Broadband Spectrum Forecasting

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1 Broadband Spectrum Forecasting ITU ASP COE TRAINING ON WIRELESS BROADBAND ROADMAP DEVELOPMENT August 2016 Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

2 General Flow of Spectrum Requirement Calculation The ITU-R Report M.2290 provides methodology for estimation of future spectrum requirements of terrestrial IMT The spectrum requirements are calculated using the updated methodology in Recommendation ITU-R M (for the calculator and user guide refer to the Report ITU-R M.2290)

3 Radio Access Technology Group (RATG) used by M.1768 RATG1 covers the digital cellular mobile systems, IMT-2000 systems and their enhancements The method in Recommendation ITU-R M estimates the spectrum demand for RATGs 1 and 2 only, but not those of RATG 3 (RLAN) and RATG 4

4 Example Required Radio Parameters for RATG1 (Pre-IMT systems, IMT-2000 and its enhancements) This example is not applicable to the scenario of large areas with low teledensity coverage. Attribute RATG1 Value Unit Macro cell Micro cell Pico cell Hot spot Application data rate Mbit/s Supported mobility classes Stationary/ pedestrian, low, high Stationary/ pedestrian, low Stationary/ pedestrian Guardband between operators MHz Minimum deployment per operator per RE MHz Number of overlapping network deployment No Granularity of deployment per operator per RE MHz Possibility to flexible spectrum usage (FSU) Boolean No No No FSU margin Multiplier Typical operating frequency MHz < < < Support for multicast Boolean Yes Yes Yes

5 Example Required Radio Parameters for RATG2 (IMT-Advanced systems as described in Recommendation ITU-R M.2012) RATG2 Attribute Value Unit Macro cell Micro cell Pico cell Hot spot Application data rate Mbit/s Supported mobility classes Stationary/ pedestrian, low high Stationary/ pedestrian, low Stationary/ pedestrian Stationary/ pedestrian Guardband between operators MHz Minimum deployment per operator per RE MHz Granularity of deployment per operator per RE MHz Number of overlapping network deployment No Possibility to flexible spectrum usage (FSU) Boolean Yes Yes Yes Yes FSU margin Multiplier Area spectral efficiency bit/s/hz/ cell Area spectral efficiency for multicasting bit/s/hz/ cell Typical operating frequency MHz < < < < Support for multicast Boolean Yes Yes Yes Yes

6 Example Required Radio Parameters for RATG3 (Existing radio LANs and their enhancements) RATG3 Attribute Value Unit Macro cell Micro cell Pico cell Hot spot Application data rate Mbit/s Supported mobility classes Stationary/ pedestrian Support for multicast (yes = 1, no = 0) Yes Stationary/ pedestrian

7 Example Required Radio Parameters for RATG4 (Digital mobile broadcasting systems and their enhancements) Attribute RATG4 Unit Macro cell Application data rate Mbit/s 2 Supported mobility classes All (Stationary/pedestrian, low and high) NOTE 1 Only macro cell is considered for RATG4.

8 η 1, rat,1 Spectral Efficiency In case of multicas since the spectral efficiencies of the two transmission modes can be significantly differen separate area spectral efficiency values are needed. Dense urban Suburban Rural Teledensity RATG No. rat Radio environments Macro cell Micro cell Pico cell Hot-spot cell η 1, rat,1 (bit/s/hz/cell)

9 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (SC) service categories (SC): a combination of service type and traffic class as shown in Table 1 Service type Traffic class Conversational Streaming Interactive Background Peak bit rate Super-high multimedia SC1 SC6 SC11 SC16 30 Mbit/s to 100 Mbit/s / 1Gbit/s High multimedia SC2 SC7 SC12 SC17 < 30 Mbit/s Medium multimedia SC3 SC8 SC13 SC18 < 2 Mbit/s Low rate data and low SC4 SC9 SC14 SC19 < 144 kbit/s multimedia Very low rate data (1) SC5 SC10 SC15 SC20 < 16 kbit/s (1) This includes speech and SMS.

10 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (SC) Other parameters are needed in capacity calculations Service category SC1 SC2 SC20 Mean packet size (bit/packet) Second moment (1) of packet size (bit/packet) Allowed mean packet delay (s) Allowed blocking rate (%) (1) The second moment of a random variable is a scalar value that is related to the variance of the random variable.

11 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (SC) Traffic classes (QoS classes for IMT-2000 from the user perspective): conversational class of service (VoIP and videoconferencing); interactive class of service (data from remote equipment e.g. a server); streaming class of service (scheme of real-time streams); background class of service (end-user, typically is a computer) The main distinguishing factor between these classes is how delaysensitive the application is Based on Recommendation ITU-R M.1079 the conversational and streaming class are served with circuit switching and the background and interactive class with packet switching.

12 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (SC) Service category parameters: User density (users/km 2 ) Session arrival rate per user (sessions/(s user)) Mean service bit rate (bit/s) Mean session duration (s/session) Mobility ratio (in-building, pedestrian, vehicular). Mobility in market study Mobility in methodology mobility class Speed (km/h) mobility class Speed (km/h) Stationary 0 Stationary/pedestrian 0 < V < 4 Low 0 < V < 4 High 4 < V < 100 Low (fraction J m ) 4 < V < 50 Super-high 100 < V < 250 High (fraction 1 J m ) 50 < V J m is traffic splitting fraction for service environment m m J m

13 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (SE) service environment (SE): SE represent common service usage and volume conditions. SE is defined as a combination of service usage pattern and teledensity Service usage pattern Teledensity Dense urban Sub-urban Rural Home SE1 SE4 Office SE2 SE5 Public area SE3 SE6

14 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (SE) Possible user group and exemplary application of each SE User groups Applications SE1 Private user, business user Voice, Internet access, games, e-commerce, remote education, multimedia applications SE2 Business user, small and medium size Voice, Internet access, video conferencing, enterprise e-commerce, mobile business applications SE3 Private user, business user, public service user (e.g. bus driver, emergency service), touris sales people Voice, Internet access, videoconferencing, mobile business applications, tourist information, e-commerce SE4 Private user, business user Voice, Internet access, games, e-commerce, multimedia applications, remote education SE5 Business user, enterprise Voice, Internet access, e-commerce, video conferencing, mobile business applications SE6 Private user, farm, public service user Voice, information application Spectrum requirements shall first be calculated separately for each teledensity. Final spectrum requirements is calculated by taking maximum value among spectrum requirements for teledensity areas (dense urban, suburban and rural)

15 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (RE) Radio environment (RE): REs are defined by the cell layers in a network consisting of hierarchical cell layers, i.e. macro, micro, pico and hot-spot cells. Naturally, a trade-off has to be found between network deployment costs and the spectrum requirement. Example maximum cell area per RE(km 2 ) * RE Teledensity Dense urban Sub-urban Rural Macro cell Micro cell (1) Pico cell (1) 1.6E-3 1.6E-3 1.6E-3 Hot spot (1) 6.5E-5 6.5E-5 6.5E-5 * This example is not applicable to the scenario of large areas with low teledensity coverage. (1) It is assumed that the cell size of these environments is not teledensity dependent.

16 Definition of Some Terms Used in Report (RE) In practice the total area of a particular service environment is only covered to a certain percentage X by each radio environmen e.g. by pico cells. Example population coverage percentage of the radio deployment environments in each SE SE RE Macro cell Microcell Pico cell Hot spot SE SE SE SE SE SE

17 Relationship Between SEs, RATGs and REs SEs and REs should be separately considered in the spectrum calculation such that traffic demands are forecasted over SE only, while total spectrum requirements are calculated with different RATGs and their possible RE. Spectrum requirements are calculated within each teledensity but final spectrum requirements need to be chosen as the maximum among spectrum requirements of all teledensities. Therefore, traffic in service environments should be accumulated with their corresponding teledensity first.

18 Service environments Dense urban Home SE1 Dense urban Office SE2 Dense urban Public SE3 Suburban Home SE4 Suburban Public SE5 Rural SE6 Traffic RATG A1 B1 A2 B2 A3 B3 A4 B4 A5 B5 A6 B6 Traffic distribution among RATGs Traffic REs A1 A2 A3 RATG 1 A4 A5 A6 B1 B2 B3 RATG 2 B4 B5 B6 Traffic distribution within a RATG Traffic Aggregation of traffic over SEs in each teledensity Spectrum Spectrum requirements for a teledensity Choose maximum Choose maximum Macro cell Micro cell Pico cell Spectrum requirements of RATG 1 Spectrum requirements of RATG 2 two RATGs three radio environments M

19 Steps of Calculation Algorithm Step 1: Definition Step2: Analyze Collected Market Data Step 3: Calculate Traffic Demand Step 4: Distribute Traffic RATGs, SEs, SCs, REs M.2072, M.2243 Market attribute setting Step 8: Calculate Aggregate Spectrum Requirement Step 7: Apply Adjustment Step 6: Calculate Unadjusted Spectrum Requirement Step 5: Calculate System Capacity Step 9: Final Spectrum Requirement Area spectral efficiency Mean delay Blocking probability Mean IP packet size 2 nd moment of IP packet size

20 Classification of Input Parameters

21 Analysis of the Collected Market Data (Collection of market data) The market data was collected by answering to the questionnaires. The questionnaires included the following items in order to survey future market and application trends: services and market survey for existing mobile services; key market parameters; service and market forecast for IMT, including: service issues; market issues; preliminary traffic forecast; related information; service and market forecast for other radio systems; driving forces of the future market; and any other views on future services. The responses to the questionnaires are summarized and analyzed in Report ITU-R M.2072 (132 pages). More recent market data is provided in Report ITU-R M.2243.

22 Analysis of the Collected Market Data (Data Analysis) General process for the market data analysis Step 1: List up Applications/Services Step 2: Specify traffic attribute values of each service Step 3: Specify market attribute values of each service Step 5: Calculate market attribute values per each SC and SE Step 4: Map the services into service category per each SE M

23 Applic ations Existing applications Town monitoring systems General Process for the Market Data Analysis List up Applications/Services step 1 (Example application/service category and their traffic attributes) Services Voice (multimedia and low rate data/ conversational) Video phone (medium multimedia/ conversational) IM, (very low rate data/ background) Video mail (medium multimedia/ background) Packet Mobile broadcasting (high multimedia/ streaming) Internet access (high multimedia/) Voice (multimedia and low rate data/ conversational) Video communication (medium multimedia/conversational) Medium rate data transmission for town information monitoring (medium multimedia/interactive) Low rate data transmission for Reservation of restaurants, etc. (very low rate data/interactive) File transfer (super-high multimedia/ background) Traffic attributes Mean service bit rate 64 kbit/s 384 kbit/s 1 kbit/s 512 kbit/s 5 Mbit/s 10 Mbit/s 64 kbit/s 384 kbit/s 384 kbit/s 1 kbit/s 50 Mbit/s Average session duration The traffic attributes (step 2 of procedure) are extracted in above table last columns for: mean service bit rate and average session duration.

24 General Process for the Market Data Analysis Specify Market Attribute Values of Each Service-step 3 (Expected Response to Questionnaire on Market and Service) Applica tions Town monitorin g systems Services s: index Town information monitoring s = 1 SC n 18 SE m User density U m,s (users/km 2 ) Session arrival rate/user Q m,s (sessions/(s user)) Market attributes Mean service bit rate r s (bit/s) Average session duration μ m,s (s/session) Stationary Mobility ratio (%) MR m,s Reservation, s = 2 In order to calculate the dynamic spectrum requirement of a RATG, the market attribute values need to be provided for individual time interval t. Each service can be mapped into the table composed of service type and traffic class as shown in above Table (step 4) Low High Super-high

25 General Process for the Market Data Analysis Calculate Market Attribute Values per Each SC, SE and Time Interval-step 5 Market attribute values are provided separately for uplink and downlink. Service category SC1 Service environment SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4 SE5 SE6 U 1,1 U 2, U 6,1 Q 1,1 Q 2,1 Q 6,1 μ 1,1 μ 2,1 μ 6,1 r 1,1 r 2,1 r 6,1 SC2 MR 1,1 U 1,2 Q 1,2 μ 1,2 R 1,2 MR 2,1 MR 6, MR 1,2 SC

26 Parameters of Market Attribute Values User density (users/km 2 ) of a certain service category: U m,n and U m,s : the user density of service category n and the user density of service s inside service category n U Q Session arrival rate per user (sessions/(s user)): Qm, n = Um, n Q m,n and Q m,s : the session arrival rate per user of service category n and the session arrival rate per user of service s inside service category n Average session duration (s/session) : µ m, n = w m, sµ m, s U s n m, sqm, s wm, s = where µ m,n and µ m,s denote the average session Um, nqm, n duration of service category n and the average session duration of service s inside service category n, U m, n = Um, s s n s n m, s m, s

27 Parameters of Market Attribute Values Mean service bit rate (bit/s) of a certain service category: U r m t n = wm t sr m, sqm, sµ m, s,,,, m, s where: wm, s = s n Um, nqm, nµ m, n where r m,n and r m,s denote the service data rate of service category n and the service data rate of service s inside service category n, Mobility ratio of a certain service category : MR _ market market, m, n = wm, smr _ s n where MR_market m,n and MR_market m,s denote the mobility ratio of service category n and the mobility ratio of service s inside service category n m s

28 Parameters of Market Attribute Values The market study mobility ratios MR_market obtained above for stationary (sm), low (lm), high (hm) and super-high mobility (shm) need to be mapped into the methodology mobility ratios MR for stationary/pedestrian (sm), low (lm) and high mobility (hm). The mapping is done with J m -factors. Mobility ratio for stationary mobility is obtained from: MR_sm m,n = MR_market_sm m,n + MR_market_lm m,n Mobility ratio for low mobility is as follows: MR_lm m,n = J m MR_market_hm m,n Mobility ratio for high mobility is as follows: MR_hm m,n = (1 J m ) MR_market_hm m,n +MR_market_shm m,n

29 Distribution of Traffic Step 4 in Generic Calculation Algorithm The traffic obtained for each SE, time interval and SC will be distributed to possible RATGs and REs The following inputs are used for the traffic distribution: The traffic values by SC and SE that are obtained as the outcome of Step 3 (Table 14) SE definition matrix according to Step 1 including feasible REs and population coverage percentages for each SE (Table 9) RATG definition matrixes according to Step 1, Distribution ratios ξ m,n,rap (SC n in SE m and time interval t per cell or sector of RATG rat and RE p) among available RATGs (Table 16)

30 Calculation of Distribution Ratios The distribution ratios are determined in three phases. Phase 1 determines which combination of RATG and RE cannot support a given service category in a given SE. The corresponding distribution ratios are set to 0 while possible combinations are set to 1 (Table 15). Phase 2 distributes traffic between RATGs. The RATGs distribution ratio depends on the available RATGs in each RE and SE (Table 16). Phase 3 distributes the traffic among the radio environments based on mobility ratios and coverage percentages. Example of possible combinations of SC, SE and RE for one RATG and time interval after Phase 1 of the traffic distribution SE1 SE2 SE3 Macr Micr Hot Macr Micr Hot Macr Micr Pico Pico o o spot o o spot o o Pico SC SC SC SC SC SC Service category Hot spot

31 Calculation of Distribution Ratios- phase 2 Example of distribution ratios among available RATGs, phase 2 Available RATGs Distribution ratio (%) RATG1 RATG2 RATG3 RATG , , , , , , , 2, , 2, , 3, , 3, , 2, 3,

32 Calculation of Distribution Ratios- phase 3 Using the population coverage percentage information X hs, X pico, X micro and X macro of the hot-spo pico, micro and macro radio environmen the algorithm distributes the following traffic ratios: ξ pico&hs = min(x pico + X hs, MR_sm) ξ micro = min(x micro, (MR_sm + MR_lm) ξ pico&hs ) ξ macro = 1 ξ pico&hs ξ micro MR_sm and MR_lm are the ratios of offered traffic in the stationary and low mobility classes, respectively. The equations assume that: MR_sm + MR_lm + MR_hm = 1 Between hot-spot and pico cells the traffic is distributed according to the relation of the population coverage ratios of hot-spot and pico cells: ξ hs = ξ pico&hs X hs /(X pico + X hs ) ξ pico = ξ pico&hs X pico /(X pico + X hs )

33 Distribution of Session Arrival Rates The session arrival rate per area (sessions/(s km 2 )) of service category n and service environment m distributed to RATG rat and radio environment p in time interval P m,n,rap is calculated from the distribution ratio ξ m,n,rap, user density U m,n and session arrival rate per user Q m,n by the following equation: P m,n,rap = ξ m,n,rap U m,n Q m,n The traffic from all users in a cell needs to be accumulated. The session arrival rate/cell (sessions/(s cell)) is calculated as: = P A P m, n, ra p m, n, ra p d, p where A d,p is the cell area (km 2 ) of RATG rat in teledensity d and radio environment p, where d is uniquely determined by m

34 Calculation of offered traffic Circuit switched traffic: The offered traffic (Erlang/cell) by use of the session arrival rate m, n, from the distribution functionality and the mean session duration µ m,n : ρ = µ The aggregate values of the mean service bit rate r d,n,rap (bit/s) for teledensity d are obtained as follows: P µ r Packet-switched traffic: The offered traffic for service category n for RATG rat in radio environment p for teledensity d and different time interval t:. = P µ r d, n, ra p P m, n, ra p m, n m d r d, n, ra p = m d T d, n, ra p m, n, ra p m, n m, n m d m, n, ra p ρ d, n, ra p P ra p m, n m, n

35 Determination of the Required System Capacity step 5 of Generic Calculation Method (circuit switched traffic) The required system capacity (i.e. reservation based) service categories is determined by the number of service channels needed to achieve a specified blocking probability, and the channel data rate. Inputs are: Offered traffic in Erlangs per cell or sector ρ d,n,rap Service channel data rate r d,n,rap for service category n Maximum allowable blocking probability π n, multi-dimensional Erlang B formula implemented

36 Determination of the Required System Capacity step 5 of Generic Calculation Method (Packet-Switched Traffic) The system capacity needed to fulfil each service category s mean delay requirement is determined using a queuing model applicable for independent arrival times of packets and arbitrary distribution of packet size. In queuing theory the model is known as an M/G/1 queuing model with non-pre-emptive priorities or head-of-the-line queuing system [Klienrock, 1976]. Input parameters are: For each SC the offered base traffic per SE per cell T d,n,rap (bit/(s cell)) Mean s n (bits/packet) and second moment s n (2) (bits 2 /packet) of the IP packet size distribution of each SC n The required mean delay D n of each service category (given in Table 5) The priority ranking of all SCs n with n = 1, 2,..., N ps. It is assumed that the SC n = 1 has the highest priority, i.e. IP packets of SC n = 1 are served first. The SC n = N ps has the lowest priority. The priority ordering of the SCs is equivalent to the SC numbering.

37 Determination of the Spectrum Requirements step 6 of Generic Calculation Method (steps 1 and 2) Step 1: The capacity calculation so far has been separately for uplink and downlink. The capacity requirements for uplink and downlink are combined, separately for packet and circuit switched capacity requirements: C d,rap,cs (bit/(s cell)) = C d,rap,cs,ul + C d,rap,cs,dl C d,rap,pcs (bit/(s cell)) = C d,rap,ps,ul + C d,rap,ps,dl Step 2: The capacity requirements of circuit switched and packet switched traffic are combined, i.e.: C d,rap = C d,rap,cs + C d,rap,ps In the case of mobile multicast capacity requirements, this is calculated similarly as the sum of packet and circuit switched multicast capacity requirements.

38 Determination of the Spectrum Requirements step 6 of Generic Calculation Method (step 3) Step 3: The spectrum requirement for RATG rat in teledensity d, time interval t and radio environment p are calculated by applying the area spectral efficiency factors. The spectrum requirement is obtained from: Cd, ra p Fd, ra p = ηd, ra p where η d,rap (bit/(s Hz cell)) is the area spectral efficiency in teledensity d, RATG rat and radio environment p. In the case of mobile multicast capacity requirements, the corresponding spectrum requirement F d,rap,mm is calculated separately, using the appropriate spectral efficiency η d,rap value. This spectrum requirement is then added to the spectrum requirement of user individual communication: F d,rap = F d,rap + F d,rap,mm

39 Applying necessary adjustments step 7 of Generic Calculation Method (step 1) Spectrum requirements are aggregated over radio environments. Adjustments are made taking into account the minimum spectrum requirement for a network deploymen necessary guardbands and the impact of the number of operators. Step1: We assume the spectrum distribution among operators within one RATG is fixed. Furthermore we assume each operator has available the same share of the total spectrum. Then the unadjusted spectrum per operator is: F d,rap = F d,rap /N o where N o is the number of operators

40 Applying necessary adjustments step 7 of Generic Calculation Method (step 2) Step 2: Spectrum can in general only be used with granularity GrnSpec rap and the minimum bandwidth MinSpec rap required for being able to allocate a single carrier to each cell in a wide area network, taking into account the frequency reuse factor. The spectrum requirement needs to be adjusted accordingly: F d,rap = 0 if F d,rap =0 F d,rap = MinSpec rap if 0 < F d,rap MinSpec rap F d,rap = MinSpec rap +GrnSpec rap (F d,rap -MinSpec rap ) /GrnSpec rap if MinSpec rap < F d,rap where means rounding to the next largest integer and MinSpec rap and GrnSpec rap are obtained from Tables 10a and 10b.

41 Applying necessary adjustments step 7 of Generic Calculation Method (step 3) Step 3: For RATG1, it is assumed that pico cell and hot-spot radio environments are not spatially coexisting. Therefore, the maximum of both REs needs to be taken. The macro and micro cell REs are assumed to spatially coexist with the pico cell and hot-spot RE, respectively. Therefore, for RATG1, the spectrum requirements of macro and micro environment need to be added to the maximum of the pico and hot-spot radio environment: F d,rat = F d,ramacro + F d,ramicro + max(f d,rapico, F d,rahotspot ) For RATG2, the recent development of heterogeneous networks is leading to the direction that the different cell types are capable of being deployed on the same spectrum more efficiently than previously anticipated. Therefore, for RATG2, the spectrum requirements of maximum of macro and micro environment need to be added to the maximum of the pico and hot-spot radio environment: F d,rat = max (F d,ramacro, F d,ramicro ) + max (F d,rapico, F d,rahotspot ) Then, the total required spectrum for all operators is: F d,rat = F d,rat N o

42 Applying necessary adjustments step 7 of Generic Calculation Method (step 4) Step 4: Guardbands are considered. It is assumed that the spectral efficiency figures already take into account a guardband that is required between carriers of the same operator. This means that the spectral efficiency figures also are based on the assumption that either an adjacent carrier has no influence, or the influence is already included in the spectral efficiency figure. The guardband between operators introduces additional spectrum requirements: F d,rat = F d,rat + (N o 1) G rat where the values of guardband between operators G rat are input values given by Tables 10a and 10b.

43 Calculate aggregate spectrum requirements step 8 of Generic Calculation Method (step 1) Step 1: The time dependency of the spectrum requirement is considered. The two options below, i.e. a) and b), are to calculate the spectrum requirements without or with FSU possibility. Step 2: Teledensity environments are spatially non-overlapping areas, thus the teledensity environment having the highest spectrum demand determines the spectrum requirement for a RATG. Step 3: Where a common estimation is required for a group of countries, maximum of market study individual spectrum requirements should be taken. Step 4: Optionally, as a final step, the total required spectrum is the Step 8. a) Without FSU possibility all the RATG demands are summed: b) With FSU possibility the spectrum for FSU enabled RATGs and non-fsu enabled RATGs are added together: F = rat F rat F = F FSU + Fra nonfsu rat { FSU RATs}

44 Thank You

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