Testing A New Methodology For Exit Polling: A National, Panel-Based Experiment

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1 Testing A New Methodology For Exit Polling: A National, Panel-Based Experiment Conducted by The Associated Press-RC Center for Public Affairs Research Interviews: 10/31-11/8/2016 2,408 adults TE: weighted results show percentages among respondents who voted for Clinton, Trump, Johnson, or Stein (excluding those who voted for others or did not vote for president).

2 Q7. In today s election/the election for president, did you (just) vote for: SEX Pool Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Other 2 2 No vote 4 1 N= 2,408 24,675 2,314 24,558 Pool Male Female N= 2,408 24,620 2,314 24,503 AGE GROUP Pool TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size or over * N= 2,408 24,501 2,314 24,386

3 RACE/ETHNICITY Pool White Black * Hispanic/Latino Asian * Other N= 2,408 24,328 2,314 24,214 EDUCATION Pool High school or less Some college/assoc degree College graduate Postgraduate study N= 2,408 23,580 2,314 23,472 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 3

4 INCOME Pool Under $50, $50,000-$99, $100,000 or more * N= 2,408 9,125 2,314 9,087 PARTY ID Pool Democrat Republican * * Independent or something else N= 2,408 23,530 2,314 23,420 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 4

5 IDEOLOGY Pool Liberal Moderate Conservative N= 2,408 23,036 2,314 22,927 MARRIED Pool Yes No N= 2,408 9,507 2,314 9,465 WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN AGAIN Pool TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 5 White evangelical or white born-again Christian All others N= 2,408 4,831 2,314 4,806

6 RELIGION Pool Protestant * Catholic Mormon * Other Christian Jewish Muslim # # # # # # # # # # Other None N= 2,408 8,293 2,314 8,254 METRO/URBANICITY Pool Non-metro area Metro area City over 50, Suburbs Small city and rural N= 2,408 24,675 2,314 24,558 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 6

7 Q8. In today s election/the election for U.S. House of Representatives, did you (just) vote for: Pool The Democratic candidate The Republican candidate * Other, please specify Did not vote OMIT N= 2,408 23,613 2,314 23,029 Q9. Which best describes your feelings about the way the federal government is working? [HALF OF AMERISPEAK SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Enthusiastic # Satisfied, but not enthusiastic Dissatisfied, but not angry Angry OMIT # # # # # # N= 2,408 5,030 2,314 5,006 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 7

8 Q10. Do you expect life for the next generation of Americans to be: [AMERISPEAK: HALF SAMPLE ASKED FIRST TWO RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Better than life today Worse than life today About the same OMIT N= 2,408 4,926 2,314 4,902 Q11. In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of the presidential debates? [AMERISPEAK: HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool The most important factor * An important factor A minor factor Not a factor at all OMIT N= 1,654 4,207 1,588 4,190 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 8

9 Q12. Which one of these four issues is the most important facing the country? Pool Foreign policy Immigration The economy Terrorism * OMIT # N= 2,408 9,725 2,314 9,682 Q13. Which one of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? Pool Cares about people like me Can bring needed change Has the right experience * * Has good judgment OMIT N= 2,408 9,725 2,314 9,682 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 9

10 Q14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton: Pool Favorable * * Unfavorable OMIT # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 Q15. Is your opinion of Donald Trump: Pool Favorable * * * * Unfavorable OMIT # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 10

11 Q16. Do you think the condition of the nation s economy is: [AMERISPEAK: HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Excellent # 1 # # Good Not so good Poor OMIT # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,887 2,314 4,863 Q17. Do you think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy? Pool Yes 96 1 * * * # 98 1 * * No OMIT # 3 1 N= 2,408 4,887 2,314 4,863 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 11

12 Q18. Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy? Pool Yes * * No OMIT N= 2,408 4,887 2,314 4,863 Q19. When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Pool In the last few days In the last week In October In September * Before that OMIT N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 12

13 Q20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? [HALF OF AMERISPEAK SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove * OMIT # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 Q21. Do you think the country s criminal justice system: Pool Treats all people fairly * Treats blacks unfairly OMIT N= 2,408 4,782 2,314 4,758 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 13

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