3Q03 Silicon Wafer Update: Demand Continues Recovery

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1 Gartner Dataquest Alert 3Q03 Silicon Wafer Update: Demand Continues Recovery The latest silicon forecast indicates that silicon wafer demand will grow 10 percent in 2003 over the previous year. This is up 4 percentage points over the previous forecast in May 2003, reflecting the relative strong improvement in first-quarter shipments and taking into account actual demand in 2002 and the formal results of Gartner Dataquest's silicon wafer market survey. Essentially, the latest forecast assumes that wafer demand maintains a moderate recovery course, as indicated in the previous forecast, but we have yet to catch sight of a clear and sustainable upward trend. Demand Forecast for 2003: Annual 10 Percent Increase Expected The lackluster microeconomic environment kept electronics production and demand, together with semiconductor device demand, hovering low, and wafer demand entered a stagnation phase in the third quarter of Given the sluggishness of the markets, coupled with negative impacts anticipated from the war in Iraq and an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the previous forecast expected that wafer demand in the first quarter would remain more or less unchanged from the preceding quarter, albeit some improvement from the previous declining trend. In the first quarter, demand turned upward stronger than expected, resulting in a 4 percent increase over the preceding quarter. Nevertheless, Gartner Dataquest believes that demand growth is not yet supported by a clear driver and we need more clear signs to judge if that demand will move to a strong, sustainable recovery path. In fact, analysis of the first-quarter demand indicates a still-declining trend in the first half, followed by a sudden jump in the final month because of seasonal factors. Therefore, Gartner Dataquest's official forecast of the semiconductor demand market in the second quarter assumes some uncertainties about semiconductor demand in the second half of 2003, and it's most likely case is an 8 percent increase over the previous year (see "2Q03 Update: Global Semiconductor Forecast Scenarios," SEMC-WW-DP-0284). The upcoming view might be optimistic; however, we have not judged that a full-fledged recovery in wafer demand is assured at this moment. Based on these assumptions and the semiconductor forecast, wafer demand will be affected by moderate device demand and will continue a moderate recovery, with some ups and downs as a monthly base. Then, in the second half of this year, it will enter a sustainable recovery path. Key factors for driving wafer demand in the second half of 2003 are summarized as follows: Semiconductor demand driven by specific fast-growing markets, such as digital cellular phones, flat-panel displays and digital appliances, particularly flash memory, liquid crystal display (LCD) driver and digital signal processing (DSP) 10 July Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1

2 The rise in 300-mm wafer demand with the ramp up of 300-mm fab projects that are either in the pilot or initial production stage, in which wafer consumption is bloated because of a high percentage of testing and monitoring applications A moderate upturn of corporate IT investment as a result of an improved microeconomic environment, particularly the purchase of office PCs, including replacements Figure 1 shows the quarterly forecast of future wafer demand. In the beginning of the second quarter, demand still lacked strength. Although it is expected to pick up in the middle of the second quarter as device demand gains momentum in preparation for the year-end shopping season, growth will be relatively moderate up 8 percent over the first quarter compared with the strength seen during the full-fledged recoveries in the past. Meanwhile, fundamentals are expected to improve, with an anticipated recovery of device demand that accompanies the comeback of electronics demand especially PCs as part of a better microeconomic environment. Furthermore, reinvigorated 300-mm fab projects will drive 300-mm wafer demand. Altogether, total wafer demand will gradually show a sustainable recovery trend in the second half of The present forecast indicates that wafer demand in 2003 will grow 10 percent over the previous year to reach 5,261 million square inches (MSIs) the most likely case. On the other hand, the best case scenario assumes that wafer demand will record double-digit growth over the first quarter as a sustainable recovery of device demand becomes visible and will move to a full-fledged recovery phase, resulting in an annual growth rate of 14 percent. In contrast, the worst case scenario assumes that the device demand recession will persist and cause negative growth during the second and third quarters, forcing the wafer industry to make short-term inventory adjustments. According to Gartner Dataquest's survey, wafer inventory started to decline in 2003 but remains at a relatively high level. If investment adjustment occurs, it will restrain wafer shipments and demand will experience negative growth of 2 percent on an annualized basis. 10 July Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2

3 Figure 1 Quarterly Silicon Demand Profile by Scenarios Millions of Square Inches 1,800 1,600 1,400 Most Likely Case Best Case Worst Case 1,200 1, Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2003) Expansion Will Resume in 2004 Total semiconductor units shipped for a three-month average are now less than 10 percent from a peak in We anticipate the indicator during 2003 to exceed the peak of Therefore, the present forecast will not differ from the previous one in that wafer demand will see a new expansion period in With demand recoveries expected in several applications, including PCs, electronic equipment demand will start a sustainable recovery in the second half of Release of pent-up demand for electronic equipment relating to IT investment in the area of communication infrastructure will provide further fuel in 2004, causing semiconductor sales to soar 23 percent to reach $206.7 billion. Resumed growth in device demand will definitely have positive impacts on semiconductor production. Average fab capacity utilization will cross the 85 percent mark in the fourth quarter of 2003 and will further rise in 2004, exceeding 90 percent in the second half. This will create solid demand for wafers. In particular, leading-edge fabs already operating above 85 percent will serve as a major engine for wafer demand growth. As a risk for thewafervendors,asuddenriseinwaferdemandwillprovokeatightsupplyandeclipsethe potential for wafer sales. 10 July Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 3

4 Meanwhile, the 300-mm wafer ramp will accelerate further in It has been steadily growing to the average demand level of 260,000 wafers per month in the second quarter of It will then reach 400,000 wafers in the fourth quarter of According to Gartner Dataquest's fab database, 12 projects will be launched in 2004 in addition to the expansion of existing capacities, thus marking a full takeoff of 300-mm wafer demand. Under the present forecast, demand will reach 600,000 wafers per month by the end of 2004, including test and monitoring applications. As a result, wafer demand in 2004 will welcome an expansion phase and will record an annual growth rate of 23 percent, reaching 6,452 MSIs. Up to the first half of 2005, device demand and its healthy growth will feed a sufficient impetus for wafer demand. Then, as device demand is expected to enter a down cycle in the second half of 2005, wafer demand will also soften. However, the revenue impact will be mitigated by an initial demand ramp up that will come from 300-mm fabs in their startup stage, not to mention the contribution made by firm device demand in the first half. As a result, double-digit growth of 11 percent will be maintained in In 2006, a downturn in the device market will take its toll on wafer demand, which will maintain moderate single-digit growth in 2006 and Semiconductor investment will again plummet to double-digit negative growth and fab activities will be curtailed to slow down growth of 300-mm demand in In 2008, wafer demand should revive, driven by strengthening device demand. At that time, wafer demand for leading-device production will shift to 300-mm wafer, so that the rise in activity relating to next-generation devices will accelerate growth of 300-mm demand. In all, wafer demand in 2008 will regain momentum and return to double-digit growth at 11 percent. Figure 2 presents our wafer demand forecast up through Gartner Dataquest predicts that demand will record a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 10 percent between 2002 and 2008, reaching 8,440 MSIs in July Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 4

5 Figure 2 Silicon Wafer Demand Forecast, Millions of Square Inches 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2003) Gartner Dataquest Perspective The latest demand outlook is somewhat improved over our earlier forecast, albeit the speed of recovery remains muted. During the second half of 2003, silicon wafer demand will enter a sustainable recovery phase moderately, fueled by device demand in the upward cycle, and will resume expansion in Unfortunately, however, this recovery scenario is by no means free from uncertainty and actual demand will undergo fluctuations, necessitating vendors to be resilient in meeting demand. Also, price trends should be watched carefully. According to the results of a survey conducted by Gartner Dataquest in the first quarter of 2003, wafer prices dropped appreciably during the past year. In particular, the average selling price (ASP) of the flagship 200-mm wafer sagged more than 10 percent. Furthermore, the next-generation 300-mm wafer, for which demand has just started ramping up, is already facing intensive price competition and creating price pressure. The latest forecast takes into account price trends and has made slight downward adjustments to the value-based figures, as compared with the previous forecast. The latest demand outlook indicates that the wafer market will achieve a CAGR of 11 percent on a value basis between 2002 and 2008, reaching $10.7 billion in Finally, regional trends are characterized by the re-emergence of Japanese device vendors, which have mostly completed their restructuring efforts after a serious slump in the recent few years and regaining strength to strike back. In 2003, Japanese companies are expected to boost capital spending by 25 percent to 30 percent over the previous year. As for 300-mm fab projects that have been delayed in comparison with other regions, Elpida, Sony and Toshiba have rolled out their construction projects, and other vendors may make similar moves soon. This is a definite plus for 10 July Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 5

6 wafer demand in Japan. In an addition to this positive movement, the fundamental demand for devices in cellular phones and digital consumer appliances is expected to grow in the midterm. The present outlook does not show any sign of slowing down the megatrends relating to regional distribution of wafer demand (for example, the shift of electronics production outside of Japan and a decline in Japan's share because of the rise in outsourcing ratio). Nevertheless, as the latest forecast has updated a long-term demand outlook for the Japanese market, wafer demand in Japan is expected to record a CAGR of 8 percent during the six-year period up to 2008, while demand in the Asia/Pacific CAGR is 13 percent over the period. By Takashi Ogawa This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: SEMC-WW-DA-0097 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: The content herein is often based on late-breaking events whose sources are believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The conclusions, projections and recommendations represent Gartner's initial analysis. As a result, our positions are subject to refinements or major changes as Gartner analysts gather more information and perform further analysis. Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden

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