New directions for the radio spectrum: Towards a spectrum commons and shared use

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1 future models of spectrum usage Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 01 February 2011 New directions for the radio spectrum: Towards a spectrum commons and shared use Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved No reproduction without permission 1 of 23

2 Agenda Drivers for future spectrum use Questions about traditional principles of spectrum allocation Next steps - towards better forms of sharing Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 2 of 23

3 Global Mobile future spectrum users - mobile explosion 8 7 Expected 7 Bn users 2017 (103% world pop) Billions of mobile services users worldwide Bn users, Bn users, July 2010 (74% world pop.) 4Bn users, Jan 2009 (60 % world pop.) 800K users, 2000 Expected 6 Bn users June 2012 (89% world pop.) NICs middle classes Estimated SCF Associates Ltd Saturation is set by affordable price for the majority of users numbers which may reach 105% of the global population of over 8.2Bn by 2030 (US Census Bureau, 2005) if world usage goes towards average levels of saturation today: median between 130% W. Europe and 50% Africa (source: GSMA, June 2010) With globalisation, OECD cost levels of services and handsets will slowly be rebalanced, being set by average world prices Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 3 of 23

4 Socio-economics, not technology, is driving spectrum demand, led by mobile and its advance into CONSUMER broadband Supply side: the computer and consumer electronics industry model Demand side: Changes in income levels and global distribution of wealth Mobile take-up expands further, so more users New Industry model requires more spectrum to sell:- Content Internet service New capacity demands with convergence of data and voice for mobile broadband:- Internet AV media Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 4 of 23

BUT is this crowded spectrum all a myth? -so somebody can make a fortune? RURAL On average, only slightly more than 5% of the USA radio spectrum is used nationally at any given time. McHenry, Mark A.

6 BUT is this crowded spectrum all a myth? -so somebody can make a fortune? RURAL On average, only slightly more than 5% of the USA radio spectrum is used nationally at any given time. McHenry, Mark A., NSF Spectrum Occupancy Measurements Project Summary, 15 Aug. 2005, Vienna,Va. USA, Shared Spectrum Company. HI use SUBURBAN LOW use Is today s spectrum scarcity very much an artificial product of archaic public policies? DENSE URBAN Spectrum utilisation studies undertaken by UK s Ofcom have investigated the degree of usage of the radio spectrum, indicating many areas of the radio spectrum are not fully utilised, also the case in the USA. Source: OFCOM 2010 and Dettmer R, Up the revolution, IEE Review, May 2005, p. 44 Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 6 of 23

3 basic economic models of spectrum allocation Major Spectrum Management Models Internet & computer industry Entrepreneurs/ Engineers Regulators/ Military Command & Control (a.k.a. GOSPLAN licensing or managed) - Govt.

7 3 basic economic models of spectrum allocation Major Spectrum Management Models Internet & computer industry Entrepreneurs/ Engineers Regulators/ Military Command & Control (a.k.a. GOSPLAN licensing or managed) - Govt. knows best - First come, first served - Beauty Contests - Low flexibility - Pro Government (and its friends) Conserve State control Maximise Value Economists & MNOs Property Rights License (a.k.a. the MARKET ) - Market knows best - Auctions/2ndary trading - Medium flexibility - Pro Big Business Open but avoid Interference THE COMMONS (a.k.a. Licence-exempt ) Nobody knows best - No Legal Protection - Sharing is a right - Technical Protection - High flexibility - Pro- Innovation - Optimists Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 7 of 23 SCF

8 Some key approaches Hide signal such that it does not interfere Detect permanent or transient gaps that avoid interference (frequency, time) when/if no other user (Cognitive Radio) Place in a context where cannot interfere (space, direction, frequency, ) Accept (some) interference and compensate PLUS :- Collective use efficient sharing tween licensed and unlicensed Co-operative/collaborative use (eg mesh) - user collaboration co-ordinates other (unlicensed) users Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 8 of 23

Technologies that can change how spectrum may be allocated Software Defined Radio (SDR) Cognitive radio (CR) and the white space / borrowing opportunity Replace raw bandwidth with computing power

9 Technologies that can change how spectrum may be allocated Software Defined Radio (SDR) Cognitive radio (CR) and the white space / borrowing opportunity Replace raw bandwidth with computing power Sharing concepts - direct spread spectrum /UWB Directional multiplexing using multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) systems, phased arrays Mesh and ad hoc networks Compression: coding of signals in less bandwidth Bit rate encoding: number of bits per Hertz of bandwidth transmitted. Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 9 of 23

And now we have far more TV distribution platforms than just digital or analogue terrestrial broadcast that old Negroponte Switch - Digital switched star CATV Web TV, IPTV over

10 And now we have far more TV distribution platforms than just digital or analogue terrestrial broadcast that old Negroponte Switch - Digital switched star CATV Web TV, IPTV over Broadband NGN fibre and xdsl for Internet downloads Digital & analogue Satellite TV Wireless Broadband TV Mobile TV Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 10 of 23

11 Future directions - the essential goal To introduce enhanced forms of spectrum usage:- Introduce practical alternatives to traditional spectrum usage Avoid conflict over signal interference Form what may become an effective commons for each user The next commons somewhere here? FCC Whitespace 2010 One licence- exempt band, 2.4Ghz Diverse Broadcast Media Mobile UHF Other Mobile Other 20 Hz 80MHz 800 MHz Ghz 100 GHz UHF Longer ranges (>10km) Lower cost networking = range + ferro-concrete & rain penetration Shorter ranges (<1 km) Faster bit rates Less bits/hz needed (in theory) Not to scale Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 11 of 23

12 A view of the future One example of allocation trajectory across the EU MS - which might seem radical Projections of percentages of each type of spectrum allocation in the EU 100 Managed Command & Control 90 Market-based: auctions & 2ndary trading % of useable radio spectrum Licence exempt: commons, white spaces, etc SCF Associates Ltd Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 12 of 23 SCF

6% Command & control 95.7% Licence exempt 6.

13 These changes might even seem conservative compared to advances in the EU Member States leading change eg the UK 2000 Licence exempt 4.3% 2010 Command & control 21.6% Command & control 95.7% Licence exempt 6.9% Source OFCOM UK, website, Oct 2010 Market Mechanisms 71.5% Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 13 of 23

14 The commons as an economic catalyst Innovation in services and products New employment Build intellectual capital Broadband infrastructure at lower cost Close digital divide Acceleration of a balanced economy Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved 14 of 23

15 future models of spectrum usage Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 01 February 2011 New directions for the radio spectrum: Towards a spectrum commons and shared use Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd 2011 all rights reserved No reproduction without permission 15 of 23

Broadband Wireless Access: Radio Spectrum Policy aspects

Broadband Wireless Access: Radio Spectrum Policy aspects Ruprecht Niepold, Slide 1 Overview of presentation Spectrum regulation in the EU Radio spectrum policy in context Radio spectrum policy reform Drivers