ICES advice for herring stocks for Ghislain Chouinard, ICES ACOM vice-chair For PELAC (Den Haag, July 11, 2017)

Transcription

1 ICES advice for herring stocks for 2018 Ghislain Chouinard, ICES ACOM vice-chair For PELAC (Den Haag, July 11, 2017)

2 Basis of ICES Advice Management Basis for Plan ICES Advice Consistent with Precautionary Approach & agreed by competent authorities as potential basis for advice No ICES MSY approach No ICES PA approach All options in available in catch advice document

3 Basis of ICES Advice Stock categories (based on available knowledge) 1 Stocks with an accepted analytical assessment and forecast 2 Stocks with an analytical assessment and forecast accepted for trends only 3 Stocks with abundance or biomass indices indicative trends Advice basis Management plan or MSY approach MSY approach Precautionary approach MSY approach being developed 4 Stocks with reliable catch and biological data Precautionary approach MSY approach being developed 5 Only landings available Precautionary approach 6 Only landings available and largely discarded Precautionary approach

4 ICES MSY approach (Category 1 stocks) Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low SSB Stay within precautionary boundaries (WKMSYREF 2, 3 & 4, ) ICES MSY Advice Rule (AR): more caution below B lim F MSY B trigger F MSY SSB at start of advisory year

5 All advice available online at: Click on Follow Our Advisory process Latest advice In addition to advice items, Introduction to ICES Advice document describes principles and advice basis For advice release dates, follow link: Follow Advisory process Advice requests and advice release dates Advice online

6 North Sea, Eastern English Channel, Skagerrak and Kattegat Herring North Sea Autumn Spawning Herring Western Baltic Spring Spawners

7 North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Autumn spawners

8 North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Advice for 2018, European Union (EU) Norway management strategy : Catches of no more than tonnes (A-fleet no more than tonnes) Avoid activities that have an impact on the spawning habitat unless shown not to be detrimental. Fishing mortality below F MSY since Recruitment was high in 2014 but but has been lower since then. Spawning biomass above MSY B trigger since Catch in 2016= t.

9 North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) 2014 year-class 2017 assessment 2016 assessment Increase in SSB in 2016, compared to estimates provided last year, is the result of higher estimates of the strong 2014 year class. Results in an increase in advised catch compared to the advice from last year.

10 North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Assumptions for the catch options F values by fleet and total Catches by fleet F ages F ages F ages F ages SSB F ages F ages (wr) Catches Catches Catches Catches (wr) 2 6 (wr) 0 1 (wr) 0 1 (wr) (wr) A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet Assumes catch constraint in 2017 Advice with 0 and 50% TAC transfer flexibility provided for the Management strategy option.

11 North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Fages (wr) 2 6 A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet Fages (wr) 0 1 Fages (wr) 0 1 D-fleet Total stock catch SSB 2018 SSB 2019 ** %SSB change *** A-fleet ^ %TAC change F values by fleet and total Catches by fleet Biomass* Basis Fages (wr) 0 1 Fages (wr) 2 6 Fages (wr) 0 1 A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet Management strategy Other options F = F MSY F = No change in A-fleet TAC A-fleet TAC reduction of 15% A-fleet TAC increase of 15% F = F F pa F lim SSB 2018 = B pa SSB 2018 = B lim SSB 2018 = MSY B trigger * For autumn-spawning stocks, the SSB is determined at spawning time and is influenced by fisheries between 1 January and spawning. ** Assuming same catch option in 2019 as in *** SSB (2018) relative to SSB (2017). ^ A-fleet catches (2018) relative to TAC 2017 for the A-fleet ( tonnes).

12 North Sea Herring (3a, 4 and 7d) Catch options by fleet following the agreed EU Norway management rule Using the North Sea herring long-term management strategy (LTMS) and WBSS F MSY = 0.32, and with 0% and 50% TAC transfer flexibility Fishing mortality TACs and catch by fleet Area Stock Predicted catch 0% transfer Predicted catch NSAS F ages (wr)2 6 F ages (wr)0 1 WBSS F ages (wr)3 6 All All All Subarea 4 and Subarea 4 and NSAS WBSS Div.7.d Div. 7.d Division 3.a Division 3.a Subdiv Area TAC (LTMS, F MSY ) NSAS F ages (wr)2 6 F ages (wr)0 1 WBSS F ages (wr)3 6 A-Fleet B-Fleet C-Fleet D-Fleet F-Fleet Total catch NSAS WBSS NSAS WBSS WBSS NSAS WBSS % transfer NSAS NSAS WBSS

13 Herring in Subdivisions (Western Baltic Spring Spawning Herring)

14 Herring in Subdivisions Advice for 2018, MSY: Catches should be no more than tonnes. This advice applies to the catch of western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS) in subdivisions and the eastern part of Subarea 4. Fishing mortality increased in 2015 and 2016, and is now above F MSY. Low production period: recruitment was at lowest in 2015 and SSB between B Lim and MSY B trigger since Catch in 2016 = t.

15 Herring in Subdivisions Large revision of stock perception relative to the results of the previous assessment. All survey indices were low in 2016.

16 Herring in Subdivisions Catch options F(2017) = 0.44 (Catch constraint); SSB(2016) = 101 kt < MSY B trigger ( 110 kt) F MSY = 0.32 Basis ICES advice basis Total catch (2018) F total (2018) SSB* (2018) SSB* (2019) % SSB change ** % advice change *** MSY approach: F = FMSY SSB2017/MSY Btrigger Other options F = F MSY F pa F lim SSB (2019) = B lim SSB (2019) = B pa SSB (2019) = MSY B trigger F = F F = MAP^ F MSY lower: F = Flower (SSB2017/MSY Btrigger)^^ F = MAP F MSY upper: F = Fupper (SSB2017/MSY Btrigger) ^^ *** Catch 2018 relative to ICES advice for 2017 ( t) for the western Baltic spring-spawning herring stock. ^ MAP multiannual management plan (EU, 2016). ^^ As SSB is currently (2017) below MSY B trigger, the F lower and F upper values in the MAP are adjusted by the SSB 2017 /MSY B trigger ratio. In this situation, values of F larger than FMSY SSB2017/MSY Btrigger = = (corresponding to catches of t in 2018) are not applicable under the MAP.

17 Herring in Subdivisions Catch options Catch options by fleet following the agreed EU Norway management rule Using the North Sea herring long-term management strategy (LTMS) and WBSS F MSY = 0.32, and with 0% and 50% TAC transfer flexibility Note: With 0 % transfer, F WBSS= 0.46 > F MSY Area Fishing mortality NSAS NSAS WBSS F ages F ages F ages (wr) 2 6 (wr) 0 1 (wr) 3 6 All All All TACs and catch by fleet A-fleet B-fleet C-fleet D-fleet F-fleet Total catch Subarea 4 and Subarea 4 and Subdiv. Division 7.d Division 7.d Division 3.a Division 3.a NSAS WBSS Area TAC (LTMS, F MSY ) NSAS NSAS WBSS F ages F ages F ages Stock NSAS WBSS NSAS NSAS (wr) 2 6 (wr) 0 1 (wr) 3 6 WBSS NSAS WBSS WBSS NSAS WBSS Predicted catch % transfer Predicted catch % transfer

18 Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland)

19 Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) Advice for 2018, MSY: Zero tonnes. Stock recovery plan. Activities that have an impact on the spawning habitat of herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental Fishing mortality below F MSY since late Recruitment since 2013 at all-time low. SSB below B lim. Catch in 2016 = t.

20 Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) Combined assessment: 6.a North and 6.a South and 7.b c 30% downward revision of the 2015 SSB compared to previous assessment. Uncertainty lack of information on recruitment.

21 Herring in Divisions 6.a and 7.b,c (West of Scotland, West of Ireland) Catch options ICES in 2016 provided advice on a scientific monitoring fishery = 4840 t Catch options assume agreed scientific monitoring TAC of 5800t Spawning biomass expected to decline with 0 tonnes in 2018; B lim = t Basis Total catch (2018) F total (2018) SSB (2018) % SSB change % TAC change *** ICES advice basis MSY approach^^ : zero catch % -100% Other options 2017 Monitoring TAC % 0.00% Advice for scientific monitoring (ICES 2016) % -17% F MSY % 263% F = 0.05^^^ % 18% F pa % 305% F lim % 545% SSB (2019) = B lim^ SSB(2019) = B pa = MSY B trigger^ F = F % -2.10% *** Catch 2018 relative to agreed scientific monitoring TAC of 5800 t (EC, 2016/0203). ^ The B lim, B pa and MSY B trigger options were left blank because B lim cannot be achieved in 2018 even with zero catch advice. ^^ There is no catch option for 2018 that is consistent with the combined stocks recovering to above Blim. ^^^ Fishing mortality corresponding to low impact on stock status.

22 Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea)

23 Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea) Advice for 2018, MSY: Catch of no more than t. Activities that have an impact on the spawning habitat of herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental Benchmarked in Revised estimates. Fishing mortality below FMSY since Recruitment higher in recent years but low in Spawning stock above MSY Btrigger since Catch in 2016 = t.

24 Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea) New acoustic survey included in assessment. Revised perception -significant upwards revisions of the SSB and recruitment -downward revision of fishing mortality.

25 Herring in Division 7.a North of 52º 30 (Irish Sea) Catch options assume that catch for 2017 = TAC constraint = 4127 t Recruitment 2016/2017 = geometric mean. SSB(2016) = t > MSY B trigger ( t ) F MSY = Basis Total catch (2018) F total (2018) SSB (2018) % SSB change ** SSB (2019) % TAC change *** ICES advice basis MSY approach: F MSY Other options F = F pa F lim SSB (2018) = B lim SSB (2018) = B pa SSB (2018) = MSY B trigger ** SSB 2018 relative to SSB *** Catch 2018 relative to TAC 2017 (4127t).

26 Herring in 7.a South of N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland)

27 Herring in 7.a South of N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland) Advice for 2018, MSY: Catch of no more than t. Activities that have an impact on the spawning habitat of herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental Change in perception of the stock. Spawning stock below MSY B trigger and close to B lim. Fishing mortality (F) has increased since 2008 and is now above F MSY. Recruitment below average since Catch in 2016 = t.

28 Herring in 7.a South of N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland) Acoustic surveys from not used because did not cover stock coverage adequate, estimate low. Herring observed close to the bottom. Large revision downward in SSB over previous assessment.

29 Herring in 7.a South of N and 7.gh,jk (Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and Southwest of Ireland) Catch options assume that catch for 2017 = t Recruitment 2017/2018 = Based on stock-recruitment relationship SSB(2017) = t < MSY B trigger ( t) F MSY = 0.26 t Basis Total catch (2018) F total (2018) SSB (2018) % SSB change * SSB (2019) % TAC change ** ICES advice basis MSY approach: F MSY x SSB 2017 /MSY B trigger Other options F MSY F = F pa F lim SSB (2018) = B lim SSB (2018) = B pa *** SSB (2018) = MSY B trigger *** F = F F mgt (0.23) in management strategy proposed by Pelagic AC constrained by 30% change rule * SSB 2019 relative to SSB ** Total catch in 2018 relative to TAC in 2017 (14467 t). *** These catch options are left blank because the stated SSB cannot be achieved even with F = 0.

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