Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast Update, 4Q03
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1 Forecast Analysis Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast Update, 4Q03 Abstract: Silicon wafer demand in 2003 will register an 8 percent increase over Demand will enter an expansion phase in the second quarter of 2004 and will grow 16 percent in 2004 and 14 percent in By Takashi Ogawa Strategic Forecast Statements The latest forecast indicates that silicon wafer demand for 2003 will grow 8 percent over the previous year. According to this forecast, a shipment adjustment in the third and fourth quarters will reduce annual growth slightly from the previous forecast. After the adjustment, we believe that silicon demand indicates a sustainable recovery, but the next three months will be critical for judging the trend. Silicon demand will enter an expansion phase in the second quarter in 2004 and should show sustainable growth throughout Demand in millions of square inches (MSI) will grow 16 percent in 2004 and 14 percent in Demand for 300-mm wafers has exhibited steady growth. Gartner Dataquest estimates the demand in the third quarter of 2003 was between 330,000 and 360,000 wafers per month, and it will grow to 400,000 wafers per month in the fourth quarter. In 2004, demand for 300-mm wafers will accelerate, and annual growth will surpass 50 percent. However, the demand forecast is influenced by the capacity utilization rate of wafer fabs, the progress of 300-mm wafer fab projects, and semiconductor investment. Publication Date:14 November 2003
2 2 Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast Update, 4Q03 Demand Outlook for 2003: 8 Percent Growth With an Adjustment in the Second Half Silicon wafer demand showed steady growth through the end of August 2003, with gradual recovery of device unit demand. We estimate that silicon demand for the first eight months of 2003 increased 5 percent on an area basis, compared with that during the same period of However, Gartner Dataquest believes that demand has not yet entered a sustainable growth phase supported by a clear driver. Nonetheless, demand increased by 8 percent in the second quarter over the first quarter. We must wait until the beginning of 2004 for clear signs that demand will move to a sustainable growth path. Fundamental conditions for silicon demand have improved as macroeconomic conditions have brightened. The three-month moving average of semiconductor device unit shipments shows steady growth. However, the monthly shipment level is still unstable, fluctuating seasonally. This pattern is reflected in silicon wafer unit volume, which fluctuates monthly. In the first eight months of 2003, shipment volume depended heavily on demand for 200-mm and 300-mm wafer. According to Gartner Dataquest's estimate, 200-mm wafer shipments from January through August of 2003 grew 5 percent over the same period of last year. Furthermore, 300-mm wafer shipments showed strong growth 77 percent during the same period. On the other hand, shipments of small wafers (below 150 mm in diameter) declined 4 percent year over year. This unbalanced growth picture over the past year is partially due to a strong rebound in small-wafer demand in the first half of However, the three-month moving average for small-wafer shipments was still in decline even in August of this year. For 300 mm, we believe that the present wafer demand is mostly generated by pilot or initial production lines with 300-mm wafer process, along with production of semiconductor devices for applications in the communications, consumer and dataprocessing segments. An increase in 300-mm fab activities, largely for testing and monitoring, is driving 300-mm wafer consumption. We estimate that about 70 percent of the area increment in wafer shipments through August came from 300-mm wafer demand. We have not yet recognized a sustainable recovery in demand for small wafers that are used for conventional semiconductor devices such as discrete and analog. Gartner Dataquest predicts that semiconductor demand will turn upward in 2004 because of a recovery of corporate IT investment. The latest semiconductor market forecast shows an 11 percent increase in 2003 and a 21 percent increase in 2004 to $210 billion (see "3Q03 Update: Global Semiconductor Forecast Scenarios," SEMC-WW-DP-0330). Behind the improved growth figure for 2003, we have raised our forecast of global cellular phone production to 443 million units and of PC production to 153 million units. At the same time, we assume a continued increase in device units and megabytes per system, or functional complexity of systems. In 2004, the corporate PC replacement cycle will generate increases in IT spending, and this will underpin a sustained semiconductor recovery Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 14 November 2003
3 Figure 1 shows the forecast of wafer demand by quarter. In the second quarter, wafer demand rose 8 percent over the first-quarter level as device demand increased in preparation for the year-end shopping season. In the third quarter, the industry is expected to undergo a shipment adjustment, resulting in moderate growth of 2 percent above the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, wafer shipments will be almost flat compared with the third quarter. Gartner Dataquest expects that wafer demand in 2003 will grow 8 percent over 2002, reaching 5,172 MSI. In 2004, fundamentals for wafer demand are expected to improve, with an anticipated general recovery of device demand to accompany the comeback of electronics demand especially for PCs as part of a better macroeconomic environment. In the first quarter of 2004, wafer demand is expected to be slow. However, steady and sustainable growth will start in the second quarter, when demand will increase about 10 percent above the first quarter. Furthermore, reinvigorated 300-mm fab projects will drive 300-mm wafer demand. Total wafer demand will gradually enter an expansion phase in the second half of The present forecast indicates that wafer demand in 2004 will grow 16 percent over the previous year to reach 5,980 MSI in the most likely case. As for other scenarios, the best case assumes that wafer demand will not show a severe shipment adjustment in the third and fourth quarters of 2003 and will ramp up early in The best case predicts an annual growth rate of 9 percent for 2003 and 22 percent for In contrast, the worst case assumes that the slow recovery in device unit demand will persist in the third and fourth quarters of 2003 and cause revenue to decrease in the first quarter of 2004, forcing the wafer industry to continue the shipment adjustments. The worst case predicts 7 percent growth in 2003 and only 8 percent growth in According to Gartner Dataquest's survey, the wafer inventory has declined since May 2003 but remains at a relatively high level. If wafer demand is smaller than the industry expects, it will restrain wafer shipments and may cause an inventory adjustment Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 14 November 2003
4 4 Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast Update, 4Q03 Figure 1 Silicon Quarterly Demand Profile by Scenario Millions of Square Inches 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Most Likely Case Best Case Worst Case 1, Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2003) Long-Term Forecast: Average Annual Growth of 9 Percent From 2002 Through 2008 In 2004, the semiconductor device market is expected to experience a strong recovery as firm growth resumes in wide application markets, including data processing and communications equipment. It will achieve an annual growth rate of 21 percent. In fact, we foresee a rise in semiconductor device average selling price (ASP). The three-month average price trend shows an upturn in May Incorporating this ASP trend and our fresh semiconductor device forecast with our forecast model, the most likely scenario for the wafer demand forecast was updated as shown in Figure 2. The trend in the update is not changed much from the previous forecast, but the expectation for demand growth was changed to 16 percent for 2004 and 14 percent for 2005 in the most likely scenario. In addition to the general recovery in semiconductor device demand, a major driver for wafer demand is the increasing demand for 300-mm wafers. Demand for 300-mm wafers will steadily rise from the current level between 330,000 and 360,000 wafers per month to 400,000 in the fourth quarter of Momentum will continue in 2004 and 2005, when several 300-mm projects will be undertaken to establish volume production capacity. The semiconductor market will move to a downcycle in late 2005 or early This is driven by an expectation for an oversupply situation as the industry has experienced frequently. In the wafer forecast, a downside risk 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 14 November 2003
5 Figure 2 Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast, exists for Gartner Dataquest's latest device market forecast expects a growth rate of 19 percent in If device demand (on a unit basis) grows firmly as predicted, wafer demand will maintain double-digit growth at 14 percent. On the other hand, if device unit demand rapidly enters the downcycle, the downside risk will be realized; wafer shipments will be adjusted severely as seen in the second half of In 2006, the device market will be in the downcycle, and device unit demand will be restrained. As a result, wafer demand could become almost flat over the previous year. In 2007, we expect that device prices will start to recover gradually, but unit demand will not show a full recovery, generating 5 percent growth in wafer demand. In 2008, wafer demand should revive, driven by strengthening device demand. At that time, wafer demand for leading-device production will shift to 300-mm wafers, so that the rise in activity relating to nextgeneration devices will accelerate growth of 300-mm demand. In all, wafer demand in 2008 will regain momentum and return to double-digit growth at 14 percent. Gartner Dataquest predicts that silicon wafer demand will achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 percent from 2002 through 2008, reaching about 8,200 MSI in Millions of Square Inches 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2003) 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 14 November 2003
6 6 Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast Update, 4Q03 Gartner Dataquest Perspective The latest demand outlook shows steady growth in 2003 without a clear sign of strong sustainable growth. However, the fundamentals have certainly improved, and we expect to see a gradual increase of wafer demand starting in the middle of the first quarter in Gartner Dataquest believes that the silicon industry will experience a real upcycle in However, the scenario from recovery to growth is by no means free from uncertainty, and actual demand will undergo fluctuations, requiring vendors to be resilient in meeting demand. Therefore, the industry still needs to keep a flexible attitude for its decision-making process for the next six months. Especially, we need to watch price trends carefully. Until the first half of this year, the ASP was still in a downward trend, although demand showed steady growth in general. Responding to this severe situation, several silicon vendors announced that they would close some facilities. We believe that the general price trend will move to an upturn in the second half of the next year. However, we expect that the companies' rationalization efforts in their operations will continue even in the next upcycle, to adapt to new business circumstances with lower profit margins. Especially, midsize silicon vendors will be forced to take more countermeasures to protect their livelihood if the downtrend in price is prolonged. Key Issue What is the size and projected growth of the semiconductor manufacturing market and supply chain elements? This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: SEMC-WW-DP-0347 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice
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