POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR DIVISIONS AND DISTRICTS OF BIHAR

Transcription

1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR DIVISIONS AND DISTRICTS OF BIHAR PANKAJ SINHA AND KAUSHLENDRA KUMAR Introduction While India is the second most populous country in the world, Bihar is the 3rd most populous state of India. According to 2001 Census the population of Bihar has been enumerated to be approximately 83 million (47 million males and 36 million females). For the purpose of administration Bihar has been divided into 9 Divisions and 37 districts. Bihar is a predominantly agricultural state with 70 percent of its population residing in rural areas. The state, however, has only 2.8 percent of India s total land area, and thus has a density of 880 persons per square km. Considering only population size, 13 countries including India as a whole, have populations larger than that of Bihar. Bihar is really a population giant and what is happening to the population of this state has a significant impact on not only the population of the country but also on global population. The importance to have a demographic study at the district level, has been growing because, in planning for the country s economic development planner, the programme administrator tries to build its programme for smaller areas like divisions or districts. Each of these areas may have its own special characteristics regarding the availability of natural resources, climatic and geographic conditions to population growth. In fact, the problems in each area or at least in some of them may be different and require separate consideration. Moreover, a regional plan permits more easily an identification of national goals in terms of local action. Population projections for the country as a whole as well as for the states have been worked by the Expert Committee. But no official projections are available at the district level. Pankaj Sinha, Statistical Investigator Grade I, Directorate of Census Operations, Bihar, Patna, Kaushlendra Kumar, Assistant Professor, Department of Extra Mural Studies And Distance Education, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai The Journal of Family Welfare

2 Population projection for smaller areas or districts are needed for planning in several of the social and economic development programmes such as schools, food, water supply, hospitals, housing, transport and roads, communication, power, recreational space and amenities etc. Therefore, the present study has been carried out to provide estimates of future population at division and district levels in Bihar. In the present study an attempt has been made to project population by sex and place of residence for the period using the well-known Ratio Method utilizing the future estimates of population of Bihar as given by the Expert Committee on Population Projection. 1 Methodology Sources of data The following data sources have been used for the present study: 1) 1991 and 2001 Censuses of Bihar, (Table 1) 2) Expert Committee Population Projection for India and States , 3) Sample Registration System Reports for the years 1981, 1991 and 2001, and 4) District Census Handbooks of 1991, and 2001 of different districts of Bihar. 2 TABLE 1 Basic demographic indicators of Bihar for the period Indicators CBR (Crude Birth Rate)* CDR (Crude Death Rate )* IMR (Infant Mortality Rate)* TFR (Total Fertility Rate)** Sex Ratio** Expectancy of Life at Birth* Male Female Age-Group* Indicators Urban Rural * Based on SRS Reports of 1981, 1991, 2001, respectively ** Bbased on Census Reports of 1981, 1991, 2001, respectively The following were assumptions made: (a) Population change in the divisions and districts are in the same direction; and (b) The ratio of the population of a district to population of the corresponding division observed in the latest decade will change linearly and continue in the next subsequent five years. Reconstitution of Districts The districts are reconstituted on the basis of jurisdiction finalized in 2001 census. For example Patna district had 28 Blocks in the 1971 Census. But in 1981 Census it breaks up in two districts namely Patna and Nalanda, respectively, having 16 and 12 C.D. Blocks. The villages which are the part of those 12 C.D. Blocks of the new district Nalanda created during 1981 census are identified and the population of these villages as per jurisdiction finalized in 2001 Census have been added to make the total population of the Blocks in 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Census, respectively. To further clarify, suppose one Block of the newly created district Nalanda is composed of 57 villages in 2001 Census. Only those 57 villages are identified and their populations in 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001 census is obtained through District Census Handbook (DCH) and added to get the exact population of the particular Block in different Censuses. Vol. 55, No. 2, December

3 Techniques of Projection Population projection can be done by any one of the several methods depending upon the wide variety of local situation represented and the difference in the type of data available. For the sake of convenience, the methods can be classified into three broad categories: (A) Mathematical Method (B) Component Method (C) Miscellaneous Methods like Ratio Method, Urban Rural Growth Difference Method etc. In general, the Component Method is more logical and Bihar state population projection ( ) has been worked out using this method by the Expert Committee. But in view of the wide variations in the growth rate of smaller areas like districts, this method is not preferred. The problem of small area projection differs from national projections because of the role of migration. The mobility of the population within the national borders is less restricted than across the borders. The contribution of internal migration to population growth is much larger for small areas such as districts than for the state as a whole. A similar situation prevails when we compare movement of people within a state and outside. The former is subject to greater error than the latter. Moreover, in the case of internal migration, even the Census data do not show the time of movements, the intermediate movements etc, of the people and the data are defective for many reasons. As the failure to take account for migration with non-availability of reliable and appropriate data would lead to totally unrealistic results, the Component Method could not be adopted. The Ratio Method which is comparatively better in such circumstances has been used. Ratio Method Ratio Method is one of the most commonly used methods for making projections for small area because it makes no demand individually on the vital statistics, such as birth rates and death rates or migration rates which are normally inadequate in most developing countries. The method was originally developed by Hagood and Seigel 3 who applied this method for projecting the population of regions of the United States. Ratio Method depends heavily on the regularity of past trends and is logical as the estimate of population obtained are correlated with estimates of future population of the state. Thus, it takes into account, to some extent, the factors of growth viz. fertility, mortality, and migration. Further, it can also be applied to estimate population by sex. The Ratio Method does not by itself provide population projections. Its function is solely to provide sets of ratios which when multiplied by a given projection, indicate the population in the constituent parts of the area. This method involves the calculation of ratio of the local area population to that of a larger area and the study of the trend of these ratios over time for projecting them into the future. The projected ratios are applied to the population projections available for the larger area to get total projected population of the sub-area. For example, let P t be the total population of a country at time t and P i t be the total population of ith area (state, District).The Ratio R i t is defined as follows 4 : R i t = P i t / P t The method used here for projecting total population of each division and district of Bihar from 2006 to 2026 is the Ratio Method. The Ratio Method specifically assumes the availability of a population projection of Bihar as available in the Expert Committee Projection for the period The Journal of Family Welfare

4 The procedure adopted is as follows: First, the ratio of population (Ri) of each division to the total population of the state and the ratio of each district to the total population of its division have been computed for Census from 1991 to 2001 (Table 3). TABLE 3 A Projected percentage distribution of total population of Divisions of Bihar, Division of Bihar Percentage distribution of population Bihar Bhagalpur Darbhanga Kosi Magadh Munger Patna Purnia Saran Tirhut As the trends in ratios during the period immediately prior to 2001 would be of greater value for the purpose of projection than trends in the remote past, all the ratios of change in the ratios have been worked out with reference to 2001 Census ratios. The rates of change so determined were assumed to apply in the computations to the initial projection year 2001.The formula for projecting ratios for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 is as follows. 5 P 2006= P 2001 (1 + R o.t) where t = 5. Here Ro is the rate of change in the initial projection year. The same process has been repeated to get the ratios for every five years. After calculating the ratios, the estimates of future population of area i at any time t say, Pit is found by multiplying the estimated future ratio Rit by estimated future population of the larger area P i t as follows 6 : P i t = R i t*pt For the errors in projections by Ratio Method, which arises due to errors in projection of total population and the errors occurring in the estimation of ratio at a future date, an adjustment has been made in ratios or the estimates of population of various areas and the ratios have been prorated. The final estimate has been made using the following formula 6 : P i t = P i t *Pt/ P i t Finally, population projections of each division have been obtained from 2001 to 2026 by applying these projected ratios for divisions to projection of the total population of Bihar worked out by the Expert Committee for these years. Projections of the population of each district have been obtained by applying the districts ratios to the total projected population of division for these years. The results are shown in Table 4B. TABLE 4 A Projected percentage distribution of total population of Districts, Divisions & Districts Percentage distribution of population Bhagalpur Banka Darbhanga Madhubani Samastipur Madhepura Saharsa Supaul Aurangabad Gaya Jehanabad Nawada Jamui Khagaria Munger Lakhisarai Sheikhpura Begusarai Vol. 55, No. 2, December

5 Divisions & Districts Percentage distribution of population Bhojpur Buxar Kaimur Patna Rohtas Nalanda Araria Katihar Kishanganj Purnia Gopalganj Saran Siwan East Champaran Muzaffarpur Sheohar Sitamarhi Vaishali West Champaran Method Used for Population Projection by Sex Projection for sex distribution of subnational population is very complex not only due to non-availability of reliable data on fertility and mortality but also due to greater role of migration influencing population. However, once ratio is projected one can get the proportionate distribution of population of state divisionwise and district-wise, respectively. It may be possible that the projected distribution may not add to unity and, therefore, they have to be adjusted. The method and assumptions used in projecting sex-wise district population is also obtained by the same procedure, i.e. projecting the total population of the division and district. The final results are utilized as a basis for the projection at the next projection date by the same procedure. The population projection by sex for each district is shown in Table 5B & 6B for male and female population, respectively. TABLE 5 A Projected percentage distribution of male population of Districts of Bihar, Percentage Distribution of Population Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur Banka Darbhanga Madhubani Samastipur Madhepura Saharsa Supaul Aurangabad Gaya Jehanabad Nawada Jamui Khagaria Munger Lakhisarai Sheikhpura Begusarai Bhojpur Buxar Kaimur Patna Rohtas Nalanda Araria Katihar Kishanganj Purnia Gopalganj Saran Siwan East Champaran Muzaffarpur Sheohar Sitamarhi Vaishali West Champaran The Journal of Family Welfare

6 TABLE 6A Projected Percentage Distribution of Female Population of Districts of Bihar, Divisions & Districts Percentage distribution of population Bhagalpur Banka Darbhanga Madhubani Samastipur Madhepura Saharsa Supaul Aurangabad Gaya Jehanabad Nawada Jamui Khagaria Munger Lakhisarai Sheikhpura Begusarai Bhojpur Buxar Kaimur Patna Rohtas Nalanda Araria Katihar Kishanganj Purnia Gopalganj Saran Siwan East Champaran Muzaffarpur Sheohar Sitamarhi Vaishali West Champaran Method Used for Population Projection by Place of Residence The method and assumptions used in projecting rural-urban district population is also obtained by the same procedure; i.e. projecting the total population of the division and district. The final results are utilized as a basis for the projection at the next projection date by the same procedure. The population projection by rural and urban place of residence for each district is shown in Table 7B and 8B for rural population, and urban population, respectively. TABLE 7A Projected percentage distribution of rural population of Districts of Bihar, Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur Banka Darbhanga Madhubani Samastipur Madhepura Saharsa Supaul Aurangabad Gaya Jehanabad Nawada Jamui Khagaria Munger Lakhisarai Sheikhpura Begusarai Bhojpur Buxar Kaimur Patna Rohtas Nalanda Vol. 55, No. 2, December

7 Divisions & Districts Araria Katihar Kishanganj Purnia Gopalganj Saran Siwan East Champaran Muzaffarpur Sheohar Sitamarhi Vaishali West Champaran Table 8A Projected percentage distribution of urban population of Districts of Bihar Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur Banka Darbhanga Madhubani Samastipur Madhepura Saharsa Supaul Aurangabad Gaya Jehanabad Nawada Jamui Khagaria Munger Lakhisarai Sheikhpura Begusarai Divisions & Districts Bhojpur Buxar Kaimur Patna Rohtas Nalanda Araria Katihar Kishanganj Purnia Gopalganj Saran Siwan East Champaran Muzaffarpur Sheohar Sitamarhi Vaishali West Champaran Limitations Since these projections are based on data of Expert Committee on Population Projection, the accuracy depends upon the accuracy of Expert Committee Projections. Apart from this, the reliability of the projections generally decreases as the size of the area decreases mainly because of the impact of migration. The projections made in this analysis assume that migration is constant. Bihar has high out-migration to the rural and urban areas of the neighbouring states, especially Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab as well as Maharashtra. The projections presented in this paper are likely to prove over-estimated. Results Trends in Demographic Indicators of Bihar It can be seen from the Table 1 that Basic Demographic Indicators have a downward tendency through the last decades. For example, the Crude Birth Rate of Bihar which was 39.1 in 1981 has reduced to The Journal of Family Welfare

8 in Similarly, the Crude Death Rate of Bihar has also reduced considerably during the said period which was 13.9 in 1981 and has reduced to 8.2 in If we consider Infant Mortality Rate then the reduction is more perceptible, reduced from in 1981 to 61.0 in A close look at the trends of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Bihar from 1981 onwards suggests that it has stalled over a decade recording minor fluctuations in its trends. But the broad pattern has remained by and large the same over the period, i.e. TFR of around 4, a level much higher than the national average. The Sex Ratio shows an alarming situation in the state of Bihar, it was 946 in 1981 which reduced considerably to 919 in 2001, much lower than the national average. On the other hand, Expectation of Life at Birth, which is the best indicator of mortality, has increased considerably during the aforesaid periods. It was 54.2 years in for males which increased to 65.6 years in Similarly, female life expectancy at birth in 1981 was 51.5 years which increased to 62.1 year in As seen from the Table, if we consider the Age-Group composition it has remained almost the same through the decades with slight variation in the age groups of and 60+ years. However, if urban-rural perspective is taken, it can be observed that the population in the age group 0-14 years has reduced through the decades in both rural and urban areas and the population percent has increased in the age group years in both the rural and urban areas. TABLE 2 Projected population of Bihar for by sex and place of residence Population (000s) 2001 Total 82,999 90,752 97, , , ,847 Male projected population 43,244 47,165 50,640 53,676 56,341 58,409 Male (%) Female 39,755 43,586 47,080 50,231 53,091 55,437 Female (%) Rural 74,317 81,232 87,440 92,946 97, ,626 Rural (%) Male 38,595 42,079 45,162 47,851 50,208 51,414 Male (%) Female 35,722 39,152 42,278 45,094 47,646 49,211 Female (%) Urban 8,682 9,520 10,280 10,962 11,578 13,221 Urban (%) Male 4,649 5,086 5,478 5,825 6,133 6,995 Male (%) Female 4,033 4,434 4,802 5,137 5,445 6,226 Female (%) Source: Expert Committee Population Projection for India and States Vol. 55, No. 2, December

9 Table 2 shows that there will be a downward trend of the proportion of males in the total population throughout the period The proportion of males will reduce from 52.1 percent in 2001 to 51.3 percent in However, during the same periods female proportion in the total population will increase from 47.9 percent to 48.7 percent. In rural areas, male population will have a downward trend and will have reduced proportion. In case of males, the proportion will be reduced from 51.9 percent in 2001 to 51.1 percent in However, during the same periods female proportion in total population will increase from 48.1 percent to 48.9 percent. In urban areas the reverse will happen. The proportion of urban population will increase over the years as shown in the Table it will increase from 10.5 percent in 2001 to 13.1 in The same trend will be seen in the proportion of male and female population in urban areas. In the case of male population the increase in proportion will be 10.7 percent in 2001 to 13.6 percent in However in case of female population the increase in proportion will be 10.1 percent to 12.6 percent. TABLE 3 B Projected total population of Divisions of Bihar, Division Projected total population Bihar * 90,752,000 97,720, ,908, ,431, ,847,000 Bhagalpur 4,412,094 4,749,815 5,049,557 5,317,287 5,531,483 Darbhanga 11,267,038 12,164,320 12,950,553 13,647,001 14,201,845 Kosi 5,303,875 5,760,798 6,151,673 6,492,296 6,761,363 Magadh 9,824,366 10,676,912 11,404,672 12,037,918 12,537,734 Munger 8,281,836 8,946,592 9,527,630 10,041,469 10,450,487 Patna 14,900,864 15,568,894 16,307,477 17,045,545 17,666,835 Purnia 9,443,144 10,312,818 11,042,850 11,670,375 12,162,433 Saran 8,873,983 9,550,719 10,152,089 10,689,653 11,119,896 Tirhut 18,444,801 19,989,133 21,321,500 22,489,456 23,414,925 * Source-Expert Committee Population Projection for India and States Table 3B shows the projected population of divisions of Bihar. Review of the Tables reveal that there will be increasing tendency in absolute population in all divisions of Bihar. However, increase in population will be of diminishing nature. The highest absolute increase in population may take place in Tirhut division followed by Darbhanga, Patna, and Purnia; whereas, lowest increase in absolute population will take place in Bhagalpur followed by Kosi and Munger, respectively, during 2006 and The results of the projection are given in Table 4B. 62 The Journal of Family Welfare

10 TABLE 4 B Projected total population of Districts of Bihar, Projected Total Population Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 2,661,777 2,870,952 3,055,011 3,218,507 3,348,947 Banka 1,750,316 1,878,862 1,994,546 2,098,780 2,182,536 Darbhanga 3,718,222 4,040,718 4,315,980 4,555,520 4,744,607 Madhubani 3,954,953 4,255,956 4,523,581 4,762,914 4,954,510 Samastipur 3,593,863 3,867,646 4,110,991 4,328,567 4,502,729 Madhepura 1,692,341 1,834,864 1,957,606 2,065,072 2,150,172 Saharsa 1,695,304 1,850,720 1,981,308 2,093,664 2,181,815 Supaul 1,916,230 2,075,214 2,212,759 2,333,560 2,429,376 Aurangabad 2,244,754 2,439,459 2,605,680 2,750,328 2,864,504 Gaya 3,866,693 4,198,892 4,483,297 4,731,278 4,927,224 Jehanabad 1,677,097 1,816,290 1,936,710 2,042,463 2,126,338 Nawada 2,035,821 2,222,270 2,378,986 2,513,849 2,619,668 Jamui 1,577,308 1,720,830 1,841,630 1,945,724 2,027,465 Khagaria 1,423,879 1,543,053 1,645,825 1,735,923 1,807,325 Munger 1,220,998 1,299,852 1,374,176 1,442,995 1,499,025 Lakhisarai 872, , ,620 1,044,129 1,085,606 Sheikhpura 573, , , , ,913 Begusarai 2,613,031 2,831,025 3,019,201 3,184,282 3,315,154 Bhojpur 2,291,463 2,384,450 2,492,402 2,602,491 2,695,937 Buxar 1,454,429 1,524,973 1,600,071 1,673,917 1,735,667 Kaimur 1,348,448 1,419,739 1,492,763 1,563,287 1,621,802 Patna 4,919,945 5,172,769 5,434,985 5,689,743 5,901,669 Rohtas 2,526,550 2,642,250 2,768,780 2,894,688 3,000,499 Nalanda 2,360,029 2,424,713 2,518,476 2,621,418 2,711,261 Araria 2,435,204 2,662,936 2,853,280 3,016, ,4073 Katihar 2,670,626 2,904,806 3,104,138 3,277,210 3,413,655 Kishanganj 1,450,896 1,580,100 1,689,585 1,784,346 1,858,926 Purnia ,745,777 Gopalganj 2,357,362 2,539,275 2,700,299 2,843,880 2,958,653 Saran 2,958,618 3,179,016 3,376,410 3,553,734 3,696,007 Siwan 3,558,004 3,832,427 4,075,380 4,292,038 4,465,235 East Champaran 4,367,757 4,734,225 5,050,127 5,326,928 5,546,218 Muzaffarpur 4,107,663 4,428,603 4,711,533 4,963,159 5,164,034 Sheohar 587, , , , ,385 Sitamarhi 3,018,307 3,295,609 3,528,442 3,728,682 3,885,748 Vaishali 2,979,822 3,211,877 3,416,667 3,598,926 3,744,475 West Champaran 3,384,025 3,673,867 3,922,172 4,138,816 4,310,065 The projected population of the district synchronizes with the trend of projected population of the state which shows that the results, thus, show that the projected population of the districts are valid in the light of state level projection for the period from It would be interesting to glance at Table 4B, showing population size during 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 and As regards population size, Patna district stands first followed by East Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Madhubani and Gaya; whereas, Sheikhpura will occupy the last position followed by Sheohar, Lakhisarai and Munger, during the aforesaid periods. Vol. 55, No. 2, December

11 TABLE 5B Projected total male population of Districts of Bihar, Divisions and Districts Bhagalpur 1,414,142 1,522,735 1,619,008 1,704,941 1,773,669 Banka 913, ,243 1,038,540 1,092,290 1,135,607 Darbhanga 1,941,527 2,109,162 2,252,436 2,377,234 2,475,794 Madhubani 2,031,106 2,182,787 2,318,504 2,440,359 2,538,104 Samastipur 1,863,034 2,004,474 2,130,334 2,242,946 2,333,121 Madhepura 876, ,749 1,008,056 1,062,327 1,105,549 Saharsa 881, ,665 1,024,512 1,081,661 1,126,708 Supaul 993,542 1,073,644 1,143,564 1,205,340 1,254,490 Aurangabad 1,155,129 1,252,264 1,335,958 1,409,258 1,467,312 Gaya 1,986,663 2,152,775 2,296,150 2,421,869 2,521,500 Jehanabad 867, , ,452 1,053,691 1,096,787 Nawada 1,043,514 1,137,638 1,217,091 1,285,679 1,339,586 Jamui 818, , ,186 1,006,551 1,048,569 Khagaria 751, , , , ,176 Munger 649, , , , ,746 Lakhisarai 449, , , , ,378 Sheikhpura 297, , , , ,061 Begusarai 1,361,699 1,472,542 1,568,950 1,653,960 1,721,533 Bhojpur 1,205,677 1,254,944 1,311,938 1,369,979 1,419,218 Buxar 762, , , , ,778 Kaimur 705, , , , ,585 Patna 2,623,358 2,756,001 2,894,570 3,029,654 3,142,191 Rohtas 1,317,890 1,375,473 1,439,889 1,504,609 1,559,214 Nalanda 1,227,948 1,258,950 1,306,255 1,358,930 1,405,133 Araria 1,270,387 1,387,948 1,486,493 1,571,117 1,637,439 Katihar 1,388,228 1,508,048 1,610,511 1,699,767 1,770,255 Kishanganj 748, , , , ,827 Purnia 1,502,558 1,644,991 1,763,603 1,864,966 1,944,194 Gopalganj 1,167,959 1,252,673 1,329,230 1,398,392 1,454,040 Saran 1,504,101 1,615,615 1,715,650 1,805,605 1,877,814 Siwan 1,745,286 1,876,489 1,993,634 2,098,667 2,182,858 East Champaran 2,293,963 2,481,708 2,644,784 2,788,416 2,902,513 Muzaffarpur 2,130,346 2,291,878 2,435,683 2,564,386 2,667,458 Sheohar 310, , , , ,414 Sitamarhi 1,591,197 1,735,340 1,856,845 1,961,643 2,043,973 Vaishali 1,551,806 1,672,696 1,779,371 1,874,301 1,950,109 West Champaran 1,768,695 1,914,059 2,040,154 2,151,118 2,239, The Journal of Family Welfare

12 TABLE 6B Projected of Total female population of Districts of Bihar, Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 1,247,635 1,348,218 1,436,004 1,513,566 1,575,278 Banka 836, , ,006 1,006,491 1,046,929 Darbhanga 1,776,695 1,931,556 2,063,544 2,178,287 2,268,813 Madhubani 1,923,847 2,073,169 2,205,077 2,322,555 2,416,406 Samastipur 1,730,829 1,863,171 1,980,658 2,085,621 2,169,608 Madhepura 815, , ,550 1,002,744 1,044,623 Saharsa 814, , ,796 1,012,004 1,055,107 Supaul 922,689 1,001,570 1,069,195 1,128,221 1,174,886 Aurangabad 1,089,625 1,187,195 1,269,722 1,341,070 1,397,192 Gaya 1,880,030 2,046,118 2,187,147 2,309,410 2,405,724 Jehanabad 809, , , ,772 1,029,550 Nawada 992,308 1,084,632 1,161,894 1,228,170 1,280,082 Jamui 758, , , , ,896 Khagaria 671, , , , ,149 Munger 571, ,212 6,465, , ,278 Lakhisarai 423, , , , ,228 Sheikhpura 276, , , , ,852 Begusarai 1,251,332 1,358,483 1,450,251 1,530,322 1,593,621 Bhojpur 1,085,786 1,129,506 1,180,464 1,232,512 1,276,719 Buxar 691, , , , ,889 Kaimur 643, , , , ,217 Patna 2,296,588 2,416,768 2,540,415 2,660,089 2,759,478 Rohtas 1,208,660 1,266,777 1,328,891 1,390,080 1,441,285 Nalanda 1,132,081 1,165,763 1,212,222 1,262,488 1,306,128 Araria 1,164,817 1,274,988 1,366,788 1,445,273 1,506,634 Katihar 1,282,398 1,396,759 1,493,627 1,577,443 1,643,400 Kishanganj 702, , , , ,099 Purnia 1,383,859 1,519,986 1,632,243 1,727,463 1,801,584 Gopalganj 1,189,403 1,286,602 1,371,069 1,445,488 1,504,614 Saran 1,454,517 1,563,402 1,660,760 1,748,129 1,818,193 Siwan 1,812,717 1,955,938 2,081,745 2,193,371 2,282,377 East Champaran 2,073,794 2,252,518 2,405,343 2,538,511 2,643,705 Muzaffarpur 1,977,316 2,136,725 2,275,850 2,398,773 2,496,576 Sheohar 276, , , , ,971 Sitamarhi 1,427,110 1,560,269 1,671,597 1,767,039 1,841,775 Vaishali 1,428,016 1,539,181 1,637,297 1,724,624 1,794,366 West Champaran 1,615,330 1,759, ,2018 1,987, ,0840 Vol. 55, No. 2, December

13 Table 5B and 6B shows the projected population by district and sex for the period under study. It may be observed from the Tables that the overall sex-ratio for the state of Bihar has a tendency to increase from 2006 onwards. The male and female population has tendency to increase, but the absolute increase will be of diminishing nature and the sex ratio will improve in the aforesaid periods. Of the 37 districts of Bihar, 2 districts namely, Gopalganj and Siwan have had a higher sex ratio in 2001 and they continue to have a higher sex ratio till In all other districts of Bihar the same trend followed in 2001 may be followed during In absolute terms, the highest increase in male population may take place in Gaya district while in case of females; the highest increase in population may take place in East Champaran. On the reverse, the lowest increase in both male and female population may take place in Sheikhpura district during TABLE 7B Projected of total rural population of Districts of Bihar Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 2,155,362 2,319,576 2,465,518 2,596,003 2,700,451 Banka 1,688,456 1,812,201 1,923,643 2,024,100 2,104,837 Darbhanga 3,426,826 3,729,429 3,986,314 4,209,039 4,384,512 Madhubani 3,819,941 4,112,125 4,371,472 4,603,158 4,788,536 Samastipur 3,480,857 3,754,307 3,994,633 4,208,144 4,378,531 Madhepura 1,629,185 1,771,975 1,893,259 1,998,585 2,081,657 Saharsa 1,542,639 1,677,025 1,791,447 1,890,932 1,969,440 Supaul 1,831,217 1,989,112 2,123,935 2,241,413 2,334,227 Aurangabad 2,045,539 2,217,517 2,365,640 2,495,374 2,598,135 Gaya 3,329,998 3,612,324 3,854,977 4,067,136 4,235,019 Jehanabad 1,543,544 1,665,871 1,773,123 1,868,227 1,944,046 Nawada 1,872,349 2,039,415 2,180,821 2,303,160 2,399,435 Jamui 1,458,519 1,589,914 1,700,813 1,796,571 1,871,848 Khagaria 1,338,961 1,451,009 1,547,640 1,632,358 1,699,437 Munger 892, ,954 1,013,914 1,066,413 1,108,713 Lakhisarai 737, , , , ,867 Sheikhpura 484, , , , ,386 Begusarai 2,526,511 2,750,528 2,939,472 3,103,205 3,232,258 Bhojpur 1,962,784 2,037,349 2,126,896 2,219,427 2,298,385 Buxar 1,313,954 1,374,005 1,439,695 1,505,097 1,560,074 Kaimur 1,300,873 1,367,433 1,436,552 1,503,772 1,559,719 Patna 2,785,690 2,881,488 3,002,544 3,130,159 3,239,932 Rohtas 2,196,916 2,301,259 2,413,400 2,524,157 2,616,945 Nalanda 2,007,029 2,061,556 2,141,025 2,228,408 2,304,714 Araria 2,288,428 2,503,797 2,683,491 2,837,276 2,957,576 Katihar 2,430,614 2,645,693 2,828,277 2,986,512 3,111,136 Kishanganj 1,307,488 1,424,451 1,523,434 1,609,025 1,676,355 Purnia 2,629,219 2,880,244 3,088,877 3,266,910 3,405, The Journal of Family Welfare

14 Divisions & Districts Gopalganj 2,209,555 2,377,397 2,526,717 2,660,305 2,767,271 Saran 2,685,391 2,884,759 3,063,522 3,224,223 3,353,205 Siwan 3,358,616 3,615,781 3,843,991 4,047,815 4,210,879 East Champaran 4,072,999 4,405,364 4,694,186 4,948,732 5,151,015 Muzaffarpur 3,725,975 4,017,215 4,273,927 4,502,216 4,684,453 Sheohar 561, , , , ,158 Sitamarhi 2,849,075 3,112,575 3,333,405 3,523,064 3,671,722 Vaishali 2,772,371 2,986,716 3,176,318 3,345,316 3,480,379 West Champaran 3,038,369 3,297,811 3,520,276 3,714,497 3,868,071 TABLE 8B Projected total urban population of Districts of Bihar, Divisions & Districts Bhagalpur 506, , , , ,496 Banka 61,860 66,661 70,903 74,681 77,699 Darbhanga 291, , , , ,094 Madhubani 135, , , , ,973 Samastipur 113, , , , ,198 Madhepura 63,156 62,888 64,347 66,486 68,515 Saharsa 152, , , , ,375 Supaul 8,5013 8,6102 8, ,148 95,149 Aurangabad 199, , , , ,369 Gaya 536, , , , ,205 Jehanabad 133, , , , ,292 Nawada 163, , , , ,233 Jamui 118, , , , ,617 Khagaria 84,918 92,044 98, , ,828 Munger 328, , , , ,312 Lakhisarai 135, , , , ,739 Sheikhpura 89,093 95, , , ,527 Begusarai 86,520 80,498 79,729 81,078 82,896 Bhojpur 328, , , , ,552 Buxar 140, , , , ,593 Kaimur 47,575 52,306 56,211 59,516 62,084 Patna 2,134,255 2,291,281 2,432,441 2,559,584 2,661,737 Rohtas 329, , , , ,553 Nalanda 353, , , , ,547 Araria 146, , , , ,497 Katihar 240, , , , ,519 Kishanganj 143, , , , ,571 Purnia 257, , , , ,821 Vol. 55, No. 2, December

15 Divisions & Districts Gopalganj 147, , , , ,383 Saran 273, , , , ,802 Siwan 199, , , , ,356 East Champaran 294, , , , ,203 Muzaffarpur 381, , , , ,581 Sheohar 25,626 28,973 31,569 33,655 35,227 Sitamarhi 169, , , , ,026 Vaishali 207, , , , ,096 West Champaran 345, , , , ,993 Table 7B and 8B reveal the population size in rural and urban areas in different districts of Bihar during , respectively. In respect of rural population East Champaran may stand first followed by Madubani, Muzaffarpur, Samastipur and Siwan; whereas, the last position maybe held by Sheohar followed by Lakhisarai and Munger. Urban population of Patna district may hold the first position followed by Gaya, Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, and Nalanda; whereas, the last position may be held by Sheohar followed by Kaimur, Banka, and Madhepura. Conclusion The Ratio Method of projection adopted to project the district-wise populations may be considered as a technique which gives reasonably good estimates in the situation where detailed data on various components of population changes are not fully available and the fragmentary information like the ratio of the population of the smaller area (district) to that of the larger area (state) of which it is a part alone is known. The Ratio Method can be used with advantage for all practical purposes provided, of course, a reasonably acceptable population projection is available for the larger area of population change in these two areas are related. On the basis of projections done by the Expert Committee, the population of Bihar may increase from nearly 90.8 million (47.2 million males and 43.6 million females) in 2006, to nearly million (58.4 million males and 55.4 million females) in On the basis of this projection, for 37 districts of Bihar, Sheikhpura is a district which occupies the lowest rank for male, female and total population; whereas, Patna occupies the highest rank for total population, for male population and for female population for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, respectively. If division-wise projection for 2006 and 2026 is considered, in 2006 Tirhut would be placed at the first rank followed by Patna. Again, if bottom rank is considered, the two divisions; namely, Kosi and Bhagalpur will be 8th and 9th rank in 2006 and As people have a tendency to settle in areas which offer greater opportunities for earning a livelihood, better transport facilities due to development of railways and national highways, greater possibility of a comfortable living, development of new townships, government or cooperative efforts towards rehabilitation, industrial establishments, rural and urban characteristics, place of pilgrimage are other contributing factors. Accordingly, districts of Patna, Gaya and Muzaffarpur are better placed than the districts of Sheohar, Kaimur, Banka, which suffer from the drawbacks of possessing tracts of underdevelopment, remoteness, hilly regions and forest areas. 68 The Journal of Family Welfare

16 Thus, within Bihar wide disparity is prevalent among the districts with regard to the distribution of population, however, there are some districts such as Gopalganj and Siwan where the sex-ratio is in favour of females, probably because of the male dominant out-migration from the rural areas in these districts to other states in search of jobs. References 1. Registrar General of India, Government of India. Expert Committee population projection by agesex for period Districts Census Handbooks of Bihar for 1991 and 2001 Censuses. 3. Hagood, M.J. and Seigel, J.S. April Projections for the regional distribution of the population of the United States to 1975, 3(2): Techniques of demographic analysis, K.B. Pathak, and F. Ram (Eds.). Himalya Publishing House, Basic demographic techniques and applications. K. Srinivasan, Editor. Sage Publications, An introduction to the study of population. B.D. Mishra, Editor. South Asian Publishers Pvt. Ltd., Singh, J.P and Tiwary, D Population & health in Bihar (Figures at a glance). Population Research Centre, Department of Statistics, Patna University. 8. Registrar General of India Sample Registration System, Statistical Report Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi. 9. Registrar General of India Sample Registration System, Statistical Report Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi. 10. Registrar General of India Sample Registration System, Statistical Report Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi. Vol. 55, No. 2, December