Turnout Key in Close Race; Young Voters Favor Kerry
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1 ABC NEWS POLL: CAMPAIGN TRACKING #16 10/20/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 21, 2004 Turnout Key in Close Race; Young Voters Favor Kerry John Kerry has improved his standing among young voters recently, raising the stakes on the eventual turnout of this closely watched group. Among all likely voters, George W. Bush maintains a slight lead over Kerry, percent, in the latest ABC News tracking poll, the same as it s been the past two days. But Kerry has a sizable percent lead among young voters, age 18 to 29. That s much different than in the 2000 election, when young voters divided pretty much like everyone else 48 percent for Al Gore, 46 percent for Bush. If they stay in Kerry s corner, and turn out in large numbers, it could make the difference this year. Antipathy toward Bush rather than enthusiasm for Kerry looks to be a significant factor in young voters preferences. By percent, young likely voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. All likely voters, by contrast, now split, percent. 80% 70% Vote Preference and Bush Job Approval ABC News poll 60% 57% 59% 50% 51% 46% 50% 48% 40% 38% year-olds All likely voters 38% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3% 1% Bush Kerry Nader Approve Disapprove
2 Ideology also plays a role young adults are 11 points more likely than older likely voters to describe themselves as liberals. But pure partisanship is not the cause, since young adults are no more likely than their elders to identify themselves as Democrats. As noted, it s also not enthusiasm: Kerry in fact lags in enthusiasm among young people as he does among all likely voters. Just 35 percent of young people who support Kerry are very enthusiastic about his candidacy; by contrast, 55 percent of young voters who prefer Bush are very enthusiastic about him. (To expand the sample of young voters, much of this analysis is based on data aggregated from daily tracking polls since Oct. 1.) TURNOUT That soft enthusiasm about Kerry raises two questions. One is the constancy of young adults support; they have fairly consistently favored Kerry over Bush in ABC News tracking data since Oct. 1, but by varying margins; his lead now is the biggest it s been. Another is the question of turnout: Low enthusiasm can indicate a lack of motivation to get to the polls. 60% 51% 50% 46% 40% The 2004 Election Among Likely Voters ABC News and ABC/Washington Post polls 30% 7/25 8/1 8/29 9/8 9/26 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 Bush Kerry Nader 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/16 10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 There are turnout questions. Young likely voters account for 15 percent of all likely voters in this poll, which is close to their turnout, 17 percent, in 2000 and 1996 alike. They accounted for a bit more voters, 21 percent of the total, in the 1992 exit poll. But first they have to get to the polls. At this point, about a quarter of 18- to 29-year-old likely voters say they don t know where their polling place is (and very few say they ve already voted, or plan to vote absentee). Polling-place knowledge is higher among older likely voters. 1% 20% 10% 0%
3 Know location of polling place Yes No % ISSUES/ATTRIBUTES Young voters are about equally divided on the top issue in their vote for president Iraq and the economy and are less likely than voters overall to cite terrorism as their top issue. Twenty-seven percent of young voters choose Iraq as No. 1; 25 percent say it s the economy, and 14 percent pick terrorism. Iraq and the economy are also the top two issues for likely voters overall. Most important issue (among likely voters) Older Iraq 27% 24 Economy Terrorism Education 9 4 Health care 8 11 Other The draft is another issue. As reported in yesterday s tracking analysis, younger voters are more opposed to a possible draft than likely voters overall. And 40 percent of young voters think Bush would impose a draft, while only 24 percent think Kerry would. (Bush has said he would not re-impose a draft.) On candidate attributes, young voters look similar to all likely voters. They give a slight edge to Kerry as the candidate who understands people like them, but the lead to Bush on taking clear stands on the issues and strong leadership. Bush-Kerry (among likely voters) Older Understands 40-50% Clear stands Strong leader More honest METHODOLOGY This poll was conducted October among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,123 registered voters and 1,500 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently
4 applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Brian Hartman. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) , or Lisa Finkel, (212) Full results follow (*= less than 0.5 percent). 3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidate are you leaning toward? Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 10/20/ * * * 2 10/19/ * * * 2 10/18/ * * /17/ * * * 2 10/16/ * * * 2 10/14/ * 1 * 1 10/13/ * /12/ * /11/ * /10/ * /9/ * /8/ * /7/ * * /6/ /5/ /4/ * /3/ * 1 * 1 9/26/ * /8/ * /29/ * /1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op. 10/20/ * 1 * 3 10/19/ * 1 * 2 10/18/ * 1 * 3 10/17/ * 1 * 3 10/16/ * 1 * 3 10/14/ * 1 * 2 10/13/ * 2 * 2 10/12/ * 2 * 2 10/11/ * 1 * 2 10/10/ * 1 * 3 10/9/ * 2 * 3
5 10/8/ * 2 * 3 10/7/ * 2 * 2 10/6/ * 2 10/5/ * 1 * 2 10/4/ * 1 * 2 10/3/ * 1 * 2 9/26/ * 2 9/8/ * 2 * 2 8/29/ * 1 * 2 8/1/ * /25/ * 1 * 1 7/11/ /20/ * 1 * 1 5/23/ * /18/ * 2 1 * 3/7/ * Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin. 10/20/04 All LV RV /17/04 LV /16/04 LV /15/04 LV /3/04 LV /26/04 All LV RV /8/04 All RV /29/04 All RV /1/04 All RV /25/04 All RV /11/ /20/04 All RV /23/ /18/ /7/ /11/ /18/ /21/ /14/ /7/ /16/ /29/ /13/ /30/ /13/ /7/ /11/ /10/ /22/ /30/ /16/
6 4/9/ /3/ /23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/ /23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /17/ /9/ /19/ /21/ /28/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 ***END***
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