Decision criteria for IOR-projects

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1 Decision criteria for IOR-projects by Petter Osmundsen University of Stavanger Business Opportunities and Challenges in Mature Fields NPF Stavanger, April 16-17,

2 Project stoppers for IOR/EOR Conflict between short-term and narrow KPIs and long term value creation Insufficient funds for R&D and testing of new technology Lack of option pricing of flexibility when choosing development concepts Organisational obstacles High rates of return requirements

3 Injection of natural gas Inject gas today Increased oil production later A large fraction of the gas is recovered, but NPV loss Economic evaluation Investments: wells, injectors, topside installations etc Today s gas flow must be traded off against future oil and gas flows Discounting Gas price trend Development in oil versus gas price Must be evaluated relative to alternatives Infill wells Injection of e.g. water, nitrogen, soap or chemicals or a combination Measurement problems Hard to establish causalities Osmundsen, P. (2012), Lower gas prices open window for improving oil recovery, proceedings, International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), Venice, September 9-12,

4 Relative price development for oil and gas: a window of opportunity for IOR Brent/NBP Gas price is down So far, we see a clear price convergence over time If drop in gas prices is perceived as temporary Calls for gas injection to increase oil production Dahl, R.E, Oglend, A., Osmundsen, P. and M. Sikveland (2012), Are oil and natural gas going separate ways in the UK? Cointegration tests with Structural shifts, Journal of Energy Markets 5, 2, Asche, F., Oglend, A. og P. Osmundsen (2012), The structure of the oil/gas price relationship, proceedings, International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), Venice, September 9-12,

5 Real options in development concept Real options in platform-based developments versus subsea Flexible drainage strategy Recovery rate, % Facility Subsea Technical flexibility, greater potential Year Financial flexibility, lower marginal costs for extra measures Lower operational risk 7 percentage points= 22 per cent. Data: NPD 200 Percentage deviation in recovery rate Greater regularity Per cent Percentage deviation subsea versus platform Osmundsen, P. (2012), "Choice of Development Concept Platform or Subsea Solution? Implications for the Recovery Factor", forthcoming in Oil & Gas Facilities (SPE). Year

6 Few large field pilots Obstacle to innovation Field pilots Hard to get new technologies implemented Explanations Decentralised decisions structure and incentives Do not internalise all benefits Penalised for short term loss of production Fewer large sponsor fields for new technology Hard to establish causalities Limitations in reservoir models Decision analysis A field pilot is an option New information obtained at relative low cost Analogous to exploration Petter.Osmundsen@uis.no

7 Statements from technology suppliers Catch-22 experiences with oil companies When approaching the R&D department they are referred to a petroleum license When approaching the petroleum license they are referred to the R&D department Suggestions for new technology must be put forward at least six months before the next year s budget process Takes at least 18 months from an oil company finds new technology interesting before it can support it At that time the internal supporter of the technology has moved to another position Petter.Osmundsen@uis.no

8 Statements from technology suppliers, cont. Oil companies are eager to spend billions on exploration but have trouble finding millions for an EOR pilot Challenging to sell improvements that can generate billions of extra revenue Straight forward to sell technology that saves a few hundred thousand New technology is sourced in via the procurement department Seems only concerned about cost, not revenue Petter.Osmundsen@uis.no

9 Potential remedies in the companies Make sure that various types of investments projects are treated consistently Introduce KPI for IOR in the oil companies and/or adjust other KPIs in projects with pilots Make sure that IOR objectives are reflected in the organisational design Improve reservoir simulations models Make sure that plans for EOR are in place from day one Much more expensive and less effective afterwards Option values

10 Government. Multiple measures necessary Strengthen MPE and NPD Insufficient resources to cope with new tasks Budgets less than the payments by the Pension Fund to one external fund manager Strengthen Petoro Not happened Strengthen government support for R&D Grants have been cut Entering of companies specialised in tail production Not happened, or not to a large extent Changing special Norwegian rules or practice for oil rigs Does not happen Adjusting the offshore shifts to the international standard Does not happen Changing the equity shares and voting rules in mature fields Does not happen Tax changes for large, mature fields? Petter.Osmundsen@uis.no

11 Sufficient incentives? IOR is losing the competition for investments and personnel Towards exploration Towards other resource countries Lack of effort in IOR at the NCS necessitates a review of the incentive structure Taxes UK brown field tax Olsen, T. and P. Osmundsen (2011), "Multinationals, tax competition and outside options", forthcoming in Journal of Public Economics. Olsen, T. and P. Osmundsen (2003), "Spillovers and International Competition for Investments", Journal of International Economics 59.

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