Reversal of Fortune: The Edge to Al Gore

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: CAMPAIGN /11/00 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 9 P.M. Saturday, March 11, 2000 Reversal of Fortune: The Edge to Al Gore In a sharp reversal of fortune, the 2000 general election campaign begins with a newly invigorated Al Gore a half step ahead of George W. Bush the vice president bolstered by his sweeping primary victories, Bush battered by his far tougher nomination fight. Hard on the heels of his Super Tuesday sweep, most Americans rate Gore as "a strong leader," the first time that's happened in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back a year. Gore also now leads Bush in trust to handle seven of 12 contentious campaign issues, from gun control to Social Security - and runs even in the other five. All told, Gore now has 48 percent support among registered voters to Bush's 45 percent a dead heat, and the first-ever numerical edge for Gore in ABC/Post polls dating to September Bush led by 16 points as recently as five months ago. Presidential Preference Among Registered Voters Bush Gore 3/11/00 45% 48 10/31/ More telling, perhaps, is Gore's newfound advantage on personal qualities and the issues. Gore now runs even with Bush in trust to handle taxes; in October, Bush led on this issue by 19 points. Gore has turned a 17-point deficit on foreign affairs into a nine-point lead. And 55 percent now think Gore understands their problems, compared to 47 percent for Bush. Given such results, it's fair to wonder why Gore doesn t have a much more substantial lead. One reason is his lack of crossover support: Gore's attracting just five percent of Republicans, while Bush draws 13 percent of Democrats. Another, related issue is the gender gap: Gore leads by 12 points among women, who are more apt to be Democrats; Bush leads by eight points among men. Finally there's Clinton fatigue, an issue Bush can be expected to raise early and often. Fifty percent of Americans still say Gore is "too close to Bill Clinton to provide the fresh start the country needs." That's a major reason the race is so close. CHANGE The main dynamic at the moment, though, is Gore's advance at Bush's expense. How's it come about? Two ways: First, Bush's appeal has lost some of its sheen

2 as he's become better known, a process that started even before the primaries began; he's simply had problems establishing a rapport with the public. Second, Bush's battering by John McCain in the primaries dented his aura of invincibility and his defensive move to the political right damaged his support from independents, moderates and Democrats. Gore, on the other hand, seems to have gained in public esteem by so thoroughly vanquishing his rival, Bill Bradley. And because Bradley attacked from Gore's left, Gore was able to remain more solidly in the center than was Bush. Here's the result: Last October, Bush was backed by 56 percent of independents, 52 percent of moderates and even 26 percent of Democrats. Today his support from independents is down 16 points; from moderates, down 14 points; and from Democrats, down 13 points. Bush has held on to his core Republican and conservative support. % Supporting Bush 3/11 10/31 Change Independents 40% 56% -16 Democrats Republicans Moderates 38% 52% -14 Liberals Conservatives Another result shows the price of a bruising primary campaign: A solid majority of Americans, 68 percent, say the Democrats nominated their best candidate in Gore; only 25 percent say Bradley would have been stronger. But there's more second-guessing about the Republican outcome: Just 53 percent say Bush is the Republicans' best candidate; a sizable 42 percent think McCain would have been stronger. Who would have been the strongest nominee? Gore or Bradley Bush or McCain 68% 25 53% 42 Bare majorities of independents and Democrats think McCain would have been the stronger Republican nominee; only among Republicans does a majority think the party made the right choice. But majorities of independents, Republicans and Democrats alike think the Democrats made their best choice with Gore. NO SORE LOSERS - Perhaps surprisingly, this poll does not support the notion that Bush is in danger of losing many ex-mccain supporters to Gore. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who'd backed McCain for the nomination, only 14 percent say they'd now defect to Gore; 76 percent say they'll stay within the party and support Bush. That's logical, given that Bush and McCain are much closer on issues and ideology than are McCain and Gore.

3 In Super Tuesday exit polls, twice as many McCain voters, 37 percent, said they'd jump to Gore in a general election race against Bush. But that was among a smaller, more select group actual, hard-core McCain voters and it was a sentiment expressed in the heat of the primary battle. Indeed, more former Bradley supporters defect to Bush (29 percent) than former McCain supporters who go to Gore. The real general election battle, in any case, is in the broader center of American politics, chiefly independents and moderates, who've now see-sawed between Bush and Gore. THIRD PARTY The survey does not find overwhelming demand for a third-party candidacy by McCain or anyone else no surprise, since it customarily takes broad economic discontent to send voters looking for such an alternative. In a three-way general election trial heat, 37 percent of registered voters back Bush, 37 percent Gore and 23 percent McCain; perhaps surprisingly, McCain takes slightly more votes from Gore than from Bush. Pat Buchanan places far lower in a three-way heat, with just four percent support. More broadly, 68 percent of Americans say they'd be satisfied with a choice between Bush and Gore, up 13 points since last summer and the most in ABC/Post polls in this election or the last one. Presidential Preference - Among Registered Voters Bush Gore McCain Bush Gore Buchanan 3/11/00 37% % 46 4 VEEP? McCain as a vice-presidential candidate draws some interest: Twenty-one percent of Americans say it would make them more likely to support Bush for president, compared to 11 percent less likely. More important, among independents specifically, 28 percent say they'd be more apt to support Bush with McCain by his side, just nine percent less likely. And as would be expected, most former McCain supporters 61 percent of them would be more interested in Bush if McCain were his running mate. ISSUES Gore has seized the advantage on several issues. As noted above, in October Bush led by 17 points in public trust to handle foreign affairs; now Gore leads by nine points. On Social Security, Gore has turned a three-point deficit into a 13-point lead. On patients' rights he's expanded a four-point lead into 20 points. And he leads on Medicare, health care, the environment and gun control. The two now run even on taxes, after a 19-point Bush lead in October. They're also even in public trust to handle the economy (no halo for Gore from the Clinton expansion), education, abortion and campaign finance reform.

4 Trust to handle: Gore Bush The environment 53% 33 Patients' rights Medicare Foreign affairs Social Security Gun control Health care Education The economy Taxes Campaign finance reform Abortion Weighing two issues Social Security and taxes head-to-head, the public continues to say, by a 2-1 margin, that strengthening Social Security should be a higher priority than cutting taxes. Those more concerned with taxes favor Bush by better than 2-1; but, in the much larger group that's focused on Social Security, Gore leads by 19 points. SMARTS Whatever challenges he faces, this poll deflates the notion that Bush suffers from broad public doubt about his intelligence or maturity. Seventy-five percent of Americans call him "very intelligent," about the same as Gore's rating. And 70 percent say Bush is mature enough for the job, nearly equal to Gore's 75 percent. A bigger concern for Bush is reclaiming his erstwhile reputation as a reformer. In October 61 percent of Americans though he'd "bring needed change to Washington"; today just 50 percent feel that way. Fewer, however, think Gore would do so. Bush Gore He's very intelligent 75% 77% He's mature enough He's a strong leader He'd bring change to Washington He understands your problems GROUPS Among key support groups, Gore leads by better than 2-1 among people in union households; in non-union homes it s a four-point Bush edge. Bush leads by 45 points among religious right voters, 12 percent of the electorate. And Bush leads by 20 points among white Protestants, while white Catholics customarily a swing group favor Gore by 12 points. METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 9-11 among a random national sample of 1,218 adults. The results have a threepoint error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at:

5 Here are the full results (*= less than 0.5 percent): 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 3/11/ /27/ * 2/6/ /16/ * 12/15/ * 10/31/ * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 3/11/ * 2/27/ * 2/6/ * 1/16/ * 12/15/ /31/ * 3. If the election for president in November 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ /15/ * /31/ * 1 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ * /15/ * /31/ * 2 2 9/2/ * 3 2 8/22/ /6/ /14/ * 2 2 Unleaned, General Population: Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.

6 10/25/ /21/ /19/ /23/ How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican) and (Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 3/11/ * /31/ * How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican) and (John McCain, the Reform Party candidate), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush McCain (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 3/11/ * Please tell me whether the following statement applies to (Bush/Gore), or not? 3/11/ Bush Gore----- No No Yes No op. Yes No op. A. He understands the problems of people like you B. He is a strong leader C. He would bring needed change to Washington D. He s very intelligent E. He s mature enough to take on the responsibilities of the presidency Trend (where available): A. He understands the problems of people like you Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 3/11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/99 NA NA NA /14/ B. He is a strong leader Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 3/11/

7 2/27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ /13/99 NA NA NA /14/ C. He would bring needed change to Washington Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 3/11/ /27/ /6/ /16/ /15/ /31/ /2/ D. He s very intelligent Bush Gore Yes No No op. Yes No No op. 3/11/ /15/ Which candidate, (Gore) or (Bush), do you trust to do a better job on each of those issues? First is... Both Neither No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) opin. A. Handling the issue of gun control 3/11/ /31/ B. Reforming election campaign finance laws 3/11/ /31/ C. Protecting patients' rights in the health care system 3/11/ /31/ D. Holding taxes down 3/11/ /31/ E. Handling foreign affairs 3/11/ /31/ F. Protecting the Social Security system 3/11/ /31/ G. Improving the health care system 3/11/

8 H. Protecting the Medicare system 3/11/ /31/ I. Handling the national economy 3/11/ /31/ J. Improving education and the schools 3/11/ /31/ K. Protecting the environment 3/11/ /31/ L. Handling the abortion issue 3/11/ /31/ Which should be a higher priority for the next president - (cutting taxes) or (strengthening the Social Security system)? Cutting Strengthening No taxes Social Security opin. 3/11/ /27/ Suppose that Gore is the Democratic nominee for president in November 2000 and Bush is the Republican nominee. Would you be satisfied with the choice of Gore or Bush, or would you want a third-party candidate to run? Satisfied Third-party No opinion 3/11/ /31/ /2/ /11/ Compare to Clinton vs. Dole: Satisfied Third-party No opinion 11/8/ /1/ /18/ /9/ Who did you support for the Republican nomination for president this year - (George W. Bush), (John McCain), or (Alan Keyes)? Net Leaned Republicans: Other None/wouldn't No Bush McCain Keyes (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion 3/11/ * Compare to: Suppose your state holds a Republican primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are: (READ LIST). For whom would you vote - I'll read the list again: None/

9 Other wouldn t No Bush McCain Keyes Forbes Bauer Hatch (vol.) (vol.) op. 2/27/ NA NA NA 0 * * 2/6/ NA NA * 1 1 1/16/ /15/ * 10/31/ /2/99* * 2 2 8/8/99** * 4 7 3/4/99*** NA * * 2 *Dole=15, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3 **Dole=14, Quayle=3, Buchanan=3, Alexander < 0.5% ***Dole=25, Quayle=6, Buchanan=3, Kasich=2, Alexander=1, Smith < 0.5% 11. Who did you support for the Democratic nomination for president this year - (Al Gore) or (Bill Bradley)? Net Leaned Democrats: Other Neither/wouldn't No Gore Bradley (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion 3/11/ * Compare to: Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2000 and the candidates are: (READ LIST). For whom would you vote? Other Neither/wouldn't No Gore Bradley (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion. 2/27/ /6/ * 1/16/ /15/ /31/ * 1 3 9/2/ * 3 4 8/15/99* /13/ * 4 5 6/6/99** /14/99*** * 2 2 *Beatty=9 **Jackson=19 ***Jackson= As you may know, Bradley has dropped out of the Democratic race for president. Do you think Gore is the Democrats' best candidate, or do you think Bradley would have been the stronger Democratic candidate? Gore Bradley No opin. 3/11/ McCain has suspended his campaign in the Republican race for president. Do you think Bush is the Republicans' best candidate, or do you think McCain would have been the stronger Republican candidate? Bush McCain No opin. 3/11/ If Bush chose John McCain as his vice presidential running mate, would that make you more likely to support Bush for president, less likely, or wouldn t it make much of a difference?

10 More Less No No likely likely difference opinion 3/11/ Do you think Gore s/bush s views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opinion Gore: 3/11/ /27/ /24/ /6/ /2/ /14/ Bush: 3/11/ /27/ /24/ /6/ /2/ /14/ Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: Al Gore is too close to Bill Clinton to provide the fresh start the country needs. (GET ANSWER THEN ASK: Do you feel that way strongly, or only somewhat?) Agree Disagree No NET Strngly Smewht NET Strngly Smewht opin. 3/11/ /27/ /2/ ***END***