Kyushu Institute of Technology

Transcription

1 Title: Integrted Rescue Service Stellite (IRS-St) Primry Point of Contct (POC): Mohmed Ibrhim Co-uthors: Btsuren Amglnbt, Puline Fure, Kevin Chou Orgniztion:, 1-1 Sensui, Tobt, Kitkyushu , Jpn POC emil: x We pply to Student Prize. 1. Key Concept nd Business Impct on Society nd Environment The number of nturl dissters incresed in the pst decdes tking wy the life of thousnds of humns. In this pper, n ide is presented tht would be used to provide robust nd secure stellite rescue system to guide in ssessing the severity of nturl dissters in ffected res nd help the rescue troops to pln their logistics more efficiently nd effectively. The system trgets South-Estern Asi, which is the most likely re to be exposed to nturl dissters in the coming decde [1]. The ide s concept s shown in (Figure 1), pplied to the cse of Jpn nd Indonesi for the purpose of illustrtion, is to develop rescue bsed system tht enbles users to send messges before, during, nd fter dissters to stellites from their smrt phones vi distributed communiction nodes. The stellites would further forwrd the received short nd simple messges to distributed ground sttions tht would rely the messges to rescue nd informtion processing centers to help in ssessing the severity nd type of dnger. Nodes Rescue Center Disster Are Ground Sttion Rescue Troops Figure 1. Concept of the IRS-St system. 1

2 A dnger mp showing the country segmented into blocks, ech covering 10 km re, will be generted nd updted bsed on the received user signls to represent the severity of dnger in ech block. The 10km re limit ws determined bsed on the popultion density in Jpn nd Indonesi []. Ech smrt phone would communicte with node terminl through WiMAX/Wi-Fi technology. The nodes will ct s multiplexers to gther ll the messges sent by the users nd perform sttisticl nlysis on them. An overll consensus messge will then be sent to the stellites indicting the number of users, the type of dnger nd the severity of the thret they re fcing. To stisfy this requirement, the users would hve to choose the type of dnger they fce such s floods, volcno, erthquke, nd/or tsunmi on their smrt phone specificlly developed pplictions. The users would lso hve to select the severity of the dnger from esy, medium, nd high s well s the number of persons seeking help. The nodes operte in two modes, norml condition mode nd disster mode. In norml condition mode, the nodes ct s distributed ground sensor network for collecting environmentl mesures to help predicting nturl dissters nd provide n erly wrning system. In disster mode, they ct s dt pckets multiplexing units to reduce the overll trffic tht is relyed to stellites. The mission cn be described s n economiclly ffordble nd simple service tht helps minimizing humns sufferings nd provides pece of mind. Other stellite systems tht offer rescue nd monitoring services such s the Disster Monitoring Constelltion (DMC) [3][4], the Africn Resource Mngement constelltion(arm) [5], nd SPOT [6] do exist. However, the system tht the IRS-St tem presents is focusing minly on covering South-Estern Asi with high revisit times. It helps guiding the mngement of resources nd logistics during nturl dissters, ssessing the ctul level of dnger nd its type s fced by hbitnts, nd mking the rescue service more communl nd ccessible by providing it not only to governments nd uthorities but lso to wider group of domestic users. The IRS-St is expected to improve the lifestyle of people by llowing them to hve pece of mind through confident sense of security. The system would eventully hve n impct on the telecommunictions industry to design, develop, nd mnufcture ruggedized node tht would stnd the severe disster conditions, be self powered nd would operte utonomously with no need for remote opertion. Informtion technology industry would lso be ffected by the development of relible softwre pckges to be run on smrt phones nd in the future on specific tblet PCs. To judge the success of the ide, field surveys will be crried out to mesure the stisfction level of the subscribers. The net revenue generted would lso form n importnt mesure of success. For the future doption of the ide on lrge scle, recognition by the interntionl society is sought through obtining n ISO certificte for customer stisfction nd qulity of service in ddition to joining the UN-SPIDER network [7].. Business Model Structure Who? Governments nd privte sector investors. Wht? Assessing the severity of nturl dissters in ffected res which will help mnging rescue resources effectively nd efficiently.

3 Why? No rescue services tht focus specificlly on South-Estern Asi, wheres this region is the most prone to nturl dissters. Provide Low cost service tht is ccessible to wide group of customers using their lredy existing smrt phones. Where? Indonesi nd Jpn becuse those re the two countries with the highest number of nturl dissters occurring due to their geogrphicl loctions [1]. How? When nturl disster occurs, the user sends messge using his/her smrt phone to indicte the current disster severity ccording to his/her point of view, the type of disster tht took plce nd the pproximte number of people in need for rescue. Dt re sent to nodes, which counts the consensus mong messges regrding the informtion which they contin. The node relys the gthered dt to the IRS-St, which sends bck the dt to remote ground sttions nd their bckups. Using the internet, the ground sttions send the dt to rescue nd informtion processing centers. Rescue centers cn respond ccordingly by orgnizing their ctivities nd specific resources s needed in the trgeted res. When? 10 minutes communiction session every 110 minutes with constelltion of 6 nno-stellites nd 4 ground control sttions. How Since the countries prone to nturl dissters do not present the sme Gross much? Domestic Product (GDP), price discrimintion policy will be pplied [8]. Estimte of the ppliction chrge nd monthly subscription fees per user is shown in Tble Business Fesibility Tbles 1,, nd 3 present the initil fixed cost, the nnul vrible cost, nd the nnul revenue of IRS-St service. Figure, totl cost vs. totl revenue, shows tht this business ide is vible nd reches its brekeven point fter 1 yer nd 3 months within totl operting period of 5 yers which corresponds to the stellites lifetimes. The overll trget customers were limited to the current rtio of popultion who own smrt phone. Liner nnul increment of new customers is ssumed over the 5 yers of opertion. The totl Return On Investment (ROI) is in the order of 30%. All vlues re estimted in USD. Tble 1. Initil fixed cost. Totl cost Item Level Quntity Cost [M$] [M$] 1 Ground Sttion 0 Mbps downlink 4 b Pylod(9.6 kbps uplink) c 6 d Stellite 3 Bus (high level ) Softwre development Smrt phone ppliction Node Ruggedized design 36, f TOTAL Uplink speed: 1. kbytes/s, b One min nd one bckup ground sttions in ech country, c detils in logisticl fesibility section, d From orbit nd coverge simultions, e nodes for Jpn nd nodes for Indonesi plus hlf of this quntity s bckups, f The cost include the instlltion of the nodes. 3

4 Tble. Annul vrible cost. Item Quntity Cost [M$] Totl cost [M$] 1 Ground Sttions opertion Node mintennce 36, /month/node Mrketing 0.60 TOTAL Around 10% of the totl revenue. Tble 3. Annul revenue. 1 Item Smrtphone Annul Annul Revenue Monthly fee [$] users subscribers [M$] Subscription in Jpn 1,590,000 4,318, Subscription in Indonesi 1,410,000 b,48, SW pckge in Jpn 1,590,000 4,318, SW pckge in Indonesi 1,410,000 b,48, TOTAL October 011, 17% of Jpnese hd smrt phone [9], b Estimte of number of Indonesins hving smrt phone. 4. Logisticl Fesibility Messge sent from smrt phone to ny node is 6 bytes in length. The totl dt size sent from ll the users in 10km region is expected to be 680 bytes in Jpn nd 880 bytes in Indonesi. Size of messge sent from node to stellite is round 6 bytes. Thus for Jpn, totl dt size of round 1 Mbytes is the mximum be uploded from the whole country nodes simultneously. Multiple ccess to stellites is required. Nodes re used to multiplex the dt coming from users, hence reducing the number of points seeking simultneous multiple ccess. The totl time needed in Jpn to uplod ll nodes messges, sequentilly, is round 14.5 minutes, t n uplink speed of 1. Kbytes/sec; bout 69% of the messges would be relyed to the stellite in view. Tht is fir rtio s it is not expected tht 69% of the country will suffer disster t the sme time. Overll system relibility is mintined through nodes bckups nd constelltion (6 stellites) Totl Revenue Vs. Totl Cost Totl Revenue Totl Cost Brek Even Point Yers Figure. Totl Cost vs. Totl Revenue, Brek Even Point. Pylod nd Bus Level Communiction pylod: 9.6 kbps (Medium), Bus: 0 Mbps (High). Number of Stellites 6 nno-stellites in the sme coordinted LEO orbit t 50.5 o nd Orbit Coordintion inclintion nd 600 km ltitude. Ground Sttions 4 ground sttions: (1 min + 1 bckup) sttions in ech country. Lunch Rocket DNEPR rocket goes to 50.5 o orbits [10][11][1]. 4

5 5. Risk Anlysis Tble 4 presents the risk nlysis for which the ECSS stndrd ws used [13]. Tble 4. Risk nlysis No Risk L S b APO c A d Contingency Pln Erly filures due to Sub-Contrcting bsed on 1. technicl difficulties compnies competency level D 3 Scope Medium during the stellites Insurnce on the stellites to development re-build in cse of filures. Service unvilbility Bckups for the nodes, ground during dissters due to C 5 Qulity High sttions, nd stellites mlfunctions 3. Service cost is high C 5 Cost High Use price discrimintion policy 4. Legl nd Politicl Coordintion with locl C 4 Scope Medium constrints governments nd uthorities Destruction of ny of Use ruggedized components 5. the ground segment Very Modulr design for quick repir D 5 Qulity components during high Insurnce premiums for dissters revitliztion Issuing common stocks in the 6. Securing the needed finncil resources for building the whole system D 4 Cost High securities mrket Public-Privte prtnership Insurnce compnies nd bnks s trget investors L: likelihood, b S: severity, c APO: ffected project objective, d Assessment References [1] [] United Ntions Demogrphic Yerbook, , Economic nd Socil ffirs, [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [1] [13] ECSS-M-00-03B Spce project mngement Risk mngement, 16 August