The Future of Work. Caribbean Future of Work Forum, Kingston, Jamaica Wednesday 22 February, 2017

Transcription

1 The Future of Work Caribbean Future of Work Forum, Kingston, Jamaica Wednesday 22 February, 2017 José M. Salazar-Xirinachs Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean

2 THE FUTURE OF WORK is influenced by four main groups of drivers - Longevity - Youth explosion - Greater human diversity, migration - Gender parity I Demographic and populationrelated II Technological - Internet - Cloud technology -Big data - Internet of things - Automation - Robotics - Additive manufacturing, 3D - Genetics and bioprocesses Economic cycle - deceleration Large productivity gap How to achieve greater productive diversification / economic complexity III Related to productive development (or underdevelopment) IV Related to models/enterprise strategies and forms of contracting - New business models - On-line platforms: e-bay - Gig economy - crowdwork - Work-on-Demand - Global supply chains - Outsourcing - Consumer awareness about: privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics.

3 FUTURE OF WORK Drivers of change in the world of work - Longevity - Youth explosion - Greater human diversity, migration - Gender parity I Demographic and populationrelated - Internet - Cloud technology - Big data - Internet of things - Automation of knowledge work - Robotics - Additive manufacturing, 3D - Genetics and bioprocesses II Technological Economic cycle - deceleration Large productivity gap How to achieve greater productive diversification / economic complexity III Related to productive development (or underdevelopment) IV Enterprise models and forms of contracting New business models - On-line platforms: e-bay - Gig economy - crowdwork - Work-on-Demand - Global supply chains - Outsourcing Consumer awareness about: privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics

4 Impacts: opportunities and risks of the Technological Revolutions 1) Disruption: impact on employment: Dynamic of job destruction and creation technological unemployment because of digital economy, automation Pessimistic outlook: Machines will massively replace humans in many occupations McAfee & Brynjolfson, 2014; M. Ford, 2015; Frey & Osborne: 47% of occupations at risk Optimistic outlook: There will be replacement, but also complementarity and an increase in human skills For every ordinary job lost, three more will be created with the innovation explosion - Gil Giardelli, expert on innovation.

5 Impacts: opportunities and risks of the Technological Revolutions 2) Transformation of occupations: Demand for new, advanced skills increases (STEM jobs), and Existing skills become obsolete more quickly 3) Risk of greater inequality: Highly skilled, connected workers win Those with low skills, who are disconnected, lose (Hollowing out - Author). The rapid change in the skills profile for the 4th IR challenges formal education and occupational training systems and puts the focus on a Human Talent Development Agenda.

6 Impacts depend on degree of preparedness (capabilities) at various levels Convergence of New Technologies = Industry 4.0 Impact and rate of adoption depend on the degree of preparedness (capabilities) at various levels: Connectivity and Computing Power Data analysis and Intelligence Humanmachine Interface (HMI) Digital and Physical Transformation Internet of Things (IT) Advanced analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Augmented reality/ virtual reality/ wearables Advanced robotics 3D printing Degree of Preparedness Capability Assessment Rate of Adoption Innovation in Products or Services (Supply of the future) Individual (Operator of the future) Factory (Factory of the future) Enterprise (Producer of the future) Industry (Value chain economics) Government (Policies for productive development & jobs) Global (Global supply chains)

7 21 st Century skills at individual level Basic knowledge: Scientific: mathematics, science. Reading ICTs Financial Cultural/Civic Competencies: Critical thinking Creativity Communication Collaboration Character traits / socioemotional skills Persistence Adaptability Curiosity Initiative Leadership Social and cultural awareness The operator of the future must have: Ability to deal with intelligent machines Ability to adapt, observe, judge and take decisions Ability to learn to learn and adapt Innovation is done by people!! The best jobs demand these skills Qualifications and skills are the key to the Future!

8 FUTURE OF WORK Drivers of change in the world of work - Longevity - Youth explosion - Greater human diversity, migration II Technological - Internet - Cloud technology - Big data - Internet of things - Automation - Robotics - Additive manufacturing, 3D - Genetics and bioprocesses Economic cycle - deceleration Large productivity gap How to achieve greater productive diversification / economic complexity - Gender parity I Demographic and populationrelated III Related to productive development (or underdevelopment) IV Enterprise models and forms of contracting - New business models - On-line platforms: e-bay - Gig economy - crowdwork - Work-on-Demand, - Global supply chains - Outsourcing - Consumer awareness about: Privacy, health, diet, environment, ethics

9 How has Productivity performed in Latin America and the Caribbean? From bad to disastrous The region s economies have been growing because of raw materials prices and factor accumulation, not because of productivity Average productivity is 50% of US level. In some countries, it is 30%. Instead of closing, the gap is widening. The tragedy of Latin America - IDB 2010 The Achilles heel of the region s economies - ECLAC 2016 Structural transformation has not shifted enough workers from lowproductivity sectors to high-productivity sectors (Rodrik & McMillan, 2012). Exports are concentrated in just a few products. Large gaps in innovation, education and work force skills. Productivity and productive development are a pending task and a an urgent agenda!

10 What can be done to speed up productivity growth? Countries should start new engines for growth. Avenues include: Quality education and relevant training Greater formalization of employment and enterprises More employment in medium and large enterprises and less self-employment and employment in microenterprises Diversification of production: new sectors Policies to improve preparedness for adoption and dissemination of new technologies and the 4 th IR Policies to promote innovation Major institutional instrument for various of these goals: Cluster development policies with a sectorial and territorial approach.

11 Cluster and productive development policies The functions of cluster initiatives are: To accelerate learning, innovation, adoption of technologies and productivity, through interactive learning and discovery processes, benefiting from economies of agglomeration. To resolve coordination failures and facilitate publicprivate collaboration. To organize collective action: Promote the design and implementation of joint projects among enterprises that belong to the cluster and between those enterprises and other members of the cluster network, and make the provision of public inputs specific to the cluster more efficient. To invest in human talent specific to the cluster, resolve skills-mismatch problems and improve local labour markets.

12 Questions and Answers Where will the jobs in the Caribbean come from? From new engines of growth based on concrete economic activities: Tourism Financial services Creative industries Agriculture and agribusiness Green growth: Renewable energy, Blue Strong entrepreneurial ecosystems From formalization and a higher proportion of medium sized enterprises From Strong Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

13 Questions and Answers What are the policies and institutions needed to ensure that innovation and technological change create new and better forms of work? Policies: Productive Development Policies: Productive diversification, Productivity growth, Export growth, Investment attraction, Innovation, Education and skills. Institutions: Social dialogue institutions for productive transformation and employment Productivity and Competitiveness Councils Skills councils Dual Education & on the job training institutions

14 Questions and Answers How do we match the skills and training with the needs? Comprehensive approach to 21 st Century Skills Technological prospection On the job training and dual education Sectoral skills councils and social dialogue Better alignment of skills development policies with PDPs Skills recognition and certification National Qualification Systems

15 Cluster and productive development policies Cluster policies can be a powerful tool for promoting productivity, linkages, formalization, innovation, internationalization and quality employment: In 2010, there were more than 130 cluster development programmes in 31 European countries (European Cluster Observatory) In 2010, the US SBA launched more than 40 clusters throughout the country In the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country, the cluster development policy has been a key ingredient of PDPs, with great success CLUSTERS IN BASQUE COUNTRY ACEDE Basque Home Appliances Cluster AFM Machine Tools Cluster ACICAE Basque Automotive Cluster GAIA Electronics & ICT Cluster UNIPORT Port of Bilbao Cluster ACLIMA Basque Environmental Cluster YEAR Energy Cluster 1996 HEGAN Basque Aerospace Cluster Basque Maritime - Shipbuilding Cluster Paper Cluster 1998 EIKEN Basque Audiovisual Cluster 2004

16 Industrial and Cluster Policies in the Basque Country: Research, Technology and Innovation 128 Entities in the Basque Science & Technology System 4 Universities with more than 67,000 students Generation of knowledge: 9 BERCs: Basque Excellence Research Centres 7 CICs: Cooperation Research Centres (Research in biomedicine, biomaterials, nanosciences, advanced manufacturing, micro-technologies, energy, tourism) Technological Development: 2 leader platforms in Europe with 2,900 research professionals 6 Sectoral centres 6 Health R&D units 6 Public research entities 4 Science and technology parks with more than 15,000 people working in more than 400 enterprises All of that in a country with 2.5 million inhabitants! Source: R Monge and JM Salazar-Xirinachs, Políticas de Clusteres y de Desarrollo Productivo en la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco, ILO Americas, Technical Reports, #3, 2016.

17 CONCLUSION Growth and productive development A better future of work depends on the implementation of policies that foster productive development and human talent, to promote inclusive growth with more and better jobs.