ADVANTAGES OF REGISTER BASED METHOD OVER THE TRADITIONAL METHOD FOR CENSUSES IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES WITH REFERENCE TO THE SUDAN CASE

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1 ADVANTAGES OF REGISTER BASED METHOD OVER THE TRADITIONAL METHOD FOR CENSUSES IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES WITH REFERENCE TO THE SUDAN CASE A.H. Ahmed, Neelain University, Sudan Abstract Sudan similar to many African countries is a very wide area country with a highly scattered population in a very bad infrastructure. Sudan has conducted five population censuses usingthe traditional field enumeration method.the results of all these censuses were rejected or highly adjusted due to lack of coverage and lack of accuracy.in this paper we show that if the international support and the relatively high budget used in traditional censuses directed toward building good register systems and improving official statistics much better census results are expected. The continuous update of these results will moreover serve other frequently needed statistics such as the S.D.Gs, unemployment, poverty, ext. 1 Introduction According to UNFPA reports most African countries are not committed to the U.N. recommendation of conducting a country population census every ten years. Some of these countries have no population census for more than 30 years [1]. It is observed that even those countries which were able to perform their population censuses have faced serious challenges. The most important are the lack of population coverage and the lack of information accuracy.it is known that the divide of shares in power, parliament s representation, development, infrastructure, services projects and many other benefitsdepend to high extend onthe census results. For that reason many parties or stock holders in the society are interested to see good and accurate census results.but unfortunatelymany censuses results were rejected by governments, by opposition parties, bypeopleleaders or by civil society organizations due these challenges. In some occasions that have led to regional or tribal conflicts. Many studies which tried to analyze this problem have agreed on the following: 1- The traditional method of censuses (house to house field coverage) is very expensive in general and most African counties cannot afford. 2- The week infra-structure (roads, transport,) in many African countries will increase the cost and the difficulties to reach the household. 3- The big size area and highly scattered population in many African countries will make full geographical coverage very difficult and reaching every household during the days of numeration may be impossible.

2 4- Using local teachers as numerators, which is the most practical option, has proved to be one of the main causes of inaccuracy due to their lack of qualification and sufficient training in this type of jobs. 5- Part of the population is not aware of the importance of the census and they don t care of giving the correct information and part is completely reluctant to participate. 6- In contrast other part are very aware of the importance of the census and will use all legal or illegal ways and methods to increase their size of population hoping to get higher representation in parliament and better share in services. 7- Part of the population, based on a traditional belief that the evil eyes of the numerators will kill their children or their animals, reflects to the enumerators very less number. 8- The administration of the logistics and man power in the traditional method is very complex and the accumulative experience of such activity is very limited IN GENERAL (one census every 10 years). Many enumeration areas may be missed, may not get the sufficient forms or may not reached. In the following section we describe the effect of the above challenges in Sudan censuses since 1955 which is very similar to many African countries. 2 Sudan Experience. The first Population Census was done by the British, in 1955/1956 and the enumeration was completed in a time span of one and a half years. There was an extensive use of the traditional administration (chiefs of the tribes).sampling was used to estimate the population in some difficult areas in jungles of the south and the highly scattered settlements in the Sahara. Also sampling was used tocheck thechiefs information when there is doubt about its accuracy. The total population enumerated was 10.1 million. This figure was adjusted to 10.3 million and was accepted by all the people of Sudan [2]. The second population census was delayed for five years and conducted in 1973 after the Addis Ababa 1972 peace Agreement for south Sudan. The Total population in 1973 was 14.8 million. The preliminary result was only 12.3 million which was very much less than expected. It was unfortunate that the enumeration failed at the beginning to cover the labor camps in some Gezira areas, difficult areas in the South and the scattered Nomads in the North. The results were rejected by the government and most of people and it was forced to be adjusted after a post-enumeration survey [3]. The third population census was conducted in The total population which was 20.6 million had been also adjusted to 19.1 million. There were concerns about accuracy in the South and nomads area due to weak logistics. It was noted that some enumerators who found it difficult to walk for long distances had used the chiefs of the tribes or do some guesses to fill the forms on behalf of the households [4]. The fourth population census was performed in 1993 and came up with a total population of24.9millionwhich had been adjusted later to 25.9 million. This count did not include the rural areas in the South because of war. Moreover no comprehensive coverage of the nomads had

3 taken place due to lack of logistics. In the 4th Population Census the proportion of the nomads had come out to be only 3% while it was 11% in the previous census. In addition an over count was noticed in some areas where inhabitants wanted to increase their sugar ration [5]. The fifth population census was conducted in 2008.It is considered as the best compared to it predecessors. It was based on Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement and therefor had god a lot of support from the international community [6]. But unfortunately serious drawbacks occurred during the enumeration days. It was noted that the nomads who were enumerated by their chiefs, were duplicated in certain areas intentionally severaltimes making use of the nomads move from locality to locality. Some chiefs also filled forms for their part of the tribe who are settled in towns or outside their area. On the other hand it was noted that also some enumerators (who are local teachers) filled the forms in their offices at the schools depending on their memorizing knowledge about the families. Others pushed the households to increase their population sizes with false information hoping to make advantages to their areas in services and political representation. Further analysis and discussion to these results is presented in the next section. 3- Analysis and Discussion The 1955/56 Population Census was the most accurate census in Sudan compared with others. It has become the standard base for all subsequent ones. All of them were adjusted according to that census as noted above. We can easily see that all problems are coming from the highly scattered nomads at the Sahara and reaching the difficult jungles of the south.it is impossible for the enumerators to do full coverage within the enumeration days, bearing on mind the bad infrastructure of the country in general. If we look to South Sudan(jungles) populations described in FIGURE (1) and nomadic (Sahara) population described in FIGURES(2,3) respectively,we observe illogical and inconsistent population growth. It is oscillating in the case of South Sudan and there is a big drop in the case of the nomads specifically in the 1993 census. The problems of enumerations South Sudan and the nomads were considered in details by Michael Maker [8] and by A.Modawi [7] respectively. The main reasons presented in these papers were:(1) incomplete coverage of all househols and difficulties in reaching even the covered households. (2)Lack of accuracy in the information given by the households or by the chiefs of the tribes in case of not capturing the households. It is reflected in those papers that it is commonly known in Sudan, the Dinka tribe of the south Sudan and the Arab nomads in north Sudan hate counting their children and animals. If they are forced to do so, usually they report lesser numbers, believing that the evil eyes of the enumerators may kill their children or animals when they are many. From the other side if we look to the sample of tables (1,2,3) comparing the population register counts, after intensive coverage in the presented areas,with the 2008 population census counts we observe how much increase was fabricated in nomadic and seminomadic areas. In some nomadic areas the increase was more than ten times. We noticed that the enumeration cooking increased in areas with more tribal conflicts (south Darfur, Kasala and Red sea) [9].Some areas which are not qualified for one seat in parliament have had three, four seats, or even more. For example if we look to FIGURE (4) of south Darfur in west Sudan, we note that (6.Tululs) and (17.Dumso) localities which are dominated by one tribe have a total of around according to the 2008 traditional census. But when that was tested by finger print in the population register system,the actual number turned out to be around only That is less than one seat(the seat size is around ).But the fact now they have 3 seats in the parliament. Similarly a

4 competing tribe in (8.Buram) locality which is nearly according to the 2008 census tuned out to be only with finger print register. In FIGURE(5),Red sea state of east Sudan, we note that (6.Hay)locality population size, according to 2008 census is nearly ,while the recent updated population register turned out to be nearly only. In a same manner a competitive tribe at (7.Toker) locality is more than according to the 2008 census, but after finger print registration recent population size turned out to be about only In FIGURE (6) we present similar results for Kasala state in east Sudan. The situation In this case is even worth if we consider (2.Hamashkoraib) and (3.Talkook) localities: They have 4 seats in the parliament based on the 2008 traditional census results, while their total size according to the recent updated population register turned out to be about only (1/3 of a seat).these two localities are special case.they accommodate the biggest centers of teaching Quran in Sudan. For that reason they used to have sympathy from enumerators and census officers allowing them to increase their number in order to get more sugar, sorghums or better services. All the five traditional censuses in Sudan have used the nomad schiefs in the enumeration process in order to overcome the problem of nomad s continuous movement. In the first four censuses, no fabricated number increaseswere noted. If there is any number change, it is mainly number decrease to avoid high tax or evil eyes as indicated earlier.but in the 2008 census all most all nomads have increased their numbers 4- Register Based Census. Based on the challenges mentioned in the introduction section and the analysis of thesudan case we can see it extremely difficult to conduct fair population census using the traditional field enumeration method. Since round 1990 the U.N. have accepted using register based method describing its advantages and disadvantages compared with the traditional one [10].Many demographers and statisticians have considered the challenges facing the traditional census method and suggested alternatives. One of the famous alternatives is the French method [11],[12] which has been modified to use administrative data[13],[14]. We will show in this section that the register based census is a very feasible way of overcoming those challenges facing traditional censuses in Sudan and other African countries. For example, if we consider the population register system and compare it with the traditional census method in counting the population, we will find many advantages. Some of them are described below: 1-The population register system has an open time to insure full coverage and to revise the quality of information. 2- It is linked with the daily life services (health, education, police, courts, passports, banks, social security ) which will force citizens to register. 3- It is using finger print for identification and that will not allow any chance of fabricated increase. If any tribe or community complained about its population size, it will be challenged to bring more members for registration and finger print if it has any. 4-It will give continuous updated results about vital statistics of the population. That is definitely more accurate compare with the estimated update usually used in the traditional census.

5 If we consider other official registers such as health, education, employment, pension, business, housing, buildings and other social or economic data, we will find them much better compared with the statics captured by the enumerators during the enumeration process in the traditional census. That is because the official registers are based on information revised by the people committees at the village or nomads settlement level and revised again by the government administrator at the administrative unit level and by the locality senior administrators at the locality level.then analyzed by ministries at the state or region leveland at the central ministrylevel. From the other side most of households as indicated earlier do not give correct or accurate answers for a reason or another when asked about these types of information. Further, the good coverage of mobile and internet in most African countries (e.g. population coverage in Sudan nearly 90%) and the large development in I.C.T. in general will allow for on line update of population register or other registers data. In Sudan, for example the population registers system, which is run by the ministry of interior, has good computer facilities and is gradually building up a social or an administrative network to cover the whole country for vital data update. It is worth mentioning that the national information center (N.I.C.) of Sudan has a computerized system based on the U.N. socio-economic and the S.D.G. indicators, called the states statistical system, to collect and analyze data from the village level.the system is using cloud technology and is connecting all localities to the N.I.C. data center. This system represents an on line update to the federal ministers information. Despite of all those advantages of register based census over the traditional one, we can t say that it is perfect or it will guarantee full coverage and full accuracy. For the case of Sudan for example, still a lot of effort is needed to complete and improve the social or administrative network in registering vital data events. Also many localities need a lot of follow up and pressure to update their information on time and make full use of the state s statistical system.however, in all circumstances we can easily measure the gaps in coverage or accuracy and can easily put a time table plan for measurable improvements in the case of civil registration and official statistics method. That is very difficult in the case of the traditional method. 5- Conclusion. It is shown in this paper that due to many challenges such as budget limitation, bad infrastructure, a wide distribution of population, lack of population awareness or interest to reflect correct information, administrative complexity, lack in logistics and lack of staff experiences all most all censuses in Sudan and many African countries using traditional method have failed. It is also shown that it is extremely difficult or even impossible to overcome those challenges using traditional methods in the present situation of most African countries. It is further shown that register based method is in a better position to deal with such challenges and give far better census results. In addition the base register method has the advantage of on line or high frequent update of information and that will respond to the needs of many other stakeholders requiring information for example about S.DGs, unemployment, child and mother mortality or others.. The intelligent use of I.C.T. is a main factor for the register based census success.

6 FIGURE (1) Percentage of the Population of South Sudan FIGURE(2)

7 FIGURE (3)

8 FIGURE(4):South Darfur State traditional versus register population census No Locality 2008 traditional Census Register based population % rate 1. Neyala Town % East of Jebel Marra (Conflict) % Kass Semi Town % Ed-alforsan Semi Town % Elsalam Semi Town % Tulus(nomads) % RhidelbredySemi Town % Bram (nomads) % Katila(nomads) % Gereida Neyala North Town % Mrsheng % ElrdomSemi Town % Elsanta(nomads) % Om Dafoqe(nomads) % Ntiqa(nomads) % Dumso(nomads) % ShatayaSemi Town % BalilaTown % El wehda(nomads) % Kebm Semi Town %49.06 Total %59.27

9 FIGURE(5):Red Sea State traditional versus register population census No Locality 2008 traditional Census Register based population %rate 1. Halaib(nomads) % Elqneb(nomads) % Port Sudan Town % Sawaken semi Town % Senkat(nomads) % Haya(nomads) % Toker(nomads) % Ageeg(nomads) % JebetElmaaden(nom ads) %10.94 Derdeeb(nomads) %31.28 Total %50.80 No FIGURE(6): Kassala State traditional versus register based population census Locality 1. North Delta waqer (semi nomads) 2008 traditional Register based %rate Census population % Hamashkoreeb(nomads) % Talkook(nomads) % Kassala west % Kassala Town % Kassala rural % HalfaElgadeedaTown % Atbara River % Sateet El qrba Town % Wed Elhelo Town % South Delta Aroma semi Town %55.13 Total %63.61

10 References :- [1] The 2010 Round :Population and Housing Censuses in Africa, Economic Commission For Africa, E/ECA/STATCOM/3/9, JUNE 2011, [2] First Population Census of Sudan 1955/1956 Final Report, CBS, Sudan. [3] Second Population Census of Sudan 1973 Final Report, CBS, Sudan. [4] Third Population Census of Sudan 1983 Final report, CBS, Sudan [5]Ibraheem Abbas, Fourth Population Census of Sudan 1993, Analytical Report, Khartoum, December 1996, CBS, Sudan. [6]A. H. Ahmed, The fifth population census: A census with a full coverage and high accuracy, [7] Michael Maker Mangony, Population of Southern Sudan, 1993 census Analytical Report, December 1996, CBS, Sudan. [8] AbdelWahab Al Modawi, Population size and Growth in Sudan 1993 Analytical Report, December 1996, CBS, Sudan. [9] Eric Dennis, Demographic E thnique, modernization. ET violence AU Darfour. Amales of Ethiopie.Vol XX , CBS, Sudan. [10] Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing censuses, series M, No 67/Rev 2, U.N. Statistics Division, [11] French methods and practices regarding statistical burdens, INSEE,France, [12]Desrosieres, A. (2001), Frances National council for Statistical information(cnis):origin, missions and role of improving quality, Proceeding of the international conference on quality in official statistics,stockholm. [13]Brion, PH. (2007) Redesigning the French structural business statistics using more administrative data, Proceedings of the third International Conference on Establishment Surveys, Montereal. [14] Desrosieres, A. (2007), Surveys versus administrative:reflection on the duality of statistical sources, Courier des statistiques, Version no 13.