IOC CONCLAVE 2018 LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR INDIAN POLYESTER DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRY. Surat, 2 Sep Anant Kishore. Presented by:
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1 IOC CONCLAVE 2018 LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR INDIAN POLYESTER DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRY Surat, 2 Sep 2018 Presented by: Anant Kishore
2 Preface Indian Polyester Long Term Outlook THIS PAPER WILL PRESENT LONG TERM INDIAN POLYESTER SCENARIO, GROWTH, DEMAND / SUPPLY SITUATION AND DOWNSTREAM DEMAND & SUPPLY, NEW PRODUCTS & GROWTH AREAS
3 PRESENTATION WILL COVER POLYESTER FILAMENT YARN POLYESTER DRAW TEXTURED YARNS POLYESTER STAPLE FIBRE RECYCLED POLYESTER STAPLE FIBRE
4 POLYESTER FILAMENT YARN INDIA IS GROWING AT ROBUST 8-9% CURRENT PFY CAP AROUND 3.5 MT APP 20% CAP UNUTILISED EXPECTED GRWOTH 6% NEXT DECADE EXPECTED 4 MT BY 2020 & 5.5 MT BY 2025 BY 2025 NEED ADDLN 2 MT PFY APP 0.5 MT PROJECTS IN PIPELINE ADDLN 1.5 MT PFY MORE REQD BY 2025
5 PFY CONTINUED CURRENTLY 30 PLAYERS ONLY FEW PLAYERS IN TOP LIST WITH 0.5 MT CAP MIN CAP OUTLOOK 0.5 MT /YR SMALL PLAYERS CANNOT SURVIVE ONLY SPECIALTY PRODUCTS ON SMALLER LINES Fig. in $ / Ton GROWTH FOR SEMIDULL FILAMENT GROWTH FOR SPECIALITY FILAMENT PRODUCTS BRIGHT, SHE,DOPE DYED, AIR TEX,MULTI FIL HIGH COUNT, MICRO, PROFILE ORIENTED SHT, TnT, SLUB,YOLK,CD,AND MANY MORE SPECIALITY FILAMENT APP 15-20% OF TOTAL DEMAND TO CONTINUE
6 POLYESTER PARTIALLY ORIENTED YARNS POY POLYESTER DRAW TEXTURED YARNS DTY POLYESTER FULLY DRAWN YARNS FDY
7 POLYESTER PARTIALLY ORIENTED YARN POY IS MEDIUM TERM PRODUCT OF PFY CANNOT BE USED IN WEAVING OR KNITTING UNLESS FULLY DRAWN OR DRW TEXTURED MAJOR USE APP 80% IN DTY PRODUCTS OTHER END USE FOR FLAT YARNS, WARP KNITTING
8 DRAW TEXTURED YARNS (DTY) CURRENTLY APP 3000 MCS INSTALLED ONLY 60-70% OPERATING CURRENT INSTALLED CAP 3 MT OPERATIVE APP 2 MT DEMAND GROWTH 11-12% FORCAST DEMAND 8-9% IN NEXT DECADE MAJOR PALYERS WITH MORE THAN 100 MCS CONVERTING 80-90% OF POY MAJOR DEMAND IN SAREES, DRESS MATERIALS, SPORTS WEAR GROWTH TO CONTINUE IN SPECIALITY PRODUCTS MANUAL MCS ALMOST 90% NEXT DECADE MAY SEE AUTOMATIC DOFFING MCS MCS WITH SPECIALITY ATTACHMENTS
9 POLYESTER FULLY DRAWN YARNS FDY CURRENTLY 20 PLYERS IN OPERATION WITH MORE THAN 1.5 MT CAPACITY COMBINED DEMAND GROWTH INITIALY % LAST DECADE NEXT DECADE GOWTH WILL SETTLE AT 8-9% FDY PROCESS IS SINGLE STEP COST EFFECTIVE PROCESS MORE & MORE MCS UNDER INSTALLATION EXPECTED DEMAND 2 MT BY 2020 & 3 MT BY 2025
10 Polyester Production & Growth Forecast
11 India Polyester Production Filament Capacity / Production 6,000 5,000 4,000 Fig. in 000 Tons Polyester Filament growth is higher than PSF Staple Capacity / Production Fig. in 000 Tons 3,000 2,000 1, PET resin Capacity / Production Fig. in 000 Tons Capacity Production Addln 0.5 MT Polyester cap is in pipeline Capacity Production PSF Virgin + Recyclate capacity Virgin Recyclate Total Industry utilization of Filament & Fiber is % Recycled fiber is 30% of total fiber capacity. Currently it is 0.35 million tons whereas virgin fiber is 1.2 million tons.
12 India Polyester Production Growth Forecast Fig. in 000 Tons Staple 1,230 1,322 1, Filament 2,890 3,105 3,338 3, Total 4,120 4,430 4,785 5,257 5,690 Pet Resin ,113 1,280 1,408 Fig. in % Staple Filament PET resin
13 China vs India ( Polyester Production ) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Filament Capacity / Production 0 Fig. in 000 Tons PET resin Capacity / Production Fig. in 000 Tons Capacity Production Capacity Production 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Staple Capacity / Production 0 Fig. in 000 Tons Capacity Production Filament Staple Fiber PET India China India China India China
14 China vs India ( GDP, GDP growth rate, per capita consumption ) GDP ( Nominal and PPP ) GDP growth Rate Per capita consumption (Kgs) Region Cotton Polyester World China India
15 POLYESTER STAPLE FIBRE
16 POLYESTER STAPLE FIBRE CURRENTLY 6 PLAYERS IN OPERATION COMBINED INSTALLED CAP 1.28 M TONS ONE MORE PLAYER EXPECTED TO ADD BY OCT 18 TOTAL CAP IN 2019 EXPECTED 1.46 MT AVERAGE PLANT UTILIZATION 75% CURRENT DEMAND APP 1.1 MT CAGR 6-7% FOR NEXT 5 YRS DEMAND EXPECTED TO GO UP TO 2 MT BY 2025 AS MORE SPINNING USAGE,SPECIALITY FIBRES & INCREASED USAGE FOR TEXTILES SPECIALITY FIBRES GROWTH 15%
17 RECYCLED POLYESTER STAPLE FIBRE
18 RECYCLED POLYESTER STAPLE FIBRE MORE THAN 30 PLAYERS & ADDING CAPACITY RANGING TPD OVERALL INSTALLED CAPACITY APP 0.4 MT CAP UTILISATION 70% DEMAND GROWTH OF HOLLOW FIBRES 15-18% OTHER DYED & SD FIBRES 10% OVERALL GROWTH 12% 100% RECYCLE OF INHOUSE & PET FLAKE WASTE ECO FRIENDLY PROCESS RECYCLED FIBRE PLANT MUST FOR A BIG PLAYER
19 POLYESTER SPECIALITY FIBRES GROWTH 15-20% DOPE DYED BLACK FIBRE COLORED MELT DYED FIBRES BRIGHT HIGH TENACITY FIBRE BRIGHT ROUND X SECTION FIBRE BRIGHT TRILOBAL FIBRE SHT FIBRE OPW / OB FIBRE HOLLOW FIBRE HOLLOW CONJUGATE FIBRE HOLLOW SOLID & SILICONISED FIBRE CURRENT DEMNAD AT 300,000 TONS EXPECTED TO TOUCH 1 MT BY 2025
20 SUMMARY
21 SUMMARY BY 2025 PER CAPITA POLYESTER CONSUMPTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE 6-7 Kg THIS WOULD INCLUDE ADDITIONAL 1.5 MT PFY 1 MT PSF, 0.5 MT RPSF 1 MT DTY 2 BIG NEW PLANTS PLUS ADDITIONAL CAP NEEDED OLDER PLANTS WILL CLOSE GRADUALLY GROWTH TO SPUR IN SPECIALITY FIBRES RPSF, TECHNICAL YARNS & NON APPAREL HOME TEXTILES HYGEINE FIBRES & HIGH PERFORMANCE FIBRES MORE DEMAND IN DENIM, SPANDEX, SPORTS WEAR EASY WEAR FABRICS SAREES DRESS MATERIALS & USAGE OF FINE POLYESTER FABRICS
22
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