Air Traffic Soft. Management. Ultimate System. Call Identifier : FP TREN-3 Thematic Priority 1.4 Aeronautics and Space

Transcription

1 En Route Air Traffic Soft Management Ultimate System Call Identifier : FP TREN-3 Thematic Priority 1.4 Aeronautics and Space EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre EUROCONTROL Innovative Research Workshop December, Marc Brochard (DSNA - Honeywell Linköping univ Patras univ - SICTA)

2 2 Contents Rational Objectives Potential impacts Consortium Project plan Back to content

3 3 Rational I The ACARE Strategic Research Agenda (SRA II) and its Vision 2020 foresees a doubling, if not a tripling of traffic in the 15 years to come. There is clear need for: more capacity; more efficiency; more safety. This group stresses that ATM system will not be able to cope with this increase if no radical changes are performed. Several fields of improvement require urgent investigations: more automation for the ATM; shifting responsibilities from ground to the air.

4 4 Rational II Automation for ATM is reaching a strong barrier for many reasons: existing legacy system and difficulties for change; uncertainty and poor accuracy of data; ATCo cognitive process badly known; so far aiming at replacing the human being by the machine; poor common use of proven technologies such as Precision Area Navigation (P-RNAV), air/ground communication facilities, airborne flight management system (FMS) already widely used by airlines. We could imagine automation in a way of: improving air ground cooperation; reducing uncertainty (and not removing it); seeking for human being and machine cooperation.

5 5 Contents Rational Objectives Potential impacts Consortium Project plan Back to content

6 6 Objectives ERASMUS project proposes an air-ground cooperative work aiming at defining and validating innovative automation and concepts of operations for the En-route phase. The goal is to propose an advanced automation while maintaining the controllers in the decision loop. Three majors applications are proposed to be investigated: subliminal control; ATC autopilot ; Enhanced Medium Term Conflict Detection (MTCD).

7 7 Objectives subliminal control Slight variation in aircraft speed or rate of climb can be sufficient to prevent a latent conflict (15 in advance a difference of some 2%, less than 10 knots, in speeds could change a conflict into a non conflict ). Such accuracies are far out of reach of the controller (perception) sensorial picking and mental computing. The subliminal control could automatically remove conflict by minor alterations of the speeds or rate of climb with no human being intervention The innovation is: to use the machine not to solve conflict but to de-conflict the air situation (advanced MSP function with automatic and minor adjustments); to apply changes not directly perceivable by the human being; to be able to overwrite any subliminal changes at any time: keep ultimate control; not to conflict with ATCo and pilot own actions and responsibilities; to use existing and proven air/ground data-link facilities and to transform the current open loop into a closed loop ATC - computer-to-computer clearances delivery.

8 8 Objectives ATC autopilot Derived current cockpit autopilot enabling aircraft attitude, trajectory and level control to be delegated to the FMS (minor automatic trajectory adjustment not always perceivable by the pilot), in the ATC domain. To delegate subliminal problem resolution actions to the machine on case by case basis (under the control of the human being) The innovation is: to use the machine to solve conflict; to be able to overwrite any subliminal changes at any time: keep ultimate control; not to conflict with ATCo and pilot own actions and responsibilities; to use existing and proven air/ground data-link facilities and to transform the current open loop into a closed loop ATC - computer-to-computer clearances delivery.

9 9 Objectives enhanced MTCD Derived ERATO concept by associating computer agenda (computed from all data available via the best ground and airborne computing capabilities) to the controller agenda (representing the controller s mental picture based on fuzzy logic and incomplete data). To provide aircraft conflicts/problems information taking into account the most accurate data, and the controller cognitive processes. The innovation is: to enrich MTCD information with ATCo cognitive logic and more accurate trajectory prediction; to use existing and proven air/ground data-link facilities.

10 10 Objectives 3 applications Full automation path Low Machine High Sublimal control Enhanced MTCD decision Low Auto ATC Low High Human decision (ultimate control in any cases)

11 11 Objectives deliverables Project objectives will be materialised by: Definition of concepts of operations for the air and ground sides; Definition of the operational scenarios (advanced tools, working methods); Detailed specification and design of the prototype (advanced tools, working methods); Definition of the validation plan and experimental plan (E-OCVM applied); Assessment and refinement of the hypothesis and proof of concept in term of safety, efficiency, capacity, security and economy; Clearly identified quantified benefits in safety, efficiency, capacity, security, economy; Identification of the transition issues and implementation plan.

12 12 Contents Rational Objectives Potential impacts Consortium Project plan Back to content

13 13 Potential impacts A better knowledge of the air and ground trajectory prediction: assessing if the spectacular accuracy of GPS and CNS capabilities would increase the accuracy of the knowledge of the past/present positions and speeds of an aircraft; knowing the statistical distribution of the position forecasts and defining the required accuracy and integrity of the positions prediction. An ATC Modelling assessment: using the air and ground data accuracy results, an ATC mathematical model should evaluate the ability to a priori estimate for each case the probability of success of the trajectory prediction and the proportion of successful subliminal action. Safety: assessing the safety of the automated processes themselves and of any subset, since it would be impossible to rely on any real time return back to the controller of any such transferred responsibility. Working methods and modus operandi (for subliminal control, ATC autopilot, and enhanced MTCD): considering cognitive needs and data accuracy capabilities, defining working methods and tools specifications.

14 14 Potential impacts What are the meteorological prediction capabilities? What are the aircraft speed margins of manoeuvre and constraints? What are the trajectory performance between the air and the ground? How to use a better FMS trajectory prediction capabilities in order to decrease the number of real conflicts and at which time horizon? How to use the controller cognitive model and technology capabilities to support different applications? How to present the relevant traffic situation information (conflict detection) in accordance with the controller cognitive model? How these new capabilities will allow to increase the ATC sector capacity? What is the safety impact of such applications in order to define nominal and degraded mode? Which mode are acceptable to a controller and a pilot? What are the other impacts (efficiency, cost-benefits)?

15 15 Contents Rational Objectives Potential impacts Consortium Project plan Back to content

16 16 Consortium - Partners 1 EUROCONTROL - Consortium leader - 4 University of Linköping 2 DSNA (former DNA) 3 HONEYWELL 6 SICTA 5 University of Patras

17 17 Consortium - Management Consortium company Executive Manager Contract manager Company resources Users forum Project coordinator Dissemination Manager Users representatives - Executive body Project Management Committee EC project officer Project coordinator Executive Manager WP Manager WP Management Report to WP Manager Task leader

18 18 Contents Rational Objectives Potential impacts Consortium Project plan Back to content

19 19 Project plan The project is broken-down into 5 main work packages: Project management & dissemination (WP0): managing the consortium, reporting to the Commission, technical coordination with the partners. and also ensuring dissemination. Air and Ground Trajectory Prediction (WP1): better knowing the aircraft position forecast in order to assess the feasibility and efficiency of any future automation project; and evaluating the ability to estimate a piori the probability of success of the trajectory prediction and the proportion of successful subliminal action as well as minor adjustments. Concept of Operation (WP2): elaborating the concept of operations (with the objective of meeting capacity, safety and efficiency in the time frame ). Prototype developments (WP3): producing detailed specifications of the selected operational scenarios and developing the prototype (both controller and the pilot sides). Validation & Conclusion (WP4) conducting validation processes in term of proof of concept assessment aiming at providing quantifiable benefit statements for the safety, efficiency, capacity, security and economy (validation process based on E-OCVM, ESARR4 as reference for safety requirement).

20 20 Project plan Other European R&D Projects & Working Groups WP 0 Project management & dissemination WP 1 Air and Ground Trajectory Prediction WP 2 3 applications Concept of Operation 3 applications WP 3 Prototype development WP 4 Validation & Conclusion

21 21 Project plan - WBS

22 22 Project plan WP0 WP 0 Management of the consortium (Eur) Partners Other European R&D Projects & Working Groups Projects WP 0.1 Project Coordination & Quality Assurance WP 0 WP 0.2 WP Coordination WP 0.5 Dissemination & Communication Project Coordination WP 1 to WP 4 WP 0.3 Coordination with other Projects WP 0.4 Project Reviews & Reporting to the Stakeholders WP0.1 - management of the consortium (Management Board Meetings and Yearly Progress Meetings); WP0.2 - technical coordination between the work packages; WP0.3 - administrative coordination with other projects; WP0.4 - technical reporting to the European Commission (periodic Progress Reports, Final Report); WP0.5 - Dissemination and knowledge management (web site, conferences, external publications, general user forums, Public Final Report).

23 23 Project plan WP1 WP 1 Air Ground trajectory prediction (HON) WP1.0 WP management; Other European R&D Projects & Working Groups User Forum WP 1 Air Ground Trajectory Prediction WP 1.0 WP Management WP 1.1 Air Trajectory Prediction WP 1.1 Ground Trajectory Prediction Prediction Ground TP Capabilities WP 1.4 Mathematical Modelling FMS TP Capabilities Performance Capabilities WP 2 Concept of Operations Definition WP1.1 - Air Trajectory Prediction (elaboration of the FMS-trajectory prediction model integrating an enhanced meteorological model); WP1.2 - Ground Trajectory Prediction (defining consistency requirements between the air and ground trajectory prediction); WP1.3 - Mathematical Modelling and Fast Time Simulations (modelling traffic exploitation using this enhanced FMStrajectory prediction model in order to assess the benefits depending of different configurations (airspace structure, number of aircrafts, number of conflicts, separation minima, timeframe,.).

24 24 Project plan WP2 WP 2 Operation, procedure definition (DSNA) WP2.0 WP management; WP 2 Operations & Procedures Definition WP2.1 - State of the art (providing a synthesis of the state-of-the-art on current Air Ground capabilities and human computer automation issue); WP 1 Air Ground Trajectory Prediction Other European R&D Projects & Working Groups User Forum WP 2.0 WP Management WP 2.4 Anticipated Benefits Benefit estimation Scenarios definition WP 2.1 State-of-the-Art WP 2.2 Operation & Procedures WP 2.3 Operational Scenarios WP 2.5 Transition State-of-the-art Concept of operations Scenarios definition Hypothesis refinement Scenarios definition WP 4 Validation WP 3 Prototype WP2.2 - Definition of the concept of operations (defining the modus operandi of the three proposed applications: subliminal, ATC Autopilot, Enhanced MTCD); WP2.3 Definition of the operational scenarios; WP2.4 Anticipated Benefits (assessing benefits of the concepts of operations with regard to safety, capacity, efficiency and environmental impacts); WP2.5 - Transition (defining a transition path from the current system to the future one).

25 25 Project plan WP3 WP 3 Prototype development (DSNA) WP 2 Elaboration of Operations & Procedures Modus Operandi Operational Scenarios Functional Specification WP 3 Prototype Development WP 3.0 WP 3.1 WP Management Prototype Specification Specification WP 3.2 Prototype Development Platform WP3.0 WP management; WP3.1 - Prototype Specification (drawing the specification of the different prototype illustrating the main issues of HMI, traffic information representation, and joint cognitive system operation); WP3.2 - Prototype Development WP 4 Validation

26 26 Project plan WP4 WP 4 Validation process (EUR) WP 2 Elaboration of Operational Concept Modus Operandi Operational Scenarios Concept Refinement Conclusion WP 4.0 WP Management Simulation results WP 4.2 Human-in-the-Loop Experimentation WP 4 Validation WP 4.1 Validation Plan Metrics & Hypoythesis Validation Design Plan WP 4.5 Result Analysis Results Analysis WP 4.6 Elaboration of conclusions Data preparation, scenarios WP 4.3 Security, Safety, Efficiency, Cost-benefit Assesment Modeling results WP4.0 WP management; WP4.1 - Validation Plan (understanding the ATM problem that needs to be solved and the concept of operations developed to address this problem); WP Human-in-the-loop experimentation (performing small scale air and ground rapid-prototyping simulations to demonstrate the operational feasibility on the ground and the air, and to make qualitative and objective assessments of the cognitive process of controllers and pilots); WP 4.3 Safety, efficiency and cost-benefits assessment; WP 4.4 Result Analysis; WP Elaboration of conclusions

27 27 Project plan Gantt

28 28 Project status ERASMUS contract negotiation with EC still underway. ERASMUS T0 is foreseen to be March 2006

29 29 ERASMUS to automate or not to automate? Thanks for your attention Any question?