From Goldrush to Collapse

Transcription

1 From Goldrush to Collapse Explaining Iceland s Financial Rise and Fall Stefán Ólafsson University of Iceland After the Goldrush Plenum lecture at a conference organized by the Faculty of Human and Social Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavík 27th-28th May 2010

2 The Biggest Bubble Economy Rise and Fall of the Stock Market The Icelandic Þróun úrvalsvísitölunnar Stock Market Index The Collapse: Stock market fell The currency fell Banks fell Government fell Depression set in

3 Inequality and Neo-Liberalism in USA Income share of top 10% - Source: E. Saez % 45% Top 10% Income Share 40% 35% 30% Excluding capital gains 25% Including capital gains

4 Policy and Power Shift from 1980s Influential group within the ruling Independence Party (IP) turned to neo-liberalism, from 1979 (Book: The Revolt of the Libertarians )... This involved a wholesale import of radical policy ideas from American neo-liberal think tanks Backed up by an army of visiting neo-liberal ideologues (Hayek, Friedman, Buchanan and others) Supported by employers and the most powerful daily newspaper. Economists generally supported it also. Put into practice by Oddson s IP-led governments, from 1991, but with increasing strength from 1995 onwards... Hailed in 2004 as the most successful neo-liberal experiment (beyond Thatcher, Pinochet and New Zealand!)

5 From Neo-liberalism to Bubble Economy New ideology >>> >>> >>> New environment Marketization of the fishing sector 1983 and1990 Neo-liberalist ideology stronger from 1995 to Full privatization of banks by 2003 was a turning point; Banks reign... Increasing influence of neoliberalism from early 1980s Increasing predominance in policy debates Freedom of capital movements from 1995 Emphasis: Marketization; Privatization; Shareholder value; Tax priviledges to firms and financiers; Laissez-faire prevails in government; Bonuses in banks; Deregulation; Market ethic and values rule suprime. Banks turned into speculation vehicles; Casino capitalism Easy access to cheap money on internat. Market; Debt accumulation sets in... Increased concentration of power in business, politics and media. World s biggest bubble economy becomes a reality

6 Main Cause of Crisis: Debt Accumulation 800 Iceland's gross foreign debt % of GDP % of GDP 2007 Oct Arthur Laffer says: No problem! Warnings issued The world s most indebted economy Privatiztion of banks finished Recession Privatiztion of banks begins Free flow of capital Banks went up to about 10 X GDP in size Sources: Historical statistics and Central Bank

7 Growing income inequality from 1995 Gini coefficients for disposable income (All taxpayers; all earnings counted; equivalized) Gini coefficients Source: Public Tax Authority

8 Size and Consequences of the Crisis Characeristics Central Bank of Iceland and IMF prognosis: 10% cut in GDP from Up to 20% cut in purchasing power Unemployment approaches 10% by end of 2009 Finland s crisis : About 14% cut in GDP About 7-8% cut in purchasing power Unemployment 17-18% at top

9 Economic growth Historical Context of the Crisis (real yearly growth) % -10% -8% -10% Yearly change Breyting VLF of á mann real frá fyrra GDP/per ári, % capita in %

10 Contraction of GDP in EU Iceland s Position (EU data March 2010) Iceland contrated by 6,5% in 2009 alone Source: Eurostat

11 1. Unemployment Consequences Prediction=10% by end of 2009

12 Unemployment in the EU in November 2009 % of labour force Unemployed as % of labour force Latvia Spain Estonia Lithuania Slovakia Turkey Ireland Hungary Croatia Portugal France USA Greece EU average Finland Poland Sweden Italia Belgium Czech Republic UK Iceland Bulgaria Germany Rumania Denmark Malta Slovenia Cyprus Luxembourg Austria Holland Norway Source: Eurostat

13 2. Level of Living Consequences

14 Purchasing power development Comparable setbacks % change % breyting between frá fyrra years ári % -15% -24% Heimildir: Sögulegar hagtölur Þjóðhagsstofnunar og Hagstofa Íslands %

15 3. Debt Consequences

16 Gross Government Debt - IMF forcast 2010

17 Total Debt Burden of Families Serious debt burden of indebted households April 2010 % which cannot make ends meet and % with very tight financial position All households Single parents Couples w. children Singles Couples, no children Can't make ends meet Very tight finances Total % in distress Source: Central Bank of Iceland Total Survey of Household Debts

18 4. Emigration risk

19 Net migration in Iceland Number of immigrants emigrants: Icelanders and foreigners Recession Iceland might loose 2 4% of population Icelandic citizens Foreign citizens

20 Social Protection Softens the Crisis Unemployment costs rise significantly Activation measures have been stepped up Minimum pensions were raised > Pensioners are now guaranteed to be above poverty line Taxes were cut for low income earners in 2010, raised for others. Further tax increases expected in Various measures to aid families in big debt Public expenditures face big cuts Biggest problems for families when unemployment goes with high debt level and reduced purchasing power. Biggest threat is political turmoil demagogy, splits and irresponsibility difficult to face issues

21 Politics: The Biggest Risk Factor Now Split within one government party Referendum on Icesave issue - A Farce Parliamentary investigation into the crash delivered in April Devastating Regular news of misdeeds General disillusion > Fragile conditions A period of political turmoil may follow

22 Thank you!