U.S. Economic and Construction Outlook

Transcription

1 U.S. Economic and Construction Outlook Presented by: Bernard M. Markstein, Ph.D. Markstein Advisors May 7, 2014 Airports Council International ACI-NA International Aviation Issues Seminar Washington, D.C. December 7, 2017

2 The U.S. Economy Markstein Advisors 2

3 Overview of the Economy Economy growing Employment growing --Near full employment? Inflation remains moderate, but increasing Federal Reserve raising interest rates: how high, how fast? Implications of tax reform Energy (oil) prices Markstein Advisors 3

4 Overview of the Economy Where are we headed with trade? Strong dollar: pluses & minuses Europe showing signs of improvement but total impact of Brexit is an unknown Markstein Advisors 4

5 Risks to the Economy (1/2) Approaching full employment? Tax reform Inflation/Interest rates (the Fed) Disruptions from increased tariffs/trade war China EU Brexit? Markstein Advisors 5

6 Risks to the Economy (2/2) Government shutdown? Energy (oil) prices European government debt default (Greece) The euro (Greece) Russia? Markstein Advisors 6

7 Construction Overview Markstein Advisors 7

8 Overview of Construction Construction Spending Components % 18% 32% 47% 29% 53% Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2002 Total - $849 Billion 2006 Total - $1,167 Billion Markstein Advisors Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8

9 Overview of Construction Construction Spending Components % 53% 33% 31% 29% 36% Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2006 Total - $1,167 Billion 2010 Total - $809 Billion Markstein Advisors Source: U.S. Census Bureau 9

10 Overview of Construction Construction Spending Components % 26% 53% 40% 29% 34% Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2006 Total - $1,167 Billion 2016 Total - $1,186 Billion Markstein Advisors Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10

11 Overview of Construction Construction Spending Components % 26% 47% 40% 32% 34% Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction 2002 Total - $848 Billion 2016 Total - $1,186 Billion Markstein Advisors Source: U.S. Census Bureau 11

12 Residential Construction Outlook $ Trillions Total Construction Spending History Forecast Source: History U.S. Census Bureau Markstein Advisors 12 Forecast Markstein Advisors

13 Overview of Construction 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 $ Billions Total Construction Spending History Forecast Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction Source: History U.S. Census Bureau Markstein Advisors 13 Forecast Markstein Advisors

14 Residential Construction Markstein Advisors 14

15 Residential Construction Outlook Residential Construction Spending $ Billions History Forecast Source: History U.S. Census Bureau Markstein Advisors 15 Forecast Markstein Advisors

16 Residential Construction Outlook Residential Construction Spending $ Billions 2006 to Single-Family Multifamily Improvements Source: History U.S. Census Bureau Markstein Advisors 16 Forecast Markstein Advisors

17 Nonresidential Building Construction Markstein Advisors 17

18 ACI-NA $ Billions Nonresidential Construction Nonresidential Construction Spending History Forecast Source: History U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast Markstein Advisors Markstein Advisors 18

19 Nonresidential Construction Nonresidential Construction Spending 120 $ Billions to Hotel/Lodging Office Commercial Source: History U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast Markstein Advisors Markstein Advisors 19

20 Nonresidential Construction Nonresidential Construction Spending 120 $ Billions to Manufacturing Healthcare Education Source: History U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast Markstein Advisors Markstein Advisors 20

21 Heavy Engineering Construction Markstein Advisors 21

22 Heavy Engineering Construction Heavy Engineering Construction Spending $ Billions History Forecast Source: History U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast Markstein Advisors Markstein Advisors 22

23 Heavy Engineering Construction Heavy Engineering Construction Spending 120 $ Billions to Highway Water and Sewer Conservation Source: History U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast Markstein Advisors Markstein Advisors 23

24 Heavy Engineering Construction Heavy Engineering Construction Spending 120 $ Billions to Transportation Communication Power Source: History U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast Markstein Advisors Markstein Advisors 24

25 Heavy Engineering Construction Transportation Construction Spending $ Billions History Forecast Source: History U.S. Census Bureau Markstein Advisors 25 Forecast Markstein Advisors

26 We do not have great highways because we are a great nation. We are a great nation because we have great highways. --DeWitt Greer, Chairman of the Texas Highways and Public Transportation Commission, Markstein Advisors 26

27 Contact Info and Links Bernard M. Markstein Office: LinkedIn Markstein Advisors 27