Course Overview J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 2
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1 How to Randomize
2 Course Overview 1. What is Evaluation? 2. Measurement & Indicators 3. Why Randomize? 4. How to Randomize? 5. Sampling and Sample Size 6. Threats and Analysis 7. Generalizability 8. Project from Start to Finish J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 2
3 How to Randomize Joe Doyle MIT
4 Lecture Overview What is randomization Simple Randomization Unit of Randomization Methods for different evaluation questions Real world challenges & design solutions J-PAL NAME OF PRESENTATION 4
5 Lecture Overview What is Randomization Simple Randomization Unit of Randomization Methods for different evaluation questions Real world challenges & design solutions J-PAL NAME OF PRESENTATION 5
6 Random Selection
7 Random Selection J-PAL W HAT IS EVALUATION 7
8 Random Selection Monthly income, per capita Population J-PAL W HAT IS EVALUATION 8
9 Random Selection Randomly sample from area of interest
10 Random Selection Monthly income, per capita Population Sample
11 Random Assignment Randomly assign to treatment
12 Random Assignment Monthly income, per capita Population Treatment
13 Random Assignment Randomly assign to treatment and control
14 Random Assignment Monthly income, per capita Population Treatment Control
15 Alternate methods of Randomization? J-PAL W HAT IS EVALUATION 15
16 If we took a random sample from the South of the city (bottom of the screen), and one from the North (top of the screen), in expectation, the difference in income will be statistically insignificant. A. True 50% B. False C. Don t know D. It depends 21% 21% 7% J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE A. B. C. D. 16
17 NOT Random Assignment J-PAL W HAT IS EVALUATION 17
18 NOT Random Assignment Monthly income, per capita Population Treatment Control
19 Lecture Overview What is Randomization Simple Randomization Unit of Randomization Methods for different evaluation questions Real world challenges & design solutions J-PAL NAME OF PRESENTATION 19
20 Simple randomization: Fixed probability For each member, set probability (e.g. 50%). Spot randomization Point-of-service randomization ID Coin 1 Heads T 2 Heads T 3 Tails C 4 Heads T 5 Tails C Treatment /Control 6 Heads T 7 Tails C 8 Tails C May end up with slightly more in one group and fewer in the other 9 Heads T 10 Heads T Count: T: 6 C: 4 J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 20
21 Complete randomization: Fixed proportion Need sample frame Determine number in treatment (and in control) Pull out of a hat/bucket -or- Use random number generator to order observations randomly Source: Chris Blattman J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 21
22 Lecture Overview What is Randomization Simple Randomization Unit of Randomization Methods for different evaluation questions Real world challenges & design solutions J-PAL NAME OF PRESENTATION 22
23 Unit of Randomization: Individual? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 23
24 Unit of Randomization: Individual? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 24
25 Unit of Randomization: Clusters? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 25
26 Unit of Randomization: Class? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 26
27 Unit of Randomization: Class? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 27
28 Unit of Randomization: School? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 28
29 Unit of Randomization: School? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 29
30 An education department wants to see if increasing the duration of recess can help reduce rates of obesity. What is the appropriate unit of randomization? A. Child level 56% B. Household level C. Classroom level D. School level E. Village level F. Don t know 22% 22% 0% 0% 0% J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE A. B. C. D. E. 30 F.
31 Lecture Overview What is Randomization Simple Randomization Unit of Randomization Methods for different evaluation questions Real world challenges & design solutions J-PAL NAME OF PRESENTATION 33
32 The department of agriculture believes that if farmers used more fertilizer yields would improve. One advisor believes organic fertilizer will be more effective; a second believes inorganic fertilizer is better; a third believes neither will be effective. Can we test all three beliefs within one single experiment? A. Yes, and we should B. No, they can only be answered with two separate experiments C. No they can only be answered with three separate experiments D. Yes, but best practice is to run separate experiments E. Don t know J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE A. B. C. D. 34E. 71% 0% 14% 0% 14%
33 Multiple treatments Treatment 1 Treatment 2 Control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 35
34 Reducing crime The newly elected governor is looking for strategies to lower crime A. Advisor A suggests crime is an economic phenomenon. The best strategy to fight crime is employment. He proposes job training B. Advisor B says criminals already have a choice to work, and can always make more money committing crimes. We need to take the choice away with more law and order. He proposes hiring more police officers to patrol the streets. C. Advisor C says we need to simultaneously raise the cost of committing crime by increasing the chances of getting caught. So more officers are needed. But many criminals don t see formal employment as a choice. We need to reduce the cost of finding a job. Job training is also needed. He claims a combined strategy will be more cost effective than each individual strategy by itself. J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 36
35 Advisor A: Job Training Advisor B: More police officers Advisor C: Combined strategy How many treatment arms should we use to test all three advisors hypotheses? A. 1 B. 2 C. 3 D. 4 E. 5 F. Don t know 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE A. B. C. D. E. 37 F.
36 Cross-cutting treatments: Factorial Design Performance-based pay Y N Group 1 Group 2 Cash Y Performance + Cash Cash Grants Group 3 Group 4 N Performance Control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 38
37 Cross-cutting treatments: Factorial Design J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 40
38 Cross-cutting treatments: Factorial Design J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 42
39 Cross-cutting treatments: Factorial Design J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 43
40 Varying intensity of treatment To Measure: Dosage Sensitivity Elasticity Spillovers J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 44
41 Varying intensity of treatment (individual) Dosage Sensitivity Elasticity J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 45
42 Varying intensity of treatment (individual) Spillovers General equilibrium J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 46
43 Lecture Overview What is Randomization Simple Randomization Unit of Randomization Methods for different evaluation questions Real world challenges & design solutions J-PAL NAME OF PRESENTATION 47
44 Real World Challenges What are the effects of foster care on child outcomes? J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 48
45 J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 49
46 To Test Housing Program, Some Are Denied Aid By Cara Buckley December 8, 2010 Half of the test subjects people who are behind on rent and in danger of being evicted are being denied assistance from the program for two years, with researchers tracking them to see if they end up homeless.
47 To Test Housing Program, Some Are Denied Aid By Cara Buckley December 8, 2010 It s a very effective way to find out what works and what doesn t, said Esther Duflo, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology... Everybody, every country, has a limited budget and wants to find out what programs are effective. The firm s institutional review board concluded that the study was ethical for several reasons, said Mary Maguire, a spokeswoman for Abt: because it was not an entitlement, meaning it was not available to everyone; because it could not serve all of the people who applied for it; and because the control group had access to other services.
48 Challenge 1: Difficult (logistically or politically) for Service Providers Service providers have trouble distinguishing between treatment and comparison (or customizing service) treatment comparison Services provided to both Crossovers: Control receives intervention (No longer represents pure counterfactual) J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 53
49 Solution 1a: Assign to Different Service Providers Service providers have trouble distinguishing between treatment and comparison (or customizing service) treatment comparison Have different teams provide the different treatments Randomly assign to those teams J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 54
50 Solution 1b: Randomize at a different unit Service providers have trouble distinguishing between treatment and comparison (or customizing service) treatment comparison Change the unit of random assignment Have providers treat entire clusters the same J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 55
51 Challenge 2a: Control group finds out about treatment If treatment and control individuals know each other, the control may get upset. treatment comparison Talks with friends (treatment and control) Friends in control group get upset with researchers or service providers Service providers may lose support of community J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 56
52 Challenge 2a: Control group finds out about treatment If treatment and control individuals know each other, the control may get upset. treatment comparison Talks with friends (treatment and control) Friends in control group get upset with researchers or service providers Service providers may lose support of community Attrition: Control withdraws participation from research J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 57
53 Challenge 2b: Control group benefits from treatment If treatment and control individuals know each other, the treatment may share benefits with control. J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 58
54 Challenge 2c: Control group benefits from treatment May change their behavior after seeing treatment True impact = 5 Measured impact = 0 Treatment group Control group Bad health Good health J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 59
55 Challenge 2d: Control group benefits from treatment Treatment group is harmed by control True impact = 5 Measured impact = 0 Treatment group Control group Bad health Medium health Good health Bacteria J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 60
56 Challenge 2e: Control group harmed by treatment If treatment and control individuals compete with each other, the control may be harmed. Without experiment With experiment Treatment group Control group J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 61
57 Solution 2a: Varying the unit to contain spillovers treatment comparison friends J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 62
58 Solution 2b: Creating a Buffer Not sampled J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 63
59 Challenge 3: Have resources to treat everyone. (Where s the control group?) But perhaps not all at once J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 67
60 Solution 3: Phase In J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 68
61 Phase 0: No one treated yet All control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 69
62 If you had enough resources to provide everyone what would you do? A. It s an important question, let s run the experiment anyway B. Give the control group an alternate treatment C. Scrap the experiment and look elsewhere D. Something else 0% 0% 0% 0% J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 70 A. B. C. D.
63 Phase 1: 1/4 th treated 3/4 ths control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 71
64 Phase 2: 2/4 ths treated 2/4 ths control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 72
65 Phase 3: 3/4 ths treated 1/4 th control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 73
66 Phase 4: All treated No control (experiment over) J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 74
67 Phase-in: Can be any level, any # of phases Phase 1: Half get treatment, half control J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 76
68 Phase-in: Can be any level, any # of phases Phase 2: Everyone is treated J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 77
69 Challenge 4: There s an eligibility criteria People Income J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 78
70 Challenge 4: There s an eligibility criteria Eligible Cut-off Ineligible People Income J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 79
71 Solution 4: Relax the eligibility criteria Eligible Cut-off New Cut-off Ineligible People Income J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 80
72 Solution 4: Randomize on the bubble Remain Eligible Cut-off New Cut-off Remain Ineligible Not in Study Study Sample Not in Study People Income J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 81
73 Challenge 5: Program is an entitlement Cannot force nor deny intervention
74 Challenge 5: Program is an entitlement Treatment Group Control Group
75 Solution 5: Encouragement Treatment Group Control Group J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 86
76 Solution 5: Encouragement Treatment Group Control Group 3/4 ths take-up 1/4 th take-up J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 87
77 To evaluate the effect of this program, you would first: A. Compare those who enrolled to those who didn t B. Drop those who didn t enroll from the treatment group C. Drop those who did enroll from the control group D. Both B&C E. Compare treatment group to entire control group 0% 0% 0% 33% 67% J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 88 A. B. C. D. E.
78 Solution 5: Encouragement Treatment Group Control Group 3/4 ths take-up 1/4 th take-up Compare Entire Treatment Group to Entire Control Group J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 89
79 Problem 6: Sample size is small J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 90
80 Solution 6a: Change the unit of randomization J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 91
81 Solution 6a: Change the unit of randomization J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 92
82 Solution 6b: Stratify Stratification by school J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 93
83 Recap on Challenges Challenge Implication Solution Service provider can t distinguish between T & C Control group finds out, benefits or is harmed Resources to treat all Strict eligibility criteria Program is an entitlement Sample size is small Crossovers Change Unit of Randomization Create a buffer Spillovers Crossovers Attrition No control group Can t be randomized Can t force/deny program Insufficient power Change Unit of Randomization Create a buffer Phase in Randomization on the bubble Encouragement Design Change unit of randomization Stratification J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 100
84 The end Appendix J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 101
85 Methods of randomization - recap Design Most useful when Advantages Disadvantages Basic Lottery Program oversubscri bed Familiar Easy to understand Easy to implement Can be implemented in public Control group may not cooperate Differential attrition J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 102
86 Methods of randomization - recap Design Most useful when Advantages Disadvantages Phase-In Expanding over time Everyone must receive treatment eventually Easy to understand Constraint is easy to explain Control group complies because they expect to benefit later Anticipation of treatment may impact short-run behavior Difficult to measure long-term impact J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 103
87 Methods of randomization - recap Design Most useful when Advantages Disadvantages Rotation Everyone must receive something at some point Not enough resources per given time period for all More data points than phase-in Difficult to measure long-term impact J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 104
88 Methods of randomization - recap Design Most useful when Advantages Disadvantages Encouragement Program has to be open to all comers When take-up is low, but can be easily improved with an incentive Can randomize at individual level even when the program is not administered at that level Measures impact of those who respond to the incentive Need large enough inducement to improve take-up Encouragement itself may have direct effect J-PAL HOW TO RANDOMIZE 105
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