lower priced 40 GB model was an attempt to broaden its market beyond the hard core gamers but the 40 GB model lacks the capability to play the PS2 games. It is anticipated that Sony will introduce an 80 GB model in EMEA in Sony announced that it will no longer produce the 60 GB model. The introduction of new hardware platforms is accompanied by the introduction of new games that incorporate the new hardware features. In 2007, for example, three of the top-10 console titles were games that play on the Wii platform. While new platforms provide a boost to the market, most purchasers have legacy platforms and continue to buy games for those platforms. For example, the top-two selling console titles in 2007 were titles and that platform accounted for four of the top-six sellers. There is still a strong Video Game Market ( Millions) Console Games Console Hardware Unit Sale (Thousands) Top-10 Console Titles: 2007 Title Brain Training More Brain Training Wii Play + Remote Controller FIFA 2007 Pokemon Diamond New Super Mario Bros. FIFA 2008 Grand Theft Auto San Andreas Mario Party 8 Super Mario Galaxy Source: NVPI Platform Wii PS2 PS2 PS2 Wii Wii % Change PC Games % Change Online Games % Change Wireless Games % Change Total % Change of EMEA Source: NVPI Sources: NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 152 PricewaterhouseCoopers At the dawn of new traditions 153
3 market for the older PS2 platform, which accounted for three of the top-10 sellers in While video games are generally viewed as targeted at young people, they actually appeal to wide spectrum of ages. In fact, the top-two titles Brain Training and More Brain Training are based on neuroscience and studies of the impact of reading and mathematical exercises that stimulate the brain, and are generally purchased by older people. New games for the new platforms typically sell at higher prices than games for older platforms, which are often discounted. With each manufacturer having new platforms in 2007, there were many new games introduced in 2007 and the average price rose 5.8 percent, the first gain during the past five years. With new games expected to comprise a larger percentage of sales during the next few years, we expect the average price to continue to increase during the next two years. By 2010, as the current generation platforms Console Game Market start to age, prices will stabilize and then come down again. We project the average price to rise from in 2007 to in, a 1.4 percent compound annual increase. The introduction of new games also drives unit sales. Unit sales jumped 52.8 percent in 2006 and an additional 25.5 percent in We expect two more years of doubledigit growth, buoyed in the near term by pent-up demand for the Wii console and associated Wii games. We then expect unit sales growth to moderate as the current platforms age. By, unit sales will total a projected 10.2 million, an 8.1 percent compound annual increase. We project spending on console games to increase to 360 million in, a 9.7 percent compound annual increase. The Netherlands share of the console game market has increased steadily during the past five years, from 2.7 percent in 2003 to 4.1 percent in We expect it will rise to 4.6 percent in 2008 to average 5.0 percent during Unit Sales (Millions) % Change Average Price ( ) % Change Aggregate Spending ( Millions) % Change of EMEA Sources: NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Online Games Online games enable video gamers to play against each other over the Internet. The online game market is composed of several segments. The segment that is potentially the most lucrative is the MMOG market. These games are usually role-playing games that take place in fantasy or medieval worlds and can be played over long periods of time. Players pay a monthly fee to participate. Providers also generate incremental revenues by selling in-game accessories to enhance the gaming experience. Dynamic advertising in online games, where ads can be updated in the online versions, represents another revenue stream. In some cases, games are provided for free and revenues are generated through advertising or sponsorships. Sponsored online advergames are yet another revenue stream. Our online figures consist only of subscription spending. Currently, online games are primarily played on PCs. An online console market is emerging with the new generation of consoles, each of which emphasizes the online experience. Each of the three manufacturers has established an online environment where consumers can buy additional content and interact with each other through online chat sessions and direct competition. A third segment consists of casual gamers who go to a Web site and play strategy or puzzle games. Of the female gamers in the Netherlands, 86 percent play online games, most of which are casual games. A broadband connection is crucial to online gaming because speed is a crucial element in the video game experience. With the highest broadband penetration rate in EMEA, the Netherlands has one of the largest online game markets. Between 2003 and 2007, the broadband universe in the Netherlands nearly quadrupled, leading to explosive growth in the number of online video game subscribers. There were 1.28 million online video game subscribers in the Netherlands in 2007, up 23.1 percent from With 87 percent of Internet households already on broadband, growth in the broadband universe will necessarily slow. We expect only one more year of double-digit growth. Thereafter, growth in the broadband household universe will drop to mid-to-low single-digit advances. During the five-year forecast period as a whole, the number of broadband households will expand at a 5.3 percent compound annual rate to 7 million in. In 2007, 23.7 percent of broadband subscribers were online video game subscribers, well above the 10.1 percent average for EMEA as a whole. After reaching 20 percent in 2004, online video game penetration growth slowed during the past three years, averaging a 1.0 percentage-point gain per year. We anticipate a comparable increase during the next five years. By, an estimated 28.6 percent of broadband subscribers will subscribe to an online game service, a 4.9 percent advance over five years. The number of online video game subscribers will rise to 2 million by, a 9.3 percent compound annual gain. Average monthly subscription spending has declined during the past five years, a trend that we expect to continue. By, the average online video game subscription will cost an estimated 9.55 per month, down 1.2 percent on a compound annual basis from in Aggregate spending on online games will increase from 156 million in 2007 to an estimated 229 million in, an 8.0 percent compound annual increase. The Netherlands share of the online market in EMEA peaked at 22.0 percent in 2004 and has declined to 11.9 percent by 2007, the result of broadband growth slowing in the Netherlands while the rest of EMEA was catching up. We expect the online video games market to continue to grow much faster in other countries than in the Netherlands during the next five years. The Netherlands share of this market will fall to 6.0 percent in. 154 PricewaterhouseCoopers At the dawn of new traditions 155
4 Online Game Market Broadband Subscribers (Millions) % Change Online Video Game Subscribers (Millions) % Change Online Video Game Penetration of Broadband Households (%) Average Monthly Subscription Fee ( ) % Change Annual Subscription Spending ( Millions) % Change of EMEA Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates PC Games The expansion in the console market has, to some degree, come at the expense of the PC market, as most of the interest in video games has centered on the new console platforms. Nevertheless the PC game market has held up, in large part because of the growing popularity of MMOGs, most of which require the purchase of a PC game. In 2007, World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade, a new MMOG in the WoW franchise, was the leading PC game title and World of Warcraft ranked third in 2007 as it did in The Sims franchise was represented by two titles. There were also two Command & Conquer titles in the top-10 in 2007 and two Rollercoaster Tycoon titles. Grand Theft Auto San Andreas was the only title to appear in both the top-10 console and top-10 PC lists. Top-10 PC Titles: 2007 Title World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars World of Warcraft Best of Rollercoaster Tycoon 3 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare Rollercoaster Tycoon 2 The Sims 2: Seasons The Sims Deluxe Command & Conquer General Grand Theft Auto San Andreas Unit sales have followed a volatile up-and-down pattern during the past four years, with a double-digit decrease in 2005 interspersed between two double-digit advances. In 2007, unit sales edged down 2.6 percent to 3.7 million. A 2.7 percent rise in the average price, however, offset that decrease and spending remained stable at 57 million. PC games are much less expensive than console games. The average PC game in 2007 cost 15.41, less than half the for the average console game. We expect unit sales to continue to be supported by the growing MMOG market, helping to offset the ongoing migration to console games. We project unit sales to remain at 3.7 million annually through 2011 and then dip to 3.6 million in as the next generation of consoles is introduced and attracts attention from the PC market. MMOGs tend not to be discounted and we project the average price to increase at a 1.4 percent compound annual rate to in. Spending will total an estimated 59 million in, a 0.7 percent compound annual increase from The Netherlands comprised 5.8 percent of the PC game market in EMEA in 2007, down from a five-year peak of 7.5 percent in We expect this share to increase to 6.2 percent by 2011, reflecting the relatively large online game market in the Netherlands that in turn fuels sales of PC titles. Source: NVPI 156 PricewaterhouseCoopers At the dawn of new traditions 157
5 PC Game Market Unit Sales (Millions) % Change Average Price ( ) % Change Aggregate Spending ( Millions) % Change of EMEA Sources: NVPI, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Wireless Games Wireless games are games played on mobile phones or other wireless devices. In contrast with online games that use PC and/or console game titles, wireless games have been generally distinct from PC and console games, although some PC and console games can be downloaded on mobile phones. Because of the limited capacity of mobile phones compared to consoles or PCs, wireless games have fewer graphics, are slower than other platforms, and are generally less elaborate. Mobile operators typically include free games with their handsets to stimulate interest and to induce mobile subscribers to pay incremental fees to download additional games. In contrast with its online game market, the Netherlands has a relatively small wireless video game market, accounting for only 2.5 percent of spending in EMEA in Nevertheless, at 1.3 million in 2007, there were actually more wireless video game players than online video game subscribers. Spending, however, was only 32 million, just 20 percent that of online games. The reason is that wireless games are relatively inexpensive compared to online monthly subscriptions, costing an average of only 3.65 in Wireless carriers have a strong motivation to provide incremental services such as games because they will no longer be able to generate revenue growth through subscriber gains as the wireless telephone market is saturated. The number of wireless telephone subscribers in the Netherlands rose by only 1.2 percent in 2007 and we expect growth to average only 0.7 percent on a compound annual basis during the next five years. Leading wireless telephone operators upgraded their networks to 3G early in the decade. More recently, wireless networks have been further upgraded to High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) that delivers download speeds up to 1.8 Mbps. HSDPA is now available to 90 percent of the population. We expect the rollout of high- Wireless Game Market Wireless Telephone Subscribers (Millions) % Change Percent Using Wireless Games (%) Number of Users % Change Annual Downloads Per User % Change Aggregate Number of Downloads % Change Average Price ( ) % Change Aggregate Annual Spending ( Millions) % Change of EMEA Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates speed wireless networks and the introduction of sophisticated handsets designed to play video games to fuel the wireless video game market during the next five years. They will enable the development of more sophisticated wireless games, which should spur demand. In 2007, an estimated 7.5 percent of wireless telephone subscribers downloaded wireless games. We project that share to more than double to 14.5 percent by. This will translate into 2.5 million wireless game users in, a 14.0 percent compound annual increase from PricewaterhouseCoopers At the dawn of new traditions 159
6 The average number of downloads per user has declined during the past four years, the typical pattern of developing markets. Users initially download a large number of games as the service is a novelty. Over time, the novelty wears off and users download at a lower but sustainable rate. In 2007, downloads per user averaged 6.75 compared to 8 in We expect that figure to continue to trend down as penetration increases and new users represent a declining proportion of the overall user base. By, the average wireless game user will download 5.5 games annually. Growing sophistication in wireless networks will allow for more elaborate wireless games, which will put upward pressure on pricing. We expect the average price to rise from e 3.60 in 2006 to e 4.00 in 2010 where we expect it will plateau. Growth will average 1.8 percent on a compound annual basis. Spending on wireless games will increase to e 55 million by, growing by 11.4 percent compounded annually. The Netherlands share of the wireless video games market fell from 4.9 percent in 2003 to 2.5 percent in We expect that share to continue to decline, falling to 2.1 percent by PricewaterhouseCoopers
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