2016 Quest Offshore Resources Inc.
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2 Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this presentation regarding Quest Offshore Resources or its management's intentions, beliefs or expectations, or that otherwise speak to future events, are "forward-looking statements. Future results and developments discussed in these statements may be affected by numerous factors and risks, such as the accuracy of the assumptions that underlie the statements, the success of the oil and gas exploration and production industry, drilling results, uncertainties in interpreting market data, changes in laws and regulations, the ability to respond to challenges in international markets, including changes in currency exchange rates, political or economic conditions, trade and regulatory matters, general economic conditions, and other factors and risks. Actual results and developments may differ materially from those expressed or implied in this presentation. =COPYRIGHT NOTICE= Please refer to the licensing terms of your SSA Subscription Service Agreement for terms of use. We ask that you cite Quest as a source when utilizing and presenting Quest information in reports, articles, memos and presentations both internal and external to your organization. Please note: Distribution or use of Quest Data Analytics outside the agreed terms of your subscription is strictly prohibited and we appreciate your cooperation in upholding these requests.. Any queries or questions in this respect can ed to: corp@questoffshore.com. 2
3 Strategic Data & Market Research Consultancy Practice News Publications Technical Conferences 3
4 Quest Offshore Resources: Offshore Market Coverage QSAT Natural Gas Crude Oil LNG Quest Deepwater Drilling Package Quest Subsea Wellhead Database Quest Floating Rig Commitments (Total Well Demand) Quest Global Prospects Quest Field Development Report Quest Enhanced Deepwater Database Quest Deepwater Shipyard Outlook Quest FPS Database Quest Marine Construction Vessels Quest Subsea Database Quest Subsea Production Umbilical Database Quest Deepwater Supply Chain Analysis Quest Pipeline Perspective Quest Vessel Cost Model 4
5 5
6 Macro Market Indicators 6
7 Major Project Awards by Oil Price Inflation Adjusted Average Brent Oil Price In Sanction Year GDF Gjoa 05 Long-term Opportunities: Increased/stable oil & natural gas price More efficient development executions Growing natural gas demand Phased projects & shorter cycle times IOC s operating in Brazil BP Na Kika 00 BP Atlantis 01 Maersk Culzean 15 Shell Appomatox -15 CVX Agbami 04 Statoil Johann Sverdrup 15 BP Greater Plutonio - 04 ENI OCTP -15 Anadarko Constitution 04 Murphy Kikeh -04 ENI Goliat -09 Total Akpo 05 CVX Tahiti 09 BHP Neptune PB Roncador 3&4, 05&09 Total Girassol -98 Statoil Snorre B -98 XOM Kizomba A-C PB Marlim - 99 PB Marlim Leste XOM Hoover Diana -97 CVX Petronious -97 Long-term Challenges: Larger scale projects More complicated projects Most of the easy reserves are found Less capacity/people to execute higher project volumes Low exploration leading to reduced inventories of discoveries <$20 <$30 <$40 <$50 <$60 <$70 Source: Quest Offshore Resources
8 Price per Barrel Oil Price vs IOC Return on Capital Employed Inflation Adjusted Average Brent Oil Price In Sanction Year % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 0% Year Avg. Inflation Adjust Brent Price IOC Avg. Return on Capital Employed Source: Y Charts; Quest Offshore Resources Inc.
9 Changing Deepwater Project Economics Drivers for Step-Change 100% Capex Allocation SPS & SURF 35% Step-Change to Reduced Cost, Risk & Inefficiency 35% The New Net 8% FAB & FAC 25% 30% 24% 12% DRLG 40% 60% 0% Current Cost Structure Deflation, Replication, Efficiency, Standardization Potential Net Savings 44%
10 Deepwater Drilling Market 10
11 Cumulative Floating Rig Count Floating Rigs Stacking Up floating rigs currently out of work Nearly 50% are >18 years old % 100 Cold Stacked 48% 32% Warm Stacked 72% >75% idled in past 12 months 20% J A N - 16 Year Stacked <9 yrs old 9-18 yrs old >18 yrs old Key take-away s Demand for new contracts in 2016 are very limited as a result rigs are being idled weekly. In January alone 18 more rigs went off contract and seven contracted rigs were idled. Over 75% rigs have been stacked in past 12 months. Drilling contractors absorbing much higher costs keeping rigs warm stacked ($40,000-$100,000+/day based on rig type) Based on age alone almost 60 floating rigs could be retired today (48%) accounts for ~1.3BN annual costs 60% of those older units are warm stacked and 40% are owned by Diamond and Transocean Among rigs 9-18 years old (4 th & 5 th gen), half are still warm stacked and should be cold stacked Among rigs <9 years old (6 th & 7 th gen) the majority are warm stacked rigs most likely to re-enter market but also the most expensive to keep warm. Estimate total spend just under $1BN annual (and growing).
12 Spud Count Total Well Demand % decline in total well demand over five year forecast period 48% 52% % 43% e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e Spud Year Exploration Development Key take-away s Quest is currently forecasting just over 2200 new wells to be drilled from (just under 20% drilled in 2015). Just over 3,060 wells were drilled as comparison. Exploration drilling hardest hit with double-digit declines in every region except U.S. Gulf which experienced a drilling moratorium in Exploration activity now expected to account for ~40% of all drilling versus over 50% in previous period. From new well counts ranged from spuds per year Based on oil price benchmarks below $50/bbl. average for 2016, our view is that the ramp-up in drilling will be much more gradual than the decline and it is highly unlikely that well counts will exceed 500 before 2019.
13 Development Overview 13
14 Discoveries by Year Announced (1908) Global discoveries trending down since % Number of Discoveries % 49% Discovery Year Africa Med Asia Pacific North America North Sea South America
15 Greenfield Project Ct Global Deepwater Project Executions - Greenfield Long-term Opportunities: Increase/stable oil & natural gas price More efficient development executions Permanent cost reductions Shorter cycle times (more phased developments) IOC operating in Brazil Long-term Challenges: Lower for longer oil price Larger scale projects More complicated projects Most of the easy reserves are found Less capacity/people to execute higher volume of complicated projects Execution Year Africa/Medit. (Mean Case) North America (Mean Case) South America (Mean Case) Global (Base Case) Asia Pacific/Middle East (Mean Case) North Sea (Mean Case) Global (High Case) 15
16 Subsea Tree Demand Outlook 16
17 Number of Subsea Tree Awards Near-Term Impact on Global Subsea Market (Mean Case) Award Year fsw (Mean Case Nov 2015) fsw (Mean Case Nov 2015) 5001+fsw (Mean Case Nov 2015) High Case (Prelim Feb 2016) Mean Case (Prelim Feb 2016) Base Case (Prelim Feb 2016) 17
18 # Subsea Tree Awards Top 10 Operators Subsea Tree Demand e Forecast Awards (Mean Case) Operator Forecast Awarded 18
19 # Subsea Tree Awards Top 10 Operators Preferred Supplier Relationships Top Ops Forecast Awards e Preferred Supplier Analysis Demand Operator Aker FTI GEOG 1SS 19
20 Subsea Tree Install Base Aftermarket Services 20
21 # Subsea Trees (Mean Case) Average Water Depth (Feet) Global Subsea Trees by Decade Average Water Depth Proxy for Deepwater Drilling & Development Activity Subsea & Related Hardware Components Production Umbilicals ROV Services & MarCon (URF Install) Subsea Workover & Intervention Opportunities 's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's Startup Decade 0 Number of New Subsea Wells Average Water Depth (Feet) 21
22 # Subsea Tree Startups (Mean Case) Top Operator Subsea Tree Startup Comparison Vs e Subsea Tree Startups forecast to be ~5% down in compared to previous six years. Despite strong order levels driving demand, low oil price and delayed projects are limiting installation, completion and commissioning executions in the short-term. Projects are not cancelled so the back-log of subsea trees for future startups remain an opportunity when market conditions improve. Operator e 22
23 Who is Quest Offshore? Quest is a boutique strategic advisory and consulting firm to the Oil & Gas industry worldwide. Quest provides market expertise, strategic analysis, marketing communication and consultancy services focused primarily on deepwater oil & gas specifically technology-led solutions for exploration, development and exploitation activities. Quest possesses a dedicated team of sector specialists that focus on qualitative and quantitative data to identify global market opportunities for deepwater technologies. Quest covers worldwide deepwater basins and follows projects from exploration through project decommissioning. Quest Consulting Quest is a leading source for valuable, client-directed consulting products and expertise that enables companies to make wellinformed decisions across the offshore oil & gas industry. Quest Offshore s Consultancy Practice has grown considerably as an extension of our comprehensive market analysis, accurate forecasting and industry expertise honed through our leading database subscription products. Quest has completed over 100 consulting projects focusing on areas such as due diligence, strategic advisory to new and existing supply chain companies, regulatory and economic impact studies, supply chain studies for operators, reorganization, and the provision of industry experts. Who are Quest s Clients? Over 20 major, independent and national oil companies Over 50 major supply chain companies Numerous smaller suppliers to the offshore oil & gas business Over 120 financial clients including investment banks covering oilfield services from buy and sell sides, institutional investors, private equity firms and more Industry organizations like the American Petroleum Institute and the National Ocean Industries Association Who are Some Examples? Analyzing the equipment and service pricing outlook for operators developing deepwater projects Analyzing existing production asset purchases for independent oil companies Providing market due diligence for debt financings, private equity purchase and initial public offerings of marine contractors Analyzing the economic impacts of government regulations and policies and providing testimony to the Congress, Senate and various regulators
24 Thank you! Paul Hillegeist, President & COO Caitlin Shaw, Sr. Director Research, Data Division 77 Sugar Creek Center Blvd, Suite 500 Sugar Land, TX USA Sean Shafer, Consulting Manager Leslie Cook, Sr. Research Consultant Contact us! 24
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