Theme 3: Supporting the opportunities in the EU robotics sector: inputs for an industrial policy for robotics
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1 Competitiveness in Emerging Robot Technologies (CEROBOT) The opportunities in safety and robots for SMEs Theme 3: Supporting the opportunities in the EU robotics sector: inputs for an industrial policy for robotics Simon Forge Colin Blackman SCF Associates Ltd No reproduction without permission Simon All rights Forge reserved 2010 SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
2 The state of the today s (industrial) robotics industry The market for conventional industrial robotics for large-scale automated manufacturing is becoming saturated - limited room for future growth With the financial crisis, world robot sales to manufacturing industry have shrunk by perhaps by 30%. The conventional industrial robot s accompanying safety market aimed at larger enterprise implementations also likely to be static / shrink Demand for current types of large industrial robot over the next five years likely to stagnate - demand in global economy only recovering slowly from financial crisis Consumer demand may continue in a difficult phase for some years in the OECD countries, which are still the main customers for mass-produced consumer goods and the types of industry that industrial robotics typically serve (car and trucks, white goods, electronics, etc). Whether demand in the developing world, the source of much consumer manufacturing and components, will compensate for OECD slowdown is unclear. Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
3 What is the potential future trajectory of the European robotics industry? Consequently, the robotics industry needs new market directions. As examined over the preceding two presentations, there is an emerging potential market for a safe, soft SME robot (SSSR). Potential for success is is based on the identification of a real application the safe soft Robot combined with a real demand - the SME market s need for a coworker that can safely share the same workspace. Consequently, we focus on this opportunity segment highlighted by early EU research into safe, soft robots for the SME and others. BUT - what is Europe s competitive position, and its gaps? Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
4 Estimated future performance of major production centres Feature Market share Market Growth as growth rate in domestic market and exports Qualified workforce numbers R&D expenditure in the sector and IPR holdings Innovation potential Costs to manufacture Commercialisation potential - industrialisation Strengths of clusters of users and suppliers Japan May remain dominant; might be eroded by EU Low until domestic service robot takes off Growing Growing from high base /high Europe Likely to grow - may depend on SSSR / adjacent segments success Low/ may depend on SSSR / adjacent segments success Growing slowly Growing from medium/high base /low (E. Europe) Low needs to improve - sporadic Static growth (military with spin-offs) Low/ variable (Detroit) / very high Variable Taiwan high Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved USA Static (dominant in military and space) Static (except military and space) Korea growth growth from low base growth educational efforts strong growth from relatively low base Low China &Taiwan growth in components and at low-end; less likely in SME growth from low base at low-end of market Likely to grow very quickly growth from low base Lowest
5 Evaluation of the global position of the EU across the value chain segments Value chain link R&D and IPR for the key technologies Commercial industrialisation of key technologies from basic R&D eg sensor integration, positioning systems, new mechanicals, new materials, cognitive processing.. Manufacturing process to build robots Supply chain for components, for robotics in general The ecosystem, a series of links - technology, systems integration, mechatronic know-how, etc Systems integration and associated activities to introduce robots and prepare production environments Support services education and training White label manufacturing of complete robots and component devices - sub-contracted/ outsourced Distribution and channels map (direct sales, branded wholesale, white label, integrator and VAR channels) Marketing communications and demonstrators via industry associations, regional activities, local and regional government for both end-users and suppliers Likelihood of EU success*, but EU must still licence some Asia, with strong government co-ordtn, then EU and USA Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved Low Low Added value Likely leader globally Possibly Japan in technology licensing but EU & USA close Unclear EU possibly but USA & Japan also likely No real leader Asian suppliers Must be local to enduser - EU equals RoW Must be local to enduser - EU strong in clusters Must be local to enduser - EU strong clusters Asian suppliers USA, possibly EU; overseas suppliers competitive in EU
6 Competitive global comparison of industrial infrastructure for SSSRs multi-dimensional mapping on cross-regional parameters Strength of industrial ecosystem and enduser/ supplier clusters Hi Med Med China Hi Korea Taiwan Regulatory development (Low/medium/high) Japan EU USA Strength in moving robotics technology from innovation to mass production (non-military) Low Low Low Med Hi Intellectual capital IPR/ patents, R&D, capabilities in design & engineering knowledge Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
7 Competitive global comparison for production of SSSRs (safe soft SME robots) multi-dimensional mapping on cross-regional parameters Strengths in systems integration in local market, with software and bespoke sub-assemblies for robot installation, and SME education Hi Med Med Taiwan China Hi USA Korea Japan EU Production of safety and related components (Low/medium/high) Industrial capability for manufacturing robots (non-military) Low Low Low Med Hi Market presence - own- brand strength in main global markets Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
8 Probability of EU success with a new robot type With suitable incentives and support, the likelihood of innovation by EU technology suppliers for the SSSR as a commercial product is reasonable This is especially true if:- An open common platform can be quickly established, as the basis on which to build the many custom requirements for the SME can be arrived at quickly. An open common platform may drive EU capability to bring innovations to market quickly, Such factors might increase the IPR holdings in specialised applications and equipment built on top of the common design of an SME robot platform. Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
9 Opportunity segments in the SME markets Near term/ term future - competition at a global level in current market segments for industrial SMEs. term/ Long term - move into adjacent key growth areas for the SME segment, where use of robots in co-working applications are likely to be attractive: Food and drink sector: the largest demand in the SME segment may be for the food industry, Europe's largest industry, with over 90% of EU players being SMEs. The major opportunity in safe soft robots is in SMEs in the food industry, for small batches of food preparation and harvesting - eg a sandwich-making robot, to be made and marketed. Environmental industries: eg solar panel manufacturing, and wind turbines Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology : with a majority of SMEs, likely to be future users of robots which can co-work with human researchers and process operators, useful for small batch runs (specifically for testing in volume rapidly and accurately). Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
10 Second growth spur - adjacent segments to SMEs The quest for completely human robots is fraught with difficulty owing to their complexity, expense and acceptability: Here, Europe has opportunity to be a global player, making simpler service robots for export to a domestic service robot market, possibly capitalising on Asian obsessions with anthropomorphism for: Care of the elderly Healthcare and medical applications Domestic service market, eventually Professional services market for cheaper robots using SME-type industrial robotics technology, eg for inspection and surveillance of infrastructure (sewers etc), logistics, security, specialist niches eg cleaning and de-icing aircraft Co-workers also needed in industrial segments for larger companies outside the SME market - manufacturing, logistic, etc - handling and helper tasks In general, use domestic EU markets as the base for early sales and future exports. Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
11 A techno-commercial roadmap for a Safe soft SME Robot Degree of take-up Mainstream (most SMEs in all sectors no longer competitive edge) Pacing (leading SMEs in all sectors for competitive edge) First co-working commercial soft robot Integrated collision avoidance and simple programming commercially available First standardised ISO SSSR design platform with open source base HRI for untrained personnel -simple spoken instructions with reasonable rate of understanding for commands Commercial domestic service versions appear for safe use by the elderly First half of Asimov s first law met in commercial robots - not to harm humans Asimov s first law, second half, met in commercial robots to not to allow a human to come to harm by inaction - ie- contextual understanding with deductive logic of implications in real time Emerging (early adopters) Professional service versions Implementation of first effective safety policies for co- working with humans No systems integration needed for the majority of uses 70% of SMEs can use the SSSR out of the box via its simple programming and tool integration Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
12 Comparing international product strategies Japan Europe USA Korea China & Taiwan Today s market Industrial robots now, B2B market most important Main market industrial, B2B, domestic service robot market less important Defence (& space) robots. Some industrial robot production; many imported. Strong S/I Industrial robots now, wider applications yet to come Assemble all the cheapest (service) robots today, for export Tomorrow (2015/2020) Future service robots for elderly care if major advances can be made Future SME market; co-worker market on larger enterprises; professional services; domestic service robots for elder care and healthcare Remains largely military market with industrial and domestic service. Some spend on elderly care Industrial robots and service robots developed for domestic market then for export. Some spend on elderly care Expand in industrial types. Make all low-end robots as white label source and all minor components Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
13 SWOT analysis of the position of the EU in robotics Strengths Well established and forward looking large manufacturers Significant pre-competitive R&D expenditure at EU and national levels Innovation high, in clusters Strong systems integration capability Strong software capability Some technologies well developed and commercialised, as complete sub-systems, eg safety products, vision systems Weaknesses Education, personnel training, apprenticeships Small business preparation for robots Moving from innovation to implementation Commercialisation of innovative technology development IPR holdings could be stronger Too few clusters still nascent Not competitive in base components for robotics (sensors and actuators) and electronics largely sourced from overseas Not competitive in low-end and white label mass production Opportunities Seed new robotic industry segment in the EU Long-term build of new market for industrial SMEs Increase productivity for SMEs Restore manufacturing of all kinds to be a growth industry in the EU Threats Rejection by SMEs if product is found to be unsafe, or its co-worker functionality too low Unable to bring innovation n to market new opportunity taken by others Not enough skilled workforce- lack of education Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
14 Key policy issues facing the industry Raising the demand levels in SMEs, ie the issues of awareness of SMEs and their education levels about use of robotics (via the clusters or via other means). How to concretely go to the next stage, ie after awareness and education how to create and nurture an SME market at a base level, how to nurture clusters? How to move from idea to product, ie more support for the industrialisation phase for new robotics technology and products after innovation as this is a key European weakness. In contrast it is well covered in the Asian innovative support process and by the USA s military to civilian transfer (eg the irobot instance). Low level of intellectual capital in terms of the EU workforce, ie the issue of how to generate more degree-level educated graduates in robotics and faster for greater numbers of qualified engineers, technicians and researchers. Current lack of venture capital support in today s and tomorrow s financial climate, required for increased seeding of innovative start-ups (note that Robotdalen relies heavily on the national initiative in Sweden for innovation, Vinnova). Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
15 Gap analysis highlights the policy needs More clusters to introduce and nurture SME end-users An education programme for more qualified engineering graduates and technicians More support for the industrialisation phase after innovation Training support for SMEs Increased likelihood of innovation with venture capital support This leads us to not only assess of the strength of the EU but also competitive behaviour which acts as guide for policy formulation. Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
16 Ten policy recommendations for developing a safe soft SME robot industry in the EU, with an SME customer base 1.Cluster strategy: support the SME end user and innovative new suppliers Robotdalen clustering 2.Support for industrialisation post-innovation following on from the first working prototype into industrialised models and commercial production 3.Education for robotics engineers: long-term strategy - pay off in 5 to 10 years - combined degree 4.Education of the SME end-users with promotion and marketing communications to stimulate demand and training support for SMEs. 5.Build an eco-system: Education of systems integrators, with awareness, then training courses to build a support ecosystem for SMEs. This will construct a strong S/I industry of knowledge workers, with high skill content in both introducing robots and vertical applications, driving high-tech jobs Support for the VARs, ISVs, and channels to market for the robot suppliers build a European channels map. Encouragement of technology suppliers (eg machine vision) through the cluster strategy. 6.Encouraging competition in robot suppliers and technology innovators with support for new entrants, start-ups and high-risk ventures. 7.Financial incentives for innovative R&D in key areas, eg mechanicals, materials, cognitive studies, signal processing. 8.Show SMEs and others via demonstrator projects. 9.SME and applications library with open source software for SSSRs (cf Willow Garage - Google). 10.Support extension of the SME soft safe robot segment into the domestic service segment and industrial professional services segment - support start-up ventures and post-innovation Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
17 For comparison - example of support actions to build a robotics industry, by the Taiwanese government ministries Tax Incentives investment tax credit for shareholders, or 5-year tax exemption for emerging, important, and strategic industries Personnel training expenditures (business income tax credit based on 35% of all training expenditures in the same year) R&D expenditures (business income tax credit based on 35% of all R&D expenditure in the same year) Accelerated depreciation of facilities (maximum depreciation period: 2 years) Tax credit for the purchase of facilities and technology investment Tax-exemption for imported components Tax incentives for technology transfers or cooperation Incentives for the establishment of operations headquarters Low-Interest Loans Industrial R& D Loans Low-interest loans for mid- and long-term capital Project loans for small and medium enterprises Bank drafts and loan preferences for development Low-interest loans for science parks R&D Subsidies - a series of defined programmes Industrial Technology Development Program Small Business Innovation Research Program Industrial Technology Development Alliance Program Strategic Service-Oriented Industry R&D Program Information Technology Applications Program Industrial Technology Innovation Centre Program for Local Enterprises Industrial Technology Innovation Centre Program for Foreign Enterprises Leading Innovative Product Development Program Enterprise R&D Alliance Program Enterprise Operation Headquarters Service Personnel Training International expert recruitment R&D alternative service - R& D substitute service program office Military training service application Source: Intelligent Robotics Industry: Analysis & Investment Opportunities, Department of Investment Services, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan Government, 2008 Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
18 Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
19 In summary - policy actions to deliver 1. Build support for SMEs - the real opportunity as well as the robotics industry itself policy actions should be aimed at the demand side, not just supply side. This includes understanding the bridge between the two, ie exploiting the role of the multiple channels to market in the SME segment, because the bridge between supply and demand is a key enabler. 2. Develop a skilled base of researchers through supporting higher and further education courses relevant to robotics. Foster collaboration between universities and Europe s leading robot manufacturers. 3. Put marketing focus on the largest unexploited SME opportunities (eg food processing, high technology as well as traditional manufacturing). 4. Concentrate policy actions on the top layer of added value design and engineering and a more intense focus on production, including materials and sub-assemblies, while accepting that basic electro-mechanical and electronic components are likely to be sourced globally and not form part of the European value chain. This is a strategy of accepting weaknesses where a local solution is not viable but reinforcing the strengths. 5. Encourage re-use and transfer of the same SSSR technology for the longer term into adjacent sectors, eg professional and domestic services. 6. Build up the domestic market first, as the basis for subsequent global exports. 7. Invest in a common open technology platform that can be used across industrial applications and into new segments, to help build the ecosystem. Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd All rights reserved
Theme 2: The new paradigm in robotics safety
Competitiveness in Emerging Robot Technologies (CEROBOT) The opportunities in safety and robots for SMEs Theme 2: The new paradigm in robotics safety Colin Blackman Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd Safety
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