ACHIEVING THE TRANSITION TOWARDS A HYDROGEN-BASED SOCIETY Challenges, actors and actions SCIENTIFIC REPORT

Transcription

1 ECN-C ACHIEVING THE TRANSITION TOWARDS A HYDROGEN-BASED SOCIETY Challenges, actors and actions SCIENTIFIC REPORT Results of work package one of the HySociety project funded under the EU 5 th framework programme R. Mourik (ed.) ECN Policy Studies APRIL 25

2 Acknowledgement/Preface The present scientific report is part of the HySociety project. The HySociety project is supported by the European Commission under its Fifth Framework Programme Energy, Environment & Sustainable Development (Project no. NNE ). This report describes the results of the activities carried out for the first work package title WP1, which was coordinated by ECN. The objective of WP1 was to explore the potential short and medium term challenges (barriers and opportunities) in the transition towards a hydrogen based society. HySociety is coordinated by IST (Portugal), and involves research institutes in Portugal (IST, SRE), Norway (SINTEF, RF), Finland (VTT), Spain (INTA), Belgium (VITO, ULg, AVERE), Germany (VGB, FhG/ISI, LBST), Austria (EVA), Sweden (SYDKRAFT), Italy (ENEA), United Kingdom (ICSTM), France (CNRS-LCSR), Greece (NTUA), Iceland (INE), and the Netherlands (ECN). More details about the HySociety project can be found at We would like to thank all the partners mentioned above for their invaluable help in submitting the data and text that made it possible to write this work package one report. The HySociety project is registered at ECN under number For information on the ECN contribution to the project you can contact Harm Jeeninga or Ruth Mourik by (jeeninga@ecn.nl, mourik@ecn.nl) or by telephone ( , ). Abstract Studies worldwide have indicated the technical feasibility of the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier in transport and energy sectors. In these studies it is argued that hydrogen holds the potential to provide a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply that can enhance economies, environment and security. Hydrogen can be produced from a variety of resources, and can offer near-zero emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Hydrogen can also play an important role in matching energy demand with energy supply. As the share of renewable energy increases, matching of energy demand and energy supply will become increasingly more complex and difficult to achieve. The introduction of hydrogen could act as a buffer in matching energy demand and supply. Global concerns about climate change and energy securities have also created a forum for a discussion on the mainstream societal penetration of hydrogen-based technologies. The development of hydrogen energy, however, lacks an international roadmap that identifies the co-ordinated, long-term public and private efforts required for a successful transition to a hydrogen-based society. Developing hydrogen, as a widespread energy carrier requires solutions to many challenges in multiple areas: infrastructure, politics and institutions, technology, economics, ecology and culture. This need for a coordinated and long term public and private effort to solve the challenges that a transition to hydrogen-based energy supply is faced with led to the formulation of the HySociety project proposal. The HySociety project, financed under the FP5 framework of the European commission, aims to contribute to European policies on hydrogen related issues through the development of an Action Plan for the introduction of hydrogen and for the removal and/or reduction of challenges. The geographic target is Europe, focusing on the 15 EU member states plus Norway and Iceland. In addition, demonstration projects in Canada, USA, Japan, Brazil and China have been analysed. Work package one addresses the technological, infrastructural, ecological, economic, political and cultural challenges to the transition to a hydrogen-based society. The work builds upon analysis of the challenges identified in demonstration projects in all participating countries. In this paper we first discuss the transition theory and the methodology used in HySociety work package one and conclude with a discussion of results of the HySociety project. 2 ECN-C--5-21

3 CONTENTS S.1. Introduction 5 S.2. The transition theory underlying the analysis of challenges 5 S.3. The methodology developed to analyse the challenges 6 S.4. Challenges in the transition towards a hydrogen based society 6 S.5. Results and recommendations: identifying hydrogen related R&D and Demonstration projects and analysing challenges, changes and actors 7 S.6. Conclusion Hysociety project: background and context Introduction Work package 1, tasks and deliverables Task 1.1/ Methodological approach Introduction Transition theory The development of Matrix 1.: Identification of recent and ongoing hydrogenrelated projects/programmes in Europe, Canada, Japan, USA and Third Countries The development of Matrix : Analysis of challenges and changes in selected hydrogen-related projects/programmes in Europe, Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries The development of an extensive database of hydrogen- related projects and programmes in Europe and in Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries WP 1 Hysociety project task 1.: Activities and results Overview of activities related to Task Overview of general insights and of country specific insights List of all 51 selected projects 4 4. Task 1.1/1.2: General insight in challenges, changes and actors in the transition to hydrogen as a wide-spread energy carrier Overview of activities related to Task 1.1/ A note of caution on how to read the results of analysis of country specific demonstration projects Overview of general insights results Tasks of challenges per segment and dimension in which challenges are incurred: an average Transition potential per dimension Transition potential per segment Relevant actors per segment Relevant actors per dimension The influence and attitude of relevant actors towards the required changes in specific segments Timing of necessary changes per segment Timing of necessary changes per dimension 72 ECN-C

4 5. Task : results of analysis of country specific demonstration projects A note of caution on how to read the results of analysis of country specific demonstration projects Austria Belgium Brazil Canada China Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Italy Japan Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom ECN-C--5-21

5 SUMMARY S.1. Introduction This summary provides the results of research that has been conducted as part of the EU-funded project HySociety. The HySociety project is supported by the European Commission under its Fifth Framework Programme Energy, Environment & Sustainable Development (Project no. NNE ). This report describes the results of the activities carried out for the first work package WP1, which was coordinated by ECN. The objective of WP1 was to explore the potential short and medium term challenges (barriers and opportunities) in the transition towards a hydrogen based society. HySociety is co-ordinated by IST (Portugal), and involves research institutes in Portugal (IST) (SRE), Norway (SINTEF) (RF), Finland (VTT), Spain (INTA), Belgium (VITO) (ULg) (AVERE), Germany (VGB) (FhG/ISI) (LBST), Austria (EVA), Sweden (SYDKRAFT), Italy (ENEA), United Kingdom (ICSTM), France (CNRS-LCSR), Greece (NTUA), Iceland (INE), and the Netherlands (ECN). More details about the HySociety project can be found at The possibilities and advantages of a transition towards a hydrogen-based society are promising. Hydrogen-related demonstration projects have been taking place for many years now, and these have often been labelled as successes in reports. However, in reality there have been few successful follow-ups of demonstrations that were rated successful. Introducing hydrogen, as a widespread energy carrier requires solutions to many challenges in multiple areas: infrastructure, politics and institutions, technology, economics, ecology, geography and culture. To overcome these hurdles co-ordinated, long-term public, private and governmental efforts are required. Up to today, there is no international (EU-) roadmap that identifies both the challenges to the widespread introduction of hydrogen and the actions and actors needed to overcome these challenges. Within the HySociety project, which is co-funded by the EC within the FP5 framework, the aim is to identify the most important technological, infrastructural, ecological, economic, political and cultural challenges to a successful widespread introduction of hydrogen after the demonstration phase and to provide an action plan to create an enabling environment for the successful introduction of a hydrogen-based society in Europe. The analysis of these challenges is built upon analysis of country specific and boundary-crossing challenges as identified in 51 selected demonstration projects. These projects are either EC, nationally or privately funded and take place in 15 EU member states, Norway, Iceland, USA, Canada and Japan, China and Brazil. The analysis of these demonstration projects contributes to the advancement of European policies on hydrogen-related issues through the development of a complete Action Plan for the introduction of hydrogen into European society and the removal of boundary-crossing barriers. In addition the analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the kind of challenges that need to be dealt with nationally because of their country-specific characteristics. S.2. The transition theory underlying the analysis of challenges To analyse the challenges that face the transition to a hydrogen-based energy supply system, Work Package 1 of HySociety uses insights from transition theory as developed by Geels (22). In this theory a transition is defined as a gradual and lengthy process (25-5 years) of change in which a society or system changes fundamentally. These transitions often coincide or start with the breakthrough of several radical or architectural innovations from their niches. The nature of such innovations challenges existing technological conventions, regulatory frame- ECN-C

6 works, and established relations between consumers and producers. Technological transitions concern changes in the technological dimension, but also in the infrastructural, political and institutional, ecological, cultural and economic dimensions (Geels, 22). Only by examining what is taken for granted in the future is one able to define the necessary changes in all dimensions to make the future world realisable, and to define who needs to manage exactly what changes and in what phases of the transition process. This is, in essence, the Task of the HySociety project Work Package 1. S.3. The methodology developed to analyse the challenges The methodology was designed not only to make a qualitative but also a quantitative assessment of the potential for the success of different specific promising pathways involving hydrogen. Therefore a database was developed including six hundred challenges and changes collected in some sixty projects. This database aided in obtaining a quantitative global European picture of the key and marginal challenges and changes for all dimensions, segments, countries and specific pathways. The database also quantified the seriousness of challenges and the transition potential of hydrogen in different segments, dimensions, countries and pathways, and the sequence of changes necessary in all segments and dimensions for different pathways. The database also facilitated the overview of the key and marginal actors that are needed to overcome challenges in specific segments, dimensions, countries or pathways. The database gave an insight into country-specific and boundary-crossing pathways, possible conflicting pathways, co-evolving and co-operating pathways, as well as the most promising near, mid and long-term pathways. S.4. Challenges in the transition towards a hydrogen based society The first work package of the HySociety project consisted of three elements. Task 1. of the project aimed at creating a list of all the ongoing projects and programs in partner countries. The aim of this activity was not to produce an exhaustive list of all hydrogen related demonstration and R&D projects, but to gain an insight into the type of projects that are currently ongoing or have been completed recently. Based on this list, a selection of projects suitable for in-depth analyses was made. Since HySociety is an accompanying measure, the focus of the methodology was on the present situation in demonstrations, both at the level of scientific knowledge and the level of cultural, economic, political, institutional, and technological development. It was necessary to consider the results of current demonstration programmes and the steps that need to be taken to achieve market entry of hydrogen for both stationary and transport applications. These targets could be achieved by a methodology that allows for an evaluation of the present activities in hydrogen, which assess the non-technical barriers that exist for the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This identification included all relevant segments and all possible energetic uses of hydrogen. Each partner was required to identify all the ongoing and recent R&D programs and demonstration projects and programs, including regional, national and international, that take place and are co-ordinated from within the partner country. Tasks 1.1 and 1.2 were divided into two parts. The first covered the analysis of the challenges for each of the selected hydrogen-related projects and programmes in Europe, Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries. This analysis was primarily a qualitative assessment of the existing and potential impact on hydrogen uptake of challenges. Where possible, a quantitative assessment was also being carried out. The second covered the identification of the actions necessary to overcome these challenges and the use of key information gathered in Task 1.1 to elaborate a set of guidelines for actions to be undertaken in each sector of activity. These guidelines will be used to develop proposals under WP3 for fiscal, legislative and other measures that 6 ECN-C--5-21

7 would significantly enhance the potential for hydrogen to be used in a variety of circumstances. The last Task of work package one consisted of delivering a set of recommendations on common policies and measures so that adequate preparations can be made in terms of political and fiscal support measures, codes and standards and other supporting actions. S.5. Results and recommendations: identifying hydrogen related R&D and demonstration projects and analysing challenges, changes and actors The partner countries identified 421 projects. The following aspects (explained in depth in the Methodology, Chapter 3 of this report) were discussed for every project that was identified: the start and end date, whether it was a demonstration or an R&D project, the status of the project (ongoing or completed), whether the project had a regional, national or international focus, the source of funding (EU, private partners or the national government), the project participants (national or international partners), how the project was rated, which domain or segment of the technology chain was covered in the project (production, conversion, distribution, storage, enduse), and finally what kind of challenges were identified in the project. These identified projects encompass both demonstration projects and research and development projects. The partners were asked to fill in relevant projects that have been conducted in the respective countries in the last four years, with emphasis on demonstration projects. For Task 1.1/1.2 the partners performed an in-depth analysis for 51 demonstration projects relevant to the introduction of hydrogen. The results provide an average overview of the challenges, changes, actors, latest timing of necessary changes, and finally the transition potential per dimension and per segment as identified in selected demonstration projects in the following countries: the 15 EU member states, Norway, Iceland, Japan, Canada, Brazil, and China are discussed. Each partner analysed several national projects in detail. The partners identified what problems the different projects encountered, and discussed (in most cases in expert-interviews) what actions were or should have been required to solve the problems. Consequently the partners identified the dimensions in which the challenges occurred, what the influence of the challenges was on the successful introduction of hydrogen by means of the project, what changes were necessary, and in what dimension, what the influence of the change would be on the successful introduction of hydrogen, what actors were required to undertake the action, if they were willing and able to do the job, and what the likelihood was that the change would take place. It should be noted that the list of projects is not exhaustive. Firstly, partners decided whether or not a project was relevant to the possible introduction of hydrogen and as a consequence this selection was subjective. In addition partners are unlikely, in principle, to have a full insight in all possible projects and programs taking place or having taken place in their country. As a result, the following quantified insights deduced from the identified projects must not be taken as firm conclusions. Similarly, the recommendations that are formulated below are dependent upon the material that was delivered in Task 1. and call for cautious interpretation. For a more extensive insight into country specific data please refer to the Excel databases WP1-1. and WP1.1/1.2 that is also available on the HySociety website. S.5.1 Results of Task 1.: identification of hydrogen related projects The results of Task 1. indicate that there were strong differences between countries with respect to the number of demonstration projects identified. The objective of the accompanying measure HySociety was to identify the challenges particularly for hydrogen-related technologies that could be applied immediately in a real world situation, and not so much for state-of-the-art technologies as developed in R&D projects in laboratory settings. For some countries the ECN-C

8 analysis might not be very relevant, since the projects under analysis may not deal with application-ready technologies. The results further indicate that there are great individual differences between countries concerning the ratio of R&D and ongoing projects. Results also indicate that the current status of the projects also shows great individual differences between countries. In most countries most of the projects identified are still ongoing (more than fifty percent). It is interesting to note that Germany provided information on more than fifty projects, but that only 33% of them are ongoing, the rest have been completed. The results indicate that there is usually a good distribution of projects with a focus on a regional, national and international level within each country. There are however several exceptions. The projects in Italy, France, Japan and the Developing Countries have a strictly national focus. Belgium and Japan have a very strong regional focus whereas Luxembourg has a strictly international focus. Finland and Canada lack projects with an international focus. The results further indicate that the European Union is not the main financier of demonstration projects that cover a very large number of segments of the technology chain. Private funds and national governments most often fund these demonstration projects. The EU is however often the main financier of demonstration projects that deal with a small number of segments of the technology chain. In some countries (for example Spain, The Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden) large demonstration projects do not involve market parties or enduser representatives. This observation is a reason for concern because these market parties are the actors that need to take up the further implementation of the technologies after their demonstration phase. Perhaps the market parties are not confident that the technologies are mature enough to be used outside laboratory settings or outside the neatly confined demonstration projects. In addition, the lack of involvement of end-users in demonstration projects is reason for concern if this lack of involvement follows from an opposing standpoint towards the use of hydrogen. These aspects should be researched in more detail. The results indicate that there is a relationship between the kind of participants (national or international) and the focus of a project (international, national or regional). With respect to demonstration projects the participants are mainly national when the focus is national or regional, and international demonstrations have mainly international consortia. With respect to R&D projects the participants are again mainly national when the focus is national or regional, and the international demonstrations have mainly international consortia. The results indicate that the rating of the projects is usually low for R&D projects (2 to 4), whilst the demonstration projects usually have a higher rating, up to 9. This rating is logical since R&D projects are usually not validated outside the laboratory. The rating 4 applies to the components being validated in the laboratory and is the highest rating an R&D project can achieve. The rating that applies to demonstration projects starts with the rating number 5 that indicates that the system was demonstrated in a relevant environment. 9 is the highest possible rating for demos and indicates that the system was verified by successful use. The results indicate that the segment of conversion and end-use are the segments most often addressed in projects. Only a small number of countries have identified demonstration projects that deal with the entire technology chain. The reasons underlying the conditions that generate this difference should be explored to establish if these conditions hamper the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The results indicate that challenges occur mainly in the technological, economic and infrastructural dimensions. The results indicate that changes need to be effected in the technological, economic and infrastructural dimensions. The results indicate that most R&D projects have a mobile application or combined mobile-stationary application. The application of demonstration projects is evenly distributed between all three possible applications. 8 ECN-C--5-21

9 S.5.2 Recommendation Task 1. It is recommended that further research be undertaken to ascertain whether there are indeed significant differences among countries with respect to the number of projects dealing with hydrogen. In addition research should be undertaken to determine why the number of national programs, feasibility and network studies is limited. A further recommendation is to ascertain whether there are indeed significant differences among countries with respect to the number of R&D projects dealing with hydrogen, the ratio of R&D/demonstration projects and the ratio of ongoing to finished projects. The underlying conditions that generate the differences with respect to the focus of the projects need examination. Further research should also be undertaken to ascertain whether there are significant differences in the funding source for projects with a regional, national or international focus. The underlying conditions that generate the relationship between the kind of participants (national or international) and the focus of a project (international, national or regional) should be examined. More research is required to ascertain whether there are significant differences in the number of projects dealing with specific segments and whether these differences are also country specific because this might indicate possible cooperation opportunities between countries with specific expertise in a particular segment. Another matter worthy of further exploration is the differences with respect to the dimension in which the challenges occur and whether they are country specific. The differences with respect to the changes should be analysed in a similar way. Finally it is recommended that further research be undertaken to ascertain whether the field of application of the projects is dependent on whether it concerns an R&D or a demonstration project. It should be established if these differences are country-specific. In conclusion, for all aspects that need to be explored in more detail, special emphasis should be put on the underlying conditions that generate the difference and whether these conditions hamper the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier. S.5.3 Results of Task 1.1 & 1.2: identifying challenges, changes, and actors In the production segment most of the challenges identified were technological and economic. In the distribution segment the challenges were mostly infrastructural, technological, economic and socio-cultural. In the storage segment the most frequent challenges were technological, economic, infrastructural, political and socio-cultural. The conversion segments recorded the most challenges in the technological, economic and infrastructural dimensions whereas in the end-use segment, most challenges were noted in the technological, socio-cultural and economic dimensions. ECN-C

10 An analysis of the transition potential per dimension shows that all dimensions with the exception of the economic dimension have a transition potential just above 1, which is fairly good. The economic dimension is troublesome. Economic challenges occur in all segments but most economic challenges occurred in the end-use (56 times) and the production segments (38 times). The distribution segment raised 23 economic challenges, storage segment 21 and the conversion segment 24. The transition potential per segment shows that the production, distribution and storage segments have a lower transition potential than the conversion and end-use segments, but all segments show sufficient potential to overcome the challenges. Based on the projects analysed, the partners identified industry, the national government and R&D as most important actors for tackling the challenges identified in the all segments. The international government was attributed a minor role in tackling the problems. If we relate this outcome to the analysis of the kind of challenges most often found, the outcome is not surprising. The technological and economic challenges were the ones most often identified, and the production, distribution, and storage segment had the lowest transition potential. To a lesser extent the infrastructural, political and socio-cultural challenges were identified and the end-use segment had a medium transition potential. It is therefore not surprising that R&D and industry were mentioned most often as important actors, and to a slightly lesser extent, the national government. The partners identified the economic, technological, infrastructural, political and socio-cultural challenges as the most serious ones in impeding the successful transition to hydrogen as widespread energy carrier. Partners further identified the production, storage and distribution segments as the most troublesome. For all these dimensions and segments the partners identified the same actors as being the most important in tackling the problems: industry, the national government and R&D. The international government was attributed a minor role in tackling the problems. The majority of influential R&D projects involved in the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier are supportive of change. There is almost no R&D project that is in opposition to the identified necessary changes. The opposition in R&D projects occurs only in the end-use segment. The majority of influential industry involved in the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier (a broader category than simply R&D) is supportive of changes. There is almost no industry in opposition to the identified necessary changes. The opposition of industry is mainly in the production and end-use segments. The majority of influential national governments involved in the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier are supportive of changes. The national governments have almost no opposition to the identified necessary changes. There is however also a high number of influential national governments that is neutral to the changes. The opposition of national governments is especially noticeable in the production and storage segments. In addition, based on the results of the demonstration projects analysed it can be concluded that only the influential international government will pose no problem to the introduction of hydrogen. The majority of most other groups of actors that were identified are supportive of changes. Finally, the influential end-users/consumers involved in the introduction of hydrogen and the influential public opinion involved in the introduction of hydrogen is mainly in opposition to change. The highest opposition of influential public opinion occurs in the end-use segment. But the public opinion is opposing changes in all segments except for the distribution segment. In that segment there is no opposition of public opinion according to the results of the analysis. However the number of consumers and end-users that are neutral, or that have not yet positioned themselves is so high, that if all became supportive, there would be approximately as many consumers in favour of as opposed to the necessary changes. In the segments production, distribution, storage and conversion most consumers are opposed to the changes. In the end-use 1 ECN-C--5-21

11 segment however, an almost equal number of consumers is opposed and supportive of the changes, whilst an even higher number of consumers is still neutral. In all the segments, for approximately half of the required changes no specific dates have been identified. The reasons could be either a lack of knowledge of the required date for change, or a perception that there is no pressing need to undertake the actions to solve the problems. For all segments, except production, the majority of the changes have to take place before 21. In the production segment the majority of the changes have to take place before 26. For similar reasons no specific dates have been identified for changes in all of the dimensions. In terms of the dates identified for the economic changes the majority of the changes need to be addressed before 27. The majority of geographical changes that are required should be addressed before 26. The results indicate that the majority of infrastructural changes need to be addressed before 21. Most of the required political changes need to be addressed before 26 and sociocultural changes before 27. The analyses reveal that for both ecological and technological changes the majority of those identified should be addressed before 21. S.5.4 Recommendations Task 1.1/1.2 The analysis of the projects reveal that the economic challenges in the production and end-use segments are most troublesome and should be tackled with priority. The distribution and storage segments show a lower transition potential than the end-use segment and this can be related to the existence of many infrastructural, socio-cultural and political challenges. Of these three the political dimension shows the lower transition potential and deserves therefore priority although the socio-cultural and infrastructural challenges should also be tackled. The required changes identified by the partners could be achieved best through R&D, industry, and to a slightly lesser extent the national government. Among the actors that partners identified as relevant to undertake the changes, the number that is neutral is (almost) as high as the number that is supportive of change. It is therefore important to assess the reason for this neutral standpoint and attempt to motivate and enrol these neutral groups into a hydrogen-supportive stand. This applies especially to influential energy companies, transport companies and investors involved in the introduction of hydrogen, as well as the local and regional governments concerned. S.6. Conclusion A methodology has been developed to analyse the transition potential of the introduction of hydrogen in different countries and on a general European level. The methodology explicitly focused on the challenges, the necessary changes and the required actors for the introduction of hydrogen. The methodology used avoids a technology-oriented description that would be deficient in terms of an in-depth understanding of socio-cultural, political, judicial, cultural and geographical aspects relevant to the use of hydrogen. This whole system approach highlighted the complex dependencies among the diverse system components, and allowed for an assessment of the gaps between the existing practice and a future expected world; a world in which the transition to the widespread use of hydrogen has occurred. After this detailed analysis and after the ratings have been analysed, a roadmap or action plan will be to be formulated in WP3 to indicate to the EC what pathway, or combination of pathways will be the most robust in the near future. The follow-up pathways should be robust in the sense that the challenges for each dimension and each segment of the technological chain should have been identified as well as the necessary changes for each challenge, the critical moment for each change and the key actors to manage each of these changes. ECN-C

12 1. HYSOCIETY PROJECT: BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 1.1 Introduction The possibilities and advantages of a transition towards a hydrogen base society are promising. The technical feasibility of the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier in transport and energy sectors is promising. Hydrogen holds the potential to provide a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply that can enhance economies, environment and security. Hydrogen can be produced from a variety of resources, and can offer near-zero emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Hydrogen can also play an important role in matching energy demand with energy supply. As the share of renewable energy increases, matching of energy demand and energy supply will become increasingly more complex and difficult to achieve. Introduction of hydrogen could act as a buffer in matching energy demand and supply. Global concerns about climate change and energy securities have also created a forum for a discussion on the mainstream societal penetration of hydrogen-based technologies. Hydrogen-related demonstration projects have been taking place for many years now, and these have often been labelled successes. However, reality shows that there have been few successful follow-ups of demonstrations that were rated as successful. Introducing hydrogen, as a widespread energy carrier requires solutions to many challenges in multiple areas: infrastructure, politics and institutions, technology, economics, ecology, geography and culture. To overcome these hurdles co-ordinated, long-term public, private and governmental efforts are required. Up to today, there lacks an international (EU-) roadmap that identifies both the challenges to the widespread introduction of hydrogen and the actions and actors needed to overcome these challenges. A roadmap is required that identifies the coordinated, long-term public and private efforts required for a successful transition to a hydrogen-based society. This roadmap needs to be different from typical descriptions of current hydrogen practices and of most promising pathway to a hydrogen-based society. These current descriptions are extremely technology oriented and lack an in-depth understanding of other relevant aspects of the use and implementation of hydrogen: socio-cultural, infrastructural, political, ecological and legal aspects. In addition the focus of most, if not all, current perspectives on transition to a hydrogen-based society is on the initial phase of the transition: the technological niche. Therefore, one of the Taskss to be performed by the HySociety consortium consisted of addressing not only the possible technological, but also the infrastructural, ecological, economic, political and cultural challenges concerning the transition to a hydrogen-based society in Europe. The main objective of HySociety WP1 was to create an enabling environment to establish the European hydrogen based society. HySociety is an accompanying measure, and as such is expected to support other current initiatives in hydrogen. The project is not intended to undertake new fundamental research nor is it required to do a survey of the state of the art of present hydrogen technologies. The overall aim is to look realistically at the support measures and actors that are required today in order to achieve the hydrogen society visualised for the future of 23 and beyond. The work will build upon analysis of the challenges as identified in existing R&D and particularly demonstration projects and networks, national projects, industrial initiatives, programs and projects. The geographic target of the project is Europe, focusing on the 15 EU member states plus Norway, Iceland and third countries (mainly USA, Canada and Japan). 12 ECN-C--5-21

13 Final results of the HySociety project will contribute to the advancement of European policies on hydrogen related issues through the development of a complete Action Plan for the introduction of hydrogen into European society and for the removal and/or reduction of the identified challenges. 1.2 Work package 1, tasks and deliverables The main milestone in WP1 is the identification of the most relevant contemporary challenges to the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier and recommendations for policies and measures to remove and/or reduce the identified challenges as perceived today. There are three tasks and three deliverables in WP1 (D1 to D3). The first task in WP1 (Task 1.) required an identification of contemporary projects and programs related to hydrogen. Since HySociety is an accompanying measure, the focus was on the present situation in demonstrations, both at the scientific knowledge level, cultural, economic, political, institutional, and technological development level. It is necessary to consider the results of current demonstration programmes and the next steps that need to be taken to achieve market entry of hydrogen for both stationary and transport applications. These targets can be achieved by an evaluation of the present activities in hydrogen to assess the non-technical barriers that may exist for the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This identification included all relevant segments and all possible energetic uses of hydrogen. Although many other European projects aim at identifying projects and programs that are somehow related to the specific energy carrier under analysis, it was still believed that this task was not overlapping other European activities because of its specific focus on the identification of hydrogen related demonstration projects. In addition the focus was on ongoing or very recently finished projects and programs to ensure that the identified projects represented the state of the art in hydrogen related research, development and demonstration. The identification of the projects was specifically aimed at providing a thorough base for the analysis of obstacles and opportunities to the introduction of hydrogen. Task 1. was divided into three actions: The development of a matrix that can be employed for the assessment of hydrogen- related projects and programmes in Europe and in Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries. This identification and assessment of hydrogen-related projects would be based on empirical data collection and validation. The development of an extensive database of hydrogen- related projects and programmes in Europe and in Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries. A selection of hydrogen-related projects and programmes in Europe, Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries that will be further analysed in Tasks 1.1 and Task 1.1/1.2 Initially, Tasks 1.1 and 1.2 also included describing the present legislation codes and standards and policy drivers (world-wide and specifically in the European Union) related to the uptake of hydrogen. This task was transferred to WP 3. The revised aim of Task 1.1 and 1.2 was to identify the critical conditions for a successful introduction of hydrogen into society and the establishment of a hydrogen infrastructure in the near, medium and long term. To accomplish this task projects identified in Task 1. were selected for an in-depth analysis aimed at identifying the key challenges to the introduction of hydrogen and the required actions and actors to overcome these barriers. ECN-C

14 Tasks 1.1 and 1.2 could be divided into two actions: Analysing the challenges for each of the selected hydrogen-related projects and programmes in Europe, Canada, Japan, USA and Developing Countries. This analysis would primarily be a qualitative assessment of the existing and potential impact on hydrogen uptake by each challenge. Where possible, a quantitative assessment would also be carried out. Identifying the actions necessary to overcome these challenges and use key information gathered in this Task 1.1 to elaborate a set of guidelines for actions to be undertaken in each sector of activity. These guidelines will be used to develop proposals under WP3 for fiscal, legislative and other measures that would significantly enhance the potential for hydrogen to be used in a variety of circumstances. The last task of WP1 consisted in delivering a set of recommendations on common policies and measures so that adequate preparations can be made in terms of political and fiscal support measures, codes and standards and other supporting actions. 14 ECN-C--5-21

15 2. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH 2.1 Introduction To analyse what is taken for granted in a future where hydrogen is widely applied as an energy carrier, to identify the changes that are necessary in all dimensions to make a widespread use of hydrogen possible, and to define who needs to manage exactly what changes in what phases of the transition process we needed to develop a methodology that could perform these tasks. Because of the large number of partners it was necessary to develop a methodology in such a manner that any misinterpretation on how the related activities were to be carried out was prevented. In addition the methodology had to prevent overlapping activities, it had to allow the partners to provide homogeneous and above all reliable and representative information that could be easily compared; and the methodology had to make it possible to construct a database that in turn could be used for an analysis of hydrogen related aspects at European level. The methodology that was developed focused on the different relevant dimensions: technological, infrastructural, political, institutional, cultural, economic, ecological, and geographical. The methodology also explicitly focused on the relevant actors and actions needed to overcome the challenges. The methodology prevented a technology-oriented description that would lack an in-depth understanding of socio-cultural, political, judicial, cultural and geographical aspects relevant to the use of hydrogen. This whole system approach highlighted the complex dependencies among the diverse system components, and allowed for an assessment of the gaps between the existing practice and the future expected world, a world in which the transition to widespread use of hydrogen has occurred. Crosscutting, system-level issues and concerns received close attention. The ways in which the different parts of the system work together from technical, economic, societal, political, environmental and ecological standpoint were addressed, because this focus facilitated the identification of key international challenges and needs that might impede or sustain the development of a whole hydrogen-based society. After the HySociety kick-off meeting in March 23, three draft matrices were developed for carrying out the tasks in Work Package 1. These matrices were then submitted for comments. In the sections below you find a description of the transition theory that underlies the activities in work package one, the development process of the methodology, the background for choices and the methodological comments of partners. 2.2 Transition theory Several phases can be distinguished in the transition process (Rotmans et al., 2, Geels, 22). According to Rotmans (2) and Geels (22) the first phase is the pre-development phase: there is very little visible change but there is much experimentation in niches in this phase. Geels (22) defines technological niches as protected spaces where technologies or concepts are developed and which cannot economically survive in their present state. They are protected by various actors who believe in their long term prospects and/or profits and who are willing to invest time, effort and/or money. A technological niche is different from a market niche. The latter denotes a subsection of a larger market that can survive economically while a technological niche cannot and needs protection. ECN-C

16 In the take off phase, the second phase, the process of change gets underway. Innovations can only outgrow niches by means of specific mechanisms. Geels (22) defines these mechanisms as add-on, coupling and hybridisation. So niches can couple with, add-on or hybridise with developments and or technologies in the existing practice or global agendas. Geels (22) defines this existing practice as the socio-technical regime: the set of rules, regulations, assumptions and theories, division of labour systems, etc that are embedded in the material and social practices. It is characteristic for regimes that technological developments within the regime are mostly incremental, in other words are aimed are aimed at optimisation. Examples of regimes are the regime of energy supply, the regime of agriculture and the regime of transport by ship. The socio-technical landscape is defined by Geels (22) as the wider context of a regime in the form of socio cultural and economic factors and processes. As soon as the innovation has broken trough, it starts to interfere with the broader system: the socio-technical regime. This results in the acceleration phase: structural changes on regime level take place in a visible way through an accumulation of socio-cultural, economic, ecological and institutional changes that react with each other; in this phase collective learning, diffusion and embedding processes occur. A transition can thus, according to Geels (22) be seen as a regime transformation. The introduction of hydrogen-fuelled cars for instance will have impacts on infrastructure, assumptions on regular conventional driving and governmental regulations. Finally, the stabilisation phase takes place: the speed of social change decreases and a new dynamic equilibrium is reached. Case studies (Geels 22) show that transitions always start from existing practices. This implies that a pathway for scaling up hydrogen use would build from the existing hydrogen industry. Therefore it is important first to assess the current technological practices of hydrogen production, distribution and storage, conversion and end-use. As briefly demonstrated in the above section, the pervasive current strictly technical approach to a transition is doomed to fail. A transition involves many more than strictly technical aspects. The niche breakthrough of several radical or architectural hydrogen innovations, such as new conversion technologies, metal-hydrid storage technologies and new fuel cell technologies challenges existing technological conventions, regulatory frameworks, and established relations between consumers and producers. In addition these new technologies and processes couple with and at the same time cause changes in the various dimensions. It is therefore important to assess the present state of the different dimensions that will surround the use of hydrogen. And it is also imperative to assess the gaps between the present and the future expected world, a world in which the transition to widespread use of hydrogen has occurred. In addition, managing all three phases of the transition is necessary if one wishes to enhance the potential of a successful transition to a hydrogen-based society. If the transition management would only focus on the predevelopment phase and push the innovation to reach the take-off phase in the expectation that technological superiority alone is sufficient guarantee for success the transition is most likely to end there. However, paying only attention to the take-off phase is not sufficient either, the innovation needs to be pulled, managed from the predevelopment phase into the second phase. Regime changes need to be analysed to identify the most promising possibilities for coupling and or hybridisation (Geels, 22) with existing technologies and practices. HySociety tackles an important aspect of transitions: they need to be managed, through all stages and in all dimensions. Transitions will not occur autonomously simply because the innovation or new technology is better than the existing one. As transition theory has demonstrated with the analysis of for example the transition from sailing ship to steamboat, a transition takes a lot of coordinated efforts of many different actors, accurate timing and management through all three stages of a transition. The superiority of a new technological option 16