FIND THE WAY OUT OF MAZE

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 2015 FIND THE WAY OUT OF MAZE China Economy and Industry Outlook Paul Pang Vice President IHS Chemical ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

2 Agenda China Economy Sector Review Special Topics. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2

3 Chinese GDP growth is slowing, but not collapsing Real GDP and industrial production Percent change Real GDP Industrial production 3

4 Much of the post-2012 slowdown is concentrated in industry and construction Chinese economic growth by sector, non-cumulative Contribution to real GDP growth, percentage points Services Industry and construction Agriculture 4

5 Heavy industrial central China grow slower than more developed eastern regions Real GDP growth by region, Q Chongqing Municipality Guizhou Province Tibet Autonomous Region Western Area Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Gansu Province Yunnan Province Sichuan Province Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Qinghai Province Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Shaanxi Province Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Jiangxi Province Hubei Province Anhui Province Hunan Province Henan Province Central Area Jilin Province Heilongjiang Province Shanxi Province Tianjin Municipality Fujian Province Jiangsu Province Zhejiang Province Shandong Province Guangdong Province Hainan Province Eastern Area Shanghai Municipality Beijing Municipality Hebei Province Liaoning Province West Central East

6 Despite economic success, great wealth disparity persist GDP Per Cap in 1,000 US$ in 2014 < > 15 6

7 Agenda China Economy Sector Review. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 7

8 Investment growth moderate across most sectors Completed fixed-asset investment growth by sector Percent change year ago Agriculture Industry and construction Services 8

9 Light manufacturing investment prove more resilient than in mining or heavy manufacturing Industrial FAI growth by sub-sector, cumulative Percent change year ago Mining Heavy manufacturing Light manufacturing Utilities 9

10 Light manufacturing and utilities profits continue to expand on lower inputs from upstream sectors Industrial profit growth by sub-sector Percent change year ago Mining Heavy manufacturing Light manufacturing Utilities 10

11 Chinese trade growth remains restrained Merchandise trade growth Percent change year ago Trade Balance (USD billions) Trade balance (RHS) Exports Imports 11

12 China consolidated ( onshored ) its manufacturing supply chains considerably over the past decade Processing trade as a share of Chinese merchandise trade, percent Exports Imports 12

13 Chinese manufacturing Industry remain competitive Headwind Slow demand growth Unfair competition Escalating labor costs High land cost, utility, tax, etc Lack of innovation Opportunity Favorable policy Open market Increasing Labor efficiency Strong vertical/horizontal integration Improving IP protection

14 Agenda China Economy Sector Review Special Topics. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 14

15 Chinese yuan has risen sharply against most currencies Chinese Yuan against all trade partner currencies 2010=100 Real effective exchange rate

16 The Chinese yuan devaluation by government or by market forces? On August 11, China's central bank announced a new daily parity rate scheme for the Chinese yuan. Previously, the central parity rate was set using an undisclosed formula. Thus, the new regime is more transparent and more market based. The adjustment is a step in exchange-rate liberalization. The adjusted exchange-rate system allows increased market influence and should lead to more volatility in yuan s daily movement. Devaluation will have limited help to export, but will likely dampen import. 16

17 Local debt grew fast China's local debt burden is rising, and topped 35% of GDP in 2014 Debt (Trillion RMB) 25 Share of Debt 40% % 20% 10% Jun % Local government debt balance Share of local debt in GDP (RHS) 17

18 Local government debt overview Local government debt grew much faster than nominal GDP since the 2012 slowdown, but is expected to decelerate from The central government plans to resolve the local government debt crisis by: Restructuring debt from short-term, high-interest loans to long-term, low-interest bonds. Encourage local governments to utilise some of the CNY23 trillion in idle funds for interest payments. Reform state-owned enterprises. Discourage future debt accumulation via a revised budget law. 18

19 Stock market crash after an entirely sentiments-driven rally, but linkages to other sectors are weak Chinese stock exchange composite indices Index (April 1991 = 100) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Shanghai Shenzhen 19

20 Volatility in stock market has limited impact to really economy The recent volatility in stock market, although worrisome, is having limited impact on consumer spending or business investment. Its connections to the rest of the economy are significantly weaker than elsewhere in the world. While the impact of the stock market crash will be dramatic on headline GDP, other sectors of the economy are far less likely to slow so dramatically. 20

21 Conclusion Economic growth is slowing down across the board. Services sectors continue to gain share in the economy. Vast excess industrial capacity, financed by an explosion of debt, is the biggest risk. Contrary to most headlines in the media, China s economy shows no signs of imminent collapse. Chinese growth is likely to moderate considerably in the near term, but remain strong in the long term.. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 21

22 About Speaker Paul Pang Vice President IHS Chemical Greater China (Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan) Phone: Paul has acquired more than 27 years of experience in the chemical industry in various areas, including technology, operation, process engineering, business planning and consultancy. Paul currently serves as vice president with IHS covering Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Prior to this role, Paul served as Managing Director of CMAI China. He joined CMAI in Singapore in April of Before joining CMAI, he worked in various job functions and locations with ExxonMobil Chemicals. While he was with ExxonMobil Chemicals, he spent most of his time in Singapore and Houston, TX working in operation, technology, and business planning. Before moving to overseas, Paul worked for SINOPEC as a Research and Technical Support Engineer in Beijing, China, spending the bulk of his time in aromatic technology development. Paul graduated from South China University of Technology with a Bachelor of Chemical Engineering degree in He received his Master degree in Chemical Engineering at National University of Singapore in He also received his Master of Business Administration from University of Houston in