Karl Friston National Hospital, Institute for Neurology, Wellcome Dept. Cogn. Neurology, London, UK

Transcription

1 Springer Complexity Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the best research and academic-level teaching on both fundamental and applied aspects of complex systems cutting across all traditional disciplines of the natural and life sciences, engineering, economics, medicine, neuroscience, social and computer science. Complex Systems are systems that comprise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macroscopic collective behavior the manifestations of which are the spontaneous formation of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. Models of such systems can be successfully mapped onto quite diverse real-life situations like the climate, the coherent emission of light from lasers, chemical reaction-diffusion systems, biological cellular networks, the dynamics of stock markets and of the internet, earthquake statistics and prediction, freeway traffic, the human brain, or the formation of opinions in social systems, to name just some of the popular applications. Although their scope and methodologies overlap somewhat, one can distinguish the following main concepts and tools: self-organization, nonlinear dynamics, synergetics, turbulence, dynamical systems, catastrophes, instabilities, stochastic processes, chaos, graphs and networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, genetic algorithms and computational intelligence. The two major book publication platforms of the Springer Complexity program are the monograph series Understanding Complex Systems focusing on the various applications of complexity, and the Springer Series in Synergetics, which is devoted to the quantitative theoretical and methodological foundations. In addition to the books in these two core series, the program also incorporates individual titles ranging from textbooks to major reference works. Editorial and Programme Advisory Board Péter Érdi Center for Complex Systems Studies, Kalamazoo College, USA and Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary Karl Friston National Hospital, Institute for Neurology, Wellcome Dept. Cogn. Neurology, London, UK Hermann Haken Center of Synergetics, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany Janusz Kacprzyk System Research, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Scott Kelso Center for Complex Systems and Brain Sciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, USA Jürgen Kurths Nonlinear Dynamics Group, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany Linda Reichl Department of Physics, Prigogine Center for Statistical Mechanics, University of Texas, Austin, USA Peter Schuster Theoretical Chemistry and Structural Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Frank Schweitzer System Design, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland Didier Sornette Entrepreneurial Risk, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

2 Understanding Complex Systems Founding Editor: J.A. Scott Kelso Future scientific and technological developments in many fields will necessarily depend upon coming to grips with complex systems. Such systems are complex in both their composition typically many different kinds of components interacting simultaneously and nonlinearly with each other and their environments on multiple levels and in the rich diversity of behavior of which they are capable. The Springer Series in Understanding Complex Systems series (UCS) promotes new strategies and paradigms for understanding and realizing applications of complex systems research in a wide variety of fields and endeavors. UCS is explicitly transdisciplinary. It has three main goals: First, to elaborate the concepts, methods and tools of complex systems at all levels of description and in all scientific fields, especially newly emerging areas within the life, social, behavioral, economic, neuroand cognitive sciences (and derivatives thereof); second, to encourage novel applications of these ideas in various fields of engineering and computation such as robotics, nano-technology and informatics; third, to provide a single forum within which commonalities and differences in the workings of complex systems may be discerned, hence leading to deeper insight and understanding. UCS will publish monographs, lecture notes and selected edited contributions aimed at communicating new findings to a large multidisciplinary audience.

3 D. Helbing (Ed.) Managing Complexity: Insights, Concepts, Applications With 145 Figures and 13 Tables 123

4 Dirk Helbing TU Dresden Institut für Wirtschaft und Verkehr Andreas-Schubert-Str Dresden Germany ETH Zurich Chair of Sociology, in particular of Modelling and Simulation UNO D11, Universitätstr Zurich Switzerland Library of Congress Control Number: ISBN: e-isbn: c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover Design: WMXDesign GmbH, Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper springer.com

5 Editorial Dirk Helbing 1,2 1 Chair of Sociology, in particular of Modeling & Simulation, ETH Zurich UNO D11, Universitätstrasse 41, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland dhelbing@ethz.ch 2 Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Study Szentháromság utca 2, H-1014 Budapest, Hungary As promising as the recent discoveries regarding the functioning, adaptiveness and robustness of complex physical, biological, and socio-economic systems may be, their potential has not yet been broadly recognized in business, industry, public organizations, administrations, and governments. This is mostly because these findings have not yet entered curricula of standard study directions and due to the scarcity of real-world applications, at least published ones. Therefore, this book aims at increasing the awareness for the relevance of the science of complex systems for collective decision making and cooperation in social networks, disaster, crisis and risk management, the operation of information and traffic systems, the resilience of supply systems, counter-intuitive effects of management strategies, the prediction and control of systems with non-linearities, delays, and imperfect information, the interaction of boundedly rational agents, and many more problems. This book presents the most interesting contributions to the international workshop on Potentials of Complexity Science for Business, Governments, and the Media held at the Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Study from August 3 5, It was further enriched by contributions reflecting other important activities in the field that could not be covered in Budapest. Altogether, this volume intends to tranfer the recent knowledge of the behavior of complex systems to various fields of practical applications. At the same time, it intends to stimulate more intensive research in this promising and important area of science in the future. The presentation is oriented at a general, scientifically interested audience in order fascinate and inspire both, newcomers and experts by the large variety of concepts and ideas presented. Budapest, July 19, 2006 Dirk Helbing

6 vi D. Helbing Acknowledgments: D.H. would like to thank the Coordination Action GIACS for financial support within the EU NEST program, Imre Kondor and the Collegium Budapest for their great hospitality, Peter Felten, Tünde Szabolcs, Dietmar Huber, Fred Girod, Agnes Forgo, Vera Kempa, Martina Seifert, Anne Höner and the GIACS team at ISI Torino for their phantastic organizational support, which made this workshop possible.

7 Contents Managing Complexity: An Introduction Dirk Helbing, Stefan Lämmer... 1 Part I Markets and Business Market Segmentation: The Network Approach Jörg Reichardt, Stefan Bornholdt Managing Autonomy and Control in Economic Systems Markus Christen, Georges Bongard, Attila Pausits, Norbert Stoop, Ruedi Stoop Complexity and the Enterprise: The Illusion of Control Karl G. Kempf Part II Logistics and Production Benefits and Drawbacks of Simple Models for Complex Production Systems Oliver Rose Logistics Networks: Coping with Nonlinearity and Complexity Karsten Peters, Thomas Seidel, Stefan Lämmer, Dirk Helbing Repeated Auction Games and Learning Dynamics in Electronic Logistics Marketplaces Miguel A. Figliozzi, Hani S. Mahmassani, Patrick Jaillet...137

8 viii Contents Part III Traffic Decentralized Approaches to Adaptive Traffic Control Arne Kesting, Martin Schönhof, Stefan Lämmer, Martin Treiber, Dirk Helbing Critical Infrastructures Vulnerability: The Highway Networks Limor Issacharoff, Stefan Lämmer, Vittorio Rosato, Dirk Helbing Part IV Critical Infrastructures and Systemic Risks Trade Credit Networks and Systemic Risk Stefano Battiston, Domenico Delli Gatti, Mauro Gallegati A Complex System s View of Critical Infrastructures Vittorio Rosato, Ingve Simonsen, Sandro Meloni, Limor Issacharoff, Karsten Peters, Nils von Festenberg, Dirk Helbing Part V Information Systems Bootstrapping the Long Tail in Peer to Peer Systems Bernardo A. Huberman, Fang Wu Coping with Information Overload through Trust-Based Networks Frank E. Walter, Stefano Battiston, Frank Schweitzer Part VI Conflict and Consensus Complexity in Human Conflict Neil F. Johnson Fostering Consensus in Multidimensional Continuous Opinion Dynamics under Bounded Confidence Jan Lorenz Multi-Stakeholder Governance - Emergence and Transformational Potential of a New Political Paradigm Bertrand de La Chapelle...335

9 Contents ix Part VII Network Design Evolutionary Engineering of Complex Functional Networks Pablo Kaluza, Hiroshi Kori, Alexander S. Mikhailov Path Length Scaling and Discrete Effects in Complex Networks Julian Sienkiewicz, Agata Fronczak, Piotr Fronczak, Krzysztof Suchecki, Janusz A. Ho lyst Index...389