June 17, 2016 Transportation Coordinating Committee

Transcription

1 June 17, 2016 Transportation Coordinating Committee

2 Approach and Schedule

3 Exploratory Planning Process EXPLORATORY PLANNING Testing the effects of multiple trends on many outcomes, including transportation and land use, in order to adopt the most resilient strategies STEEP Societal/Demographic Technology Economy Environment & Energy Policy & Government

4 Identified Drivers of Change Social and Demographic Aging of Population Spatial, Racial, and Economic Inequity Telecommuting Online Shopping Technology Adoption of ADA s and Autonomous/ Connected Vehicles Use and Affordability of Ride-share and Car-share Options Advanced ITS Alternative Fuel Vehicles Economic Emerging Global Middle Class Jobs in Serviceand Technologybased Industries requiring Specialized Education Increase in East Coast Port Traffic Environment & Energy Natural Resource Constraints Intensity and Unpredictability of Weather Conditions External Factors Influencing Local Water Supply Policy and Government Alternative Financing Options & Long-Term Funding Sustainability Privatization and PPP s in Transportation Financing Climate Change Regulations at the Federal, State, & Local Level Congestion Road Pricing & VMT Taxes

5 Stakeholder Input National and regional stakeholder survey input ARC Committee Discussions - February 2016 Stakeholder Advisory Committee - March 2016 ARC Board Working Session - April 2016 Project Team Work Session- April 2016

6 National and Regional Stakeholder Input Social and Demographic Aging of Population Spatial, Racial, and Economic Inequity Telecommuting Online Shopping Technology Adoption of ADA s and Autonomous/ Connected Vehicles Use and Affordability of Ride-share and Car-share Options Advanced ITS Alternative Fuel Vehicles Economic Emerging Global Middle Class Jobs in Serviceand Technologybased Industries requiring Specialized Education Increase in East Coast Port Traffic Environment & Energy Natural Resource Constraints Intensity and Unpredictability of Weather Conditions External Factors Influencing Local Water Supply Policy and Government Alternative Financing Options & Long-Term Funding Sustainability Privatization and PPP s in Transportation Financing Climate Change Regulations at the Federal, State, & Local Level Congestion Road Pricing & VMT Taxes

7 Stakeholder Advisory Committee Feedback OVERARCHING THEMES Mobility options are changing/expanding with advent of autonomous vehicles and ride hailing services New business models are disrupting transportation logistics Migration patterns are increasingly more complicated and impactful

8 ARC Board Feedback The policy component is critical- it s important to craft policies that can prepare for an uncertain future. Local leaders would benefit from knowing the potential impacts of trends and scenarios on future government revenue. National/international trends and impacts on local communities.

9 Traditional Scenario Development Process SHIFTS IN LAND USES EXISTING MODEL RESULTS NEW TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS

10 NCHRP Report 750 What if business is not as usual?

11 The value of exploratory scenario planning Allows us to look at current and projected issues from multiple perspectives so our plans are dynamic, emergent and resilient.

12 The pace of change is accelerating

13 Impacts 2050 Scenarios (NCHRP 750) The Atlanta Region was one of five analyzed by the research team using the Impacts 2050 model, which considers socio-demographic changes on travel patterns and behavior.

14 Momentum Scenario (NCHRP 750)

15 Global Chaos Scenario (NCHRP 750)

16 Tech Triumph Scenario (NCHRP 750)

17 Gentle Footprint Scenario (NCHRP 750)

18 Key Drivers of Alternate Futures (Metro Atlanta) Universe of Drivers of Change Key Drivers of Change for the Atlanta Region SOCIAL Autonomous Vehicles TECHNOLOGY ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL National Expert Review Process Stakeholder Survey Aging of the Population Intelligent Infrastructure / Technology Spatial, Racial and Economic Equity Transportation Finance Structure Ridesharing / Carsharing Climate Change Regulations Water Supply Port Traffic

19 Predicting the Future is Impossible I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. - Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman (1943)

20 A Few Plausible Outcomes of Key Drivers AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Some roadway expansion projects are no longer necessary due to improved safety and platooning The opportunity cost of travel time decreases, resulting in longer and more frequent trips AGING OF THE POPULATION Older adults have difficulty adapting to the rapid changes in technology required to get around by auto, resulting in greater demand for access to traditional transit services Older adults who are no longer able to drive flock to communities which offer publicly accessible autonomous vehicle fleets

21 A Few Plausible Outcomes of Key Drivers INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE / TECHNOLOGY Holoworking, a more immersive evolution of the teleworking concept, has enabled a majority of office workers to work from home on a regular basis Major data breaches within the financial sector led to an epidemic of identify theft in the 2020s, leading to a backlash towards technology which relies on the use of personal information SPATIAL, RACIAL AND ECONOMIC EQUITY Installation and maintenance of solar panels and green roofs becomes a major growth industry in the region, providing good wages for trained workers Affordable and reliable robotics, combined with secure automated payment schemes, decimates the demand for low skill positions such as fast food workers and sales clerks

22 A Few Plausible Outcomes of Key Drivers TRANSPORTATION FINANCE STRUCTURE Almost 100% of available funding is dedicated to ITS and state of good repair projects to ensure the system operates at maximum efficiency Economic stagnation generates a strong anti-tax backlash that results in the failure of most future SPLOST votes RIDESHARING / CARSHARING ATL Transit, the successor agency to MARTA, forges a unique partnership with Uber to help riders share rides to and from rail stations using their Breeze2.0 cards Under the belief that autonomous vehicles would soon be a reality, the region s TDM programs are allowed to languish

23 A Few Plausible Outcomes of Key Drivers CLIMATE CHANGE REGULATIONS With little to no government involvement or economic impacts, the pace of technological advancements has managed to stabilize the level of greenhouse gases Atlanta becomes the destination of choice for millions of climate refugees from southern Florida and the Georgia / South Carolina low country WATER SUPPLY The Water Wars, definitively decided in Georgia s favor, are a distant memory and the region continues to be good steward of our limited resources Georgia suffers a decisive loss in the Water Wars and the size of the metro area begins to contract swiftly as water intensive suburban areas become unsustainable

24 A Few Plausible Outcomes of Key Drivers PORT TRAFFIC Normalization of relations with Cuba leads to an economic resurgence similar to China takes root, resulting in a trade boom with the Port of Savannah becoming our country s new front door to Havana Public backlash to increasing volumes of trucks leads to a ban on the development of additional distribution and warehousing facilities in the southern half of the region

25 Defining Alternate Futures for Metro Atlanta NCHRP 75 IMPACTS 2050 SCENARIOS PROJECT TEAM WORKSHOP (April 2016) Are the original Impacts 2050 assumptions valid? Is not, what is a better assumption? What potential impacts or outcomes are plausible in our region under each scenario?

26 Atlanta s Alternate Futures (Working Titles) DAMN THE TORPEDOES ROBOT OVERLORDS LEMONADE FROM LEMONS SPEAKING FOR THE TREES

27 Damn the Torpedoes This alternate future most closely mirrors current forecasts and projections, but is perhaps slightly more aggressive in accelerating existing trends. It is essentially a "business as usual" approach where development patterns are driven by current lifestyle preferences and the ability to maximize the short term financial return on investment, but are slow to respond to significant long term shifts in demographics. SAMPLE POLICY CONSIDERATIONS Is society actually ready to embrace autonomous vehicles? How do you balance freight movement needs with safety and quality of life concerns of residents?

28 Robot Overlords In this alternate future, technological advances have vastly improved the quality of life for those who have the means to stay abreast of and take advantage of the innovations. But the pace of change has overwhelmed our ability to fully address the negative consequences it could produce for those on the margins, as well as to the general fabric of society. SAMPLE POLICY CONSIDERATIONS How do we ensure that everybody benefits from advances in technology? Are older adults financially secure enough to live longer lives?

29 Lemonade from Lemons In this alternate future, the conditions which helped fuel the region's growth over the past several decades have reversed and many of the hopeful forecasts from earlier in the century have not been realized. We now face strong headwinds that require reentrenchment and charting a new course for being successful in a world in which uncertainty represents the new normal. SAMPLE POLICY CONSIDERATIONS How can the region continue to prosper in a resource constrained future? Is the region capable of coping with a devolution of the federal transportation program?

30 Speaking for the Trees In this alternate future, sustainability has risen to the forefront of public consciousness. Whether motivated by concerns over pollution and climate change, a personal ambition to lead a simpler lifestyle, the belief that the Earth is a divine gift which must be protected, or opportunities to make money in new markets, a new environmental ethic has taken root and united people across all political viewpoints in the common goal of being better stewards of the planet. SAMPLE POLICY CONSIDERATIONS What are the ramifications of more ridesharing on our infrastructure needs? Is our transportation system resilient enough to overcome more frequent and severe weather events?

31 Alternate Futures Analysis Process KEY DRIVERS ALTERNATE FUTURES SHRP2 ANALYSIS FUTURE? IMPACTS 2050 MODEL RSPM MODEL REMI MODEL ACTIVITY BASED MODEL OTHERS?

32 Discussion What s your reaction to the plan process? Is it relevant to your work? What do you think of the alternate futures? Have we captured the range of possibilities? Are they plausible? Are we missing any key metrics that would yield important analytic results? Are you aware of other tools we should consider using?

33 June 16, 2016 Stakeholder Advisory Committee