Metapopulation modelling, application in landscape assessments, and dealing with climate change
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1 Metapopulation modelling, application in landscape assessments, and dealing with climate change Jana Verboom (& Paul Opdam, Rogier Pouwels, Rene Jochem, Hans Baveco, Claire Vos) Landscape Centre Alterra
2 Contents Modelling philosophy: mechanistic models and simple tools for assessments (Example 1: LARCH) Example 2: EURURALIS study Example 3: FATE model chain
3 1. Mechanistic models and simple tools for assessments: Mechanistic models are used to find thresholds, rules of thumb and standards, these are combined with ecological knowledge of species (habitat preferences, home range size, dispersal distance etc.) into landscape assessment tools. Verboom, J., Foppen, R., Chardon, P., Opdam, P., Luttikhuizen, P., Introducing the key patch approach for habitat networks with persistent populations: an example for marshland birds. Biological Conservation 100: Vos, C.C.; J. Verboom; P. F. M. Opdam; and C. J. F. Ter Braak Toward Ecologically Scaled Landscape Indices. American Naturalist. Jan Vol. 157, pp Opdam, P., Verboom, J., Pouwels, R, Landscape cohesion: an index for the conservation potential of landscapes for biodiversity. Landscape Ecology 18:
4 METAPHOR (i-based metapopulation model) SCENARIOS (land cover) SmallSteps (i-based random walk model) LARCH (static model for biodiversity assessment) ECONET (patch-based metapopulation model) biodiversity assessments Ecological data SMART/SUMO NTM, MOVE
5 Indicator species chosen for national study (LARCH) Acrocephalus schoenobaenus acrsch Sedge Warbler small bird Marshland Anthus campestris antcam Tawny Pipit small bird Heathland Botaurus stellaris botste Bittern large bird Marshland Clethrionomys glareolus clegla Bank Vole small mammal Woodland Clossiana selene closel Small Pearl-Bordered Fritillary butterfly area Marshland Dendrocopos medius denmed Middle Spotted Woodpecker medium bird Woodland Hipparchia semele hipsem Grayling butterfly area Heathland La ce rta a gilis la ca gi Sa nd Liza rd re ptile a re a He a thla nd Lullula arborea lularb Wood Lark medium bird Heathland Lutra lutra lutlut Otte r la rge ma mma l Ma rshla nd Martes martes marmar Pine Marten large mammal Woodland Microtus oeconomus micoec Root Vole small mammal Marshland Oenanthe oenanthe oenoen Wheatear small bird Heathland Parus cristatus parcri Crested Tit small bird Woodland Picus viridis picvir Green Woodpecker medium bird Woodland Plebejus argus plearg Silver-Studded Blue butterfly area Heathland Sitta e uropa e a site ur Nutha tch me dium bird W oodla nd Vipera berus vipber Adder reptile area Heathland
6 Sand lizard habitat
7 Sand lizard habitat classification No carrying capacity Too small Key Patch MVP
8 Sand lizard viability No viability Very low viability Low viability Medium viability High viability
9 Sand lizard spatial cohesion
10 Sand lizard probability of occurrence Low Medium High
11 Low Medium High Comparing three scenarios (SAND LIZARD) Current situation
12 Otter habitat
13 Low Medium High Comparing three scenarios (OTTER) Current situation
14 Nuthatch habitat
15 Low Medium High Comparing the three scenarios (NUTHATCH) Current situation
16 Botste Antcam Acrsch Plearg Picvir Parcri Oenoen Micoec Marmar Lutlut Lularb Lacagi Hipsem Denmed Closel Clegla Vipber Siteur 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 Statistics for all species, 3 scenario s huidig SS OBS
17 Example 2: EURURALIS study
18 EURURALIS: static biodiversity algorithm Scenarios, current land use/land cover GTAP/LEITAP (global trade analysis) IMAGE (integrated model to assess global environment) CLUE (conversion of land use and its effects) Land use/land cover maps Disturbance, N- deposition etc. Simple species-area relationship Biodiversity indicator
19 Dynamic aspects of climate change Time lag: dispersal limitation Increased environmental stochasticity Future distribution of suitable habitat Current distribution of suitable habitat Time lag: extinction debt Application: is national ecological network climate proof?
20 Example 3: FATE approach Scenario: climate, land use, deposition hydrological / soil / vegetation model WATBAL- SMART - SUMO abiotic conditions: water, ph, nutrients vegetation structure spatial configuration of habitat types response surface model (vegetation) NTM3, NTM4, MOVE metapopulation model (fauna) LARCH-habitat module potential floral diversity potential faunal diversity dispersal model (vegetation) DIMO dispersal model (fauna) LARCH- extended, Gridwalk/Smallsteps integrated actual biodiversity N and GHG exchange/ fluxes CO 2, N 2 O, CH
21 Future: Climate & weather scenarios SMART SUMO LARCH METAPHOR vegetation suitability metapopulation dynamics New climate proof static model (LARCH extended) for biodiversity assessments
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