IBISWorld Sector Analysis: Manufacturing

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1 January July Sector Follow Manufacturing on head on Master page A July 2015 IBISWorld Sector Analysis: Manufacturing By Will McKitterick, Maksim Soshkin and Darryle Ulama Although several subsectors of American manufacturing are in decline, many areas are experiencing growth. Much of the decline in manufacturing s share of the economy has been relative The demise of American manufacturing has become a familiar headline. Technological change, deregulation, outsourcing and increasingly competitive foreign producers all continue to do their part in hollowing out the US industrial base. As a result, over the 10-year period to 2015, manufacturing s share of the US economy (as measured by industry value added*) is expected to fall from 10.7% to 8.1%. Similarly, US manufacturing employment is anticipated to fall 15.6% over the same period. However, much of the decline in manufacturing s share of the economy has been relative, with the service economy expanding at a far faster pace. In reality, many manufacturing industries have continued to expand, and the United States remains one of the largest manufacturers in the world. The following analysis showcases six manufacturing subsectors that have experienced the highest gains and losses over the past decade. Expanding subsectors Chemical manufacturing Chemical manufacturing is the largest, and one of the most successful, components of manufacturing in the United States; the subsector accounts for about 16.0% of total manufacturing value added in Chemical manufacturers produce a wide range of primary, intermediate and end products, including everything from plastics and resin to vitamins and explosives. Chemical manufacturing is expected to generate about $893.3 billion in revenue and employ 777,000 people this year. Chemical manufacturing owes its success to a number of its largest component industries, which have grown relatively quickly over the past five years. One of these industries is the Organic Chemical Manufacturing industry (IBISWorld report 32519), which accounts for a substantial 12.3% of the chemical manufacturing subsector s value added. This industry, which provides raw materials to different downstream manufacturers, has been fueled by strong export growth to emerging market countries, such as China. Chemical manufacturing has also benefited from rapid growth in the Generic Pharmaceuticals industry (IBISWorld report 32541b) and the Vitamin and Supplements industry (IBISWorld report 32541d) due to rising health consciousness and the growing US population. The chemical manufacturing subsector has received its largest boost from the Petrochemical Manufacturing industry info@ibisworld.com

2 July (IBISWorld report 32511), whose value added has grown at an annualized rate of 10.5% between 2010 and 2015 to account for 11.5% of the subsector. The United States has undergone an energy revolution in recent years due to the advent of fracking and horizontal drilling technology, which has made hydrocarbons more accessible than ever before. This drop in the price of natural gas, a primary input to petrochemicals, has made the industry extremely profitable; IBISWorld estimates the average industry operator will achieve profit as high as 19.6% of revenue in Overall, the entire chemical manufacturing subsector is projected to continue expanding over the next five years, with its revenue surpassing the $1.0-trillion mark in Machinery manufacturing The production of capital equipment has been another bright spot in the country s manufacturing activity. The machinery manufacturing subsector includes a range of industries that produce capital equipment necessary in construction, semiconductor production, agriculture, food processing, printing, and oil and gas, among others. In the 10 years to 2015, IBISWorld expects the subsector s industry value-added to grow at an annualized rate of 1.7%. Additionally, employment in machinery manufacturing has increased at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the five years to 2015, totaling over 1.0 million employees. Machinery manufacturing s rely on demand from their distinct downstream markets, which have experienced growth over the past five years. For example, the Construction Machinery Manufacturing industry (IBISWorld report 33312), which produces bulldozers, cranes and crawler tractors, is anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% in the five years to 2015, posting revenue equal to $47.7 billion. Driving this growth is the revival of domestic construction activity, Industry Share of Manufacturing Value Added (% 2015) % *Might not add up to 100% due to rounding Miscellaneous Manufacturing 3.7% Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 1.4% Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 14.7% Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing 2.4% Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 8.1% Machinery Manufacturing 8.7% Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 8.7% Primary Metal Manufacturing 4.6% Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 2.6% Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 4.4% Chemical Manufacturing 16.0% Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing 3.6% Printing and Related Support Activities 2.2% Paper Manufacturing 2.9% Wood Product Manufacturing 1.7% Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing 0.1% Apparel Manufacturing 0.3% Textile Product Mills 0.2% Textile Mills 0.8% Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 2.7% Food Manufacturing 10.1% SOURCE: IBISWORLD

3 July as the economy moves beyond the depths of the recession. The Semiconductor Machinery Manufacturing industry (IBISWorld report 33329a) is expected to grow more slowly, with revenue increasing at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the five years to 2015 to $11.7 billion. While the machinery manufacturing subsector is projected to continue growing over the next five years, its pace will slow. Moreover, despite favorable employment growth during the outlook period, certain machinery manufacturers will likely incorporate advanced robotics in their production processes in the next five to 10 years, resulting in higher productivity. Fabricated metal product manufacturing Over the past decade, one of the more successful manufacturing subsectors in the United States has been fabricated metal product manufacturing, generating the third-fastest value-added growth in manufacturing. Fabricated metal product manufacturers primarily transform metal into intermediate or end products through processes such as forging, stamping, bending, forming and machining. In 2015, the subsector is expected to be the sixth-largest manufacturer in the economy, generating $361.3 billion in revenue and employing 1.3 million people. The subsector s performance can be linked to its vital role in the US manufacturing supply chain and increasing exports. In particular, exports share of revenue within the subsector has climbed from 6.7% in 2005 to an expected 10.9% in The largest and fastest-growing exporter in this subsector has been the Valve Manufacturing industry (IBISWorld report 33291). The industry accounts for over one-third of the subsector s exports, leveraging its know-how in oil, gas, refinery and pipeline- related valve manufacturing to win business abroad. On the domestic side, valve manufacturers, as well as those that produce tanks and heat Industry Value Added Annualized Growth Chemical Manufacturing Machinery Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Primary Metal Manufacturing Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing Miscellaneous Manufacturing Paper Manufacturing Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing Wood Product Manufacturing Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing Printing and Related Support Activities Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing Apparel Manufacturing % SOURCE: IBISWORLD

4 July exchangers, have been able to benefit from the country s large oil, gas, refining and petrochemical sectors. Over the next five years, the subsector is expected to continue growing; however, the recent plunge in oil prices may temper demand for its resource-related products. Contracting subsectors Apparel manufacturing The Apparel Manufacturing subsector has experienced a prolonged decline over the past 10 years. The United States has lost about 90.0% of its apparel manufacturing jobs over the past two decades due to high import penetration. Imports as a share of domestic demand have increased from 75.9% in 2005 to 92.5% in Apparel manufacturing in general is a highly labor-intensive process, and minimum wage standards in the United States are high compared with other countries. This has driven many producers to move offshore to countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, where wages are more competitive. Overall, this migration has translated into an annualized decline of 0.6% in the number of apparel manufacturing enterprises over the past 10 years. Apparel manufacturing revenue has similarly fallen at a rate of 11.5% per year on average to $8.8 billion in Today, this subsector represents a paltry 0.3% of manufacturing value added, down from 0.7% in As manufacturers move overseas, capital investments in this subsector will continue to dwindle domestically. Operators find little need to spend money on new machinery when the production process is done primarily by hand in low labor-cost countries. However, the industry is expected to benefit from reshoring, as it becomes increasingly expensive to produce in China, and industry operators begin looking to other countries, including the United States, as potential hubs for production operations. This movement should decrease the rate of revenue decline within the industry, but is not expected to induce a recovery. Printing and related support activities Among the manufacturing industries that have experienced the most dramatic decline are those involved in printing books, lithographs, business forms and other paper products. IBISWorld expects the printing subsector s industry valueadded to decline at an annualized rate of 4.6% in the 10 years to 2015, representing one of the steepest within the manufacturing sector. This subsector is dominated by the Printing industry (IBISWorld report 32311), which is expected to generate over 90.0% of the subsector s revenue in In the five years to 2015, IBISWorld expects revenue for the Printing industry to contract at an average annual rate of 1.3% to $82.7 billion. This decline in printing has been the result of consumers and businesses increasingly relying on digital forms for communication and media purposes. Additionally, the increasing price of paper and consistent decline in print advertising has contributed to the subsector s atrophy. Over the next five years, this sector is projected to continue declining. In particular, digital adoption and replacement will likely accelerate, placing greater pressure on printing operators. Greater adoption of smartphones and the rollout of cloud computing and next generation internet connectivity will mark the turn towards digital content. Furniture and related product manufacturing One of the worst-performing subsectors within US manufacturing has been furniture and related product manufacturing, with its share of the US economy expected to more than half in the 10 years to The companies in this subsector produce everything from

5 July About IBISWorld Inc. Recognized as the nation s most trusted independent source of industry and market research, IBISWorld offers a comprehensive database of unique information and analysis on every US industry. With an extensive online portfolio, valued for its depth and scope, the company equips clients with the insight necessary to make better business decisions. Headquartered in Los Angeles, IBISWorld serves a range of business, professional service and government organizations through more than 10 locations worldwide. For more information, visit or call cabinets to mattresses. The Household Furniture Manufacturing (IBISWorld report 33712) and Office Furniture Manufacturing (IBISWorld report 33721) industries account for about two-thirds of the subsector s $75.1 billion in revenue. Over the past decade, this subsector was hit hard by the housing market crash and climbing import penetration. The housing crash and the subsequent recession caused furniture manufacturing to significantly contract, as households held off furniture purchases and businesses withheld similar investments. However, the subsector s long-term problem lies with highly competitive imports. In particular, low-cost imports from countries such as China have undercut domestic producers. Moreover, foreign competition further intensified as the recession hit and consumers became far more price conscious. From 2005 to 2015, imports share of domestic demand is expected to rise from 23.3% to 32.6%. Faced with a weakened domestic market and import substitution, many subsector players went bankrupt or restructured. Consequently, sector employment fell by nearly 40.0% over the past 10 years, to about 344,000 people. Over the next five years, a recovering housing market and economy will help improve the subsector s performance. Nonetheless, it will continue to shrink due to import substitution. *Industry value added measures an industry s contribution to the economy and the wealth it creates by labor, depreciation and profit. Contact: Media Relations media@ibisworld.com IBISWorld Sales & Subscriptions Phone:

6 At IBISWorld we know that industry intelligence is more than assembling facts. It is combining data with analysis to answer the questions that successful businesses ask. Identify high growth, emerging and shrinking markets Arm yourself with the latest industry intelligence Assess competitive threats from existing and new entrants Benchmark your performance against the competition Make speedy market-ready, profit-maximizing decisions Who is IBISWorld? We are strategists, analysts, researchers and marketers. We provide answers to information-hungry, time-poor businesses. Our goal is to give you the real-world answers that matter to your business in our 700 US industry reports. When tough strategic, budget, sales and marketing decisions need to be made, our suite of Industry and Risk intelligence products give you deeply researched answers quickly. IBISWorld Membership IBISWorld offers tailored membership packages to meet your needs. Join and become an industry expert! Disclaimer This product has been supplied by IBISWorld Inc. ( IBISWorld ) solely for use by its authorized licensees strictly in accordance with their license agreements with IBISWorld. IBISWorld makes no representation to any other person with regard to the completeness or accuracy of the data or information contained herein, and it accepts no responsibility and disclaims all liability (save for liability which cannot be lawfully disclaimed) for loss or damage whatsoever suffered or incurred by any other person resulting from the use of, or reliance upon, the data or information contained herein. Copyright in this publication is owned by IBISWorld Inc. The publication is sold on the basis that the purchaser agrees not to copy the material contained within it for other than the purchasers own purposes. In the event that the purchaser uses or quotes from the material in this publication in papers, reports, or opinions prepared for any other person it is agreed that it will be sourced to: IBISWorld Inc. Copyright IBISWorld Inc.

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