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1 Huntley, B., Collingham, Y. C., Singarayer, J. S., Valdes, P. J., Barnard, P., Midgley, G. F.,... Ohlemüller, R. (2016). Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: Climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years. Journal of Biogeography, 43(5), DOI: /jbi Peer reviewed version License (if available): CC BY-NC Link to published version (if available): /jbi Link to publication record in Explore Bristol Research PDF-document This is the author accepted manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Wiley at Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher. University of Bristol - Explore Bristol Research General rights This document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. Full terms of use are available:

2 Journal of Biogeography SUPPORTING INFORMATION Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: Climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years Brian Huntley, Yvonne C. Collingham, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, Phoebe Barnard, Guy F. Midgley, Res Altwegg and Ralf Ohlemüller Appendix S1 Supplementary tables and figures Table S1: Response surface models for biome extents... 1 Table S2: Southern African bird species for which response surface models could not be fitted... 2 Figure S1: Biomes of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland... 3 References cited

3 Table S1: Response surface models for biome extents Biome Correlation Coefficient TOTDRYINT Model TOTWETINT Model Desert Succulent Karoo Nama Karoo Fynbos Albany Thicket Grassland Savanna Forest Indian Ocean Coastal Belt Pearson product moment correlation coefficients (n = 538; p < in all cases) between the recorded extents of each biome in 0 5 grid cells falling at least partially within South Africa, Lesotho and/or Swaziland and their present extents as simulated using response surface models fitted using four bioclimatic variables (mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months, estimated annual ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and annual total intensity of either the dry (TOTDRYINT) or wet (TOTWETINT) seasons). 1

4 Table S2: Southern African bird species for which response surface models could not be fitted Scientific name Common name Endemic status Movement category Likely reason model could not be fitted Campethera scriptoricauda Speckle-throated Woodpecker Resident Agapornis lilianae Lilian's Lovebird Mobile Falco ardosiaceus Grey Kestrel Resident Alethe fuelleborni White-chested Alethe Mobile Cichladusa ruficauda Rufous-tailed Palm-Thrush Resident Sheppardia gunningi East Coast Akalat Resident Estrilda thomensis Cinderella Waxbill Near-endemic Mobile No records from the SABAP region; elsewhere in southern Africa, relatively common in Mozambique. Recorded in the SABAP data from only 26 grid cells on the margin of the SABAP region in northernmost Zimbabwe. Recorded in the SABAP data only from 6 grid cells on the margin of the SABAP region in northernmost Namibia. No records from SABAP region; known from southern Africa only in central Mozambique. Recorded in the SABAP data only from 7 grid cells on the margin of the SABAP region in northernmost Namibia. No records from the SABAP region; elsewhere in southern Africa, locally common in southern Mozambique. Recorded in the SABAP data only from 6 grid cells on the margin of the SABAP region in extreme north-western Namibia; otherwise only in western Angola. The seven species for which response surface models could not be fitted are listed in taxonomic order (following Hockey et al., 2005). The likely reason a model could not be fitted is indicated in each case. In three cases, although included in the SABAP species list the species has not been recorded from the SABAP atlas region; each of the other four species is recorded only from extremely marginal grid cells of the SABAP region, and in three cases in only seven or fewer grid cells (Harrison et al., 1997). 2

5 Figure S1: Biomes of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland Potential natural vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland at the biome level (data from Mucina & Rutherford, 2006). 3

6 References cited Harrison, J.A., Allan, D.G., Underhill, L.G., Herremans, M., Tree, A.J., Parker, V. & Brown, C.J. eds) (1997) The atlas of southern African birds. BirdLife South Africa, Johannesburg. Hockey, P.A.R., Dean, W.R.J. & Ryan, P.G. eds) (2005) Roberts birds of southern Africa, VIIth Edition edn. The Trustees of the John Voelcker Bird Book Fund, Cape Town. Mucina, L. & Rutherford, M.C. eds) (2006) The Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. South African National Biodiversity Institute, Pretoria. 4