Barrick Gold versus Newmont: Comparing Miners in 2018 and
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1 Barrick Gold versus Newmont: Comparing Miners in 2018 and Beyond By Annie Gilroy Apr 05, :15 PM Barrick Gold versus Newmont: Comparing Miners in 2018 and Beyond Newmont Mining overtakes Barrick Gold in market cap After more than doubling in 2016, Barrick Gold s (ABX) stock price tumbled ~12.0% in 2017 and another 18.0% in 1Q18. Newmont Mining s (NEM) stock price, on the other hand, gained 84.8% in 2016, 8.3% in 2017, and another 2.4% in the first quarter of ABX s mine issues led its stock price to fall since April 2017, when Newmont Mining started gaining over Barrick Gold in terms of market capitalization. In September 2017, Newmont Mining finally overtook Barrick Gold as the gold miner with the highest market capitalization. While Newmont Mining has overtaken Barrick Gold in market cap, Barrick Gold still leads the way as far as annual production is concerned. As we ll see later in this series, this scenario could change. Year-to-date performance
2 Newmont Mining s (NEM) operating performance has been strong year-to-date (or YTD), and its stock price gained 2.2% until April 4, This gain is significant as the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has lost 8.0% in the same timeframe, while the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has returned just 1.0%. Barrick Gold, on the other hand, has lost 17.6% during the same timeframe. Along with its 2017 results, Barrick Gold s production and cost guidance for 2018 and beyond has been weaker than expected. This trend has led to its relative underperformance. Senior and intermediate miners Kinross Gold (KGC), Yamana Gold (AUY), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) also gave YTD returns of -12.1%, -19.5%, and -10.8%, respectively. Series overview In this series, we ll compare Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold on various parameters including their strategies, production growth, cost profile, and balance sheet strength. We ll also examine their reserve growth, analyst sentiment, and relative valuation. We ll analyze the key differences between the companies and how their stock prices could progress going forward based on their fundamental attributes. Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold: Strategies that Drive Returns Barrick Gold versus Newmont Mining We saw in the previous part of this series that the price performances of Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) have varied significantly in the past few years and year-to-date. While the price of precious metals impacts both miners, the strategies followed by both companies are driving this divergence. In this article, we ll highlight the key differences between the strategies being followed by their current management.
3 Growth versus margins While Newmont Mining has been determined to drive volumes, Barrick Gold s approach has been to focus on margins rather than ounces. During its recent investor day address, Barrick Gold s management noted that the company doesn t plan to grow just for the sake of growth. On the other hand, Newmont Mining (NEM) appears to have a solid plan of adding ounces to its pipeline in the short term, medium term, and long term. Driving debt reduction While both companies have significantly slashed their respective debt levels and identify reducing debt one of their top priorities, there might be some difference in the strategies followed by these companies to pay down debt. Newmont Mining s C EO, Gary J. Goldberg, isn t prioritizing paying debt down early. However, Barrick Gold is making every effort to reduce debt through cash flow from operations and cash on hand, as well as potentially paying down debt through further portfolio optimization. Dividends Newmont Mining s (NEM) policy of determining dividends also differs from Barrick Gold s policy. In 4Q16, Newmont Mining s management revised its gold-linked dividend policy, which was expected to potentially double payout levels. Following its new policy, Newmont Mining declared dividends of $0.14 per share for 4Q17, which is 87.0% higher than in 3Q17 and is nearly triple the level reported in 4Q16. The company is viewing increasing dividends as a way to attract investors away from gold-linked ETFs (GLD)(IAU).
4 On the other hand, Barrick Gold (ABX) is focusing on reducing debt rather than increasing dividends as a means to attract investors. Kinross Gold (KGC), Goldcorp (GG), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) also have policies similar to Barrick Gold s policies with respect to dividends. Barrick Gold versus Newmont Mining: A Look at Reserve Growth Reserve replacement Gold miners (GDX)(GDXJ) must compensate for every ounce they remove from the ground. While mines have finite lives, the companies operating them don t. As a result, it s important to look at how miners are trying to replace and grow their reserves. Although Barrick Gold (ABX) had higher reserves compared to Newmont Mining (NEM), that changed in At the end of that year, Barrick Gold reported mineral reserves of 64.5 million ounces, a decline of 25% year-over-year (or YoY). In comparison, Newmont Mining s reserves came in at 68.5 million ounces for 2017, unchanged from 2016 due to additions and revisions fully replacing the depletion. Drivers for reserve growth The major drivers behind the decline in Barrick Gold s (ABX) reserves were the divestment of ~9.2 million ounces associated with Veladero and C erro C asale as well as the reclassification of ~14.0 million ounces of P ascua-lama reserves to resources. Newmont Mining replaced its reserve depletion for the first time since It reported the addition of 6.4 million ounces of gold reserves during the year, of which 4.4 million ounces were added through exploration and 2.0 million ounces were added through revisions and acquisitions. Both companies use the same assumption of a gold price of $1,200 per ounce for reserves estimation.
5 Reserve grade The average grade for Barrick Gold s reserves improved 17.0% from ~1.3 grams per ton to ~1.6 grams per ton. The company possesses the highest grades in the industry. Among its closest peers, Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Newcrest Mining have lower grades than Barrick. Newmont Mining s reserve grade declined 5.0% to ~1.1 grams per ton, compared to 1.2 grams per ton in Could Newmont Mining Overtake Barrick Gold in Production? Barrick Gold is still ahead in production As of the last report, Barrick Gold (ABX) is still ahead of Newmont Mining (NEM) with respect to annual production. Barrick Gold produced 5.32 million ounces of gold in 2017 while Newmont Mining produced 5.30 million ounces. However, Barrick Gold may not be able to sustain this lead for long. It has guided for production of 4.5 million 5.0 million ounces of gold in This guidance implies a decline of ~11.0% compared to the actual production in 2017, which was measured at the midpoint. Newmont Mining is guiding for production of 4.9 million 5.4 million ounces of gold in 2018 and Newmont Mining could overtake Barrick Gold Barrick Gold reduced its guidance for 2018 and also cut its long-term production guidance. The miner is currently guiding for 4.2 million 4.6 million ounces of production for 2019, compared to its previous guidance of 4.6 million 5.1 million ounces.
6 Newmont Mining expects its longer-term production to remain stable, reaching 4.6 million 5.1 million ounces per year through This outlook excludes development projects that have yet to be approved, which could mean further upside. It appears likely that Newmont could overtake Barrick as far as annual production and production growth are concerned. Growth opportunities Barrick Gold has outlined its organic investments that could drive long-term value for the company. It expects four feasibility-level projects to contribute more than 1.0 million ounces of annual production. The initial ounces from these projects are expected by Newmont Mining, on the other hand, has a strong project pipeline underpinning its production growth in the medium term and long term. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Goldcorp (GG) have steadily increased their production profiles due to their strong project pipelines. The upside to Kinross Gold s (KGC) production growth lies in the Tasiast P hase-i and Tasiast P hase-ii expansion. Can Newmont Mining Match Barrick Gold s Low Costs? Barrick Gold: Low-cost producer Barrick Gold (ABX) is among the lowest-cost producers in the industry. However, its unit costs have started creeping up. Barrick Gold reported AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of $ per ounce, an increase of 3.0% year-over-year (or YoY) in Newmont Mining (NEM) reported AISC of $ per ounce, which is 1.0% higher than in Barrick Gold is still the lowest-cost senior gold producer, with costs lower than major peers (RING) Newmont Mining (NEM), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), and Kinross Gold (KGC).
7 Progression of cost profiles Barrick Gold increased its AISC guidance for 2018 to $ $ per ounce. A year earlier, the company expected these costs to be $ $ per ounce. Newmont Mining also increased its cost guidance for 2018 to $ $1, per ounce from $ $1,000 per ounce in The guidance for 2018 is 7.7% higher at the midpoint than the actual AISC in NEM sees its costs coming down again in 2019 as it brings its new low-cost mine, Subika Underground, online. Difference to persist Newmont Mining expects its newest projects to add production at AISC of just $ per ounce for the first five years. This new production is expected to replace the maturing production and add additional low-cost production, which could help the company s overall cost profile. While Newmont Mining s unit cost profile is expected to decline over the coming years while Barrick Gold s unit cost profile might creep up. Barrick Gold is still expected to be a lower-cost producer than Newmont Mining for the foreseeable future. Comparing the Debt Metrics of ABX and NEM Highly leveraged miners Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX) are among the miners that mistimed their acquisitions to just before precious metal prices (GLD)(SLV) spiraled down. These acquisitions were mostly funded by debt, and large portions were subsequently written off. This led to the accumulation of excessive debt without any proportionate increase of earnings capacity. These companies are currently focusing on paying off their debts.
8 However, miners such as Goldcorp (GG) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) resisted paying high prices for assets at or near the peak of the cycle. Focus on reducing financial leverage Newmont Mining has reduced its net debt by 83.0% since Newmont Mining s net debt decreased to $0.8 billion at the end of 2017, compared to $1.9 billion at the end of NEM s net-debt-to-adjusted EBITDA 1 was 0.3x at the end of 4Q17, compared with 0.7x at the end of 1Q17 and 1.3x at the end of This trend is due to the improvement in EBITDA as well as the reduction in net debt. Barrick Gold has reduced its net debt by 44.0% in the last two years to $4.1 billion at the end of In 2017, Barrick Gold reduced its total debt by $1.51 billion (or 19%), which exceeded its targeted reduction of $1.45 billion. The company is aiming to reduce its debt to $5.0 billion by the end of 2018 from its current level of $6.4 billion. Focus on liquidity At the end of 2017, Barrick Gold had a cash balance of ~$2.2 billion. It also had an ~$4.0 billion credit facility, which remains fully undrawn. Moreover, it has less than $100.0 million in debt due before More than 75.0% of Barrick Gold s outstanding debt doesn t mature until 2032, which gives the company ample flexibility to advance its project pipeline without worrying about volatility in gold prices (GLD). Newmont Mining had total liquidity of $6.2 billion at the end of 4Q17, compared to $5.9 billion at the end of 3Q17. Its liquidity includes ~$3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and it has one of the best credit ratings in the mining sector. 1. earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization Why Analyst Sentiment Is Diverging for ABX and NEM Analysts ratings for ABX and NEM In this article, we ll discuss analysts ratings and recommendations for Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM). Of the 24 analysts covering Barrick Gold, 25.0% recommended a buy for the stock, the lowest percentage of buy recommendations among the senior miner stocks (GDX). Newmont Mining has buy ratings from 56.0% of the 18 analysts covering it.
9 Barrick Gold s buy ratings have fallen consistently over the last year. One year ago, 48.0% of analysts recommended a buy. This rating disappointed investors in 2017, mainly due to issues at Barrick Gold s Tanzanian and Veladero mines. In contrast, Goldcorp (GG), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Newmont Mining (NEM) have been finding favor among analysts due to their increasingly attractive growth prospects. Barrick Gold s target price of $16.30 implies an upside of 33.0% based on its current market price. NEM s target price implies an upside of 17.0% based on its current market price of $ RBC: Buy ABX, sell NEM On March 12, 2018, Royal Bank of C anada upgraded ABX from sector perform to outperform and reduced its target price from $17.00 to $ The upgrade was primarily based on the analyst s belief that the stock is oversold. The analyst believes that ABX s declining production profile and cost guidance have already been priced into its stock price. In the same report, RBC downgraded Newmont Mining to underperform from sector perform and cut NEM s stock target price by $1.00 to $ While RBC upgraded Barrick Gold due to its attractive valuation, it cut Newmont Mining for the same reason. Royal Bank of C anada believes that while NEM has executed its business plan well, it might be time to take profits in the stock after its recent rally. Rating changes In 2018, Barrick Gold (ABX) has seen two downgrades and one upgrade while Newmont Mining has seen two downgrades. Newmont Mining s downgrades are primarily due to analysts concerns regarding its richer valuation.
10 In the final part of this series, we ll look at the forward valuation for these two stocks. We ll also examine the positive and negative catalysts, which could impact these valuations going forward. The Valuation Gap between Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining Relative valuation In this final article of the series, let s look at the respective relative valuations for Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM). This information could help investors gauge the relative attractiveness of each stock in relation to their current prices and prospects. Newmont Mining s higher valuation Newmont is currently trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA 1 multiple of 8.5x. The company has seen significant improvement in this multiple compared to the multiples of its peers. This improvement most likely resulted from its relatively strong operational performance in 2017 and in 2018 year-to-date. NEM is also trading at a 13.7% premium to its trailing-five-year average multiple and at a 27.5% premium to the senior gold miners (GDX) peer average. Among the senior miners, including Kinross Gold (KGC) and Goldcorp (GG) are trading at forward multiples of 4.6x and 7.8x, respectively. Barrick Gold s lower multiple Barrick Gold s (ABX) higher financial leverage is still a concern for investors, and the recent issues at its Tanzanian mines have added to the pressure. ABX is trading at a forward multiple of 5.6x, which reflects a discount of 15.3% to its peers and 14.4% to its average trailing-five-year multiple.
11 Analysts have pared back their estimates for the company. Barrick Gold has a lower multiple despite its higher one-year forward EBITDA margin of 46.4%, compared to 35.5% for Newmont Mining. Barrick Gold s lower costs are responsible for this higher margin. Despite this scenario, analysts seem to be favoring Newmont Mining due to its robust project pipeline, well-defined growth path, and more effective debt reduction management. Barrick Gold s valuation, on the other hand, is suffering due to its mine-specific issues and its less-than-robust production growth pipeline. 1. enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization
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