Market study on European robotics

Transcription

1 RockEU Robotics Coordination Action for Europe Grant Agreement Number: Instrument: Coordination and Support Action Market study on European robotics Deliverable D3.1.1 Lead contractor for this deliverable: Due date of deliverable: April 2014 Actual submission date: July 2014 Dissemination level: Public Revision: 1.0 Fraunhofer IPA

2 Executive summary During the previous years, service robotics statistics has been well developed through the International Federation of Robotics IFR, particularly through the long standing cooperation between the IFR Statistical Department and Fraunhofer IPA; While the statistical data, published in the World Robotics Yearbook has been well received by media, funding agencies, investors and technology scouts, it was felt that for effective policy making some facets are missing such as data for the categorization of the supply side economics. Since many of these service robotics companies are start-ups it is of particular interest to statistically monitor these in terms of growth, job creation etc. in order to define measures to effectively fuel sustainable start-up creations and general industrial innovation for economic growth and quality jobs. The objective of this continuous activity in RockEU market and society observations is to provide a solid basis of data from a European perspective regarding robotics market data, basic business structural data of European robot suppliers, particularly in the fragmented service robotics domain for fueling the RockEU activities particularly in its road-mapping and entrepreneurial-related aspects. Furthermore, this task is dedicated to providing this information to stakeholder groups and media in regular updates. This extension of service robotics statistics will primarily build on the existing and established work of market observation and surveys, statistics and forecasts provided by the annual World Robotics Report (particularly the service robotics section), but will also be complemented by other public and commercial data sources. After the elaboration and introduction of a revised statistical scheme it is planned to slightly extend the IFR questionnaire by further items (e.g. current employment numbers in service robotics) and carry out a structural business survey. The result will be an annual report including an executive summary for immediate communication to the robotics community, interested media or other interested audiences (e.g., as a download). This deliverable derives the missing criteria and items for structural business statistics in service robotics, the procedure to retrieve these data and generate the statistics in a step-wise fashion. The actual market and supplier analysis will be performed as a next step. Almost all structural business data may be retrieved from business registers, particularly from and other sources (e.g. LexisNexis). Moreover we will include a categorization of end-user analysis of (professional) service robotics. This will be the part of this year s work for producing the upcoming Deliverable D3.1.2 in Month 28 (i.e. next year). RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 2 of 11

3 Content 1. Introduction Status regarding market and society observations History of the service robotics statistics Recent service robotics data Approach towards a Structural Business Statistics Retrieval of other relevant service robotics industry data and further steps Conclusion and outlook References RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 3 of 11

4 Chapter 1 1. Introduction Coordination of research and development, technology transfer and entrepreneurial activities in robotics should be based on current market developments, reliable forecasts and solid long-term trends. These data should be completed with data characterizing the supply side of service robotics (SR) through structural business statistics. This will be of particular relevance for the road-mapping process (see WP1) with respect to the prioritization of measures and policies related to technologies, innovation, public procurement, ELSissues, and standardization. Furthermore, consistent and comparable statistical material on market data and forecasts, as well as on critical demands and trends is not only valuable for any type of communication (from scientific/technical publications to dissemination and PR), but very much in demand by any stakeholder group and the media in particular. During the previous years, service robotics statistics has been well developed through the International Federation of Robotics IFR, particularly through its Statistical Department; While the statistical data, published in the World Robotics Yearbook has been well received by media, funding agencies, investors and technology scouts, it was felt that for effective policy making some facets are missing, such as data for the categorization of the supply side, i.e. service robot manufacturers. Since many of these companies are start-ups it is of particular interest to statistically monitor these in terms of growth, job creation etc. to define measures to effectively fuel sustainable start-up creations. The objective of market and society observations is to provide a solid basis of data from a European perspective regarding robotics market data (status, forecasts and major trends), basic business structural data of European robot suppliers, particularly in the fragmented service robotics domain (professional and domestic) and overall opportunities and trends for the activities in RockEU. Furthermore, this task is dedicated to providing this information to stakeholder groups and media in regular updates. This extension of service robotics statistics will not only build on the existing and established work of market observation and surveys, statistics and forecasts provided by the annual World Robotics Report (particularly the service robotics section), but will also be complemented by other public and commercial data sources (e. g. Eurostat, UNECE, OECD) where appropriate. After the elaboration and introduction of a revised statistical scheme it is planned to extend the IFR questionnaire by additional items and carry out a structural business survey. The result will be an annual report including an executive summary for immediate communication to the robotics community, interested media or other interested audiences (e.g., as a download). 2. Status regarding market and society observations 2.1. History of the service robotics statistics In 1999, service robots statistics were assessed statistically for the first time through a joint publication by IFR and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE, Geneva). Prior to this effort a suitable classification scheme for the heterogeneous domain of service robots and a data collection scheme have been worked out and improved ever since, jointly with standardization efforts in robotics. Today, the IFR World Robotics section on service robotics has established itself as the reference publication in statistics, market forecasts, and product overview. Robot suppliers, media, government bodies, financial analysts and technology scouts are among its readers. In response to the increasing interest in service robotics it was decided in 2008 by the IFR Statistical Department that from 2010 on the World Robotics Report be expanded into a two volume edition. Therefore, the most recent volume published in September 2013 marked the fourth edition of the World Robotics Service Robotics yearbook. Due to the overwhelming activities in the field, that volume again has increased in size compared to the years before. The next issue is again expected to appear in September 2014 The employed statistical scheme is based on the current ISO definition ISO 8373 of service robots: RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 4 of 11

5 Chapter 2 A robot is an actuated mechanism programmable in two or more axes with a degree of autonomy, moving within its environment, to perform intended tasks. Autonomy in this context means the ability to perform intended tasks based on current state and sensing, without human intervention. A service robot is a robot that performs useful tasks for humans or equipment excluding industrial automation application. Note: The classification of a robot into industrial robot or service robot is done according to its intended application. A personal service robot or a service robot for personal use is a service robot used for a non-commercial task, usually by lay persons. Examples are domestic servant robot, automated wheelchair, and personal mobility assist robot. A professional service robot or a service robot for professional use is a service robot used for a commercial task, usually operated by a properly trained operator. Examples are cleaning robot for public places, delivery robot in offices or hospitals, fire-fighting robot, rehabilitation robot and surgery robot in hospitals. In this context an operator is a person designated to start, monitor and stop the intended operation of a robot or a robot system. A robot system is a system comprising robot(s), end-effector(s) and any machinery, equipment, devices, or sensors supporting the robot performing its task. According to the definition, a degree of autonomy is required for service robots ranging from partial autonomy (including human robot interaction) to full autonomy (without active human robot intervention). Therefore, in addition to fully autonomous systems service robot statistics include systems which may also be based on some degree of human robot interaction (physical or informational) or even full tele-operation. In this context human robot-interaction means information and action exchanges between human and robot to perform a task by means of a user interface. Since the mid-90s, UNECE and IFR have adopted a preliminary definition and system for classifying service robots by categories and types of interaction which has converged over the years into the current classification scheme; see Table 2.1 and Table 2.2. Section I Types of robots: Service robots for personal/domestic use 1-6 Robots for domestic tasks 1 Robot companions/assistants/humanoids 2 Vacuuming, floor cleaning 3 Lawn mowing 4 Pool cleaning 5 Window cleaning 6 Others 7-10 Entertainment robots 7 Toy/hobby robots 8 Multimedia/remote presence 9 Education and research 10 Others Elderly and handicap assistance 11 Robotized wheelchairs 12 Personal aids and assistive devices 13 Other assistance functions 14 Personal transportation (AGV for persons)* 15 Home security & surveillance* 16 Other Personal / domestic robots Table 2.1: Classification of service robots by application areas and types of robots; service robots for personal/domestic use. RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 5 of 11

6 Chapter 2 Section II Types of robots: Service robots for professional use Field robotics 17 Agriculture 18 Milking robots 19 other robots for livestock farming* 20 Forestry and silviculture 21 Mining robots 22 Space robots 23 Others Professional cleaning 24 Floor cleaning 25 Window and wall cleaning (including wall climbing robots) 26 Tank, tube and pipe cleaning 27 Hull cleaning (aircraft, vehicles, etc.) 28 Other cleaning tasks Inspection and maintenance systems 29 Facilities, plants 30 Tank, tubes, pipes and sewers* 31 Other inspection and maintenance systems Construction and demolition 32 Nuclear demolition & dismantling 33 Building construction 34 Robots for heavy/civil construction 35 Other construction and demolition systems Logistic systems* 36 Automated guided (AGV) vehicles in manufacturing environments 37 AGVs in non-manufacturing environments (indoor) 38 Cargo handling, outdoor logistics 39 Other logistics Medical robotics 40 Diagnostic systems* 41 Robot assisted surgery or therapy 42 Rehabilitation systems 43 Other medical robots* Rescue & security applications 44 Fire and disaster fighting robots 45 Surveillance/security robots 46 other rescue and security robots Defense applications 47 Demining robots 48 Unmanned aerial vehicles 49 Unmanned ground based vehicles (e.g. bomb fighting) 50 other defense applications 51 Underwater systems 52 Powered Human Exoskeletons 53 Mobile Platforms in general use Public relation robots and joy rides 54 Hotel and restaurant robots 55 Mobile guidance, information robots 56 Robots in marketing 57 Robot joy rides** 58 Others* 59 Other professional service robots not specified above Table 2.2: Classification of service robots by application areas and types of robots; service robots for professional use. RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 6 of 11

7 Chapter 2 Since very few national organizations have had any comprehensive statistics on service robots at all, UNECE and IFR decided to collect the statistics directly from the manufacturers of service robots worldwide. This process has been maintained (and improved) ever since. In regular, systematic mailings, service robot manufacturers are asked to report data broken down by the given application areas. Figure 2.1 depicts the annual data collection procedure. Figure 2.1: Annual procedure for collecting service robotics data by the IFR 2.2. Recent service robotics data About 16,100 service robots for professional use were sold in 2012, 2% more than in 2011, reports the IFR Statistical Department in the new study World Robotics 2013 Service Robots, which was published 18 September 2013 Frankfurt. The sales value slightly decreased to US$ 3.4bn. See Figure 2.2 and Figure 2.3 for more detail. Turning to the projections for the period of 2013 to 2016, sales forecast which were provided by companies worldwide indicate an increase to about 94,800 units with a value of about US$ 17.1bn. About three million service robots for personal and domestic use sold in 2012 So far, service robots for personal and domestic use are mainly in the areas of domestic (household) robots, which include vacuum and floor cleaning, lawn-mowing robots, and entertainment and leisure robots, including toy robots, hobby systems, education and research. In 2012, it was estimated that two million domestic robots were sold, which is 15% more than in 2011 and include all the types listed above. The value was about US$ 697m. As for entertainment robots, about 1.1m units were counted in 2012, 29% more than in Numerous companies, especially from Asia, offer relatively low-priced toy robots. But among those mass products there are increasingly more sophisticated products for the home entertainment and hobby market. The total value of the 2012 sales of entertainment robots amounted to US$ 523m. It is estimated that about 22m units of service robots for personal use will be sold between 2013 and 2016 thus indicating the continued strong growth of service robotics in this field. Annual sales [units sold] Main applications Annual sales [units sold] Other application categories Figure 2.2: Annual sales in units for service robotics in professional application areas (excerpt) RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 7 of 11

8 Chapter 3 Sales: Personal/Domestic Robots Annual sales [in Mio. US$] Total forecast Photos: Samsung neato xv Aldebaran NAO Festo Robotino Friendly Robotics Household robots Entertainment, leisure robots Figure 2.3: Annual sales and forecasts for personal/domestic robots 3. Approach towards a Structural Business Statistics Data currently retrieved by questionnaire among 250+ service robot manufacturers contain the following set of data, see Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1: Robots sold in 2013 Robots sold in 2013 number of units turnover in millions of national currency Projected sales in Forecast for your company total turnover Europe America Asia/Pacific others Total Europe America Asia/Pacific others Total number of units total world in millions of national currency I Personal/Domestic Robots ,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0, , Robots for domestic tasks ,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0, , Robot companions / / assistants / humanoids 2 - Vacuuming, floor cleaning 3 Lawn mowing Table 3.1: Extract of template for accessing data sent out to service robot suppliers according to categories depicted in Figure 3.1. >250 Service robot Service robot Service manufacturer robot manufacturer manufacturer Retrieved annually through questionnaite Company specific data Service robotics Service robotics Service application robotics area application area application area Robot sales previous year Retrieval of structural business data Business demographics Robot units Robots in value [currency] Economic activity Main location Employment Legal form Ownership Enterprise birth Creation of business Output-related Turn-over Value added Labor input Input-related Goods, services input Capital input World region Figure 3.1: Extension of currently retrieved service robotics data (orange) by new data categories on industry structure (blue) RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 8 of 11

9 Chapter 3 The goal of the company specific data is to characterize the supply industry according to typical data along the main categories of structural business statistical (SBS) data: business demographics, output and input related data. Generally SBS describe the economy through the observation of the activity of units engaged in an economic activity. They answer such questions as: how much wealth is created in an activity? How many work forces are needed to create this wealth? How is this activity developing? Is this activity participating in the growth of the economy? How much investments are realized in this activity? These categories and their sub-categories are in line with typical statistical frameworks provided by Eurostat or OECD etc. Typical under-categories are [1]: Economic activity (principal, secondary, ancillary). The principal activity of a statistical unit is the activity which contributes most to the total value. The identification of a principal activity is necessary to allocate a unit to a particular ISIC / NACE heading added of that unit, see [2], [3] for explanation of the systematics of economic activities. Main location Legal form or ownership. The following legal forms can be found in most Member States: o Sole proprietorship: Enterprise owned exclusively by one natural person. o Partnership: Association of persons who conduct a business under a collective name. It can take the form of a limited partnership. o Limited liability companies: Enterprises comprising joint-stock companies, limited partnerships with share capital and private limited company. o o Non-profit making bodies. Enterprises with other forms of legal constitution: This group includes nationalized industries, or publicly-owned enterprises. Enterprise birth is the date on which a unit was born. Number of persons employed/employment is defined as the total number of persons who work in the observation unit (inclusive of working proprietors, partners working regularly in the unit and unpaid family workers), as well as persons who work outside the unit who belong to it and are paid by it (e.g. sales representatives, delivery personnel, repair and maintenance teams). Total purchases of goods and services include the value of all goods and services purchased during the accounting period for resale or consumption in the production process, excluding capital goods (the consumption of which is registered as consumption of fixed capital). Turnover comprises the totals invoiced by the observation unit during the reference period, and this corresponds to market sales of goods or services supplied to third parties; it includes all duties and taxes on the goods or services invoiced by the unit with the exception of the VAT invoiced Value added at factor costs is the gross income from operating activities after adjusting for operating subsidies and indirect taxes. Capital input is defined as investment during the reference period in all tangible goods. Included are new and existing tangible capital goods, whether bought from third parties or produced for own use (i.e. Capitalized production of tangible capital goods), having a useful life of more than one year including non-produced tangible goods such as land. RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 9 of 11

10 Chapter 4 4. Retrieval of other relevant service robotics industry data and further steps Most of the data for creating service robotics structural business statistics can be retrieved from typical public sources such as business registers (e.g. public: or private e.g. NexiLexi [4]). Item/ category Business registered Prio Data already used Possible source for data retrieval business register questionnaire Business demographics Economic activity (primary) H Main location H Employment (total, in SR) H (total) (SR) Legal form, ownership M Enterprise birth M Creation of SR business/year H ( ) Output related Total turn-over H Value added (in SR) M ( ) Labor input (in SR) M ( ) Input related Goods, service input (in SR) L ( ) Capital input (in SR) L ( ) Table 4.1: Source for data retrieval for structural business statistics of service robotics industry (Relevance coding: H=high, M=medium, L=low); check-marks in parenthesis are optional criteria for later considerations The implication is that the IFR questionnaire should be extended by two items which may be of value for further statistics not easily possible to retrieve otherwise: Employment in service robotics (annually) Creation of service robotics activities (once) All other data rated of higher relevance may be retrieved from business registers (total) Employment Legal form, ownership Total turn over Future extensions may comprise additional info to be retrieved from individual companies such as: Value added (in SR) Labor input (in SR) Goods, service input (in SR) Capital input (in SR) Further steps are defined in the following way, see Figure 4.1. Typically service robotics related addresses are continuously collected. The following are a great source to facilitate this process: supporting organisations and persons such as the industrial member directory of eurobotics, national robotics associations as given in [5] or private organisations such as [6]. The service robotics internal data base is now approaching some 300 addresses. Efforts are underway to send our questionnaire by national robotics associations. This procedure is now well established for Korea, and japan is expected to follow. Both organisations are accepting the classification scheme given above. Further discussions are needed for further industry structural data categories. RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 10 of 11

11 Chapter 5 Information is collected, edited, published by the IFR. Through the cooperation with the IFR it is expected that these data may be accessed and enriched by European industry structural data sources for further market research. Worldwide: National Robotics Organisations Collect service robotics addresses (continously) through various sources Use standardized classification scheme (ISO) Send out, collect and consolidate statistical data on basis of standardized classification scheme (at least in most items); expand statistical scheme Collection of Service Robotics specific data Submit to IFR Statistical Department Production and publication of Annual World-Wide statistics by IFR Statistical Department Market research and forecasts Merge specific service robotics data with other sources (business registers, UNECE/UNECE, business research data bases) Produce national, EU-wide surveys Figure 4.1: Procedure for producing national, EU-wide surveys. 5. Conclusion and outlook The last robotics questionnaire was prepared around Christmas 2013, sent out in February and is being collected and processed at the moment. As it was not possible to integrate the full set of items listed above into the questionnaire for this year s round, the remaining criteria (Employment in service robotics, Creation/start of service robotics activities) is planned to be included in the next round. All other data may be retrieved from business registered, particularly from and other sources (e.g. LexisNexis). 6. References [1] Structural business statistics (sbs); Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS). Compiling agency: Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, [Online]. Available: [Zugriff am 1 July 2014]. [2] Detailed structure and explanatory notes ISIC Revision 4, United Nations Statistics Devision, [Online]. Available: [Zugriff am 1 July 2014]. [3] NACE Rev. 2 - Statistical classification of economic activities, European Commission eurostat, [Online]. Available: [Zugriff am 1 July 2014]. [4] LexisNexis Products & Services, LexisNexis (r), [Online]. Available: [Zugriff am 1 July 2014]. [5] International Federation of Robotics; IFR Industry associations, [Online]. Available: [Zugriff am 1 July 2014]. [6] F. Tobe, Industry Directories, [Online]. Available: [Zugriff am 01 July 2014]. RockEU Deliverable D3.1.1 Page 11 of 11