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1 VC Outlook 2009: Looking Down the Money Trail Steve Bengston PricewaterhouseCoopers/ National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree Report
2 MoneyTree Total Investments: Q ($ in billions) $30.0 $25.0 $28.3 $28.1 $26.4 $20.0 $22.1 Q1 $15.0 $10.0 $12.8 $11.4 Q2 Q3 Q4 $5.0 $8.3 $8.1 $6.9 $6.0 $4.6 $4.5 $4.3 $5.0 $4.9 $5.6 $5.3 $6.3 $5.0 $5.9 $5.1 $6.4 $5.9 $5.8 $6.4 $7.1 $6.7 $6.4 $7.6 $7.4 $7.8 $8.1 $7.8 $7.7 $7.1 $ # of Deals Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Q4 980 Q1 839 Q2 853 Q3 690 Q4 719 Q1 700 Q2 740 Q3 715 Q4 785 Q1 713 Q2 846 Q3 691 Q4 840 Q1 731 Q2 825 Q3 788 Q4 810 Q1 873 Q2 948 Q3 904 Q4 936 Q1 863 Q Q3 983 Q Q1 990 Q Q3 907 Slide 2
3 MoneyTree Total Investments: 1980 YTD ($ in billions) Annual Venture Capital Investments 1980 to YTD $0.6 $1.2 $1.6 $3.0 $3.0 $2.8 $3.0 $3.3 $3.3 $3.3 $2.8 $2.2 $3.5 $3.7 $4.1 $8.0 $11.3 $14.9 $21.1 $54.0 $40.6 $22.0 $19.8 $22.5 $23.1 $26.7 $30.8 $22.6 $105.0 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ YTD 2008 Slide 3
4 NIIHA U KAUAI O AHU MOLOKAI LANAI KAHOOLA WE MA UI HA W AII Investments by Region: ($ in millions) Sacramento/N. CA $20.6 M 6 Deals Silicon Valley $2,773-39% 292 Deals LA/Orange County $573-8% 54 Deals San Diego $178-2% 22 Deals AK/HI/PR $12.0 M 1 Deal Northwest $295 M-4% 44 Deals Southwest $59.2 M 17 Deals Colorado $196.0 M 21 Deals North Central $235.2 M 19 Deals Texas $276 M-4% 38 Deals South Central $7.5 M 9 Deals Midwest $395 M-6% 60 Deals Southeast $250.1 M 51 Deals Upstate NY $31.9 M 5 Deals DC/Metroplex $180.6 M 44 Deals New England $834 M-12% 117 Deals NY Metro $546 M-8% 71 Deals Philadelphia Metro $268 M-4% 36 Deals Total Investments - $7,131.3 million in 907 deals Slide 4
5 Investments by Region: ($ in millions) Silicon Valley $2,773.4 New England $834.1 LA/Orange County NY Metro $572.5 $546.2 Region Silicon Valley # of Deals 292 % Change $ from Q % Midwest $395.1 New England % Northwest Texas Philadelphia Metro $294.9 $275.5 $268.1 LA/Orange County NY Metro Midwest Northwest % 35.97% 0.20% % Southeast North Central $250.1 $235.2 Texas Philadelphia Metro Southeast % 25.15% % Colorado DC/Metroplex San Diego $196.0 $180.6 $178.4 North Central Colorado DC/Metroplex San Diego % 6.69% % % Southwest Upstate NY $59.2 $31.9 Southwest Upstate NY Sacramento/N.Cal % 76.15% % Sacramento/N.Cal AK/HI/PR South Central $20.6 $12.0 $7.5 AK/HI/PR South Central Total % % -6.96% $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Total: $7,131.3 million in 907 deals Slide 5
6 Investments by Industry: ($ in millions) Biotechnology $1,349.8 Software $1,342.9 Industrial/Energy $1,191.5 Medical Devices and Equipment Media and Entertainment $409.2 $896.4 Industry Biotechnology # of Deals 114 % Change $ from Q % IT Services Semiconductors $402.7 $395.9 Software Industrial/Energy Medical Devices and Equipment % 3.32% -3.57% Telecommunications Networking and Equipment $178.3 $322.8 Media and Entertainment IT Services Semiconductors % % 7.39% Financial Services Electronics/Instrumentation $141.7 $120.0 Telecommunications Networking and Equipment Financial Services % 11.32% 0.66% Business Products and Services Consumer Products and Services $94.0 $91.5 Electronics/Instrumentation Business Products and Services Consumer Products and Services % % % Computers and Peripherals Healthcare Services $73.1 $55.9 Computers and Peripherals Healthcare Services Retailing/Distribution % -9.42% % Retailing/Distribution Other $49.2 $16.4 Other TOTAL n/a -6.96% $0 $900 $1,800 Total: $7,131.3 million in 907 deals Visit for Industry definitions Slide 6
7 Investments by Industry Quarterly Percent of Total U.S. Investments (% of Total Dollars) 30% Top 5 Industries Q3 07 to Q % 20% 15% 10% 14.28% 16.23% 13.92% 14.63% 18.93% 15.35% 17.47% 17.72% 16.48% 18.83% 13.93% 12.40% 16.49% 15.04% 16.71% 11.11% 12.68% 13.08% 12.13% 12.57% 6.19% 6.02% 6.09% 8.43% 5.74% 5% 0% Biotechnology Software Industrial/Energy Medical Devices and Equipment Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Media and Entertainment Slide 7
8 Investments by Stage of Development: ($ in millions) Later Stage $2,810.2 Expansion $2,650.6 Early Stage $1,227.1 Stage of Development # of Deals % Change in $ Amount from Q Later Stage % Expansion Stage % Startup/Seed $443.4 Early Stage Startup/Seed % 8.15% Total % $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Total: $7,131.3 million in 907 deals Slide 8
9 Median Deal Size vs. Mean Deal Size Quarterly Total U.S. Investments $10 $8.8 $8 $6.6 $6.3 $6.2 $6.7 $6.8 $7.2 $7.4 $7.4 $7.7 $7.5 $7.4 $7.5 $7.4 $7.2 $7.1 $7.0 $7.1 $6.8 $7.1 $8.0 $7.7 $7.9 $7.4 $7.9 $6 $4 $4.0 $3.2 $3.5 $4.0 $3.9 $4.5 $5.0 $4.6 $4.5 $4.7 $4.4 $4.5 $4.0 $4.8 $4.5 $4.0 $4.0 $4.0 $4.5 $4.3 $4.0 $4.0 $4.4 $3.8 $4.0 $2 $0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Median Deal Size Mean Deal Size Slide 9
10 Top 10 Deals : ($ Millions) Solar Reserve Santa Monica Cleantech 140 AVA Solar Ft. Collins, CO Cleantech 104 Pacific Biosciences Silicon Valley Cleantech 100 CVRx Minneapolis Med Device 84 Proteolix Silicon Valley Biotech 79 Recurrent Energy Silicon Valley Cleantech 75 Trion World Silicon Valley Software 70 Proto Labs Maple Plain, MN Cleantech 67 Fisker Automotive Irvine Cleantech 65 Portola Pharmaceuticals Silicon Valley Biotech 60 Slide 10
11 Most Active Venture Investors Venture Capital Firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson Intel Capital New Enterprise Associates Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers Sequoia Capital U.S. Venture Partners Greylock Partners InterWest Partners Polaris Venture Partners Sigma Partners Menlo Ventures Accel Partners Advanced Technology Ventures Canaan Partners CMEA Ventures Venrock Associates Location Menlo Park, California Santa Clara, California Baltimore, Maryland Menlo Park, California Menlo Park, California Menlo Park, California Waltham, Massachusetts Menlo Park, California Waltham, Massachusetts Menlo Park, California Menlo Park, California Palo Alto, California Waltham, Massachusetts Westport, Connecticut San Francisco, California Palo Alto, California Total Deals Slide 11
12 Thomson Reuters U.S. Private Equity Performance Index (PEPI) (Investment Horizon Performance through 06/30/2008) Fund Type 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year Early/Seed VC Balanced VC Later Stage VC All Venture (through 03/31/08) All Venture (through 06/30/07) NASDAQ S&P Source: Thomson Reuters/National Venture Capital Association *The Private Equity Performance Index is based on the latest quarterly statistics from Thomson Reuters Private Equity Performance Database analyzing the cashflows and returns for over 1941 US venture capital and private equity partnerships with a capitalization of $828 billion. Sources are financial documents and schedules from Limited Partner investors and General Partners. All returns are calculated by Thomson Reuters from the underlying financial cashflows. Returns are net to investor after management fees and carried interest. Slide 12
13 Annual VC Returns (IRR), Source: Venture Economics Top Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile S&P th Quartile -10 VC Funds Slide 13
14 Annual VC Returns (IRR), Source: Cambridge Associates, reported by Georganne Perkins at Stanford Top Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile S&P VC Funds Slide 14
15 Analysis of Venture-Backed IPO and M&A Activity Date Number of IPOs* Total Venture- Backed Offering Size ($M) Average Venture- Backed Offering Size ($M) Number of Venture-backed M&A deals Average M&A deal size** , , , , Q1 18 2, Q2 25 4, Q Q4 31 3, , Q Q n/a Q * Includes all companies with at least one U.S. VC investor that trade on U.S. exchanges, regardless of domicile **Only accounts for deals with disclosed values Source: Thomson Reuters and National Venture Capital Association Slide 15
16 Venture Capital Fundraising* Year First Time Funds Follow-On Funds Total Number of Funds VC Raised ($M) , , , , ,105.7 YTD ,326.1 Quarter Q ,636.8 Q ,641.9 Q ,595.5 Q ,231.5 Q ,959.2 Q ,247.7 Q ,119.2 *These figures take into account the subtractive effect of downsized funds Data current as of October 13, 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters & National Venture Capital Association Slide 16
17 Summary: Best of Times Full Year 2008 looks like $30 B, 4 th biggest ever 29 straight quarters from $ B/qtr Fundraising > Investment. Money Abundant Silicon Valley 3.3 x #2 New England California gets roughly 50% US VC investment VC s raised $8B in Q3 from LP s VC backed public companies = 18% US GDP (10 m jobs) Advertising $ to Internet/Mobile just begun (7%) Worldwide Ad Spending $600B 21% media time Internet/Mobile Top 100 US Adv. Moved $1B from TV/news to Web in 07 Primary News Source: 48% Internet, 29% TV, 11% radio, 10% newspaper US Media Mkt-Growth %: TV 70B:1%, Newspaper 42B:-(7)%, Radio 24B:5% Internet 19B:19%, Magazines 14B:7% No huge advertiser has switched yet 13% US marriages 2005 met online Cisco acquiring again SignalWorks Linksys Arroyo Video Solutions Actona Reactivity P-Cube Navini Networks Pure Networks Post Path Securent NetSolve FineGround Networks Dynamicsoft IronPort Systems Perfigo Meetinghouse Orative Protego Networks Sheer Networks Airespace Scientific Atlantic Topspin $ 14M 500M 92M 82M 135M 200M 330M 120M 215 M 100M 128M 70M 55M 830M 74M 44m 31m 65M 97M 450M 6900M 250M Slide 17
18 Summary: Not So Good Times IPO mkt weak - 6 vc backed IPO s in US in 08, lowest since 1977, down 93% vs 07, raised $0.5B vs $10.3B - 0 vc backed IPO s in Q2 08 & Q vc backed IPO in Q : 19,300 companies received funding, 351 IPO s Time to IPO: # Years from Series A: M&A weak deals (down 27%), $13.9B (down 51%) in 08 vs % drop in 08 to $300B - 32 deals >$1B in 08 vs 80 in 07 - Median M&A about $80M - $24 B exit value 08 vs $58 B in 07, lowest since 03 $4 Trillion mkt cap lost on US exchanges in last 12 months, e.g. - Citigroup: $130B gone, AIG: $150B - Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac: $105B ($1B left) US Homeowners lost $2 Trillion equity last 12 months - 12 Million homes worth less than mortgage Slide 18
19 Summary/Facts/Predictions VC s stop funding many portfolio companies More layoffs/cost cutting, unemployment up New Deals must be perfect All Deals Series A, lots of down rounds Fewer Deals per fund, higher reserves Need to get cash flow positive 2009 is the new 2001 Slide 19
20 Liquidity Dries Up: US VC $Inv & Exits # Deals # M&A # IPO Total # Liquidity % # Deals 9% 12% 11% 14% 13% 12% 10% Slide 20
21 Globalization Marches On China VC$ up 50% =$2.5B 2007, 10% of US, 73% $ foreign % Int l: 70% PC, 86% Internet, 92% Mobile China surpass US for most Internet users in 08 In China: Ten Cent, Baidu, Sina > Microsoft, Google, Yahoo India VC$ up 500% in 07 to $1.0B, $200M 06, $320M 05 Top GDP & Est. 09 % Change: US 0.2%, Japan 0.8%, China8.5%, Germany 0.6%, UK 0%, France 0.8%, Italy 0% India population surpass China by 2020 Slide 21
22 Steve Bengston PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of which is a separate and independent legal entity. *connectedthinking is a trademark of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. SJ_07_0080
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